Defensemen - Career Even Strength Goals Against

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by chooch*, Aug 20, 2006.

  1. chooch*

    chooch* Guest

    Does anyone have a list of the most? And on an average per games played?
     
  2. reckoning

    reckoning Registered User

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    I`m sure pnep has the career numbers, but year-by-year:

    `68- Gary Bergman 103
    `69- Carol Vadnais 108
    `70- Doug Roberts 110
    `71- Doug Roberts 114
    `72- Gilles Marotte 118
    `73- Jocelyn Guevremont 130
    `74- Barry Gibbs 109
    `75- Jean Hamel 123
    `76- Carol Vadnais 127
    `77- Carol Vadnais 112
    `78- Dennis Owchar 141
    `79- Barry Gibbs 125
    `80- Rick LaPointe 126
    `81- Dave Babych 139
    `82- Dave Babych 129
    `83- Dave Babych 124
    `84- Dave Babych 131
    `85- Dave Babych 121
    `86- Gary Nylund 137
    `87- Doug Lidster 128
    `88- Al Iafrate 100
    `89- Paul Coffey 117
    `90- Paul Coffey 140
    `91- Paul Coffey 114
    `92- Brian Leetch 89
    `93- Kevin Hatcher 113
    `94- Gary Dineen 102
    `95- Darryl Sydor/Dave Manson 55
    `96- Roman Hamrlik 88
    `97- Roman Hamrlik 88
    `98- Brian Leetch 95
    `99- Stephane Quintal 83
    `00- Yannick Tremblay/Bryan McCabe 79
    `01- Brian Leetch 108
    `02- Sandis Ozolinsh 81
    `03- Luke Richardson 80
    `04- Dick Tarnstrom 85
    `06- Karlis Skrastins 81
     
  3. Evil Speaker

    Evil Speaker Registered

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    Where did you get this information?
     
  4. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Defensemen with the most ES Goals Against

    Name GP ESGA GAPG
    Paul Coffey 1409 1654 1.17
    Larry Murphy 1615 1541 0.95
    Ray Bourque 1612 1458 0.90
    Dave Babych 1195 1422 1.19
    Scott Stevens 1597 1399 0.88
    Phil Housley 1495 1386 0.93
    Borje Salming 1148 1356 1.18
    Larry Robinson 1384 1297 0.94
    Carol Vadnais 1076 1281 1.19
    Rob Ramage 1044 1214 1.16
    Randy Carlyle 1055 1208 1.15
    Reed Larson 904 1180 1.31
    Kevin Hatcher 1157 1165 1.01
    Al MacInnis 1413 1146 0.81
    Gordie Roberts 1097 1135 1.03
    Phil Russell 1016 1124 1.11
    Brian Leetch 1072 1120 1.04
    Doug Wilson 1024 1109 1.08
    Chris Chelios 1326 1106 0.83
    Brad Park 1113 1098 0.99
    Dave Ellett 1129 1081 0.96
    Bob Murray 1202 1072 0.89
    Ron Greschner 982 1043 1.06
    Ron Stackhouse 889 1036 1.17
    Kevin Lowe 1254 1033 0.82


    Defensemen with the most ES Goals Against Per-Game

    Name GP ESGA GAPG
    Bill Mikkelson 147 240 1.63
    Bob Stewart 575 783 1.36
    Larry Johnston 320 427 1.33
    Doug Roberts 259 340 1.31
    Jack Lynch 382 500 1.31
    Reed Larson 904 1180 1.31
    Dennis Patterson 138 179 1.30
    Willie Huber 655 849 1.30
    Gilles Marotte 690 889 1.29
    Dennis Owchar 288 361 1.25
    Ian Turnbull 628 785 1.25
    Tapio Levo 107 133 1.24
    Gary Bergman 649 803 1.24
    Barry Wilkins 417 506 1.21
    Leo Boivin 211 256 1.21
    Norm Barnes 156 189 1.21
    Barry Long 280 339 1.21
    Mark Renaud 152 184 1.21
    Doug Barrie 158 191 1.21
    Dave Burrows 724 875 1.21
    Brad Maxwell 612 738 1.21
    Peter Scamurra 132 159 1.20
    Mike Christie 412 492 1.19
    Carol Vadnais 1076 1281 1.19
    Dave Babych 1195 1422 1.19


    Defensemen with the fewest ES Goals Against Per-Game

    Name GP ESGA GAPG
    Gerry Odrowski 116 24 0.21
    Scott Ferguson 151 47 0.31
    Wade Belak 186 63 0.34
    Jamie Huscroft 352 125 0.36
    Gord Donnelly 273 98 0.36
    Maxim Kuznetsov 120 44 0.37
    Rick Berry 132 49 0.37
    Shawn Heins 108 41 0.38
    Cam Russell 396 154 0.39
    Paul Laus 351 138 0.39
    Sami Helenius 122 49 0.40
    Rudy Poeschek 232 94 0.41
    Jason Strudwick 309 129 0.42
    Bryan Helmer 117 49 0.42
    Chris McAllister 255 108 0.42
    Pascal Trepanier 229 97 0.42
    Dennis Vial 212 90 0.42
    Dale Purinton 141 61 0.43
    Enrico Ciccone 374 162 0.43
    Andreas Lilja 101 45 0.45
    John Jakopin 113 51 0.45
    Francois Leroux 199 90 0.45
    Jamie Rivers 340 154 0.45
    Brad Lukowich 294 134 0.46
    Kent Carlson 113 52 0.46

    ====

    I think there's some interesting stuff buried deep within the data here, but it's pretty useless without significant work. Here are the major problems:

    1. Ice time should be taken into account. For example, Chris Pronger is at 0.77 goals-against per game, while Wade Belak is at 0.34. This implies that Belak is much better defensively than Pronger, which is ridiculous. However, once you take into account the fact that Pronger plays around 2.5 or 3 times as many minutes as Belak, you see that Pronger is much better defensively.

    2. You can't compare across eras without major adjustments. A player on the ice for 1 goal per game is pretty brutal in the 2000's but would have been elite in the 1980's.

    3. You can't compare across teams without major adjustments (taking into account both the strength of the goaltending and the strength of the player's teammates). A player on the ice for 1 goal per game would be awful on, say, the '76 Canadiens, but amazing on the '76 Caps.

    4. This doesn't consider the quality of minutes played. Top defensive blueliners will face better offensive players, which artificially inflates the number of goals they're on the ice for.

    ==

    The numbers for some notable defensemen (keeping in mind all the warnings I stated above):

    Name GP ESGA GPG
    Keith Carney 729 469 0.64
    Ken Daneyko 1283 857 0.67
    Adam Foote 726 512 0.71
    Brad McCrimmon 1222 879 0.72
    Scott Niedermayer 811 599 0.74
    Glen Wesley 1173 883 0.75
    Chris Pronger 642 494 0.77
    Eric Desjardins 1050 808 0.77
    Rod Langway 994 781 0.79
    Sergei Zubov 779 619 0.79
    Derian Hatcher 827 661 0.80
    Nicklas Lidstrom 935 750 0.80
    Al MacInnis 1413 1146 0.81
    Chris Chelios 1326 1106 0.83
    Bobby Orr 596 519 0.87
    Scott Stevens 1597 1399 0.88
    Mark Howe 929 820 0.88
    Sandis Ozolinsh 743 661 0.89
    Ray Bourque 1612 1458 0.90
    Rob Blake 829 760 0.92
    J.C. Tremblay 358 331 0.92
    Denis Potvin 1060 982 0.93
    Phil Housley 1495 1386 0.93
    Pierre Pilote 143 133 0.93
    Larry Robinson 1384 1297 0.94
    Serge Savard 1038 976 0.94
    Larry Murphy 1615 1541 0.95
    Guy Lapointe 884 852 0.96
    Brad Park 1113 1098 0.99
    Brian Leetch 1072 1120 1.04
    Doug Wilson 1024 1109 1.08
    Al Iafrate 799 884 1.11
    Randy Carlyle 1055 1208 1.15
    Paul Coffey 1409 1654 1.17
    Borje Salming 1148 1356 1.18
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2006
  5. #66

    #66 Registered User

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    Great work as usual Outsider!!! Plus its good to hear your thoughts behind the stats too.
     
  6. Lecavilier_4

    Lecavilier_4 Registered User

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    Wade Belak 186 63 0.34

    Wow... Wade Belak. According to these stats he is a defensive mastermind!
     
  7. The_Human_Atombomb

    The_Human_Atombomb Registered User

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    This should be like the GAA for goalies, projected to 60 minutes. Then it would make sense to use this stat to compare defensemen to each other.
     
  8. reckoning

    reckoning Registered User

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    There`a file on the Hockey Analysis Group on Yahoo with all the +/- raw data from `68-`03. The Total Hockey Encyclopedias have all the information as well. Apparently the league kept track of it for also the last 4 years of the Original 6 era, but to my knowledge nobody has dug up the numbers for those years yet.

    All very good points, any stat is misleading without putting it in the proper context. However when you adjust them to account for the variables as well as possible you can notice some interesting things. I thought it was interesting that the three years Paul Coffey had the most goals against were when he was with Pittsburgh and not Edmonton. Also it`s amazing that Dave Babych was still able to have a decent career after the way Winnipeg pretty much threw him to the wolves his first few years. It would`ve killed the confidence of lots of guys.

    It`s been done for the last few years by different people, but unfortunately the league didn`t start tracking icetime until the late-90s so doing it before that would mean estimating icetime.
     
  9. God Bless Canada

    God Bless Canada Registered User

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    Excellent work, HO, not just for the numbers, but for the refreshing caveat that these are simply numbers, and not the be-all and end-all for player evaluation. (A reality that is often lost on too many posters around here). There are definitely some surprises (never would have thought Zubov would be so high, or that Howe and Stevens would be tied), but there are many who wound up where you'd expect to see them (notably McCrimmon, Foote and Langway).

    Do you have a list for defencemen with the fewest ES goals against who played over 400 NHL games? I believe Russell played the most of anyone on that list at 396 games.
     
  10. Lowetide

    Lowetide Registered User

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    Gerry Odrowski was a defenseman but spend his time in Oakland as a penalty killer and a winger. I'm very certain on this issue as I've spent many hours on the subject of the Oakland Seals (and this is not something one brags about).
     
  11. chooch*

    chooch* Guest

    Excellent work! and much appreciated.

    You should mention your caveats/thoughts every time you post a list as they are quite on point.

    That deafening silence you hear is Edmonton fans not making any Coffey-Orr comparisons in this thread so I'll make one: "I saw Orr play, I was a fan of Orr and you sir are no Bobby Orr".

    Could you do a ESGA per game list for forwards too?
     
  12. Bring Back Bucky

    Bring Back Bucky Registered User

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    I think few Oiler fans believe Coffey to be on par with Orr. Perhaps the Oiler fans are all on online auction sites purchasing pieces of Habs history for smoke and wild turkey money:dunno:
     
  13. RUSqueelin*

    RUSqueelin* Registered User

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    Never heard ANYONE EVER compare Coffey to Orr but perhaps if Coffey didn't spend those 10 years in the easy East on gun slinging teams like the Pens he would have had better stats. If only Mario played some D!


    on a serious note, does anyone remember Coffey playing for the Huricanes, Bruins, Blackhawks and Flyers? I sure don't.
     
  14. pnep

    pnep Registered User

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    Again????
     
  15. Russian_fanatic

    Russian_fanatic Registered User

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    :bow: :bow: Wade Belak :bow: :bow:

    :sarcasm:
     
  16. Oedi

    Oedi Registered User

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    wheres Aki Berg? :biglaugh:
     
  17. swiftwin

    swiftwin #lalala

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    LOL @ Wade Belak!
     
  18. RUSqueelin*

    RUSqueelin* Registered User

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    when you only play 3 minutes a game - .34 seems pretty high.
     
  19. 12# Peter Bondra

    12# Peter Bondra Registered User

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    We should also compare the ESGF for Coffey and I think that if we put the ESGF-ESGA that the final number would be a positive one. Coffey may have been on the ice for a lot of GA's but he was also on the ice for a lot of GF's.
     
  20. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Definitely agreed. Numbers can be used to support an argument or position, but they aren't arguments on their own.

    Langway's rank is even more impressive when you consider the era he played in.

    Here's the list for players with at least 400 games played. (I should have mentioned earlier that these stats are only current through the 2002-03 season).

    Name GP ESGA GPG
    Peter Popovic 485 244 0.50
    Aaron Miller 447 245 0.55
    Robert Dirk 402 249 0.62
    Craig Rivet 437 251 0.57
    Darren Van Impe 411 253 0.62
    Jason Marshall 434 254 0.59
    Aaron Ward 432 256 0.59
    Rhett Warrener 483 257 0.53
    Alexander Karpovtsev 458 259 0.57
    Rick Chartraw 420 260 0.62
    Jay McKee 464 262 0.56
    Aki Berg 452 276 0.61
    Greg Hawgood 474 278 0.59
    Bob Boughner 535 280 0.52
    Janne Laukkanen 407 280 0.69
    Jon Klemm 521 281 0.54
    Jaroslav Modry 411 284 0.69
    Todd Simpson 467 287 0.61
    Drake Berehowsky 493 288 0.58
    Vladimir Konstantinov 446 288 0.65
    Ruslan Salei 434 289 0.67
    Cale Hulse 498 297 0.60
    Jassen Cullimore 445 297 0.67
    Derek Morris 418 298 0.71

    Not surprisingly, most of the players are from the dead puck era. This is a pretty good list though; a lot of very solid stay-at-home defenders are on here (and, Aki Berg).

    I was very surprised when I saw Belak on this list, but consider the context in which he plays.

    1. He played most of his career in the dead-puck era, which artificially lowers his GPG ratio.

    2. He generally gets easy matchups. I can't remember many times that Belak had to shut down players like Kovalchuk, Alfredsson, Sakic, etc. Again, since he faces easier (lower-scoring) opposition, his GPG is lowered.

    3. The Leafs are generally above-average defensively (taking into account both defense and goaltending), so his GPG is probably slighly lowered by this.

    4. Belak probably gets around 8 minutes of ES ice time per game while top defenders can get 15-20. Staying on the ice for .34 goals per 8 minutes worse than .77 (Pronger), .80 (Lidstrom) or .74 (Niedermayer) in 20 ES minutes per game.

    In short, Belak's "unadjusted" numbers look great, but they're not so good once you consider the context.

    ==

    I'll post the list for best/worst forwards later today.
     
  21. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Best GPG By Forwards (min. 200 gp)

    Name GP ESGA Per Game
    Scott Parker 202 20 0.10
    Darren Langdon 443 63 0.14
    P.J. Stock 234 41 0.18
    Stu Grimson 729 133 0.18
    Tony Twist 349 65 0.19
    Krzysztof Oliwa 342 65 0.19
    Jay Caufield 208 41 0.20
    Ken Belanger 243 50 0.21
    Rob Ray 894 185 0.21
    Reid Simpson 299 63 0.21
    Kelly Chase 458 100 0.22
    Mick Vukota 574 132 0.23
    Steve Webb 311 73 0.23
    Dan Hinote 221 52 0.24
    Steve McKenna 324 77 0.24
    Ken Baumgartner 474 113 0.24
    Ryan Vandenbussche 225 54 0.24
    Jeff Daniels 425 103 0.24
    Chris Murray 242 60 0.25
    Tyson Nash 255 65 0.25
    Matt Johnson 416 109 0.26
    Louie DeBrusk 401 106 0.26
    Dave Brown 729 196 0.27
    Chris Dingman 277 75 0.27
    Todd Ewen 518 141 0.27

    Icetime is a major factor here. Being on the ice for 0.2 goals per game as a goon getting 5 minutes of ice time is fairly bad.


    Worst GPG By Forwards (min. 200 gp)

    Name GP ESGA Per Game
    Wayne Gretzky 1487 1838 1.24
    Mario Lemieux 879 1072 1.22
    Blaine Stoughton 526 564 1.07
    Peter Stastny 977 1041 1.07
    Doug Shedden 416 434 1.04
    Mike Rogers 484 504 1.04
    Bernie Federko 1000 1019 1.02
    Dale McCourt 532 540 1.02
    Marcel Dionne 1348 1368 1.01
    Dale Hawerchuk 1188 1202 1.01
    Wilf Paiement 946 957 1.01
    Miroslav Frycer 415 416 1.00
    Dennis Hextall 684 682 1.00
    Phil Esposito 1047 1040 0.99
    Rick Martin 685 676 0.99
    Nelson Pyatt 296 292 0.99
    Guy Charron 734 715 0.97
    Dennis Maruk 888 865 0.97
    Kent Nilsson 553 538 0.97
    Merlin Malinowski 282 274 0.97
    Bernie Nicholls 1127 1094 0.97
    Gilbert Perreault 1191 1154 0.97
    Ivan Boldirev 1052 1015 0.96
    Rick Vaive 876 844 0.96
    Pierre Larouche 812 779 0.96

    Here are some notable players:

    Alyn McCauley 320 110 0.34 x
    Kris Draper 657 236 0.36 x
    John Madden 320 117 0.37 x
    Jere Lehtinen 510 224 0.44 x
    Doug Jarvis 964 446 0.46 x
    Bobby Holik 942 472 0.50 x
    Michael Peca 546 289 0.53 x
    Craig Ramsay 1070 567 0.53 x
    Guy Carbonneau 1318 712 0.54 x
    Bobby Clarke 1144 629 0.55 x
    Bob Gainey 1160 648 0.56 x
    Clark Gillies 958 561 0.59 x
    Steve Shutt 930 560 0.60 x
    Yvan Cournoyer 774 475 0.61 x
    Sergei Fedorov 908 564 0.62 x
    Bill Barber 903 561 0.62 x
    Markus Naslund 712 451 0.63 x
    Jacques Lemaire 853 556 0.65 x
    Jeremy Roenick 1062 702 0.66 x
    Esa Tikkanen 877 590 0.67 x
    Dave Andreychuk 1515 1038 0.69 x
    Peter Bondra 907 635 0.70 x
    Mike Modano 1025 721 0.70 x
    Brendan Shanahan 1186 836 0.70 x
    Stan Mikita 845 596 0.71 x
    Bryan Trottier 1279 920 0.72 x
    Theoren Fleury 1084 784 0.72 x
    Pat Verbeek 1424 1049 0.74 x
    Mike Bossy 752 556 0.74 x
    Guy Lafleur 1126 834 0.74 x
    Trevor Linden 1079 806 0.75 x
    Steve Larmer 1006 752 0.75 x
    Doug Gilmour 1474 1125 0.76 x
    Dave Keon 824 631 0.77 x
    Vincent Damphousse 1296 1021 0.79 x
    Eric Lindros 639 506 0.79 x
    Alexander Mogilny 919 733 0.80 x
    Tim Kerr 655 524 0.80 x
    Rod Brind'Amour 1031 830 0.81 x
    Cam Neely 726 585 0.81 x
    Denis Savard 1196 982 0.82 x
    Glenn Anderson 1129 930 0.82 x
    Luc Robitaille 1286 1080 0.84 x
    Mats Sundin 1005 848 0.84 x
    Michel Goulet 1089 925 0.85 x
    Brett Hull 1183 1014 0.86 x
    Teemu Selanne 801 688 0.86 x
    Mark Recchi 1091 941 0.86 x
    Mike Gartner 1432 1236 0.86 x
    Mark Messier 1680 1455 0.87 x
    Alexei Yashin 663 576 0.87 x
    Ron Francis 1651 1454 0.88 x
    Dino Ciccarelli 1232 1091 0.89 x
    Jaromir Jagr 950 851 0.90 x
    Pavel Bure 702 630 0.90 x
    Jari Kurri 1251 1126 0.90 x
    Adam Oates 1277 1170 0.92 x
    Steve Yzerman 1378 1265 0.92 x
    Joe Sakic 1074 996 0.93 x
    Darryl Sittler 1096 1025 0.94 x
    Pat LaFontaine 865 810 0.94 x
    Gilbert Perreault 1191 1154 0.97 x
    Bernie Nicholls 1127 1094 0.97 x
    Phil Esposito 1047 1040 0.99 x
    Dale Hawerchuk 1188 1202 1.01 x
    Marcel Dionne 1348 1368 1.01 x
    Bernie Federko 1000 1019 1.02 x
    Peter Stastny 977 1041 1.07 x
    Mario Lemieux 879 1072 1.22 x
    Wayne Gretzky 1487 1838 1.24 x

    Clarke is the most impressive player on this list. I'd guess he played around 25 minutes per game (maybe around 17 at ES) in a high-scoring era but still has one of the best scores of all time.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2006

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