Draft and UDFA Thread 2017-18

[Ori]

Yeah, our farm was ranked 29th in the league before the summer window, and we climbed 6 spots with Chytil & Lias. I`ve mention this in other topics too and it will be important in the future to keep our 1st.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Um it's a third round pick. Every third round pick is a gamble.

Not according some of to these armchair GMs

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Um it's a third round pick. Every third round pick is a gamble.

That doesn't excuse the recent track record.

Besides, this is an outdated way of thinking. It's not 1993 or 2001 or 2009. Teams are drafting for players to become readily available and the average age of an NHL player is plummeting. You will see that the number of 3rd rounders from 2015 or 2016 who move on to the NHL and produce will dwarf previous years.

The strategy behind drafting Day was flawed. If they wanted a puck mover with size and speed, they could have found a bunch in later rounds, and ones without massive on and off-ice baggage. This isn't hindsight. I mocked Day to Ottawa in the 3rd after predicting the Sens had already drafted Brown in the 1st and Taylor Raddysh in the 2nd -- Ottawa took winger Jonathan Dahlen instead.

And wouldn't you know -- the Sens in the 5th took puck mover Max Lajoie, who I mocked to the Rangers in the 4th. The Sens could afford to gamble on a risky finesse defenseman like Lajoie (who is having a good season as an AHL rookie) because they already made two home run picks. The Rangers didn't have that luxury but went for a massive home run anyway. Right now it's looking like an infield hit at best.

They should have treated that pick as a late 1st rounder, and history has proven you don't make the draft's biggest question mark (and he was) the centerpiece of your draft.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

The other thing worth noting is that NHL GMs care less about post-draft CHL stats. That's why you barely see CHL players traded as part of a prospect package. Teams want proven commodities from either elite leagues, the AHL or the NHL.

I love stats as much as anybody, but a real indicator on how well you've drafted is how your prospect pool is viewed. That's why Nashville was able to get Turris without giving up a 1st -- Kamenev and Girard were proven prospects beyond junior.

As much as we love Ty Ronning, nobody is banging down Gorton's door to acquire him.

If you draft NHL or AHL-proven players in later rounds, then those picks become the substitute for 1st round picks. If you noticed, it wasn't until 1995 -- his seventh draft -- when Neil Smith traded a 1st round pick, and that was a great trade for Verbeek. He was able to build a Stanley Cup champion without having to trade any high picks. Steven Rice (not Nicholls) got us Messier. Mallette got us Graves. Dahlen got us Gartner. Roman Oksiuta got us Lowe. Marchant got us MacTavish.

Gorton had to give up what is looking like a high 2nd in a great draft to acquire a pending UFA in Brendan Smith. Why couldn't he instead add Graves? Or Zborovskiy? Or Day? Reunanen? Gropp? Fontaine? Ronning?

Bet the farm it's because Detroit wanted no part of that junk. Also bet the farm that 38th or 41st pick in 2018 becomes a better NHL player than any one of the aforementioned players Gorton drafted between 2015 and 2016.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It's amazing nobody hired you yet to be the GM. Apparently you have it all figured out

 

[Ori]

I remember you was sceptical when Stepan was traded @Amazing Kreiderman do u still dislike the move, or do you agree it will be a bumpy season due to transition year and we will be stronger when Lias can participate in NHL maybe as early as next year?

I am curious, because I felt u usually defended Stepan to keep him in what players to move before that trade move happened last summer? I also remember Bernmeister was critized for mention Stepan in a similar move long before it really happen months before Gorton decided to move him for future.

I can disagree with @bernmeister on certain topics concerning Zucc, but I will personal give him credits to see that trade in months in advance.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I remember you was sceptical when Stepan was traded @Amazing Kreiderman do u still dislike the move, or do you agree it will be a bumpy season due to transition year and we will be stronger when Lias can participate in NHL maybe as early as next year?

I am curious, because I felt u usually defended Stepan to keep him in what players to move before that trade move happened last summer? I also remember Bernmeister was critized for mention Stepan in a similar move long before it really happen months before Gorton decided to move him for future.

I can disagree with @bernmeister on certain topics concerning Zucc, but I will personal give him credits to see that trade in months in advance.

I was not happy with the trade at the time, because I felt it would set us back down the middle (Which it did). Hayes has done better than I anticipated though. Stepan is a 1C who plays all situations, all 3 zones and brings leadership. I honestly feel he was more instrumental in that department than McDonagh. He defended Skjei by standing up to Lundqvist. It really feels he was the glue that held things together and should have been the captain.

I am extremely happy we got a top 10 pick but DeAngelo being the other piece in that trade just didn't do it for me. I wanted one of Dvorak/Fischer/Keller (Even though Keller was highly unlikely).

 

[Ori]

I can understand that - if Gorton traded Zucc I will probably not be happy and sad for a while partly because I like the player and he is from same country. But if it`s a good future and move for Rangers I am still a fan of the franchise. I won`t follow the player to a new NHL franchise in the future even though I probably update myself concerning the Zucc as a person and player. He also represent the country too with hopefully new ice halls and better org. system for future youths and hockey in Norway.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

NYR drafted well in the 2016 draft, that's all i got to say on that.

On Day's 5v5 numbers, i'm waiting for Josh Khalfins trends, Day's been a very good 5v5 producer earlier in his OHL career FYI.

"The Rangers didn't treat that 3rd round pick like they should of -- that pick was their personal 1st rounder and should have been treated as a piece to draft a player who was going to play in the NHL for many years regardless of role.

The Rangers were not in a position to gamble in 2016. "

Very much disagree with this. There are no certain NHLers in the 3rd round, when your first pick is late 3rd and you don't have many picks you swing for the fences, NYR did that and i'm very happy with that.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I am just waiting to see Alfons Malmstrom, Jordan Sambrook and Mattias Elfstrom turn into studs, because apparently Detroit drafts so well

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

I think saying that NYR drafted badly in 2016 is ignorant and completely ignores where they picked and how many times they picked.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think saying that NYR drafted badly in 2016 is ignorant and completely ignores where they picked and how many times they picked.

Yeah, but that way of thinking is wrong because apparently we could have drafted an NHL ready player in the 3rd round. Somehow 75% of the GMs don't know this because otherwise the 3rd round would be full of guaranteed NHL-ers every year.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

I think it's funny that you (@Steve Kournianos ) is shitting on NYR's 2016 draft when you had Gettinger and Ronning mocked in the 4th and all the players you mocked to NYR are trending worse then the players NYR picked since the draft. Though to be fair it's tough to judge Shvyryov since i doubt he's getting any ice time in the KHL and he's doing well everywhere else and Murray seems to be doing OK, rest are trending down though and i'll take any of NYR's picks in that draft over any of the others you mocked to NYR.

Edit: For the record, i think you're doing a great job with your site (as i've said before), i just think you're overly critical of NYRs drafting, especially 2016.

 

[UnSandvich]

Day is 15th among OHL D in P/GP. In a 20 team league, that sits him at a lower-end 1D. Of the 14 guys above him, 3 play for one team (SSM Greyhounds), and 2 play for another (London Knights). He's never been known for huge point production totals either.

On Windsor as a whole (not just D), he's 4th in Pts, 3rd in P/GP, 4th in shots, 3rd in PPA. Windsor is 2nd in the OHL with a PP% of 25.7%. I'd say he's doing very well so far this season.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I think it's funny that you (@Steve Kournianos ) is ****ting on NYR's 2016 draft when you had Gettinger and Ronning mocked in the 4th and all the players you mocked to NYR are trending worse then the players NYR picked since the draft. Though to be fair it's tough to judge Shvyryov since i doubt he's getting any ice time in the KHL and he's doing well everywhere else and Murray seems to be doing OK, rest are trending down though and i'll take any of NYR's picks in that draft over any of the others you mocked to NYR.

Edit: For the record, i think you're doing a great job with your site (as i've said before), i just think you're overly critical of NYRs drafting, especially 2016.

My 2016 Rangers mock:

Lajoie is in the AHL putting up points, running Belleville's PP , had a great camp but clearly is behind Karlsson and Chabot on the depth chart. Reunanen is in the SM-Liiga and never plays. Lajoie is bigger, faster and the better prospect.

Shvyryov is in the KHL and recently turned 19. Gettinger is in the OHL. Shvyryov was one of the top scorers in the MHL. Shvyryov is the better prospect.

Jaaska is hurt but was a depth player in the SM-Liiga. Fontaine has 2 goals in 19 AHL games but just got promoted to a bigger role. Both fringe two-way forwards. Wash.

Limoges was one of the top scorers and set-up men in the USHL last year. And he led Team USA in scoring at the WJAC. He's having a solid freshman season. Ronning is having a great season but it's his fifth in the WHL. Way easier to score in the CHL than in the NCAA. I think Limoges' size and playmaking make him the better prospect but I'll call this a wash.

Murray in his 3rd OHL season outproduces Day at 5v5 but plays about 4-6 mins less a game. Doesnt get Day's zone starts or PP time. Day has higher upside but like Ronning it's his 5th CHL season and is far from dominating. Slight advantage to Day but I think Murray turns out to be better and is ahead of Day developmentally.

Sorry. I'll keep my picks.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Pronman graded all teams 2015 drafts, we got last place, we got an "F".

New York Rangers: F
This seems like a very forgettable draft class for New York even though they didn’t have a first-round pick. Second-round pick Ryan Gropp is an OK winger. He skates well, can shoot and has a nice frame, but his skill and instincts aren’t great. The 62nd-overall pick, Robin Kovacs, is no longer part of the organization. Defenseman Sergey Zborovskiy, in the ECHL, is an OK prospect, but not one I’m holding out hope for. Arguably their best pick was Aleksi Saarela at 89th overall, currently in Carolina’s system, but even he is just a fine offensive player who is by no means an NHL lock. I do believe in goalie Adam Huska to an extent, as he has decent athleticism for his 6-foot-3 frame and is smart, but he has just been OK as a sophomore.

Pronman: Grading the 2015 NHL draft class

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Your picks vs NYR's closest pick.

Shvyvryov vs Day: Tough to judge MHL vs OHL imo and D vs C but i'd say it's pretty close to a wash, both high upside, both unlikely to reach their upside.

Lajoie vs Reunanen: Edge to Lajoie.

Murray vs Gettinger: Murray is picking it up this season but last season he was a below league average producer, meanwhile Gettinger is a very strong 5v5 producer and a very good shot generator with great size showing steady progression. Edge Gettinger

Yakovenko vs Fontaine: Kinda tough to compare but Fontaine had a strong 16/17 season captaining the Huskies while Yakovenko played but didn't produce at all in the VHL. This year looks mostly the same for Yakovenko while Fontaine has had issues getting going in the AHL, though to be fair he's been stuck on the 4th line with Selleck... Possible Yakovenko has had similar issues though which i'm unaware of, i'd take Fontaine.

Limoges vs Ronning: I'd give the edge to Ronning but i could definitely see the argument for a wash. Ronning produced at roughly the same rate on his ATO in the AHL as Limoges is doing now in the NCAA though and Ronning does lead the entire CHL in SOG/GP while being close to G/GP, clearly leading his team (as he should as an overager).

Bonus: Jääskä vs Wall: Wall is having a rough time right now but i'd say his very impressive 16/17 season keeps him ahead of Jääskä.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Your picks vs NYR's closest pick.

Shvyvryov vs Day: Tough to judge MHL vs OHL imo and D vs C but i'd say it's pretty close to a wash, both high upside, both unlikely to reach their upside.

Lajoie vs Reunanen: Edge to Lajoie.

Murray vs Gettinger: Murray is picking it up this season but last season he was a below league average producer, meanwhile Gettinger is a very strong 5v5 producer and a very good shot generator with great size showing steady progression. Edge Gettinger

Yakovenko vs Fontaine: Kinda tough to compare but Fontaine had a strong 16/17 season captaining the Huskies while Yakovenko played but didn't produce at all in the VHL. This year looks mostly the same for Yakovenko while Fontaine has had issues getting going in the AHL, though to be fair he's been stuck on the 4th line with Selleck... Possible Yakovenko has had similar issues though which i'm unaware of, i'd take Fontaine.

Limoges vs Ronning: I'd give the edge to Ronning but i could definitely see the argument for a wash. Ronning produced at roughly the same rate on his ATO in the AHL as Limoges is doing now in the NCAA though and Ronning does lead the entire CHL in SOG/GP while being close to G/GP, clearly leading his team (as he should as an overager).

Bonus: Jääskä vs Wall: Wall is having a rough time right now but i'd say his very impressive 16/17 season keeps him ahead of Jääskä.

We can go back and forth on opinions as I disagree with your assessments and reasoning. You're comparing defensemen to forwards and forwards to goalies from a developmental standpoint.

I'm predicting that the Rangers' 2016 draft will not produce quality NHL skaters for a third straight year. You obviously like it, and use 4th and 5th-year CHL stats to validate it. Ask any fan on here from 1997-2004 and they'll tell you that slope is more slippery than you think.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Disagreeing is fine, not sure why you have to have such a tone while doing it and being so condescending all the time? Seems unnecessary.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Day is 15th among OHL D in P/GP. In a 20 team league, that sits him at a lower-end 1D. Of the 14 guys above him, 3 play for one team (SSM Greyhounds), and 2 play for another (London Knights). He's never been known for huge point production totals either.

On Windsor as a whole (not just D), he's 4th in Pts, 3rd in P/GP, 4th in shots, 3rd in PPA. Windsor is 2nd in the OHL with a PP% of 25.7%. I'd say he's doing very well so far this season.

Oh so now Total P/G matter more than 5v5? Why wasn't Mittelstadt afforded the same luxury when he was leading the USHL in scoring?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

One of the draft's best goal scorers, and he plays defense.

 

[UnSandvich]

Oh so now Total P/G matter more than 5v5? Why wasn't Mittelstadt afforded the same luxury when he was leading the USHL in scoring?

So wait...what you're saying is context DOES matter?

 

[Steve Kournianos]

So wait...what you're saying is context DOES matter?

Apples and oranges.

 

[UnSandvich]

Apples and oranges.

Before you were saying that context doesn't matter. Now you're saying it does.

If I'm reading this right, what you're really saying is "Context only matters when I say it does"

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

One of the draft's best goal scorers, and he plays defense.

I think he's a lock for 3rd behind Dahlin and Svechnikov