Doctor No
Registered User
As I mentioned in the other thread, I've put together a reasonably simple division simulator, and I'm going to post results and perturbations resulting from that here.
Underlying this:
For each scenario, I'll be running 10,000 simulated seasons.
I'm using a Log5 win probability system to determine the probability of winning a game when two teams of varying strengths play (you can Google what this is, but it's sufficient here to note that the Log5 function is the only function shape that is consistent with - for example - a 75% team beating a 100% team never, beating a 50% team 75% of the time, and beating a 0% team always). I then add on a loser point a given percentage of the time (user input).
I can set number of division and non-division games in the model.
Underlying this:
For each scenario, I'll be running 10,000 simulated seasons.
I'm using a Log5 win probability system to determine the probability of winning a game when two teams of varying strengths play (you can Google what this is, but it's sufficient here to note that the Log5 function is the only function shape that is consistent with - for example - a 75% team beating a 100% team never, beating a 50% team 75% of the time, and beating a 0% team always). I then add on a loser point a given percentage of the time (user input).
I can set number of division and non-division games in the model.