Does anyone else worry a little bit about Canada after 2022?

[Big Phil]

Okay, here is the suspected team for 2022. Let's say there isn't a World Cup in 2020 and our next big tournament is 2022. Canada is still going to be crazy stacked, but as you will see, not everyone is young anymore and it makes me wonder a bit about 2026 and how Canada will be on paper vs. other countries since the U.S. is improving in strides by the looks of it. Right now pretty much half of the NHL is still Canadian. 47% with 25% American and 10% Swedish being the next highest. That's a bit of a change from 20 years ago when Canada had 61% to the Americans 16%. The country improving the most is U.S. They'll be solid in 2022 and a team to look out for but I think we'll be fine. Here is a projected team with their ages 4 years from now.

Benn (32) - McDavid (24) - Seguin (29)
Hall (30) - Crosby (34) - Marner (24)
Tavares (31) - Scheifele (28) - Stamkos (31)
Marchand (33) - Toews (33) - MacKinnon (26)
Giroux (33)

Rielly (27) - Doughty (32)
Ekblad (25) - Letang (34)
Hamilton (28) - Pietrangelo (31)
Subban (32)

Price (34)
Murray (27)
Holtby (32)

Okay so look, that team is pretty darn good still. Still some of the golden era players there mixed in with some youth. However, in 4 years how does this look? Up front is where I am thinking specifically as well as in net. Heck, even on defense now that I think of it. But up front who is replacing these guys? So far the ones you think should aren't there yet. Reinhart, Bennett, neither have really stepped up. Monahan is alright but will he ever be elite? I will agree that we never know who is going to burst out and there could be someone drafted in 2020 who is a phenom that makes this team, we don't know yet. But out of the 13 forwards only 5 of them are under 30. On defense do the youngsters make up for the older guys when they are gone? And what about Price? Who is the Canadian goalie that will step up?

All of this will probably be answered soon enough, I realize that, but will we have a line up that will over power the Americans who have a lot of young talent?

Click to read more...

 

[JackSlater]

Inevitably some players will emerge unexpectedly, and of course the key players from 226 (for instance) could be adolescents right now, but I agree that things don't look very good. I do think that Hockey Canada should take a look at development now instead of waiting until young talent is a glaring issue like in 1998. I liked the step to have kids play width-wise but more can be done. Affordability is the biggest issue I see. Getting non-traditional hockey communities involved is a big thing too given changing demographics. I am optimistic on this front seeing three Asian-Canadian players competing for WJC spots this year.

Compare the Canadian players drafted from 2003-2010 to the players from 2011-2018 (projection for 2018). There is a big gap, even when considering that the more recent players have had less time to establish themselves.

 

[jj cale]

I'm concerned for sure. It is the last few drafts that are becoming worrying. I mean, is there even 2 guys from Canada that are projected to go in the top ten this year?

Troublesome times.

 

[kudla]

Funny reading canadians worrying about their hockey future

 

[Zegras Zebra]

To be optimistic Canada is Canada!

Of course there are many factors that could threaten Canadian dominance internationally already mentioned such as more American and European players playing in the NHL, a few years of weak drafts from a Canadian talent perspective, and 5 years or so of disappointing World Junior performances. Even so there is still so much more quality Canadians in the NHL that other countries can't compete on paper even if projections indicate that there will be less Canadians in the NHL as a percentage in 2022 and beyond compared to every other country.

Affordability is an issue which affects every hockey player worldwide, and isn't just a Canadian issue. However I agree that Hockey Canada does need to do more to make the game affordable for lower middle class families and those below that level of socioeconomic status, and promote the game to people who culturally aren't as exposed to the game even in Canada. However participation numbers will most likely still be higher in Canada than in the U.S.A by that point, especially in the AAA and above levels and above which produce our countries NHLers.

I'm sure people were concerned about Canada's dominance during the 1970's and 1980's when the Soviet Union was challenging Canada for hockey supremacy but Canada was still always great during those eras. Since the NHL started participating at the Winter Olympics every "Power 6" nation has made the final at least once, even those without a roster of 100% NHL players. The Olympics (and to a lesser extent the World Cup) are single elimination contests in the playoff rounds so its completely reasonable for a stacked Canadian squad to be upset by a hot goalie (ex. Hasek 1998). Even if Canada has one bad tournament it isn't the end of the world, although it may seem like it for a day or two.

Even if Canada doesn't turn out a generational talent to replace Crosby as he ages as long as we keep pumping out players at the Stamkos, Taveres, Seguin level no other country will challenge us in the near future, even the Americans with their young talent. We will be fine!

 

[jj cale]

Funny reading canadians worrying about their hockey future

What's funny about that?

We are concerned because we care.

Is that an issue?

 

[Xokkeu]

I'm much more concerned it won't matter at all what Canada looks like in 2022.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Here is Canada's team of players who turn 24 this year or are younger. A little projecting with some of these players.

Marner-McDavid-MacKinnon
Huberdeau-Scheifele-Drouin
Point-Jost-Barzal
PLD-Horvat-Patrick
Monahan

Chabot-Ekblad
Chychrun-Parayko
Rielly-Hamilton
Byram

Murray
Hart

 

[Big Phil]

Maybe it will be okay, who knows. McDavid is 20, so what is there to be worried about right? It isn't as if there isn't a generational talent there for the next 15 years. All I know is that 2022 will still be stacked and there needs to be players to replace them.

Maybe Hockey Canada should focus more on actually producing Canadian talent rather than the bottom line ($). Stuff like keeping the junior leagues Canadian only (Don Cherry wasn't whistling Dixie when he said that) and making the game more blue collar and middle class again.

Not to mention, at least at the World Junior level the politics involved in picking the teams. If the best players are out west, so be it. I don't care if Ontario or Quebec have less players. Or vice versa.

 

[Hasa92]

I have no doubt that team Canada wouldn't be loaded with talent with superstar for decades to come... however The us prospects and their program looks so promising that USA might dethrone Canada somewhere around 2020-2030 at least temporarily...

Canada should take note from the American program, it might already be inevitable that the Americans would be the nr. 1 hockey nation in a few years but if Canadian hockey want's to prevent that or at least take their spot back as soon as possible, they should start now.

 

[JackSlater]

I'm much more concerned it won't matter at all what Canada looks like in 2022.

True. There are reports of course that the NHL is quite open to 2022 and 2016 (if Calgary or another North American city gets the Olympics) but who knows. They opened up a can of worms by not going this year.

Maybe it will be okay, who knows. McDavid is 20, so what is there to be worried about right? It isn't as if there isn't a generational talent there for the next 15 years. All I know is that 2022 will still be stacked and there needs to be players to replace them.

Maybe Hockey Canada should focus more on actually producing Canadian talent rather than the bottom line ($). Stuff like keeping the junior leagues Canadian only (Don Cherry wasn't whistling Dixie when he said that) and making the game more blue collar and middle class again.

Not to mention, at least at the World Junior level the politics involved in picking the teams. If the best players are out west, so be it. I don't care if Ontario or Quebec have less players. Or vice versa.

I don't really agree with the only Canadians in the CHL idea. Canadian players get better when they play against better players, and opening up the league to non-Canadians makes the level of the average player higher. Removing the non-Canadians and replacing them with low end Canadians doesn't help develop players.

As for the politics in WJC selection, I see this complaint often but I rarely ever actually see it. Being from Atlantic Canada I've never heard it discussed, but online people from Ontario (mostly) and the west bring it up. I am curious to hear about instances of these politics. I know that it generally pertains to Q players in the eyes of these people.

 

[Big Phil]

I have no doubt that team Canada wouldn't be loaded with talent with superstar for decades to come... however The us prospects and their program looks so promising that USA might dethrone Canada somewhere around 2020-2030 at least temporarily...

Canada should take note from the American program, it might already be inevitable that the Americans would be the nr. 1 hockey nation in a few years but if Canadian hockey want's to prevent that or at least take their spot back as soon as possible, they should start now.

They did it to us in 1996. I'll admit even in 1991 I looked at their roster and sort of did a nod as if to say "Hmmm, they are improving". But we had Gretzky and Lemieux and a supposed heir apparent in Lindros. No one was worried in 1991. In 1996 I was. That was a good roster and in 1998 it was too. For a very brief time the Americans could ice a roster with their best that looked very close to Canada. Then that generation got older and they haven't been there since, for now.

I don't really agree with the only Canadians in the CHL idea. Canadian players get better when they play against better players, and opening up the league to non-Canadians makes the level of the average player higher. Removing the non-Canadians and replacing them with low end Canadians doesn't help develop players.

As for the politics in WJC selection, I see this complaint often but I rarely ever actually see it. Being from Atlantic Canada I've never heard it discussed, but online people from Ontario (mostly) and the west bring it up. I am curious to hear about instances of these politics. I know that it generally pertains to Q players in the eyes of these people.

Americans being in the CHL is not a problem because we do send our guys to the NCAA and U.S. Colleges in the States. Paul Kariya, Jonathan Toews, among others come to mind of course. So Americans will always be part of the CHL. I mean overseas. Because Canada'a program used to sort of be a top secret thing. It was always one of those things where you saw the heart of a Canadian player being able to go that extra mile. I think this is why we got those last minute goals in older tournaments or came back in 1972. At the end of the day it always seemed like Canadians would be the ones that made comebacks more likely.

The question to be asked is would there be a Canadian or two that missed out his chance because the needed fielded European players?

Right now I don't think the issue is Europeans for the future. Sweden has a good defense, but that's about it. Russia's best players are all getting older. Really the only future threat I can see is the Americans.

 

[jj cale]

They did it to us in 1996. I'll admit even in 1991 I looked at their roster and sort of did a nod as if to say "Hmmm, they are improving". But we had Gretzky and Lemieux and a supposed heir apparent in Lindros. No one was worried in 1991. In 1996 I was. That was a good roster and in 1998 it was too. For a very brief time the Americans could ice a roster with their best that looked very close to Canada. Then that generation got older and they haven't been there since, for now.



Americans being in the CHL is not a problem because we do send our guys to the NCAA and U.S. Colleges in the States. Paul Kariya, Jonathan Toews, among others come to mind of course. So Americans will always be part of the CHL. I mean overseas. Because Canada'a program used to sort of be a top secret thing. It was always one of those things where you saw the heart of a Canadian player being able to go that extra mile. I think this is why we got those last minute goals in older tournaments or came back in 1972. At the end of the day it always seemed like Canadians would be the ones that made comebacks more likely.

The question to be asked is would there be a Canadian or two that missed out his chance because the needed fielded European players?

Right now I don't think the issue is Europeans for the future. Sweden has a good defense, but that's about it. Russia's best players are all getting older. Really the only future threat I can see is the Americans.

The Finns will be a tough out in the coming years at the senior level in best on best, tons of great young guys with great potential up front and on the backend and goaltending will continue to be good.

 

[kcin94]

Okay, here is the suspected team for 2022. Let's say there isn't a World Cup in 2020 and our next big tournament is 2022. Canada is still going to be crazy stacked, but as you will see, not everyone is young anymore and it makes me wonder a bit about 2026 and how Canada will be on paper vs. other countries since the U.S. is improving in strides by the looks of it. Right now pretty much half of the NHL is still Canadian. 47% with 25% American and 10% Swedish being the next highest. That's a bit of a change from 20 years ago when Canada had 61% to the Americans 16%. The country improving the most is U.S. They'll be solid in 2022 and a team to look out for but I think we'll be fine. Here is a projected team with their ages 4 years from now.

Benn (32) - McDavid (24) - Seguin (29)
Hall (30) - Crosby (34) - Marner (24)
Tavares (31) - Scheifele (28) - Stamkos (31)
Marchand (33) - Toews (33) - MacKinnon (26)
Giroux (33)

Rielly (27) - Doughty (32)
Ekblad (25) - Letang (34)
Hamilton (28) - Pietrangelo (31)
Subban (32)

Price (34)
Murray (27)
Holtby (32)

Okay so look, that team is pretty darn good still. Still some of the golden era players there mixed in with some youth. However, in 4 years how does this look? Up front is where I am thinking specifically as well as in net. Heck, even on defense now that I think of it. But up front who is replacing these guys? So far the ones you think should aren't there yet. Reinhart, Bennett, neither have really stepped up. Monahan is alright but will he ever be elite? I will agree that we never know who is going to burst out and there could be someone drafted in 2020 who is a phenom that makes this team, we don't know yet. But out of the 13 forwards only 5 of them are under 30. On defense do the youngsters make up for the older guys when they are gone? And what about Price? Who is the Canadian goalie that will step up?

All of this will probably be answered soon enough, I realize that, but will we have a line up that will over power the Americans who have a lot of young talent?

What are other countries going to look like in 2026? I bet none of them know either since it's 8-9 years away.

 

[Xokkeu]

What are other countries going to look like in 2026? I bet none of them know either since it's 8-9 years away.

I feel good about the USA team in 2026

Mathews, Eichel, Werenski, Keller etc all still under 30.

Canada will be fine too I'm sure. It's the European teams that you wonder about because their production is much more cyclical.

 

[JackSlater]

Americans being in the CHL is not a problem because we do send our guys to the NCAA and U.S. Colleges in the States. Paul Kariya, Jonathan Toews, among others come to mind of course. So Americans will always be part of the CHL. I mean overseas. Because Canada'a program used to sort of be a top secret thing. It was always one of those things where you saw the heart of a Canadian player being able to go that extra mile. I think this is why we got those last minute goals in older tournaments or came back in 1972. At the end of the day it always seemed like Canadians would be the ones that made comebacks more likely.

The question to be asked is would there be a Canadian or two that missed out his chance because the needed fielded European players?

Right now I don't think the issue is Europeans for the future. Sweden has a good defense, but that's about it. Russia's best players are all getting older. Really the only future threat I can see is the Americans.

I don't think that the "heart" you refer to is necessarily due to the CHL. The drive you are talking about generally is either there or isn't before a player reaches that level. As far as one or two Canadians missing out on those spots due to Europeans, honestly if they weren't good enough to make their CHL team before the last two spots with how big the CHL is, then I highly doubt that they were going to amount to much. There are also alternative routes like junior A that are perfectly fine. I like having most of Canada's best players playing against the best players they can when in major junior, and adding European players helps.

I agree that USA is the issue for Canada going forward. Hockey Canada should look into solutions now though as the draft already indicates that there is a problem.

 

[Erikfromfin]

What are other countries going to look like in 2026? I bet none of them know either since it's 8-9 years away.

Impossible to predict but these guys are the ones I like atm with knowledge up to 2021 draft class. (Theyre age at 2026).

Mikael Granlund(34) - Aleksander Barkov(31) - Patrik Laine(28)
Kaapo Kakko(25) - Henrik Borgström(29) - Eeli Tolvanen(27)
Sebastian Aho(29) - Rasmus Kupari(26) - Jesse Puljujärvi(28)
Kristian Vesalainen(27) - Henri Nikkanen(25) - Mikko Rantanen(30)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi(26)
Oliver Suni(24)

Miro Heiskanen(27) - Rasmus Ristolainen(32)
Christoffer Sedoff(24) - Juuso Välimäki(28)
Urho Vaakanainen(27) - Eemeli Räsänen(27)
Olli Juolevi(28)
Anttoni Honka(26)

Juuse Saros(31)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen(27)
Ville Husso(31)

Other notables

Forwards:
Joel Armia(33)
Joonas Donskoi(34)
Aleksi Heponiemi(27)
Roope Hintz(30)
Joni Ikonen(27)
Kasperi Kapanen(30)
Janne Kuokkanen(28)
Artturi Lehkonen(31)
Anton Lundell(25)
Matias Maccelli(26)
Aatu Räty(24)
Antti Saarela(25)
Kasper Simontaival(24)
Teuvo Teräväinen(32)
Jesse Ylönen(27)

Defenders:
Julius Honka(30)
Henri Jokiharju(27)
Kasper Kotkansalo(28)
Esa Lindell(32)
Olli Määttä(32)
Topi Niemelä(24)
Sami Niku(30)
Kasper Puutio(24)
Ruben Rafkin(24)
Vili Saarijärvi(29)
Robin Salo(28)
Sami Vatanen(35)

Goalies:
Justus Annunen(26)
Kaapo Kähkönen(30)

 

[Big Phil]

What are other countries going to look like in 2026? I bet none of them know either since it's 8-9 years away.

No, that's fair. It is a bit of a guess at times. Rico Fata was on many people's list to crack the 2002 team. I can proudly say that in 1998 when these sort of mock teams were happening I liked Eric Brewer on there. I was very impressed with him in junior so I figured he might be ready in 2002 and he was.

 

[Big Phil]

I guess I might also be forgetting Jonathan Huberdeau who is bursting out quite nicely. Actually he was the last couple of years if not for injuries. Jonathan Drouin is possible as well. I guess we don't really know how great these players will be until it happens.

Does Cale Makar have the makings of a smooth offensive defensemen at the NHL-star caliber?

 

[Eternal Leaf]

That's way too far down the road.

8-9 years ago, McDavid was 12.

 

[canuck2010]

I feel good about the USA team in 2026

Mathews, Eichel, Werenski, Keller etc all still under 30.

Interesting that you include Eichel in that group. I'm less enthused about him now than when he came into the league. Big on the other guys though.

 

[Xokkeu]

He's on a terrible team but still putting up some decent numbers. Was dynamite late in the year last year after a Terrible injury slowed him down at the beginning and now even with the sabres a disaster on pace for 65 points

 

[TheBeastCoast]

This is kind of silly. Canada is on a string of some weaker drafts. Canada has had weak draft years before....it is happening now. 2019 and 2020 are looking much better on that front. I don't see a lot of point though in trying to project a team 5-6 years down the road when there could be some kid playing Bantam hockey right now that would change the game entirely and some of the players you listed probably will fall off a cliff.

 

[Xokkeu]

This is kind of silly. Canada is on a string of some weaker drafts. Canada has had weak draft years before....it is happening now. 2019 and 2020 are looking much better on that front. I don't see a lot of point though in trying to project a team 5-6 years down the road when there could be some kid playing Bantam hockey right now that would change the game entirely and some of the players you listed probably will fall off a cliff.

Lol Auston Matthews was playing for a Ukrainian pee wee team about this same time period ago

 

[Puck Dogg]

Canada has large talent pool, and there's players who need only few good seasons to take them to another level. Couple of examples are Nugent-Hopkins and Courturier, who aren't still in their prime years but have potential to step their game up a notch. Also, if there is a new child prodigy somewhere, and is supposed to be in 2024 in his 20's, he would not be now more than about 14 years old.

The OP showed that even if none of that happened, Canada would be still stacked after four more years with only the current players they now have. It really doesn't look that concerning to me.