Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.

[IAGTTAYM]

I'd go long at 4.5-4.75. I think that's a good bet to be a value deal over the term.

 

[bucks_oil]

Pretty simple question.

Do you go long term on the player? Likely at a deal somewhere between 4-5M.

Or do you bridge him hoping you can save enough space to hopefully squeeze in one more good player over the next couple years while he's on a bridge deal and deal with the potential repercussions in 2-3 years?

He's been a tough player for me to get a read on. I severely underrated him going into this season. As a whole his season was very good. Played a lot of minutes most of it very solid defensive hockey, and had pretty dang strong offensive production considering his usage (tied with Parayko at 34th for d-men at ES). Even with that production though, by my eye he's still pretty ineffective from the blue line in when it comes to offense. That is likely going to be the biggest factor in whether or not he can take yet another step forward. Considering how much he improved this season, I wouldn't bet against him.

There are still times where he gets a bit lost in his defensive end, but he cut back on those mistakes big time this year. As he gets more experience I imagine we'll see them even less frequently.

What to do, what to do.

4.5 or less and I'm going long term. I don't see how he can justify more than the typical Larsson, Klefbom, Jonas Brodin contract. He doesn't have the offense to justify more than $4.5 and if his agent thinks he does, I'm fine with "prove it". That said, I DO think there is a small risk that he ends up with 40 points next year or the year after, which would make his next contract well north of 5M, so there is considerable risk.

I think all of the comps are in our favor. His only argument is "I'll get better", which we agree with... thus the long, 8-year commitment for a guy who still isn't an established offensive or a shut-down D. We trust you'll get there Nurse, we want you a part of the team, but you aren't there yet. We are offering security and a chance to be a stalwart on a dynasty.

 

[bone]

Normally, I'd say try to lock him assuming he accepts a market adjusted Larsson/Klefbom deal (i.e. 4.5-4.8), but cap space is so tight for this team, if you can get him him closer to 3 over the next two years, it's the smarter play. By the time that one expires, we'll know exactly what he is and Sekera and Russell will be moveable.

Reality is I don't see a large risk in him turning into a $7-8M d-man over those two years anyways, so saving a 1-2M cap space the next two years at the cost of an additional $2-3M cap 3 years from now is probably the right play.

 

[joestevens29]

Darnell Nurse isn't interested in a long-term deal with the Edmonton Oilers

“They’ve sent us a proposal and we’ll see where that goes,” said Thun. “I don’t see with their cap space being what it is that they can entice us with much term.”

“If they’ve got $5 million in cap space (now), it’s not going to be a long-term deal,” said Thun.

Not sure what to make of that last statement by the agent. Are they looking for more than 5? Are they looking for less, but think the team wants a mil of buffer?

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Darnell Nurse isn't interested in a long-term deal with the Edmonton Oilers

“They’ve sent us a proposal and we’ll see where that goes,” said Thun. “I don’t see with their cap space being what it is that they can entice us with much term.”

“If they’ve got $5 million in cap space (now), it’s not going to be a long-term deal,” said Thun.

Not sure what to make of that last statement by the agent. Are they looking for more than 5? Are they looking for less, but think the team wants a mil of buffer?

Yeah that could be concerning. If it has to be a bridge do they wait to see what other players get in arbitration before making a decision?

 

[shoop]

I'm ok with a bridge for Nurse.

A couple years to see if he can really be a 2D. The totality of last season had him trending to be a second pairing guy.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

2 year at 3.2m each.

 

[fireantz]

I'm ok with a bridge for Nurse.

A couple years to see if he can really be a 2D. The totality of last season had him trending to be a second pairing guy.

I believe he already is a 2nd pair shutdown guy. Sign at 4.167M for as long as possible with a promise to renegotiate if he reaches 15 goals and first pairing. I see him as long term 2nd pair with Larsson

 

[Hockey Nightmare]

rofl the agent even mentions Chia's strange Gryba buyout. WTG Chia, news of your crazy cap management has grown far and wide.

 

[Cypress]

The agent is basically saying nurse would be looking for over $5M long term. Nurse seems like the type of guy who would be demanding / overvalue himself for some reason. I'd like to see 2-3 years at around 3-3.5

 

[Soundwave]

Darnell Nurse isn't interested in a long-term deal with the Edmonton Oilers

“They’ve sent us a proposal and we’ll see where that goes,” said Thun. “I don’t see with their cap space being what it is that they can entice us with much term.”

“If they’ve got $5 million in cap space (now), it’s not going to be a long-term deal,” said Thun.

Not sure what to make of that last statement by the agent. Are they looking for more than 5? Are they looking for less, but think the team wants a mil of buffer?

This is what happens when your GM overpays all the time. Nurse's agent is looking to bend Chia over.

Agents know a sucker when they see one. He's looking for 5+ long term.

 

[Soundwave]

rofl the agent even mentions Chia's strange Gryba buyout. WTG Chia, news of your crazy cap management has grown far and wide.

People really delude themselves when they think agents don't pay attention to Chiarelli. They all know he's a dummy and its compromising us in every negotiation.

We are carrying this liability in our front office just for the maybe upside that he finds a Maroon every 3-4 years. It's so not worth it.

 

[Raab]

If your Nurse and you seen Mcdavid get 12.5 and Draisaitl get 8.5M. Why the hell do you sign for anything less then 4M?

 

[Soundwave]

If your Nurse and you seen Mcdavid get 12.5 and Draisaitl get 8.5M. Why the hell do you sign for anything less then 4M?

Nurse and McDavid are bros, Darnell probably knows full well McDavid had to actively talk Chia out of paying him more than 12.5. He probably knows all about how the McDavid and Drai extensions went. Dude is a push over, everyone knows it.

Every agent is looking to bend us over with this GM.

 

[oobga]

If your Nurse and you seen Mcdavid get 12.5 and Draisaitl get 8.5M. Why the hell do you sign for anything less then 4M?

Why does anyone sign for less than anything because someone else got X amount?

Nurse can't compare himself to McDavid or Drai. Drai got to ride a wave after he scored 16 points in 13 games. McDavid is the best player in the NHL. Nurse had a good half season and tailed off and is comparable to lots of ~3-4M players in the league in their RFA years.

 

[Soundwave]

Why does anyone sign for less than anything because someone else got X amount?

Nurse can't compare himself to McDavid or Drai. Drai got to ride a wave after he scored 16 points in 13 games. McDavid is the best player in the NHL. Nurse had a good half season and tailed off and is comparable to lots of ~3-4M players in the league in their RFA years.

Those three are buds. Darnell has likely been told how their experience with Chia was and he knows to hold out for $$$. This GM can't negotiate to save his life and everyone knows it.

He's paying a guy with 4 career NHL games $2.5 million to maybe play 15 games in net.

Agents are not dumb, they see all that.

 

[Roof Daddy]

The problem with a bridge deal, is where will salaries/the cap be in 2-3 years? For a long time defenceman were underpaid compared to forwards, but now Doughty and (soon) EK65 are going to be paid relative to top forwards. Even a guy like Vlasic who isn't really a dual threat (more of a high end shutdown guy) is getting 7 million. If we get expansion money coming in with Seattle, it's not out of the question in 3 years the cap is 90 mil. Nurse could be a 5.5-6 mil guy (assuming he progresses).

I would say go long-term, but only 6 years. You have to make concessions if you want the cap number down a bit, the tradeoff for Nurse being he only gives up 2 UFA years, and would still be 29 when he has a shot at UFA status (an age still capable of landing a 7 year deal).

6 years, 25 (his number, hopefully superstitious) million. 4.167 hit (same as Klefbom and Larsson). Still leaves us with 813k, enough to sign a 14th forward at 650k and still have a little wiggle room to roster juggle.

Next year Sekera and Russel will have limited NTC's, and with only 2 years left, they'll be traceable unless they play like garbage.

If it's this year we're worried about (trade deadline), I don't really see us being so good that it's a year we load up. If it is somehow, you have retention as an option, as well as money that could go the other way (Benning, Kassian, Caggulia, one of the goalies) and replaced with cheaper options.

I think there's just way more value in getting Nurse locked up long term.

 

[Mr Positive]

This is what happens when your GM overpays all the time. Nurse's agent is looking to bend Chia over.

Agents know a sucker when they see one. He's looking for 5+ long term.

oh c'mon. The closest comparable is Klefbom, who Chia signed at a reasonable deal. With that comparison, Nurse has proven a bit more and should be signed long term at around 5 million AAV. That's a bump from Klefbom based on cap growth as well as him being more proven at the time of signing.

Chia gave overpayments to UFAs who likely had other offers, and at that point it's more like a question of whether he should have waded in the free agent pool at all, not about him overpaying for them exactly. Even there though, he's also had very reasonable signings such as Brodziak and Reider, as well as the deal he re-signed Talbot to.

Nurse's agent will have his comparables, and Chia will have his comparables. Chia likely knew that Nurse's long term deal would start with a 5, so spent up his cap to try and chisel him. That's why this is taking a long time, and that's a good thing. He's trying to bring Nurse's number down as much as he can

 

[XXIV97]

4.75 M x 6

 

[shoop]

I believe he already is a 2nd pair shutdown guy. Sign at 4.167M for as long as possible with a promise to renegotiate if he reaches 15 goals and first pairing. I see him as long term 2nd pair with Larsson

Don't think that promise to renegotiate goes over too well.

Compared to the size of the cap I think Nurse would be better off taking a bridge deal for $3M to $3.5M.

Nurse's agent would be doing a bad job if he recommended a long term deal at $4.167M.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If Nurse wants $5 million or more long term, you bridge him and make him earn such a contract. He hasn't yet and may not for a number of years.

 

[Soundwave]

oh c'mon. The closest comparable is Klefbom, who Chia signed at a reasonable deal. With that comparison, Nurse has proven a bit more and should be signed long term at around 5 million AAV. That's a bump from Klefbom based on cap growth as well as him being more proven at the time of signing.

Chia gave overpayments to UFAs who likely had other offers, and at that point it's more like a question of whether he should have waded in the free agent pool at all, not about him overpaying for them exactly. Even there though, he's also had very reasonable signings such as Brodziak and Reider, as well as the deal he re-signed Talbot to.

Nurse's agent will have his comparables, and Chia will have his comparables. Chia likely knew that Nurse's long term deal would start with a 5, so spent up his cap to try and chisel him. That's why this is taking a long time, and that's a good thing. He's trying to bring Nurse's number down as much as he can

They're going for 5+ on a long term deal because they know Chia is weak on negotiations.

Klefbom's deal would only be 4.4 per adjusted for the rise in cap, Nurse's agent isn't willing to entertain that because he knows Chia is a push over. This what you get with a GM with this kind of rep, it compromises us in negotiations.

Klef's deal was also negotiated a lot with Mac T as GM.

 

[McDNicks17]

You have to keep in mind there's another expansion team coming and agents saw how much the cap spiked with Vegas.

 

[Raab]

oh c'mon. The closest comparable is Klefbom, who Chia signed at a reasonable deal. With that comparison, Nurse has proven a bit more and should be signed long term at around 5 million AAV. That's a bump from Klefbom based on cap growth as well as him being more proven at the time of signing.

Chia gave overpayments to UFAs who likely had other offers, and at that point it's more like a question of whether he should have waded in the free agent pool at all, not about him overpaying for them exactly. Even there though, he's also had very reasonable signings such as Brodziak and Reider, as well as the deal he re-signed Talbot to.

Nurse's agent will have his comparables, and Chia will have his comparables. Chia likely knew that Nurse's long term deal would start with a 5, so spent up his cap to try and chisel him. That's why this is taking a long time, and that's a good thing. He's trying to bring Nurse's number down as much as he can

So the question is why is Chia only playing hard ball with Nurse, while everyone else on the Oilers got overpays?

 

[Bryanbryoil]

They're going for 5+ on a long term deal because they know Chia is weak on negotiations.

Klefbom's deal would only be 4.4 per adjusted for the rise in cap, Nurse's agent isn't willing to entertain that because he knows Chia is a push over. This what you get with a GM with this kind of rep, it compromises us in negotiations.

Klef's deal was also negotiated a lot with Mac T as GM.

That kind of mentality will see that he's traded. Drai and Connor are special cases. Sekera and Lucic were both signed at market value as UFA's, the true overpays are on the bottom part of the roster (Caggiula for example) and because of a dip in play since signing said contract (Lucic). There is only so much cap to go around and until Sekera and/or Russell move on Darnell needs to be realistic about what he can sign for.