DR: 14 Deep...Is he right?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by sushinsky4tsar, May 18, 2006.

  1. sushinsky4tsar

    sushinsky4tsar Registered User

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    I came across a Pioneer Press article the o/ day where Doug was asked about his impressions of this draft. He basically said that it wasn't deep, but deep enough.

    The interesting part was that he quantified his assessment, "there are 14 players we would be thrilled to have....we think we have a good shot (w/ #9 and potentially #17) at getting two."

    This is interesting, because if I was in charge of making a draft board for the Wild, I think I would have a definite top 14, w/ a bit of a drop after:

    1.E. Johnson
    2.Backstrom
    3.Staal
    4.Toews
    5.Kessel
    6.Mueller
    7.Brassard
    8.Okposo
    9.Tlusty
    10.Frolik
    11.Little
    12.Sheppard
    13.Sanguinetti
    14.Stewart

    In fact, I might say that this has been a concensus top 14 in many of the mock drafts (ignoring the order).

    So my questions are:

    1) Do you agree that there is a clear cut group of 14? Do you agree with the 14 players I have listed? Keep in mind that the '14' is somewhat based on the fact that the Wild might have the #17 pick. I also think there is a concensus top pick, a top 5 or 6, a top 8, and a top 12 within this group of 14.

    2) I find it hard to believe my top 14, is going to match a GM's top 14. Especially considering Risebrough has gone off the board before. Three players on this list that I could potentially see not being on DR's top 14 are Frolik, Sanguinetti, and Stewart. Who are 3 "outside" players you could see being on the Wild's radar? Marcinko, Kana, Berglund, Grabner, Summers, McBain, Fischer, Wishart...

    3) "14 players we would be thrilled to get" v. 14 lottery teams.....any coincidence?

    4) it's post-draft and the Wild only come up w/ one of the 14...how many GM's would flat out lie and say the second pick was one the 14 players they were going to be thrilled to get?
     
  2. King'sPawn

    King'sPawn Enjoy the chaos

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    1. No... as much as we'd like to believe, there is no clear cut anything.
    2. No idea. I'm sure they saw a lot of OHL players while keeping track of Pouliot, so those would be the first ones on my list of possible "outsiders" looking in.
    3. Purely coincidence, in my opinion.
    4. I'm sure they'll give a positive spin on it in one way or another... and frankly, they should be happy that their top 14 players are being taken. It means that their scouts are picking players that obviously have talent and potential in the eyes of other organizations. That should leave them feeling good about their second pick being #15.
     
  3. firstroundbust

    firstroundbust lacks explosiveness

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    It was Tommy Thompson who said that, not Risebrough.


    sorry to nitpick.
     
  4. sushinsky4tsar

    sushinsky4tsar Registered User

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    d'oh! My mistake, it was really late.
     
  5. Corona-12

    Corona-12 Registered User

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    Personally I don't think there is a for sure number one, nor 5. Maybe 6 on the nose.

    But yes, the draft is probably about 16 good players deep.
     
  6. zoomba

    zoomba Registered User

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    I think to say 14 players have distinguished themselves as the top group is innacurate. In this draft especially I think we will see a lot of surprises int he first round. There have been a lot of players moving up and down the draft rankings all year and you know that some teams have players that they are set on picking regardless of where they are rated. This year I don't think anything is for sure,
     
  7. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    I would say that it is pretty safe to say that there are tiers in this draft. The first is Johnson alone in most scouts eyes but not that far everyone else as most seem to think. Certainly not as clear cut as say Crosby was last year. Just a slight edge if one at all. I would put Kessel in that top tier tied with Johnson. Next comes a tier of two or three, depending on your view: Staal, Toews and Backtrom. Again the separation between those three and the top two is not great. Then there is a consensus drop off where there is a definate space and a significant one. That includes most of the rest on the list above. After about 10-14 though supposedly the draft falls off the table to the floor. I have seen references to most picks after that spot being second rounders most years, and not high ones but mid to low ones.
     
  8. shveik

    shveik Registered User

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    That has been my impression as well. My list has 16 players that I classify as 1st round talent, then it's 2nd round. I am not saying that people picking at let's say 25 would get a bad prospect, it's just going to be a prospect with more than usual question marks. Or some teams may opt for a more sure prospect with a lower ceiling with their 1st rounder. So I expect plenty of surprise picks in the 1st round, similar to 2002 draft.
     
  9. monster_bertuzzi

    monster_bertuzzi registered user

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    There is not a ''significant'' drop off from Staal/Toews/Backstrom to guys like Mueller, Brassard, and Frolik. In fact, in my opinion Jordan Staal has the bloodlines of a top 5 pick, the frame of a top 5 pick, but the hands of a top 20 pick.

    Tier one
    Eric Johnson
    Phil Kessel

    Tier two
    Jon Toews
    Mike Frolik
    Peter Mueller
    Jordan Staal
    Derrick Brassard
    Jiri Tlusty
    Nicklas Backstrom
    Kyle Okposo

    Tier 3
    James Sheppard
    Bryan Little
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2006
  10. Chrisd

    Chrisd Registered User

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    edited...

    I like it now. :)
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2006
  11. monster_bertuzzi

    monster_bertuzzi registered user

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    Forgot em', will add him to tier 2. ;)
     
  12. Chrisd

    Chrisd Registered User

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    how does a jiri tlusty compare to a olesz or milan michael in there draft year.

    Were those 2 clearly more talented then tlusty...anyone have an opinion on that?
     
  13. RightKinger

    RightKinger Registered User

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    I agree. I think this will be a very exciting draft.
     
  14. Blane Youngblood

    Blane Youngblood Registered User

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    I think being that several scouting services have Kessel outside the top 4 would indicate he is not in a tier ahead of Toews and Staal or even Brassard. Also, Okposo, Frolik, and Tlusty have not clearly seperated themselves from Sheppard and Little. I'd argue that we at HF boards have a tough time forgetting preliminary rankings and that Kessel really may be 6, and Frolik may be out of the top 15, and that Staal may go #1 or #2.
     

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