Confirmed with Link: Danny DeKeyser re-signed 6 years 30 million

[Frk It]

Sooooo...


...why are we using point production to compare an offensive defenseman to a defensive defenseman?

Being a defensive defenseman is hard to quantify. And that's what everyone wants to do now a days, with the following of advanced stats.

Go look on the main board and most everyone thinks Dekeyser is awful. I'm not super high on the kid, but other team's fans really take a dump on him.

It's funny, everyone cites shot suppression numbers, but not a single person can even explain to me really how that stat is tracked.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Massive value? Maybe not. But significantly more valuable? I think so.

It's an academic point. The contracts are different due to their timing and years covered. DeKeyser was on a value deal, and now he's not. Barrie will experience that, too, albeit later.

Barrie isn't on a value deal either. He's on a more valuable deal than DeKeyser, but let's not act like 5.5M is a steal for Tyson Barrie. A value deal for a D is the 4M that Roman Josi has. The ~5M something that OEL is getting paid. Barrie is terrible possession wise and is no great shakes defensively. There is a reason why the prevailing wisdom was that Colorado would deal him. Paying him 6M a year (which is what it looked like it was gonna take) is a big risk. Making it 5.5M doesn't lessen that.

 

[Run the Jewels]

But in their situation, they probably HAVE to trade him in 2-3 years or very much run the risk of losing him for nothing when this contract expires. I think it's shortsighted to call it a great deal for Colorado. Looks great now but Colorado's not a contender in the next year or two anyway.

It's great to have an asset that has trade value. He is one of the top point producers in the league among defenders. So you have a 50+ point d-man who is just hitting his prime for $5.5 million per year. That's not cheap but it's well below market rate. Like I said, you would have no problem moving him with that deal. If he blows up and gets closer to 1 PPG like Karlsson well that's a great problem to have. There's still good upside with Barrie. With DeKeyser he will never be one of the top 30 d-men in the league. He's probably closer to top 100.

I know people get upset when you criticize Holland and I am not criticizing Holland for the DeKeyser deal. Look at the thread, I was very early to respond on that thread and the only negative thing I said was that Holland didn't get his typical AAV break that he usually gets when he signs guys who are just edging past their prime, ie Howard, Abdelkader and Helm.

 

[Frk It]

Barrie isn't on a value deal either. He's on a more valuable deal than DeKeyser, but let's not act like 5.5M is a steal for Tyson Barrie. A value deal for a D is the 4M that Roman Josi has. The ~5M something that OEL is getting paid. Barrie is terrible possession wise and is no great shakes defensively. There is a reason why the prevailing wisdom was that Colorado would deal him. Paying him 6M a year (which is what it looked like it was gonna take) is a big risk. Making it 5.5M doesn't lessen that.

I mean.... 6th among all defenseman in points over the last 2 years. The value is good here. Not really seeing much risk either.

Bad possession-wise? How so?

 

[Bench]

I mean.... 6th among all defenseman in points over the last 2 years. The value is good here. Not really seeing much risk either.

Bad possession-wise? How so?

Yeah, exactly.

And I think it's important to keep in mind neither you or I seem to think the Barrie deal somehow makes the DeKeyser deal terrible, due to the contract timing.

My primary DeKeyser issue remains the 6 years. Which is long. So much can happen in 6 years. I guess of all the guys signed to 6 years, this is my favorite one, though.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah, exactly.

And I think it's important to keep in mind neither you or I seem to think the Barrie deal somehow makes the DeKeyser deal terrible, due to the contract timing.

My primary DeKeyser issue remains the 6 years. Which is long. So much can happen in 6 years. I guess of all the guys signed to 6 years, this is my favorite one, though.

With how bad Holland has overpaid with expired UFA's (Helm) and soon-to-be UFA's (Abdelkader) I don't mind at all locking up Dekeyser for 6 years.

If he gave him a bridge, or short-term deal, he probably would have just given him stupid money in 2-3 years.

And yes, me thinking Barrie is a great player has nothing to do with how I view Dekeyser's contract. Because the situations are entirely different.

 

[HockeyinHD]

I'll never understand the obsession with only comparing even strength production, as if powerplay points don't matter.

Do you ever consider usage in any comparison of two players? Like, if one guy is playing 15 minutes a night on a bottom 6 line while another guy plays 15 a night on a top 6 line? Opportunity? Role? Linemates?

If you do, you should also do that here. If you don't, then there you go.

For instance, Barrie played :30/g on the PK last year, which was a career high given his :12 on the PK the year before and his :05 on the PK the year before that.

So, if the argument people are presenting is 'Barrie is better because he has a lot more points, duh!', then in order to make an honest comparison one needs to examine the source of those points... at least, if an honest comparison is the goal. If the goal is to just spin a narrative, then have at doing it however one wants.

Obviously, even if a dman stinks offensively, if given a large enough PP role he's going to aggregate points at a reasonable level. One needs look no further than Kyle Quincey in LA and Colorado (Colorado! Barrie's team!) to see this. Even given Dekeyser's middling (at best) to poor offensive game, had he been a 2:45+ a night PP guy like Barrie has he'd have rung up points year over year over year, and likely enough so that there isn't some huge gulf between the production of the two.

Last year Barrie played 22:40 on either the PP or at ES.
Last year Dekeyser played 19:06 on either the PP or at ES.

Usage impacts production. If one is going to cite production sans usage, they are doing it wrong.

DeKeyser doesn't do that, and as a consequence, he's not a complete player.

And that's totally fair, as long as one also allows that given Barrie's relative absence from the PK side of the special teams equation, nearly mirroring DK's from the PP, he is also an incomplete player.

 

[Bench]

And that's totally fair, as long as one also allows that given Barrie's relative absence from the PK side of the special teams equation, nearly mirroring DK's from the PP, he is also an incomplete player.

That makes sense. Good post explaining their relative ice time and strengths.

 

[jkutswings]

While there is some truth to your argument, you're also assuming that even the worst offensive defenseman to ever play the game will rack up points if given ample time on the power play, which simply isn't true.

Barrie is significantly more talented at the offensive end than DeKeyser. DeKeyser is somewhat more talented at the defensive end than Barrie. Neither is a crime. For this roster at this moment, I'd vastly prefer Barrie. YMMV.

 

[Frk It]

Do you ever consider usage in any comparison of two players? Like, if one guy is playing 15 minutes a night on a bottom 6 line while another guy plays 15 a night on a top 6 line? Opportunity? Role? Linemates?

If you do, you should also do that here. If you don't, then there you go.

For instance, Barrie played :30/g on the PK last year, which was a career high given his :12 on the PK the year before and his :05 on the PK the year before that.

So, if the argument people are presenting is 'Barrie is better because he has a lot more points, duh!', then in order to make an honest comparison one needs to examine the source of those points... at least, if an honest comparison is the goal. If the goal is to just spin a narrative, then have at doing it however one wants.

Obviously, even if a dman stinks offensively, if given a large enough PP role he's going to aggregate points at a reasonable level. One needs look no further than Kyle Quincey in LA and Colorado (Colorado! Barrie's team!) to see this. Even given Dekeyser's middling (at best) to poor offensive game, had he been a 2:45+ a night PP guy like Barrie has he'd have rung up points year over year over year, and likely enough so that there isn't some huge gulf between the production of the two.

Last year Barrie played 22:40 on either the PP or at ES.
Last year Dekeyser played 19:06 on either the PP or at ES.

Usage impacts production. If one is going to cite production sans usage, they are doing it wrong.



And that's totally fair, as long as one also allows that given Barrie's relative absence from the PK side of the special teams equation, nearly mirroring DK's from the PP, he is also an incomplete player.

So question for you.

Take a look at guys who play 19-22 minutes a night with usage as ES + PK (with little to no PP) and then ES + PP (with little to no PK).

Look at the caphit for these players. The guys that play ES + PP are going to be paid considerably better.

Why do you think this is? You think that is just arbitrary? Or a coincidence?

Yes, usage impacts production. But then let's also acknowledge that skill set determines usage.

 

[HockeyinHD]

While there is some truth to your argument, you're also assuming that even the worst offensive defenseman to ever play the game will rack up points if given ample time on the power play, which simply isn't true.

A) That is you hyperbolizing my point.

B) I cited Kyle Quincey. Would you care to to regale me with your positive reflections on his offensive efficiency?

Barrie is significantly more talented at the offensive end than DeKeyser. DeKeyser is somewhat more talented at the defensive end than Barrie. Neither is a crime.

But only one is accurate.

For this roster at this moment, I'd vastly prefer Barrie. YMMV.

You say that until the team had Barrie and didn't have Dekeyser, at which point the immediate complaints would be about how the defense was constantly getting pounded, was a-physical, and how the other team was just skating around everyone all the time.

Also, in that smooth transaction you just pulled, last year's #1 PK dman in terms of IT (Dekeyser) and #3 (Quincey) would be off the roster... leaving Ericsson, Kronwall, Marchenko and Smith as the top four remaining.

Would you care to describe for me how you'd expect the PK to perform with that cadre of dmen on it? Are you excited to see how that one would go?

 

[jkutswings]

Simple. I'd rather lose 6-5 hockey games than watch this dead puck mediocrity. Then there's at least some excitement. What Detroit has now is void of both contention and excitement.

Plus, offensive defensemen are a rarer commodity. There are more DeKeysers in the world than Barries, so it would likely be easier to have a Barrie, and need to find a DeKeyser, than the other way around.

 

[InjuredChoker]

barrie's production relative to ice time might be more impressive than his overall numbers since he became a regular. so he gets lot of pp/es ice time thus he gets a lot of points doesn't apply here.

what quincey did 5 years ago in colorado has little to no relevance. quincey had 53 points in 154 games with the avs. barrie had as many just in 14-15 season. barrie had 32 points that season 5on5. or more than dekeyser had overall.

barrie also has played the past 3 seasons mostly with partners who aren't NHL caliber players. his best partner might be nick holden who probably isn't even good enough to crack red wings roster. passable as #6 guy.

And you really like a guy who was a 3rd worst on the whole team -16 last year.

much of those came because of EN goals. roy pulls the goalie much earlier than other teams and sometimes in wacky situations (like down 4-1 and puts 6on3 when the other team is shorthanded by two skaters). he was actually plus player 5on5.

just 5on5, barrie has the best ES goal differential of all avs players since he became a regular (january 2014).

It is horribly simplistic to say "Barrie scores twice as many points so he's so much better" as that ignores usage and team strategy and also the fact that Tyson Barrie's Corsi numbers are straight up ****. They are garbage. For being so much better offensively, shouldn't he outdo DeKeyser in the possession game?

barrie's raw numbers are garbage. but no one has great raw numbers when rest of the team is around 40% when without him. or slightly more. his relative numbers though, which gives us way more accurate picture on how he impacts possession, blow dekeyser out of the water. he's one of the best possession drivers in the game. while also playing with one of the worst partners in the NHL.

for example, 14-15. barrie played most of the season with nate guenin. together on the ice they had corsi of 43%. when barrie was on the ice without nate guenin, it was 48.1%. when guenin was on the ice without barrie, avs had corsi of 32.8. like they were on the penalty kill. barrie managed to score 53 points, among the leaders on his team while playing with this garbage.

 

[Winger98]

It's great to have an asset that has trade value. He is one of the top point producers in the league among defenders. So you have a 50+ point d-man who is just hitting his prime for $5.5 million per year. That's not cheap but it's well below market rate. Like I said, you would have no problem moving him with that deal. If he blows up and gets closer to 1 PPG like Karlsson well that's a great problem to have. There's still good upside with Barrie. With DeKeyser he will never be one of the top 30 d-men in the league. He's probably closer to top 100.

I know people get upset when you criticize Holland and I am not criticizing Holland for the DeKeyser deal. Look at the thread, I was very early to respond on that thread and the only negative thing I said was that Holland didn't get his typical AAV break that he usually gets when he signs guys who are just edging past their prime, ie Howard, Abdelkader and Helm.

I'm not sure why Colorado has to deal him. He hasn't seemed thrilled with his stay in Colorado, but a lot can change in a few years, especially if that team starts winning. And it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world to see the young guys on that team take another step this next season and make the playoffs.

 

[Yzerman1919*]

barrie's production relative to ice time might be more impressive than his overall numbers since he became a regular. so he gets lot of pp/es ice time thus he gets a lot of points doesn't apply here.

what quincey did 5 years ago in colorado has little to no relevance. quincey had 53 points in 154 games with the avs. barrie had as many just in 14-15 season. barrie had 32 points that season 5on5. or more than dekeyser had overall.

barrie also has played the past 3 seasons mostly with partners who aren't NHL caliber players. his best partner might be nick holden who probably isn't even good enough to crack red wings roster. passable as #6 guy.



much of those came because of EN goals. roy pulls the goalie much earlier than other teams and sometimes in wacky situations (like down 4-1 and puts 6on3 when the other team is shorthanded by two skaters). he was actually plus player 5on5.

just 5on5, barrie has the best ES goal differential of all avs players since he became a regular (january 2014).



barrie's raw numbers are garbage. but no one has great raw numbers when rest of the team is around 40% when without him. or slightly more. his relative numbers though, which gives us way more accurate picture on how he impacts possession, blow dekeyser out of the water. he's one of the best possession drivers in the game. while also playing with one of the worst partners in the NHL.

for example, 14-15. barrie played most of the season with nate guenin. together on the ice they had corsi of 43%. when barrie was on the ice without nate guenin, it was 48.1%. when guenin was on the ice without barrie, avs had corsi of 32.8. like they were on the penalty kill. barrie managed to score 53 points, among the leaders on his team while playing with this garbage.

Or we could just trade for Fowler and stop the Dekeyser vs Barrie argument and be happy we got another pretty solid young D-man. Look at that patience. I don't care if Fowler isn't a true #1. We aren't getting a true #1 without trading Larkin. So having Fowler and Dekeyser for long term is plenty fine.

 

[Reddwit]

Or we could just trade for Fowler and stop the Dekeyser vs Barrie argument and be happy we got another pretty solid young D-man. Look at that patience. I don't care if Fowler isn't a true #1. We aren't getting a true #1 without trading Larkin. So having Fowler and Dekeyser for long term is plenty fine.

Or we could just trade all of Tatar, Sheahan, Jurco/Pulkkinen, Svech, and Dekeyser and add both Fowler and Barrie.

 

[SoupGuru]

Everyone on this team sucks. Everyone in the minors is a future all-star. Everyone on another team is better as well.

The grass is always greener

 

[Run the Jewels]

I'm not sure why Colorado has to deal him. He hasn't seemed thrilled with his stay in Colorado, but a lot can change in a few years, especially if that team starts winning. And it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world to see the young guys on that team take another step this next season and make the playoffs.

They don't. They could very easily keep him. I don't know if the trade talk was a negotiation tactic or if they were seriously weighing all their options. All of the articles around that time questioned trading a player of Barrie's caliber. The rest of the league seems to grasp something that is clearly lost on some of our forum posters. Unfortunately the Avs came to their senses and they locked him into a great deal.

 

[Reddwit]

They don't. They could very easily keep him. I don't know if the trade talk was a negotiation tactic or if they were seriously weighing all their options. All of the articles around that time questioned trading a player of Barrie's caliber. The rest of the league seems to grasp something that is clearly lost on some of our forum posters. Unfortunately the Avs came to their senses and they locked him into a great deal.

Whether it was a negotation tactic or not, the Barrie trade rumors gained traction because of what happened with O'Reilly. They hard-balled a player that every team in the league would love to have, so doing it with Barrie - a RHPMD - wasn't as ludicrous coming out of the Avs' front office as it would've out of almost anyone else's.

 

[obey86]

If we just judged all of Colorado's players by the number of points they put up (like people are doing with Barrie) you'd think they would be a significantly better team than the Red Wings and have a significantly better offense:

Duchene 59
Landeskog 53
MacKinnon 52
Soderberg 51
Barrie 49
Iginla 47

The Avs had 6 players with more points than or within 3 points of the Wings leading scorer (Zetterberg, 50 points).

But somehow the Avalanche were worse than the Red Wings record wise, had a worse goal differential, and only scored 5 more goals than the Wings did. Point is, there's more to a player's value to his team than the number of points they put up.

 

[HockeyinHD]

what quincey did 5 years ago in colorado has little to no relevance.

You didn't understand the point of my mentioning Quincey. The point was not that Quincey = Barrie. The point was that even defensemen with mediocre to poor offensive skills derive a significant boost to their production when they are on the PP a lot.

barrie also has played the past 3 seasons mostly with partners who aren't NHL caliber players.

A)

2016:

75.16%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
10.05%EVBARRIE,TYSON - BEAUCHEMIN,FRANCOIS
4.09%EVBARRIE,TYSON - JOHNSON,ERIK

2015:

53.48%EVBARRIE,TYSON - GUENIN,NATE
12.44%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HEJDA,JAN
10.1%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
9.21%EVBARRIE,TYSON - STUART,BRAD
6.17%EVBARRIE,TYSON - JOHNSON,ERIK
5.76%EVBARRIE,TYSON - REDMOND,ZACH

B) That doesn't explain why his +/- is 3rd worst on the team.

much of those came because of EN goals.

Is there a stat you have to demonstrate that is so?

just 5on5, barrie has the best ES goal differential of all avs players since he became a regular (january 2014).

As he has played more his +/- has gotten worse. Correlation may not be causation, but it may not not be causation, too.

Also, how many players have been regulars on the Avs for all three of those years? Landeskog and MacKinnon for sure have better +/-'s, right?

Barrie is a good offensive defenseman. He is a mediocre to poor defensive defenseman. To the degree a team wishes to sacrifice proficiency in the latter to bolster the former, he is a good choice. Dekeyser is the opposite. A good defensive defenseman, a mediocre to poor offensive defenseman. The same rules apply to his acquisition and use.

I think had Dekeyser had a Quincey-like role on the PP he'd have numbers that would make his offense look better without actually being better, which is what I feel people are doing with Barrie, given that he does have good offensive numbers. DK's would still be lesser, but much improved, with a bunch of PP time.

 

[Winger98]

They don't. They could very easily keep him. I don't know if the trade talk was a negotiation tactic or if they were seriously weighing all their options. All of the articles around that time questioned trading a player of Barrie's caliber. The rest of the league seems to grasp something that is clearly lost on some of our forum posters. Unfortunately the Avs came to their senses and they locked him into a great deal.

I thought it was coming more from Barrie than from the Avs. I think the Avs front office has been pretty vocal about wanting to keep him. It just seemed like he was an unhappy player for whatever reason. Maybe playing for Roy does that to people.

 

[Reddwit]

If we just judged all of Colorado's players by the number of points they put up (like people are doing with Barrie) you'd think they would be a significantly better team than the Red Wings and have a significantly better offense:

Duchene 59
Landeskog 53
MacKinnon 52
Soderberg 51
Barrie 49
Iginla 47

The Avs had 6 players with more points than or within 3 points of the Wings leading scorer (Zetterberg, 50 points).

But somehow the Avalanche were worse than the Red Wings record wise, had a worse goal differential, and only scored 5 more goals than the Wings did. Point is, there's more to a player's value to his team than the number of points they put up.

LOL. Interesting logic. Damn these people for judging an offensive defenseman by his....offense! Damn these people for taking note of his offense when he's top 10 at his ability to do so over the past 2 years of his short career! Instead, we should cherry pick the stats of Colorado's forwards as evidence of a grass-is-greener mentality. Never mind that their best forward was only 45th in scoring. Never mind that their coach is of questionable ability. And lets definitely ignore that they have arguably the worst bottom 3 in the NHL!

I suggest you scroll up and read InjuredChoker's well thought out post on Barrie instead of sticking with this argument.

 

[Reddwit]

A)

2016:

75.16%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
10.05%EVBARRIE,TYSON - BEAUCHEMIN,FRANCOIS
4.09%EVBARRIE,TYSON - JOHNSON,ERIK

2015:

53.48%EVBARRIE,TYSON - GUENIN,NATE
12.44%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HEJDA,JAN
10.1%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
9.21%EVBARRIE,TYSON - STUART,BRAD
6.17%EVBARRIE,TYSON - JOHNSON,ERIK
5.76%EVBARRIE,TYSON - REDMOND,ZACH

B) That doesn't explain why his +/- is 3rd worst on the team.

What is your point with this part of your post? Nate Guenin and Nick Holden are legitimately two of the worst regular NHLers in the league. All you did was show that Barrie collectively spent 63-75% of his time with them over the past two years. So....?

 

[njx9]

Everyone on this team sucks. Everyone in the minors is a future all-star. Everyone on another team is better as well.

The grass is always greener

The team is clearly perfect, and on it's way to winning multiple Cups. Nothing can ever be improved in any way whatsoever.

Or, you know, maybe that's ridiculous, non-additive hyperbole and misrepresentation.