HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
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Do the stats support the idea of winning and losing streaks ? (aka Momentum)
- Thread starter HamiltonNHL
- Start date
HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
- 20,831
- 11,336
HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
- 20,831
- 11,336
Winning Streaks in Sports and the Misperception of Momentum.
Winning Streaks in Sports and the Misperception of Momentum.
Human nature likes order; people find it hard to accept the idea of randomness. People search for patterns among random events wherever they occur. Malkiel (1996) cites examples of stock market technical analysts assigning elaborate descriptions to alleged patterns of price movements of stocks, when the patterns were in reality randomly generated by tossing a coin. When events do come in clusters and streaks, people look for explanations even though clustering patterns occur frequently even in processes as random as tossing a coin. Such biases in judgments have been observed in many fields (see Nisbett and Ross, 1980; Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein, 1981; and Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky, 1982).
Despite the results of this research, winning in baseball, basketball and other sports is not simply a random event. They are games of skill and the better teams win more often than the inferior teams. Indeed, Table 2 shows that there are relatively longer winning and losing streaks in the NBA than in MLB. However, the longer streaks are the result of comparatively larger differences in team strengths between the strong and weak teams in basketball than in baseball. In MLB, no team won more than 62% or less than 32% of its games, whereas 17 NBA teams were above or below those values. Thus, winning and losing streaks do occur and occasionally grow long. However, the data demonstrate that such streaks are no more frequent or persistent than would occur by chance, given teams' overall strengths.
The research such as is reported here, or any other research, cannot prove the nonexistence of a phenomenon of momentum. The most that can be claimed is that a broad examination of results show a pattern that is consistent with its non-existence. Unless such patterns of results are discovered, one is strongly tempted to conclude that while momentum is widely accepted as a phenomenon by sport participants, fans and observers, it is more myth than reality. If it does exist at all, it is of such a low strength that it is almost equally balanced by the phenomena of positive inhibition and negative facilitation.
Perhaps it is time to conclude that momentum is mostly myth. When faced with losing streaks, coaches and players should realize that such streaks do occur occasionally quite naturally and are not necessarily due to poor performance resulting from a loss of confidence due to recent losses. In professional sports, losing streaks sometimes result in the firing of coaches, which may be action that is unjustified. Similarly, when riding the crest of a winning streak, players and coaches should realize that such streaks are part of the ebb and flow of sports' seasons. This would help alleviate the over-confidence that such streaks bring, which may lead to less focused practice and game preparation.
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If Momentum in sports is a "factor" then it likely is super small.
Winning Streaks in Sports and the Misperception of Momentum.
Human nature likes order; people find it hard to accept the idea of randomness. People search for patterns among random events wherever they occur. Malkiel (1996) cites examples of stock market technical analysts assigning elaborate descriptions to alleged patterns of price movements of stocks, when the patterns were in reality randomly generated by tossing a coin. When events do come in clusters and streaks, people look for explanations even though clustering patterns occur frequently even in processes as random as tossing a coin. Such biases in judgments have been observed in many fields (see Nisbett and Ross, 1980; Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein, 1981; and Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky, 1982).
Despite the results of this research, winning in baseball, basketball and other sports is not simply a random event. They are games of skill and the better teams win more often than the inferior teams. Indeed, Table 2 shows that there are relatively longer winning and losing streaks in the NBA than in MLB. However, the longer streaks are the result of comparatively larger differences in team strengths between the strong and weak teams in basketball than in baseball. In MLB, no team won more than 62% or less than 32% of its games, whereas 17 NBA teams were above or below those values. Thus, winning and losing streaks do occur and occasionally grow long. However, the data demonstrate that such streaks are no more frequent or persistent than would occur by chance, given teams' overall strengths.
The research such as is reported here, or any other research, cannot prove the nonexistence of a phenomenon of momentum. The most that can be claimed is that a broad examination of results show a pattern that is consistent with its non-existence. Unless such patterns of results are discovered, one is strongly tempted to conclude that while momentum is widely accepted as a phenomenon by sport participants, fans and observers, it is more myth than reality. If it does exist at all, it is of such a low strength that it is almost equally balanced by the phenomena of positive inhibition and negative facilitation.
Perhaps it is time to conclude that momentum is mostly myth. When faced with losing streaks, coaches and players should realize that such streaks do occur occasionally quite naturally and are not necessarily due to poor performance resulting from a loss of confidence due to recent losses. In professional sports, losing streaks sometimes result in the firing of coaches, which may be action that is unjustified. Similarly, when riding the crest of a winning streak, players and coaches should realize that such streaks are part of the ebb and flow of sports' seasons. This would help alleviate the over-confidence that such streaks bring, which may lead to less focused practice and game preparation.
------------------------------------
If Momentum in sports is a "factor" then it likely is super small.
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