Confirmed with Link: Danny DeKeyser re-signed 6 years 30 million

[InjuredChoker]

A)

2016:

75.16%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
10.05%EVBARRIE,TYSON - BEAUCHEMIN,FRANCOIS
4.09%EVBARRIE,TYSON - JOHNSON,ERIK

2015:

53.48%EVBARRIE,TYSON - GUENIN,NATE
12.44%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HEJDA,JAN
10.1%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
9.21%EVBARRIE,TYSON - STUART,BRAD
6.17%EVBARRIE,TYSON - JOHNSON,ERIK
5.76%EVBARRIE,TYSON - REDMOND,ZACH

B) That doesn't explain why his +/- is 3rd worst on the team.

nate guenin isn't NHL defenseman. some of those barely are like nick holden, anyway worse than what dekeyser has had. EJ and beauch are good to very good.

except i did explain why his +/- is so bad.

Is there a stat you have to demonstrate that is so?

you can just look at his game logs. lot of EN goals and shorties (some might be on barrie, some not). which explain the bad +/-. 5on5

here are avs goal differential stats from last year 5on5 (dekeyser was 2nd worst of wings D, with 46% goal differential 5on5). here are the past 3 seasons. corsica.hockey allows one to pick specific timelines which show that barrie has the best goal differential since january 2014 (among their defenseman, 2nd overall).

there was site that showed exactly every situation for goals and against for every player but it's now down (war-on-ice.com).

+/- is a garbage stat in relatively small samples anyway. like one season for a single player. too many variables.

As he has played more his +/- has gotten worse. Correlation may not be causation, but it may not not be causation, too.

the team around him has gotten worse more.

Also, how many players have been regulars on the Avs for all three of those years? Landeskog and MacKinnon for sure have better +/-'s, right?

mackinnon has slightly better goal differential 5on5, accorindg to corsicas custom query which allows one to set specific timelines. landeskog doesn't have. barrie has the best raw numbers or just +/- (+22). mackinnon has missed more games so he's at +19, even though he has slightly better goal differential. looks like i remembered that part wrong.

Barrie is a good offensive defenseman. He is a mediocre to poor defensive defenseman. To the degree a team wishes to sacrifice proficiency in the latter to bolster the former, he is a good choice. Dekeyser is the opposite. A good defensive defenseman, a mediocre to poor offensive defenseman. The same rules apply to his acquisition and use.

actually, barrie is one of the best offensive defenseman in the game, top 10 (i think 7th or 8 the past 3 seasons). dekeyser isn't as good defensively, as barrie is offensively. barrie is solid defensively, slightly below average. not poor. and would do a lot better if he had even as good partners as dekeyser has had.

finding solid defensive defenseman isn't that hard (though dekeyser is better than that). most defenseman in the NHL can play solid defense with good system and good coach. babcock has managed make almost every defender look solid under him. no coach or system can create the kind of impact barrie can do offensively.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's great to have an asset that has trade value. He is one of the top point producers in the league among defenders. So you have a 50+ point d-man who is just hitting his prime for $5.5 million per year. That's not cheap but it's well below market rate. Like I said, you would have no problem moving him with that deal. If he blows up and gets closer to 1 PPG like Karlsson well that's a great problem to have. There's still good upside with Barrie. With DeKeyser he will never be one of the top 30 d-men in the league. He's probably closer to top 100.

It's more than a little unfair to compare the Dekeyser and Barrie contracts since you're talking about 6 years vs. 4 and different numbers of RFA years. Barrie is 5.5 now, but after this contract he will be UFA and get a big raise, and it's more than likely Colorado will have some headaches keeping him around at that point. If they move him it's not a "great problem", it would be an unfortunate necessity such as what the Blues have to do with Shattenkirk. Avs may have bought themselves 4 years of great value for Barrie, but it may cost them the player himself down the line.
If Dekeyser's deal was 4 years and a bit cheaper, sure he'd be more of a tradeable asset. But do you really see Dekeyser as being expendable on our D at any point in the next 4 years? Heck if he's not one of our top 4 D-men when the contract expires it probably means we've hit some homeruns with our draft picks.

 

[HockeyinHD]

nate guenin isn't NHL defenseman. some of those barely are like nick holden,

Here's why I like +/- a little bit: It gives you some pieces of a logic puzzle. For example, according to you Nick Holden is a 6, or something. Great.

73.69%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
5.9%EVHOLDEN,NICK - JOHNSON,ERIK
5.57%EVBEAUCHEMIN,FRANCOIS - HOLDEN,NICK

That was Holden in 2016. Holden finished with a -1, but played almost 3/4th of his ES IT with Barrie, who finished with a -16. Barrie did play over 3/4ths of his ES IT with Holden, but somehow in the other 25% of his time managed to be a -15, relative to him.

How does that happen? Obviously there's something going on this past year, right? If Holden is the problem with the pairing they'd share more similarities in their +/-, being paired as often as they are. Therefore, blaming Holden for being a problem on the pairing seems to be missing the actual point.

+/- may not tell us what that is, but it can tell us what it most likely is not.

you can just look at his game logs. lot of EN goals and shorties (some might be on barrie, some not). which explain the bad +/-. 5on5

So then no, you don't actually have a stat on that, it's just something you believe to be the case and require me to spend an hour combing through 78 game logs and indexing them to the incidence of EN goals, at which point you'll just ignore the thing entirely and it's wasted time.

Okay. I'll take a pass on that.

+/- is a garbage stat in relatively small samples anyway. like one season for a single player. too many variables.

Enh. Not really. The 'variables' wash out when you just leave it within the team. Year over year or team v team, sure. Not terribly meaningful. For a specific year on a specific team, they can be useful. Not as predictive tools, but as analytics post mortem.

barrie has the best raw numbers or just +/- (+22). mackinnon has missed more games so he's at +19, even though he has slightly better goal differential. looks like i remembered that part wrong.

The past 3 years Barrie is a +6, combined. Mackinnon's 9, Landeskog's 14. I think Hejda and Holden are worse. I don;t know how many other players have been on the team all three years.

actually, barrie is one of the best offensive defenseman in the game, top 10 (i think 7th or 8 the past 3 seasons). dekeyser isn't as good defensively, as barrie is offensively.

Well, if Kronwall and Ericsson and Kindl and Smith and Green and Quincey are as bad as everyone says, Detroit not having the worst GAA in the league has to come from somewhere, right? Especially given that Howard has struggled (and played a lot) while Mrazek has played well, but had his moments of awfulness too.

Detroit was right in the middle of the league in terms of GAA and sv% and shots allowed. If all the other dmen suck but the whole team was average defensively, maybe that means Dekeyser was exceptionally good?

barrie is solid defensively, slightly below average. not poor. and would do a lot better if he had even as good partners as dekeyser has had.

41.44%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - QUINCEY,KYLE
26.22%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - ERICSSON,JONATHAN
10.97%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - MARCHENKO,ALEXEY
6.92%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - GREEN,MIKE

It's like Detroit is just floating him along on a cushion of stupendousness, right?

no coach or system can create the kind of impact barrie can do offensively.

Compare Barrie to Green in Washington, and then here. I think if Barrie had to play in a system where they cared about defense his numbers would drop, like Green's did when he moved to a system that cared about defense.

Colorado has gone 25th, 26th and 28th the last three years in terms of SA/g. They aren't trying to play defense at all.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Here's why I like +/- a little bit: It gives you some pieces of a logic puzzle. For example, according to you Nick Holden is a 6, or something. Great.

73.69%EVBARRIE,TYSON - HOLDEN,NICK
5.9%EVHOLDEN,NICK - JOHNSON,ERIK
5.57%EVBEAUCHEMIN,FRANCOIS - HOLDEN,NICK

That was Holden in 2016. Holden finished with a -1, but played almost 3/4th of his ES IT with Barrie, who finished with a -16. Barrie did play over 3/4ths of his ES IT with Holden, but somehow in the other 25% of his time managed to be a -15, relative to him.

How does that happen? Obviously there's something going on this past year, right? If Holden is the problem with the pairing they'd share more similarities in their +/-, being paired as often as they are. Therefore, blaming Holden for being a problem on the pairing seems to be missing the actual point.

+/- may not tell us what that is, but it can tell us what it most likely is not.

no, because barrie was + player 5on5. and did better when he was without holden in goal differential. holden usually wasn't on the ice on the PP and EN situations.

or are you saying barrie couldn't have gotten - any other time than those 1/4th of the ES time he was without holden? players don't get - on EN and SH goals against and barrie wasn't ont eh ice for those situations?

So then no, you don't actually have a stat on that, it's just something you believe to be the case and require me to spend an hour combing through 78 game logs and indexing them to the incidence of EN goals, at which point you'll just ignore the thing entirely and it's wasted time.

Okay. I'll take a pass on that.

i provided you the links to the pure 5on5 stats already. one can look up powerplay stats too from there. corsica has 3on3 and 4on4 stats too. counting those leaves just EN goals.

it's usually you who'll ignore stuff that doesn't support your narrative, actually. like the link which has the 5on5 stats for the avs the past season and past 3 seasons. those are from official NHL data too.

also it was you who brought up the -16 first. you should be the one to point out where those minuses came from.


EDIT. corsica has slightly different method of calculating/scraping stats from NHL data (difference of 1 goal in this case). they have barrie even 5on5. 57 goals for 57, against. 5on4 he had 4 SH goals against on the penalty kill he was even (2 goals for and against) same as 4on4 and 3on3 he was -1. 0 -4 +2 -1 comes out to -3. so 13 EN goals. behindthenet.ca also has barrie at 70 goals against 5on5 (they include EN goals in their 5on5 stats). so that would match. thought they do have barrie scoring 60 goals in those situations but the remaining 3 goals could have come from 6on4 situations.

EDIT2. barrie is #4. you can check that yourself.

EN 1
EN 2
EN 3
EN 4
EN 5
EN 6&7
EN 8
EN 9
EN 10
EN 11
EN 12
EN 13
EN 14
EN 15
EN 16
EN 17
EN 18

and i didn't even check every game. there might be even more of them.

Enh. Not really. The 'variables' wash out when you just leave it within the team. Year over year or team v team, sure. Not terribly meaningful. For a specific year on a specific team, they can be useful. Not as predictive tools, but as analytics post mortem.

sample size is still huge issue.

corsi and shot metrics are more reliable in short samples.

alex edler was -39 in 13-14. by far the worst on the team. second worst defender was -8. next season he was +13. the best on the team. his performance didn't bump up that much from 13-14 next season or even close to that much.

some reading on +/-

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...rse-****-is-the-nhls-official-plus-minus-stat

http://www.russianmachineneverbreak...ts-ditch-plus-minus-and-introducing-ice-tilt/

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/6/5/5602668/why-plus-minus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/02/06/input-versus-output-corsi-plus-minus-stats-hockey-nhl/

and not even as analytics post mortem because they don't tell why the player had such a bad +/- (nor where it came from). like what happened here with barrie. who you thrashed for having poor +/- when 5on5 he had better goal differential than dekeyser.

The past 3 years Barrie is a +6, combined. Mackinnon's 9, Landeskog's 14. I think Hejda and Holden are worse. I don;t know how many other players have been on the team all three years.

that includes SH, EN situations etc. i provided the link which has just 5on5 stats.

Well, if Kronwall and Ericsson and Kindl and Smith and Green and Quincey are as bad as everyone says, Detroit not having the worst GAA in the league has to come from somewhere, right? Especially given that Howard has struggled (and played a lot) while Mrazek has played well, but had his moments of awfulness too.

Detroit was right in the middle of the league in terms of GAA and sv% and shots allowed. If all the other dmen suck but the whole team was average defensively, maybe that means Dekeyser was exceptionally good?

41.44%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - QUINCEY,KYLE
26.22%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - ERICSSON,JONATHAN
10.97%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - MARCHENKO,ALEXEY
6.92%EV DEKEYSER,DANNY - GREEN,MIKE

It's like Detroit is just floating him along on a cushion of stupendousness, right?

i think green and smith were good last season, along with dekeyser. rest were solid to bad. dekeyser had worse goal differential 5on5 than all wings dman except kronwall.

NYR gave up slightly less goals, with slightly better sv% and shots against. they had only two good defenseman, though most probably better than what the wings had. rest were solid to crap. pens gave up less goals, and as many shots against as the wings. on pure defense, their defenseman might be even worse than the wings. it's almost like there are some other factors than just pure ability from defenseman to play defense that impacts GA.

Compare Barrie to Green in Washington, and then here. I think if Barrie had to play in a system where they cared about defense his numbers would drop, like Green's did when he moved to a system that cared about defense.

Colorado has gone 25th, 26th and 28th the last three years in terms of SA/g. They aren't trying to play defense at all.

try to watch some avs games. the gif posted earlier gives some indication why they are so awful in SA/g. issue isn't that they don't play defense at all, issue is that they play it all the time (contrary to popular belief, they aren't run and gun team or fast team). too conservative, they collapse down low leaving the points open, they don't try to overload any side, pressure the puck carrier or outnumber then, avs are most of the time comfortable in letting other teams players set up in the half wall and focus on locking down the slot/middle of the ice from cross ice passes etc. zone exits/breakouts are awful (it's either off the glass and out or barrie skates it out most of the time). they also can't prevent other team from entering the zone well with the puck. so it's easy to get in avs territory, they allow you to spend a lot of time there (even though lot of it's on the outside) and when they get the puck from you, they'll give it right back.

green suffered injuries and maybe some mental block after 09-10 (didn't make the olympic team, another awful PO-perfromance etc.). he wasn't even close to his prime in the last years with the caps. cracked 45 points once after 09-10. on ppg he was occasionally on pace to do better like in lockout season. but even then he did the most damage on the powerplay. that 45 point season came under barry trotz btw. you aren't suggesting that barry trotz teams don't play defense, are you? comparing him to pre 2010 doesn't mean much because he was different player back then.