pharling
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Cale Makar scouting report and profile on DobberProspects
http://www.dobberprospects.com/cale-makar/
http://www.dobberprospects.com/cale-makar/
D Cale Makar - UMass (Amherst), NCAA (2017, 4th, COL)
- Thread starter Hammer Slammer
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Apotheosis
Registered User
Really on the fence about him. The lowered competition and lack of major junior play makes him a huge risk. I think he has Karlsson type upside (similar draft as well) given his crazy offensive tools, but he's definitely a risk. If he dominates college next year, won't have those doubts. But I can see him drop from his previous risings as scouts take into account he's playing in a tier II league. That being said, I would not mind the Leafs taking him in the slightest. I want him or Merkley in the next two years.
DatsyukToZetterberg
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I would love for the Wings to be able to draft one of Patrick/Hischier/Pettersson with their first and then trade into the 15-25 range and draft Makar. Like you said there are questions about his quality of competition that should cause him to drop but the upside is certainly there. If there is a type of player you should risk the boom/bust on it is the offensive right handed dman.
Atoyot
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- Jul 19, 2013
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I'd be very surprised if he went top 10. When's the last time a defenceman that size went that high?
bunch of D in 2012 were around 6'0 at the time of the draft. makar is almost 6'0 now, still has time to grow.
look how good morrissey is doing now. height won't hold him back, hes not even small.
Apotheosis
Registered User
I can see him going anywhere from 7-18. The lists vary a lot and it'll go depend on team need. Wouldn't mind in the slightest if the Leafs take him, but there is a lot of bust potential. The boom is just as high if not higher though.
how is there more bust potential than anyone else? smart skilled players generally don't bust
Apotheosis
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Too many risks for Makar to go top-10.
1. He's plays in a much weaker league. It's undeniable. Yes, players do get drafted out of Junior A. But the AJHL is not a top flight Junior A circuit. Jost and Fabbro were from the BCHL, considered a higher level of play.
2. Already a late birthday in the draft. That discounts some of his production as well, as you would expect him to be better relative to a July/August birthdate.
1. He's plays in a much weaker league. It's undeniable. Yes, players do get drafted out of Junior A. But the AJHL is not a top flight Junior A circuit. Jost and Fabbro were from the BCHL, considered a higher level of play.
2. Already a late birthday in the draft. That discounts some of his production as well, as you would expect him to be better relative to a July/August birthdate.
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Magua
Entirely Palatable Product
The league matters because it makes it more difficult to gauge him as a player, though the WJAC helps his case. He can maybe flash more skill than he'll be allowed at a higher level (though he is skilled as hell).....defending in that league is certainly easier....plus he plays on a powerhouse in that league that makes it harder to evaluate all the little things defensemen have to do. He and his team seem to have the puck a ton (I don't want to hear "puck possession" because that's not my point). It's not that it should be held against him as a negative in terms of assessing his game, so much as he just carries a bit more risk because of it. It adds a couple ?s.
He's inherently risky as an undersized dynamo d man, who is a '98, so that's where the boom/bust comes in. The league doesn't have to do with him being a boom/bust as a player. It just makes it harder to evaluate.
He's inherently risky as an undersized dynamo d man, who is a '98, so that's where the boom/bust comes in. The league doesn't have to do with him being a boom/bust as a player. It just makes it harder to evaluate.
This, he has an amazing tool set for a smaller guy but he's playing in the AJHL, and the highest level we have seen him compete against people is the WJAC. He's never played for Canada at the major IIHF events for his age group.
When people play in lower level competitions, it is much harder to compare them against their peers at higher levels. You can evaluate the skill set, but figuring out how effective it will be when they move up levels is much tougher. That's what makes Makar inherently risky.
Not saying people shouldn't take him high, but it would be absurd to not acknowledge coming from a lower level with minimal high-end experience doesn't make him risky. Compared to Fabbro, Fabbro had much more experience through Hockey Canada. Fabbro played for Canada at the U-18's, Hlinka and the U-17 WHC.
the difference between the AJHL and BCHL is probably like going from the Q to the W or less. not even worth mentioning
Fabbro's numbers were almost identical to makar's. fabbbro also doesn't have some of the tools makar has, he isn't as good of a skater and has lesser puck skills. he went 17OA in a better draft, probably should have went higher, hes a good player nonetheless. makar is just better though IMO so no reason why he can't crack the top 10 in this draft. Jost is a phenomenal player and shows you really good prospects can come out of junior A. makar is like the D version of him and i'm expecting him to do well in college next year just as Jost is doing this year.
he is a late bloomer, just grew a bunch. they are still all 18 year old kids at the end of the day. few months doesn't mean much when everyone is different.
Would really disagree there. Very few top prospects ever come out of the AJHL. It's because it's a weaker league and top young players know they need to go to higher levels of play if they really want to "go for it".
Makar might be a late bloomer. But at the age draft eligible players are, 6 months to a year can make a big difference for development. And the late birthday gives him an extra year of playing as an advantage.
Not saying he's not a good prospect or will be a bust, but there are a lot of risk factors there.
top players know they need to go to less obscure leagues to get more exposure maybe, sure. but that doesn't necessarily mean a top player tearing up one of those leagues is less of a prospect or more likely to bust. besides, nowadays if you are a good enough talent, you will be seen and heard about regardless of where you're playing. it's changed a lot lately in that regard. AJHL/BCHL haven't produced many prospects but it's definitely starting to at a higher rate which says a lot.
while he may be a bit riskier simply because he doesn't have the highest level of experience, you can still clearly see he has NHL tools and smarts and can compare it to others playing elsewhere. and it certainly doesn't make him more likely to bust. it's not his fault his competition isn't as good as he is. but that's what physical scouting is for after all, right? nobody is just looking at the league they are playing in and their numbers relative to that. this is why he is ranked as high as he is right now and Jost went top 10 last year out of a similar league.
Spade
Resident Tool
Quality of competition absolutely makes a difference. There is no question that Makar benefits from a stacked team in a weak league; this means he has more time and space to make plays, time and space that isn't readily available at higher levels of play. It might not be his fault but talent evaluators don't care whose fault it is, they just know that with the AJHL what you see isn't necessarily indicative of future potential.
Until we see Makar against top quality competition on a nightly basis, we won't exactly know how he'll react to tighter checking and equally skilled opponents. Compared to a McAvoy for example, as a fellow late birthday and first round pick, McAvoy was a known talent because he was playing against the best competition available and excelled. Makar has done what he can to raise his draft stock, but compared to safer yet similarly talented picks like Valimaki and Heiskanen he doesn't have the proven track record. That will always be the case for players who play in the Canadian Jr. A leagues in general, even moreso if it's out of BC.
In addition, he's not the biggest or strongest player which is a detriment to his position. He's an offensive defenseman; will he be able to round out his game? Questions like this are all areas or weaknesses that could go wrong and keep him from being an asset. That's why he's high-risk, his floor could very well be outside the NHL.
makar IS the team, he's not benefitting from anybody. let's not get it twisted. what you say is true, but the point is this; he has elite tools and smarts. this will translate no matter who he's playing against. it's obvious how good he is, the weaker competition doesn't stop you from seeing that at all. guy sticks out like a sore thumb.
you don't necessarily NEED to see him play against the toughest possible competition in order to have a good idea how he would do. again, a player with his skill set and processing of the game will not fall off the map when facing slightly tougher competition. it's just obvious.
that remains to be seen but i don't think it will hold him back at all. being a good defenseman nowadays is more about good positioning than being a big body. i think his defensive game is quite fine for what it's worth anyway. he's smart enough to overcome any size concerns at both ends of the ice.
Debrincat93
Registered User
sorry bud but the quality of play does make a difference in how a player can handle a game. If he goes up against strong talent, smart or not, there's no underlying certainty that his game will translate until he shows it. Just because he's smart against inferior talent doesnt mean it will always translate.
case in point - average beer league squads. One player always stand out because he can do something better than the others. Player moves up a league, and sucks. Now, i completely understand this isnt the best example but its an example nevertheless. I've never seen the kid play nor do i know a thing about him. But saying his play will translate no matter what because of how smart he is, is a stretch. If this was the case, he would be a top 3 pick.
case in point - average beer league squads. One player always stand out because he can do something better than the others. Player moves up a league, and sucks. Now, i completely understand this isnt the best example but its an example nevertheless. I've never seen the kid play nor do i know a thing about him. But saying his play will translate no matter what because of how smart he is, is a stretch. If this was the case, he would be a top 3 pick.
There is no question that he is harder to evaluate versus his peers because he is playing Tier II, but this is what scouts get paid to do. I would also point out that while there is certainly questions about how is game will translate as he moves up in competition, there are questions about how all junior-age players will translate to north American professional hockey. It is just a different game all together and this is not something that his unique to Makar.
Makar does have some things that should at least help him as he moves up in class. I think that the skating will be a big asset and the speed at which he makes decisions with the puck will also really help his transition. He appears to me to process the game much faster than your typical Tier II player (similar to Fabbro last year).
In terms of where he gets drafted, the single biggest thing he has going for him is the other players in the draft class. I could certainly see him go in the top ten if only because the other available options just aren't that appetizing to some team.
- Mar 10, 2010
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Good post and both Fabbro and Jost had a chance to crystalize there standing based on how they measured up at the U18's. They are short tournaments but they go a long way to allowing kids from lesser leagues to "validate" vs higher competition.
Makar is a very interesting young prospect and it's really too bad he can't play in the world U18's this year.
Yeah, it is not even just the games with these events. Scouts get to see how they look in practice against their fellow peers from around Canada. So, watching them go through drills and compete for a spot can help from a scouting perspective. I'd be fine with my team taking Makar is the 5-12 range if we end up picking there. Only guys I'd have somewhat of an issue in taking over him are Patrick, Hischier, Vilardi and Mittelstadt. And, even Mittelstadt is questionable. Mittelstadt is similarly an elite prospect who is playing at a level below what he should be. He's a bit old for an elite guy in the USHL and he played high-school hockey this year, but since Mittelstadt has been to Hlinka and the U-18's and shown well against the elite peers of his draft class, people aren't as worried about projecting him.
- Mar 10, 2010
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Stylistically Makar fits with the Leafs young core and I think that would be a very good draft choice for Toronto if he is still on the board when you guys pick.
AustonsNostrils
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- Apr 5, 2016
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i get the risk that comes with him playing in the Alberta tier 2 league but the reward may be huge with this kid. he's going in the top 10, his skills are eye popping. Bet he puts up 30 points as a freshman in Hockey East.
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