Cullen releases his top 300 projected scorers

[Benttheknee]

http://www.tsn.ca/crosby-no-1-in-the-top-300-projected-scorers-1.360216

9 Sens made the top 300 (Low end was 28 points) which seems reasonable.

What I found interesting...like the thread I made a week or two ago, the Sens are tapped out.

The big drops were Stone (64 to 52) and Hoffman (48 to 39). Everybody else was about the same except MacArthur, who missed 20 games.

IMO, I think that Stone (52), Zibanejad (45) and Ryan (54) are going to be higher. Karlsson (67) and Hoffman (39) might be higher. (This assumes 75+ gp)

For interests sake. Toronto has 13, but many in the 30-35 range.

Click to read more...

 

[BigBush*]

Seems reasonable. I do think Pageau will score 30+ points. 12 goals 19 assists or around there.

I think Stone will score around 60 but putting him around the 50 point mark is the safe bet. He should be glued to Turris though who is a really underrated offensive player which is why i think he'll be around the 60 point mark again

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Dont see those big drops happening.

 

[Senscore]

Maybe he thinks Subban will break Stone's wrist again.

 

[Ouroboros]

What are these projections based on? Just some guy's gut feeling?

 

[Stylizer1]

Dont see those big drops happening.

Cullen's article are like big drops in the toilette.

 

[FlyingJ]

Dont see those big drops happening.

It's not that unreasonable. Stone's shooting % during the stretch run was through the roof. He's usually been a high % shooter (see his numbers in the AHL), but expecting him to maintain his crazy pace is too much. Can he shoot more consistently over the course of a full season (he had only 157 shots in 80 games last season)? I think so. But combine all that with expectations and a potential sophmore slump, and 52 points isn't way off (especially in a league where offense has been going down).

And Hoffman, well, we've got a coaching staff and management team that don't seem to have too much confidence in him and regularly demote him to the 4th line (and then complain when he doesn't score alongside the likes of Smith, Neil and others last year) citing him as the defensive liability on the line when his speed is really good for breaking up several chances. If Cameron is quick to demote him again, especially if he wants the supposedly safer option in Michalek, then Hoffman replicating his 27 goal season will be a stretch.

I'm more scratching my head more at Zibanejad staying about the same. Not a little bit of improvement for a now 22 year old just coming off his first 20 goal and 40+ point season?

 

[BigBush*]

It's not that unreasonable. Stone's shooting % during the stretch run was through the roof. He's usually been a high % shooter (see his numbers in the AHL), but expecting him to maintain his crazy pace is too much. Can he shoot more consistently over the course of a full season (he had only 157 shots in 80 games last season)? I think so. But combine all that with expectations and a potential sophmore slump, and 52 points isn't way off (especially in a league where offense has been going down).

And Hoffman, well, we've got a coaching staff and management team that don't seem to have too much confidence in him and regularly demote him to the 4th line (and then complain when he doesn't score alongside the likes of Smith, Neil and others last year) citing him as the defensive liability on the line when his speed is really good for breaking up several chances. If Cameron is quick to demote him again, especially if he wants the supposedly safer option in Michalek, then Hoffman replicating his 27 goal season will be a stretch.

I'm more scratching my head more at Zibanejad staying about the same. Not a little bit of improvement for a now 22 year old just coming off his first 20 goal and 40+ point season?

Zibanejad just had a really good season. I wouldn't bet on him scoring 20 next year, but still should be around the same points

 

[16w]

i noticed Patrick Kane is projected to only play 67 games. i wonder what Cullen imagines befalls upon him that he is unable to suit up for 15 games...

 

[Boud]

I looked at the list and thought about posting here but was too lazy lol. I see Karlsson having a better overall season with Methot hopefully healthy for a good 75 games atleast. I could see him havong more than 66 points. Turris is entering his prime so I'd bet on him atleast having 60 points so that's a safe bet. For Hoffman and Stone, I didn't think they we're off the charts. I don't see Hoffman scoring 27 again and 20 seems quite accurate IMO. Ryan should do better than 54 points though but again probably going with a safe bet,he hasn't produced more than that since in Ottawa anyways.

 

[BigBush*]

I looked at the list and thought about posting here but was too lazy lol. I see Karlsson having a better overall season with Methot hopefully healthy for a good 75 games atleast. I could see him havong more than 66 points. Turris is entering his prime so I'd bet on him atleast having 60 points so that's a safe bet. For Hoffman and Stone, I didn't think they we're off the charts. I don't see Hoffman scoring 27 again and 20 seems quite accurate IMO. Ryan should do better than 54 points though but again probably going with a safe bet,he hasn't produced more than that since in Ottawa anyways.

You didn't think Stone was off the charts? I thought he was last season, but that had a lot to do with his defensive play I suppose

 

[SpezDispenser]

I think Ryan will have an outstanding year personally, hope I'm right.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Seems reasonable. I do think Pageau will score 30+ points. 12 goals 19 assists or around there.

I think Stone will score around 60 but putting him around the 50 point mark is the safe bet. He should be glued to Turris though who is a really underrated offensive player which is why i think he'll be around the 60 point mark again

That too. I've always been a big believer that Pageau will have a hell of a season. Just watch...

 

[Icelevel]

suggestion: don't waste your time on cullen crap

 

[WilderPegasus*]

What are these projections based on? Just some guy's gut feeling?

I suspect he's one of those guys who is big on the silly "advanced" stats.

 

[Micklebot]

It's not that unreasonable. Stone's shooting % during the stretch run was through the roof. He's usually been a high % shooter (see his numbers in the AHL), but expecting him to maintain his crazy pace is too much. Can he shoot more consistently over the course of a full season (he had only 157 shots in 80 games last season)? I think so. But combine all that with expectations and a potential sophmore slump, and 52 points isn't way off (especially in a league where offense has been going down).

And Hoffman, well, we've got a coaching staff and management team that don't seem to have too much confidence in him and regularly demote him to the 4th line (and then complain when he doesn't score alongside the likes of Smith, Neil and others last year) citing him as the defensive liability on the line when his speed is really good for breaking up several chances. If Cameron is quick to demote him again, especially if he wants the supposedly safer option in Michalek, then Hoffman replicating his 27 goal season will be a stretch.

I'm more scratching my head more at Zibanejad staying about the same. Not a little bit of improvement for a now 22 year old just coming off his first 20 goal and 40+ point season?

It's certainly fair to suggest that Stone's sh% will regress, however during that stretch run he was also afforded more toi and more PP time to go along with better linemates. The end result was an extra shot per game on average from Feb to Apr

If you pro-rate his shot rate for those final 34 games (2.558 per game) to an 82 game season, he'd have an extra 52 shots totalling 210 shots, which is enough to net 25 goals with a reasonable sh% of 12%.

There is more to it than just regressing his sh%. He could have a sophomore slump, or he could thrive with a year of experience under his belt. I'm more concerned about Hoffman than Stone.

 

[Super Cake]

It is not wrong to think that Stones and Hoffmans point totals will regress a little.

Zibanejads point projection is the one i am most worried about.

His point totals should improve imo.

 

[Micklebot]

It is not wrong to think that Stones and Hoffmans point totals will regress a little.

Zibanejads point projection is the one i am most worried about.

His point totals should improve imo.

Hoffman, while not without cause for concern, could just as easily improve his numbers.

He simply gets shots off and has at every level. He has a good to great shot too. I expect him to get a better opportunity on the PP this season with Legwand gone, and not just time playing the point.

If he commits himself at both ends of the rink, he'll get the icetime he needs to produce. If he gets the icetime, I wouldn't bet against him.

 

[Cosmix]

Hoffman, while not without cause for concern, could just as easily improve his numbers.

He simply gets shots off and has at every level. He has a good to great shot too. I expect him to get a better opportunity on the PP this season with Legwand gone, and not just time playing the point.

If he commits himself at both ends of the rink, he'll get the icetime he needs to produce. If he gets the icetime, I wouldn't bet against him.

I am so glad that Legwand is gone. Now the young guns can get more opportunities to shine 5 on 5 and on the PP. The PP last year lacked movement of the players and consisted on many nights of simply passing the puck back and forth. Having speedsters like Hoffman on the PP will create more scoring opportunities I think. There could be some screwups though as they get taken advantage of by more veteran PKers but I want to see them get the experience than watch old guys who can no longer skate get the PP time.

 

[Benttheknee]

Sophomore slumps generally happen to kids, not guys 22+ so I see no reason why Stone and Hoffman slump.

Zibanejad should break 55. The rest are ok.