Devils goalie dissection thread

[Nubmer6]

There WAS a time in the first half of the season where we EXPECTED him to give up a weak goal every game. Just sayin'

 

[MadDevil]

The offense was bailing him out in October. But from November up until the Buffalo game he gave up 2 or less goals in 13 of 21 games, 3 goals in 5 games, and 3 or more goals in 3 games.

Kinkaid is 4-3 when he's given up exactly 3 goals. Cory is 4-6-1. Cory has 1 win when giving up more than 3 goals, while Kinkaid actually has 4 wins while giving up more than 3 goals. So overall Kinkaid has 8 wins when giving up 3 or more goals, compared to Cory's 5. Seems to me the offense has bailed Kinkaid out more often than it has Cory.

 

[haak84]

The offense was bailing him out in October. But from November up until the Buffalo game he gave up 2 or less goals in 13 of 21 games, 3 goals in 5 games, and 3 or more goals in 3 games.

Interestingly both goalies are actually 4-1 in games they've given up exactly 3 goals. Cory has zero wins when giving up more than 3 goals, while Kinkaid actually has 4 wins while giving up more than 3 goals. So overall Kinkaid has 8 wins when giving up 3 or more goals, compared to Cory's 4. Seems to me the offense has bailed Kinkaid out more often than it has Cory.

Kinkaid is 4-3 on games he's started and giving up 3 goals. He's 4-5-1 on games he's giving up more than 3 goals.

He is 11-2-1 on games where he's giving up =< 2.

 

[MadDevil]

Jesus Christ I can't read tonight. You're right, he is 4-3.

 

[haak84]

Schneider is 5-6-1 on games he's giving up 3 goals.

He is 2-8-2 on games he's giving up more than 3 goals.

He is 10-1-3 on games where he's giving up =< 2.

 

[haak84]

So the Devils as a team with either goalie in net:

=< 2
21-3-4

exactly 3
9-9-1

over 3
6-13-3

Seems about right when you consider league average is 3 GPG per team.

 

[MadDevil]

Schneider is 5-6-1 on games he's giving up 3 goals.

He is 2-8-2 on games he's giving up more than 3 goals.

He is 10-1-3 on games where he's giving up =< 2.

Technically he actually has 1 win when giving up 3 or more. Kinkaid got the decision in one of those games And he's 11-1-3 when giving up 2 or less.

 

[Emperoreddy]

That still shows that Keith has been bailed out more by the offense, even if it is only like two games more.

Otherwise those records seem par for the course. We win when they are on, we lose when they aren’t.

Goaltending across the board needs to be more consistent next year.

14 games with 3+ goals for both goalies is way way way too much.

 

[haak84]

Technically he actually has 1 win when giving up 3 or more. Kinkaid got the decision in one of those games And he's 11-1-3 when giving up 2 or less.

Ok well it still sounds about right. Cory still has 24 games with 3+ goals and his record reflects that. As I've stated the Devils are an average team, across the board, if they would have received above average goaltending they might be slightly above average. If they received Vezina goaltending then they would be in the race for the Metro.

 

[haak84]

That still shows that Keith has been bailed out more by the offense, even if it is only like two games more.

Otherwise those records seem par for the course. We win when they are on, we lose when they aren’t.

I don't know if I agree with that. I don't think he was bailed out in Montreal so much as the Devils let off the gas. I don't think he was bailed out in Vegas either. In the Chicago game, he got off to a slow start and then shut the door when Chi was swarming and it was a contest.

In the Montreal/Vegas games he played well enough and did not allow a deflating goal until the game was wide open. But sure I guess because they scored 21 goals in those 3 games you would think goaltending wasn't a factor but the momentum would say otherwise. Hence, why it's difficult to judge goalies based on compiled stats.

 

[MadDevil]

Ok well it still sounds about right. Cory still has 24 games with 3+ goals and his record reflects that. As I've stated the Devils are an average team, across the board, if they would have received above average goaltending they might be slightly above average. If they received Vezina goaltending then they would be in the race for the Metro.

That's fair. They've both been far too up and down this year when we really could use a consistent performance from them. It's also crap timing that Cory is at his worst while Kinkaid is at his best. It would be nice if Cory could at least not be terrifyingly awful right now.

 

[haak84]

Looking at the compiled stats- this average Devils team has received average goaltending from their duo. Cory was hotter in Nov/Dec. Kinkaid in Feb/March. They both sucked when the other was hot and they've been average outside of that.

For me, the onus was on Cory to carry the team, so I'm a bit harder on him. But now that I look at him as a capable 1a instead of a Vezina #1, it's just a matter of him playing up to the lowered expectations.

edit: before people say they've been below average...

They're GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average)
Kinkaid: +4.5
Schneider: +6.1

 

[Emperoreddy]

That's fair. They've both been far too up and down this year when we really could use a consistent performance from them. It's also crap timing that Cory is at his worst while Kinkaid is at his best. It would be nice if Cory could at least not be terrifyingly awful right now.

Was there ever a point when both were on this year?

 

[haak84]

I think that is more of a sympton of having a named starter as opposed to having a starter by committee. I think they would do better if they were 1a/1b and alternating starts as opposed to riding the hot hand.

 

[MadDevil]

Was there ever a point when both were on this year?

Probably not.

The weird thing is you'd think by sheer luck alone Cory would have won one of these last 11 games. I mean, how many times this season have we joked that we win more when getting outshot, or how many times we've looked like crap but pulled a win out of our asses? Yet Cory has had none of that luck since late December.

And before somebody says it, I'm not excusing Cory's poor play. He's deserved most of the losses on this streak with poorly timed bad goals, but he's also had no luck lately either.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Probably not.

The weird thing is you'd think by sheer luck alone Cory would have won one of these last 11 games. I mean, how many times this season have we joked that we win more when getting outshot, or how many times we've looked like crap but pulled a win out of our asses? Yet Cory has had none of that luck since late December.

And before somebody says it, I'm not excusing Cory's poor play. He's deserved most of the losses on this streak with poorly timed bad goals, but he's also had no luck lately either.

Well look at how poor his luck was for the first few games of this stretch. All games where the winning goal was removed on a challenge.

Keith lost a game in that stretch he didn’t deserve too with Dallas.

 

[haak84]

Goalies are so f***ing crazy because the margin between being good and bad rides a lot on luck. They are like a strung out gambler when things aren't going their way and the most cocky compulsive person when they are.

 

[JimEIV]

Was there ever a point when both were on this year?

October they were both good. If you remember scoring was wacky the first couple months of the season...so the save percentage might look like it's not up to snuff but it's not really as bad as it looks

October.
Cory 5-1 .909
Keith 3-1 .910

 

[haak84]

October they were both good. If you remember scoring was wacky the first couple months of the season...so the save percentage might look like it's not up to snuff but it's not really as bad as it looks

October.
Cory 5-1 .909
Keith 3-1 .910

They were average. Our offense just happened to be way above average. As it went to below average and average, the goalies remained... average.

 

[bobilly45]

Looking at the compiled stats- this average Devils team has received average goaltending from their duo. Cory was hotter in Nov/Dec. Kinkaid in Feb/March. They both sucked when the other was hot and they've been average outside of that.

For me, the onus was on Cory to carry the team, so I'm a bit harder on him. But now that I look at him as a capable 1a instead of a Vezina #1, it's just a matter of him playing up to the lowered expectations.

edit: before people say they've been below average...

They're GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average)
Kinkaid: +4.5
Schneider: +6.1

Too many b.s. stats that don't judge the goalie as a player. Too many b.s. stats in sports period..

 

[bobilly45]

There WAS a time in the first half of the season where we EXPECTED him to give up a weak goal every game. Just sayin'

Only difference is now we expect 2 per game from cory... hence why he's not starting tomorrow according to one of our Twitter guys

 

[haak84]

Too many b.s. stats that don't judge the goalie as a player. Too many b.s. stats in sports period..

not sure I follow. All of the stats point to the goalies (relative to the rest of the goalies this season) being average. The eye test confirms they've had swings but have leveled out as average.

 

[bobilly45]

not sure I follow. All of the stats point to the goalies (relative to the rest of the goalies this season) being average. The eye test confirms they've had swings but have leveled out as average.

The eye test is the only way to judge a goalies performance imo. Kk was slumping earlier and has since rebounded nicely . Cory has always been an avg goalie, but one could argue that over the last 2 seasons he's been slightly below average (not including this slump).
The one thing the stats don't have a way to measuer is the key save, the timely save if you will (besides wins/loss the only stat that would mean anything). You can have great stats on paper with the save % but still be a bad goalie if you can't come up with the big save at the right time, or in pressure situations. Imo a good goalie finds ways to make those saves the majority of the time....and for a while that has not been cs.
Kk has shown flashes in the past that he could make big saves, now since becoming the starter he's doing it more often leading to him winning more (offense helps, but he also helps himself out)

 

[None Shall Pass]

I'm still pretty positive some sort of injury or ailment is bothering Cory. You can see it when he's playing if you look hard enough.

Right now, you ride Kinky because he's on fire.

 

[haak84]

The eye test is the only way to judge a goalies performance imo. Kk was slumping earlier and has since rebounded nicely . Cory has always been an avg goalie, but one could argue that over the last 2 seasons he's been slightly below average (not including this slump).
The one thing the stats don't have a way to measuer is the key save, the timely save if you will (besides wins/loss the only stat that would mean anything). You can have great stats on paper with the save % but still be a bad goalie if you can't come up with the big save at the right time, or in pressure situations. Imo a good goalie finds ways to make those saves the majority of the time....and for a while that has not been cs.
Kk has shown flashes in the past that he could make big saves, now since becoming the starter he's doing it more often leading to him winning more (offense helps, but he also helps himself out)

I mostly agree. I just think that comes down to style of play. Kinkaid is more hybrid and a much more situational goaltender. Cory is a rate goalie. He is going to stop x amount of shots regardless of in game situation and it will even out over time. He optimizes every decision for best expected outcome. To get extremely philosophical or stupid, Kinkaid plays goalie with a more human element, Schneider plays with a more Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning element.