Crosby current all time center ranking?

[Bear of Bad News]

We have no way of knowing how Crosby would perform in the West unless we play the "what if" game.

So go ahead and speculate on Crosby's playoff PPG if he played in the West instead of the East. Then we can speculate on Crosby's Art Ross and Hart trophy count if he didn't get injured.

I wonder what is going to have the bigger affect on his all-time ranking?

There's a difference between external forces (the league environment that Crosby plays in) and forces that Crosby had some control over (his propensity to stay healthy). Surely you realize that?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I agree that it matters that Crosby is playing in the weaker conference. Or more importantly, the conference that is weaker defensively. But I think it's a case of "nitpicking the active player while given retired players a pass" to apply this to him and not other historical players. Off the top of my head, Yzerman in the 80s and every Chicago player in the 70s had it easier than Crosby.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

More fantasy stuff. Seems like everyone can get tickets to Fantasy Land except Crosby.

Btw, if you are going to quote CYM, make sure there isn't any cherrypicking going on. There is a reason he choose seven best "playoff opponents compared to league GAA" and not eight because that would have included Carolina in 2009. But why make a sample size larger than it has to be when a point has to be made.

So add in Carolina to the mix and it's 37 points in 41 games. Pretty close to a PPG especially when you consider he was playing with a hand injury in 2013 vs. the Rangers.

So how does Crosby's performance vs. tough competition rate against the other top playoff performers? Only Malkin and Giroux are above a PPG overall so I am sure it rates pretty highly.

And I challenge you to find a Cup winning team that was more reliant on its two biggest offensive stars than the '09 Pens.

Let's have a look at that. We'll compare Crosby to Toews, Kopitar, and Getzlaf, as these four players' careers overlap almost entirely. Others are welcome to run the numbers for Thornton, Datsyuk, Sedin, or whomever else they like. I've broken down opponents into categories, based on their goals against rank in the regular season. These categories are below average defensively (16th or worse in GA ranking), decent (11th-15th in GA), very good (6th-10th), and elite (1st-5th).

Crosby:

Below average: 46 GP. 28 G, 42 A, 70 points. 1.52 ppg.
Decent: 13 GP. 1 G, 10 A, 11 points. 1.18 ppg.
Very Good: 9 GP. 5 G, 7 A, 12 points. 1.33 ppg.
Elite: 32 GP. 9 G, 16 A, 25 points. 0.78 ppg.

Summary: A shockingly high number of games against below average defensive teams. And Crosby has pummeled them, to be fair. A steep decline against "elite" teams. Offensively, Crosby is the worst (by a thin margin) of the four players being compared against such teams. He's done well against "very good" opponents, though the sample size is small.

Toews:

Below average: 18 GP. 10 G, 6 A, 16 points. 0.89 ppg.
Decent: 29 GP. 7 G, 21 A, 28 points. 0.97 ppg.
Very Good: 33 GP. 10 G, 18 A, 28 points. 0.85 ppg.
Elite: 37 GP. 12 G, 18 A, 30 points. 0.81 ppg.

Summary: His playmaking against the "very good" teams has been weak. Has performed significantly better against "elite" teams, which forms his largest sample size. Has not exploited "tomato cans" to the extent that Crosby has.

Edit: In my original numbers I only credited Toews with 8 assists against "Very Good" teams. The actual total is 18. So in fact he has not been a worse playmaker against those teams, I shorted him 10 assists. I apologize for the error.

Kopitar:

Below average: No games played.
Decent: 13 GP. 2 G, 8 A, 10 points. 0.77 ppg.
Very Good: 25 GP. 7 G, 15 A, 22 points. 0.88 ppg.
Elite: 32 GP. 9 G, 19 A, 28 points. 0.88 ppg.

Summary: A consistently strong point producer, and has never once had the luxury of a weak opponent.

Getzlaf:

Below average: 12 GP. 5 G, 12 A, 17 points. 1.42 ppg.
Decent: 14 GP. 3 G, 10 A, 13 points. 0.93 ppg.
Very Good: 15 GP. 5 G, 8 A, 13 points. 0.87 ppg.
Elite: 56 GP. 14 G, 37 A, 51 points. 0.91 ppg*

*Note: Includes two points in a 7-game series against #1 ranked defense Calgary in 2005-06. Getzlaf was a rookie. None of the other three players made the playoffs in their rookie seasons. His average is 1.00 ppg if this season is removed.

Summary: Easily the toughest road to hoe out of all four of these players. The best offensive player against elite opponents of the group. In the few games he's played against weak teams, he's smoked them in Crosby-like fashion.

---

When it comes to elite opponents in the playoffs, Crosby is the weakest offensively, and arguably defensively as well depending on your opinion of Getzlaf. Toews and Kopitar have both out-produced Crosby and certainly been more effective defensively against top-end teams. Nothing "fantasy land" occurring here.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Let's have a look at that. We'll compare Crosby to Toews, Kopitar, and Getzlaf, as these four players' careers overlap almost entirely. Others are welcome to run the numbers for Thornton, Datsyuk, Sedin, or whomever else they like. I've broken down opponents into categories, based on their goals against rank in the regular season. These categories are below average defensively (16th or worse in GA ranking), decent (11th-15th in GA), very good (6th-10th), and elite (1st-5th).

Crosby:

Below average: 46 GP. 28 G, 42 A, 70 points. 1.52 ppg.
Decent: 13 GP. 1 G, 10 A, 11 points. 1.18 ppg.
Very Good: 9 GP. 5 G, 7 A, 12 points. 1.33 ppg.
Elite: 32 GP. 9 G, 16 A, 25 points. 0.78 ppg.

Summary: A shockingly high number of games against below average defensive teams. And Crosby has pummeled them, to be fair. A steep decline against "elite" teams. Offensively, Crosby is the worst (by a thin margin) of the four players being compared against such teams. He's done well against "very good" opponents, though the sample size is small.

Toews:

Below average: 18 GP. 10 G, 6 A, 16 points. 0.89 ppg.
Decent: 29 GP. 7 G, 21 A, 28 points. 0.97 ppg.
Very Good: 33 GP. 10 G, 8 A, 18 points. 0.55 ppg.
Elite: 37 GP. 12 G, 18 A, 30 points. 0.81 ppg.

Summary: His playmaking against the "very good" teams has been weak. Has performed significantly better against "elite" teams, which forms his largest sample size. Has not exploited "tomato cans" to the extent that Crosby has.

Kopitar:

Below average: No games played.
Decent: 13 GP. 2 G, 8 A, 10 points. 0.77 ppg.
Very Good: 25 GP. 7 G, 15 A, 22 points. 0.88 ppg.
Elite: 32 GP. 9 G, 19 A, 28 points. 0.88 ppg.

Summary: A consistently strong point producer, and has never once had the luxury of a weak opponent.

Getzlaf:

Below average: 12 GP. 5 G, 12 A, 17 points. 1.42 ppg.
Decent: 14 GP. 3 G, 10 A, 13 points. 0.93 ppg.
Very Good: 15 GP. 5 G, 8 A, 13 points. 0.87 ppg.
Elite: 56 GP. 14 G, 37 A, 51 points. 0.91 ppg*

*Note: Includes two points in a 7-game series against #1 ranked defense Calgary in 2005-06. Getzlaf was a rookie. None of the other three players made the playoffs in their rookie seasons. His average is 1.00 ppg if this season is removed.

Summary: Easily the toughest road to hoe out of all four of these players. The best offensive player against elite opponents of the group. In the few games he's played against weak teams, he's smoked them in Crosby-like fashion.

---

When it comes to elite opponents in the playoffs, Crosby is the weakest offensively, and arguably defensively as well depending on your opinion of Getzlaf. Toews and Kopitar have both out-produced Crosby and certainly been more effective defensively against top-end teams. Nothing "fantasy land" occurring here.

How does Kopitar have no games against below average teams?

 

[MXD]

We have no way of knowing how Crosby would perform in the West unless we play the "what if" game.

So go ahead and speculate on Crosby's playoff PPG if he played in the West instead of the East. Then we can speculate on Crosby's Art Ross and Hart trophy count if he didn't get injured.

I wonder what is going to have the bigger affect on his all-time ranking?

Well...
There were very specific arguments made about two players in particular in the last HOH Top Players project (St-Louis and Ovechkin) regarding the strength or lackthereof.

Extrapolating about Crosby's playoffs in the WC is probably a no go, but it has to be said that he indeed played in the somewhat weakest (or least tight-checking) conference.

Truth to be told, I don't think it matters much, especially if he's being compared to a player like Steve Yzerman.

 

[MXD]

How does Kopitar have no games against below average teams?

They finished 7th, 8th, 5th and 6th in their Conference.

Teams better than them could have been weaker defensively, but apparently, it's not the case.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So basically, Toews is terrible against "above average" defensive teams, but better against "elitr" defensive teams?

Small sample sizes, etc

 

[Canadiens1958]

Crosby vs the West

We have no way of knowing how Crosby would perform in the West unless we play the "what if" game.

So go ahead and speculate on Crosby's playoff PPG if he played in the West instead of the East. Then we can speculate on Crosby's Art Ross and Hart trophy count if he didn't get injured.

I wonder what is going to have the bigger affect on his all-time ranking?

Not a what if game but simply putting pen to paper and doing the research. Following is a foundation that provides a glimpse.

Starting with the 2015-16 NHL regular season we see that to date Sidney Crosby has played 76 of 77 Pittsburgh games, missing one against Columbus. All 28 games against Western teams have been played(each Eastern team plays each western team twice, home and away, 14 Western teams). The following is the data to date.

Sidney Crosby 2015-16 vs Western teams 28 games 12G + 15A = 27PTS
non playoff teams 12 games 5G + 6A = 11PTS
playoff teams 16 games 7G + 9A = 16PTS
Sidney Crosby 2015-16 vs Eastern teams 48 games 20G + 33A = 53PTS

To date vs Western teams 0.96PPG, vs Eastern teams 1.10PPG. Numbers speak for themselves.
Others are welcome to do the earlier years.

 

[edinson]

Not a what if game but simply putting pen to paper and doing the research. Following is a foundation that provides a glimpse.

Starting with the 2015-16 NHL regular season we see that to date Sidney Crosby has played 76 of 77 Pittsburgh games, missing one against Columbus. All 28 games against Western teams have been played(each Eastern team plays each western team twice, home and away, 14 Western teams). The following is the data to date.

Sidney Crosby 2015-16 vs Western teams 28 games 12G + 15A = 27PTS
non playoff teams 12 games 5G + 6A = 11PTS
playoff teams 16 games 7G + 9A = 16PTS
Sidney Crosby 2015-16 vs Eastern teams 48 games 20G + 33A = 53PTS

To date vs Western teams 0.96PPG, vs Eastern teams 1.10PPG. Numbers speak for themselves.
Others are welcome to do the earlier years.

Career numbers:
vs West 152 65 113 178
vs East 551 269 486 755

from hockeyreference.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Thank You

Career numbers:
vs West 152 65 113 178
vs East 551 269 486 755

from hockeyreference.

Thank you. I was curious about the playoff / non playoff breakdown for this season.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

How does Kopitar have no games against below average teams?

The worst defensive team Kopitar has ever played in the playoffs (using regular season GA as the measuring stick) is the 2014 Blackhawks, who were 13th ranked.

So basically, Toews is terrible against "above average" defensive teams, but better against "elitr" defensive teams?

Small sample sizes, etc

I made an error in Toews' calculation. He has 18 assists against "very good" defensive teams, not 8. I have edited the above post. Sorry for the mistake.

I think the sample size is large enough to be relevant though. It includes six separate playoff series spread over four different seasons, in the case of Toews. Quite similar to Crosby and Kopitar. While deeper digging can of course be done to further examine the point totals and opponents they came against, none of the players evaluated consistently ran into the same defensive juggernaut in a manner that could potentially give misleading results.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

I agree that it matters that Crosby is playing in the weaker conference. Or more importantly, the conference that is weaker defensively. But I think it's a case of "nitpicking the active player while given retired players a pass" to apply this to him and not other historical players. Off the top of my head, Yzerman in the 80s and every Chicago player in the 70s had it easier than Crosby.

It's not nitpicking when they key argument in Crosby's favour is how offensively dominant he has been compared to his peers.

Look at the numbers posted above by edinson. Crosby averages significantly more points-per-game against the East than the West. 112 points/82 games against the East, shrinking to 96 points/82 games against the West. A 16 point difference. 78% of his career games against the East lets us extrapolate that he is probably getting an extra dozen points per season by playing in the East.

Now, I don't personally care about 12 measly extra regular season points. However, there is a contingent of people in this discussion who immediately and endlessly trumpet top-10 finishes/top-3 finishes/Art Ross winning margins as Crosby's crucial advantage over Yzerman/Sakic/Trottier. Acknowledging a conference disparity and hacking off 12 points from his full-season totals would be highly inconvenient for this crew, as it would seemingly cost Crosby one Art Ross, severely diminish the margin of victory for another, and remove multiple top-3 points finishes.

 

[The Panther]

He led the playoffs in scoring. The only reason he didn't win was the Penguins lost to Detroit. I'm NOT saying he SHOULD have won the CS, rather he was good enough to have been awarded it had the Pens prevailed. He had a very strong overall run. Especially for a 20 year old.

Yeah, you don't get sympathy votes for being 20. Yes, Crosby, as I already said, was great in the '08 playoffs. But he was just pretty good in the Finals and his team lost. To win the Conn Smythe, you have to win the Stanley Cup (5 exceptions in history), and you have to deliver in the Finals (yes, Toews in '10 is a bizarre exception... but he won the Cup). Even if you look at the larger picture of the whole playoffs, Crosby had 2 teammates who scored twice as many goals as he did. Since his performance was matched by, say, Marian Hossa, and he didn't particularly play great in the Finals, and his team lost, there is absolutely ZERO legitimacy to the claim that Crosby had a Conn Smythe-worthy run in 2008. He simply didn't. As far as the winning team goes, Zetterberg clearly outperformed him.

(Let's pause to remember that Gretzky set the all-time playoff points record in 1983, and didn't win the Smythe. In 1984 he led the playoffs in scoring easily, with 4 goals in the Finals, and didn't win the Conn Smythe. In 1987, he easily led the playoffs in scoring and set the record for assists in the Finals... didn't win the Conn Smythe. In 1993 he led the playoffs in scoring with 40 points, and didn't win the Conn Smythe. So, those are the established benchmarks. And it's not "Conn Smythe worthy" to have a good run for three rounds. You have to be the best and make a difference in the Finals, and win the Cup. And if your team didn't win the Cup, you have to way outperform everybody else on your team, which Crosby didn't in '08.)

09? The guy put up 31 points. Yeah he was slowed down in the Cup finals, but we don't judge the CS on 1 series.

Actually, to some extent, we do. As I've mentioned -- and with the notable exception of Toews in '10 -- YOU HAVE TO PERFORM EXCEPTIONALLY WELL IN THE FINALS TO WIN THE CONN SMYTHE. Crosby not only didn't perform exceptionally well in the '09 Finals, he was actually rather poor. 3 points in 7 games and a -3 hardly suggests a Conn Smythe-worthy performance. (Not to mention he wasn't even on the bench when the Cup winning goal was scored.)

Would you also argue that Eric Lindros had a Conn Smythe-worthy performance in 1997? Through three rounds that year, he was probably better than Crosby (who was easily outperformed by his teammate, Malkin, in round three). Hell, while we're at it, Lindros scored points at a higher rate in the '97 Final than Crosby did in '09....

But the notion that overall, Sid didn't have a very strong run, is utter nonsense.

Nobody, least of all me, has said this, so I'm not sure who you're arguing with.

It's absolutely asinine to me that a guy who is only bested by 5/6 (i don't count Pederson and his 34 games) people all time in scoring per game (look at the names), is labeled as a continuous below par player in the playoffs. It holds almost zero water in reality.

Agree. Who are these people doing the labelling that you refer to?

Do you know who has routinely sucked, for the vast majority of his career in crunch time? Joe Thornton. I don't hear him being raked over the coals.

Oh, I agree. Don't worry, I've taken lots of potshots as Joe Thornton on this forum over the past few years. Others have too.


Geez, some of you are really sensitive about Crosby. Except for a few nutters, I think the vast majority of people -- even those who fairly criticize Crosby -- on this thread agree that he is one of the great NHL centers of all time, and certainly of his era (duh). Many of us just don't see how he's even close to being a top-5 center of all time, however. That doesn't mean we don't think he's great. It's not 'all or nothing'.

While Crosby was great in the '09 playoffs and performed exceptionally well, he was not Conn Smythe worthy because (a) his teammate slightly outperformed him, and (b) he was mediocre to poor in the Finals. And there is no argument for his being Conn Smythe worthy in '08. That was all I was saying. I wasn't trying to knock Crosby. I'm not all emotionally invested in this. I just report my view based on watching the games.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Geez, some of you are really sensitive about Crosby. Except for a few nutters, I think the vast majority of people -- even those who fairly criticize Crosby -- on this thread agree that he is one of the great NHL centers of all time, and certainly of his era (duh). Many of us just don't see how he's even close to being a top-5 center of all time, however. That doesn't mean we don't think he's great. It's not 'all or nothing'.

While Crosby was great in the '09 playoffs and performed exceptionally well, he was not Conn Smythe worthy because (a) his teammate slightly performed him, and (b) he was mediocre to poor in the Finals. And there is no argument for his being Conn Smythe worthy in '08. That was all I was saying. I wasn't trying to knock Crosby. I'm not all emotionally invested in this. I just report my view based on watching the games.

I'm not at all sensitive (not that you suggesting me directly). Crosby is a very polarizing player. He's a guy many people love to hate, but as you said, most understand and respect how good he is/has been. I RARELY venture outside this section, by the numbers and the ATD sections for the sake of my sanity and dealing with many kids and "nutters" that frequent the majority of this forum.

I've got zero problem bringing up Crosby's failings and weak spots along the way. He's not immune to the same issues that almost every other player in league history has endured at one time or another.

Early on it was becoming a more mature player, less whining and embellishing to be precise. That subsided over the first few seasons. Obviously in more recent years he's been pushed to the limit and over occasionally from a physical standpoint in the postseason and it's got him off his game somewhat. Teams have a blueprint and it will be interesting to see if he can regain some of his 2008 through 2010 type scoring prowess against the better teams in the league in April/May. Defensively Sid has been a work in progress, which i've touched on multiple times, earlier in the thread. It hasn't been until, really the past 2 years that he's become a reliable 2 way player, who can face tougher match ups, take more draws in his own end and consistently play hard through all 3 zones.

He's never going to reach Gretzky or Lemieux fame, and I never thought he would, even 10 years ago. It was just too much hype, the game is vastly different than it was in the 80's and early 90's. At best, if he has a few more really good postseason runs and he makes a dash at another few Hart's and/or Art Ross' he can get up in the Mikita/Morenz range. I think that is his absolute peak as a player, realistically. At 28 there is still time to add some good feathers to his cap.

Crosby sits at 15th all time for me personally, and I'm including this year where he'll likely be a Hart finalist, 1st team AS C and top 3/4 scorer, FTR.

Top Centers of All-Time

Rank | Player | Height | Weight | Born | Died | Career | Nationality
1| Wayne Gretzky |6'0"|185|1961||1978-1999|Canada
2| Mario Lemieux |6'4"|230|1965||1984-2006|Canada
3| Jean Béliveau |6'3"|205|1931|2014|1950-1971|Canada
4| Howie Morenz |5'9"|165|1902|1937|1923-1937|Canada
5| Stan Mikita |5'9"|169|1940||1958-1980|Canada
6| Mark Messier |6'1"|210|1961||1978-2004|Canada
7| Bobby Clarke |5'10"|185|1949||1969-1984|Canada
8| Frank Nighbor |5'9"|160|1893|1966|1912-1930|Canada
9| Phil Esposito |6'1"|205|1942||1963-1981|Canada
10| Joe Sakic |5'11"|195|1969||1988-2009|Canada
11| Bryan Trottier |5'11"|195|1956||1975-1994|Canada
12| Fred "Cyclone" Taylor |5'8"|165|1884|1979|1905-1923|Canada
13| Steve Yzerman |5'11|185|1965||1983-2006|Canada
14| Édouard "Newsy" Lalonde |5'9"|168|1887|1970|1904-1927|Canada
15| Sidney Crosby |5'11"|200|1987||2005-present|Canada

Without tweaking a few things inside the top 14 (personal preferences), that is where Crosby stands for me right now, factoring in this season.

Nobody outside that top 15 has a resume that is definitively better than Crosby's, IMHO.

Really the only thing missing is a truly dominant postseason run for him where the Pens win the Cup and he also hoists the Conn Smythe. Everything else has pretty much been checked off for him as a player at the NHL level and we haven't even touched on his international success (only player ever to captain all 3 teams of the triple gold club, golden goal for Canada in 2010, best F at 2006 WC, 3 golds and counting, etc)

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It's not nitpicking when they key argument in Crosby's favour is how offensively dominant he has been compared to his peers.

Look at the numbers posted above by edinson. Crosby averages significantly more points-per-game against the East than the West. 112 points/82 games against the East, shrinking to 96 points/82 games against the West. A 16 point difference. 78% of his career games against the East lets us extrapolate that he is probably getting an extra dozen points per season by playing in the East.

Now, I don't personally care about 12 measly extra regular season points. However, there is a contingent of people in this discussion who immediately and endlessly trumpet top-10 finishes/top-3 finishes/Art Ross winning margins as Crosby's crucial advantage over Yzerman/Sakic/Trottier. Acknowledging a conference disparity and hacking off 12 points from his full-season totals would be highly inconvenient for this crew, as it would seemingly cost Crosby one Art Ross, severely diminish the margin of victory for another, and remove multiple top-3 points finishes.

2 questions:

1). How much of this is due to the dreaded "West Coast road trip" which is always brutal to East Coast players, as it only happens once per year and has at least as much to do with fatigue, as it does with quality of competion? (On other words, did Crosby also underperform at home against Western teams)?

2). More importantly, how does this split compare to Yzerman's split with Norris vs non-Norris teams?

 

[edinson]

2 questions:

1). How much of this is due to the dreaded "West Coast road trip" which is always brutal to East Coast players, as it only happens once per year and has at least as much to do with fatigue, as it does with quality of competion? (On other words, did Crosby also underperform at home against Western teams)?

2). More importantly, how does this split compare to Yzerman's split with Norris vs non-Norris teams?

Yzerman's splits during 87-93:

Norris: 190 116 170 286 1.51
Smythe: 96 85 71 156 1.63
Patrick: 98 68 90 158 1.61
Adams: 82 62 70 132 1.61

Not a significant difference, and he actually performed better against non-Norris teams. This includes Yzerman's entire offensive peak, except the 93-94 season.

I will search for an answer to your first question.

Edit: Found the stats to answer your first question.

Crosby at home vs West: 74 38 56 94 1.27
Crosby at home vs East: 279 149 273 422 1.51

Crosby on the road vs West: 78 27 57 84 1.07
Crosby on the road vs East: 272 120 213 333 1.22

Seemingly no difference in the dropoff at home and on the road.

I hope the numbers are correct, I had to sum them up manually.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Not a what if game but simply putting pen to paper and doing the research. Following is a foundation that provides a glimpse.

Starting with the 2015-16 NHL regular season we see that to date Sidney Crosby has played 76 of 77 Pittsburgh games, missing one against Columbus. All 28 games against Western teams have been played(each Eastern team plays each western team twice, home and away, 14 Western teams). The following is the data to date.

Sidney Crosby 2015-16 vs Western teams 28 games 12G + 15A = 27PTS
non playoff teams 12 games 5G + 6A = 11PTS
playoff teams 16 games 7G + 9A = 16PTS
Sidney Crosby 2015-16 vs Eastern teams 48 games 20G + 33A = 53PTS

To date vs Western teams 0.96PPG, vs Eastern teams 1.10PPG. Numbers speak for themselves.
Others are welcome to do the earlier years.

well in

14/15 he had a 26-11-19-30 line against teams from the west
13/14 he had a 27-9-26-35 line against teams from the west
12/13 was the shortened season
11/12 2-0-0-0
10/11 9-12-4-16 (a better PPG rate than his overall rate).

but this is kind of a sideshow and some nitpicking in the extreme as I'm pretty sure other elite scorers, heck almost every player has certain teams they do extremely well against and others they don't do very well at all.

Hedjuk from the Avs was a Canuck killer, Gretzky was mortal playing against Steve Kasper ect......

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

well in

14/15 he had a 26-11-19-30 line against teams from the west
13/14 he had a 27-9-26-35 line against teams from the west
12/13 was the shortened season
11/12 2-0-0-0
10/11 9-12-4-16 (a better PPG rate than his overall rate).

but this is kind of a sideshow and some nitpicking in the extreme as I'm pretty sure other elite scorers, heck almost every player has certain teams they do extremely well against and others they don't do very well at all.

Hedjuk from the Avs was a Canuck killer, Gretzky was mortal playing against Steve Kasper ect......

I kind of wonder if that's slightly overblown because it was cited as a reason for his Selke win in 81-82.

In Kasper's Selke-winning year (81-82), Gretzky had 1 goal and 4 assists in 3 games against Boston. That's a 133-point pace over 80 games, but it's a tiny sample size. One extra lucky bounce and that's a 160-point pace.

In Kasper's Selke runner-up year (87-88), Gretzky had 1 goal and 4 assists in 2 games against Boston. In the Finals, Gretzky had 3 goals and 8 assists in 4 games against Boston (excluding stats from the suspended game). Overall, that's 4 goals and 12 assists in 6 games (2.67 points per game, or 213 in 80). That was better than his regular season pace (2.33 points per game, or 186 points in 80).

As for Crosby, to add to what you posted, he had poor showings in the West in 05-06 (6 points in 10 games) and 09-10 (17 points in 17 games). He was roughly on his Eastern pace in his Art Ross-winning 06-07 campaign (15 points in 10 games) and in 08-09 (19 points in 15 games).

That being said, 152 games isn't that small of a sample size, but it is skewed toward his healthier (and overall less productive) seasons of late (since his early seasons had far fewer inter-conference games).

 

[Saku11]

Off the top off my head Crosby learned to play well against West in 2010-11 , for some reason was weaker before that.

 

[edinson]

I kind of wonder if that's slightly overblown because it was cited as a reason for his Selke win in 81-82.

In Kasper's Selke-winning year (81-82), Gretzky had 1 goal and 4 assists in 3 games against Boston. That's a 133-point pace over 80 games, but it's a tiny sample size. One extra lucky bounce and that's a 160-point pace.

In Kasper's Selke runner-up year (87-88), Gretzky had 1 goal and 4 assists in 2 games against Boston. In the Finals, Gretzky had 3 goals and 8 assists in 4 games against Boston (excluding stats from the suspended game). Overall, that's 4 goals and 12 assists in 6 games (2.67 points per game, or 213 in 80). That was better than his regular season pace (2.33 points per game, or 186 points in 80).

As for Crosby, to add to what you posted, he had poor showings in the West in 05-06 (6 points in 10 games) and 09-10 (17 points in 17 games). He was roughly on his Eastern pace in his Art Ross-winning 06-07 campaign (15 points in 10 games) and in 08-09 (19 points in 15 games).

That being said, 152 games isn't that small of a sample size, but it is skewed toward his healthier (and overall less productive) seasons of late (since his early seasons had far fewer inter-conference games).

This is a good point. Actually, more than 50% of the sample (81 games) comes from after the last lockout when they started playing more inter-conference games.

Here is the numbers broken down:

2013-2016:
vs West: 81 32 60 92 1.14
vs East: 152 64 112 176 1.16

2005-2012:
vs West: 71 33 53 86 1.21
vs East: 363 190 333 523 1.44

So no significant difference since after the lockout when the league started playing more inter-conference games. Still a substantial dropoff during the seasons before that, but now the sample size is quite small with only 71 games in seven seasons.

Not sure what to make of all this but would probably need to see the numbers for the other elite scorers during the era before we can draw any conclusions from it. During many of these seasons, the majority of the other top scorers were also playing in the East so they would have had the same advantage if the difference defensively between the conferences is significant.

 

[bobholly39]

(Let's pause to remember that Gretzky set the all-time playoff points record in 1983, and didn't win the Smythe. In 1984 he led the playoffs in scoring easily, with 4 goals in the Finals, and didn't win the Conn Smythe. In 1987, he easily led the playoffs in scoring and set the record for assists in the Finals... didn't win the Conn Smythe. In 1993 he led the playoffs in scoring with 40 points, and didn't win the Conn Smythe. So, those are the established benchmarks. And it's not "Conn Smythe worthy" to have a good run for three rounds. You have to be the best and make a difference in the Finals, and win the Cup. And if your team didn't win the Cup, you have to way outperform everybody else on your team, which Crosby didn't in '08.)

I've used the expression often of "2 Conn-Smythe worthy runs" when describing Crosby's playoff peak record.

It was in response to a poster who claimed that Crosby has no clear playoff "peak", and that his playoff "peak" was clearly behind guys like Gilmour, Yzerman and I believe Federov? (could be wrong about the 3 players mentionned, but it was early in this thread and specifically calling Crosby's playoff "peak" as weak).


If I were to try and determine who has the best overall playoff record, Roy or Gretzky, I wouldn't just count smythes. I'd look at both of their overall careers, and count "conn smythe worthy playoff runs". Those runs you listed for Gretzky where he didn't win would count, as they contribute a lot to his playoff record.

Same thing for Crosby. That's it.

 

[daver]

There's a difference between external forces (the league environment that Crosby plays in) and forces that Crosby had some control over (his propensity to stay healthy). Surely you realize that?

I am sure if avoiding a blindside hit to the head or a puck to the face were in his control, he would have avoided getting a blindside hit to the head and a puck to the face.

What all this comes down to, and I am positive that save for a slight minority it will happen, is that Crosby will be ranked ahead of players who is he clearly better than on a per game basis even if raw data such as Art Ross finishes is not a clear indicator.

It is clear he has been better offensively than Trottier, Sakic and Yzerman in his prime and/or thru the first 11 years of their careers. Maybe that is not enough to place him ahead at this point, I would have a hard time justifying it myself, but, IMO, it has him very close to them despite a significant difference in career figures.

 

[daver]

This is a good point. Actually, more than 50% of the sample (81 games) comes from after the last lockout when they started playing more inter-conference games.

Here is the numbers broken down:

2013-2016:
vs West: 81 32 60 92 1.14
vs East: 152 64 112 176 1.16

2005-2012:
vs West: 71 33 53 86 1.21
vs East: 363 190 333 523 1.44

So no significant difference since after the lockout when the league started playing more inter-conference games. Still a substantial dropoff during the seasons before that, but now the sample size is quite small with only 71 games in seven seasons.

Not sure what to make of all this but would probably need to see the numbers for the other elite scorers during the era before we can draw any conclusions from it. During many of these seasons, the majority of the other top scorers were also playing in the East so they would have had the same advantage if the difference defensively between the conferences is significant.

Maybe he tended to ramp it up against division rivals, or in the period before the 2012 lockou, he was more successful against teams he was more familiar with, or maybe all Eastern players had lower PPGs because of the dreaded West Coast swing. I think it is well established that Eastern teams struggle with this.

The 81 game post-lockout sample seems to conclude their isn't much difference vs. a 71 game pre-lockout sample that could be explained by the above.

And again, if we place Crosby hypothetically in the West, is he on a better team than the Pens? Does he get the same injuries and miss 20% of his games? I can guarantee you his injuries has had a significantly larger affect on his resume than the conference he ended up in.

And has this micro-analysis of scoring breakdown been considered for every other centre. I would guess the quality of linemates for some of the other centres ate above I'm might be a bigger factor than the somewhat inconclusive data presented here.

 

[daver]

Let's have a look at that. We'll compare Crosby to Toews, Kopitar, and Getzlaf, as these four players' careers overlap almost entirely. Others are welcome to run the numbers for Thornton, Datsyuk, Sedin, or whomever else they like. I've broken down opponents into categories, based on their goals against rank in the regular season. These categories are below average defensively (16th or worse in GA ranking), decent (11th-15th in GA), very good (6th-10th), and elite (1st-5th).

Crosby:

Below average: 46 GP. 28 G, 42 A, 70 points. 1.52 ppg.
Decent: 13 GP. 1 G, 10 A, 11 points. 1.18 ppg.
Very Good: 9 GP. 5 G, 7 A, 12 points. 1.33 ppg.
Elite: 32 GP. 9 G, 16 A, 25 points. 0.78 ppg.

Summary: A shockingly high number of games against below average defensive teams. And Crosby has pummeled them, to be fair. A steep decline against "elite" teams. Offensively, Crosby is the worst (by a thin margin) of the four players being compared against such teams. He's done well against "very good" opponents, though the sample size is small.

Toews:

Below average: 18 GP. 10 G, 6 A, 16 points. 0.89 ppg.
Decent: 29 GP. 7 G, 21 A, 28 points. 0.97 ppg.
Very Good: 33 GP. 10 G, 18 A, 28 points. 0.85 ppg.
Elite: 37 GP. 12 G, 18 A, 30 points. 0.81 ppg.

Summary: His playmaking against the "very good" teams has been weak. Has performed significantly better against "elite" teams, which forms his largest sample size. Has not exploited "tomato cans" to the extent that Crosby has.

Edit: In my original numbers I only credited Toews with 8 assists against "Very Good" teams. The actual total is 18. So in fact he has not been a worse playmaker against those teams, I shorted him 10 assists. I apologize for the error.

Kopitar:

Below average: No games played.
Decent: 13 GP. 2 G, 8 A, 10 points. 0.77 ppg.
Very Good: 25 GP. 7 G, 15 A, 22 points. 0.88 ppg.
Elite: 32 GP. 9 G, 19 A, 28 points. 0.88 ppg.

Summary: A consistently strong point producer, and has never once had the luxury of a weak opponent.

Getzlaf:

Below average: 12 GP. 5 G, 12 A, 17 points. 1.42 ppg.
Decent: 14 GP. 3 G, 10 A, 13 points. 0.93 ppg.
Very Good: 15 GP. 5 G, 8 A, 13 points. 0.87 ppg.
Elite: 56 GP. 14 G, 37 A, 51 points. 0.91 ppg*

*Note: Includes two points in a 7-game series against #1 ranked defense Calgary in 2005-06. Getzlaf was a rookie. None of the other three players made the playoffs in their rookie seasons. His average is 1.00 ppg if this season is removed.

Summary: Easily the toughest road to hoe out of all four of these players. The best offensive player against elite opponents of the group. In the few games he's played against weak teams, he's smoked them in Crosby-like fashion.

---

When it comes to elite opponents in the playoffs, Crosby is the weakest offensively, and arguably defensively as well depending on your opinion of Getzlaf. Toews and Kopitar have both out-produced Crosby and certainly been more effective defensively against top-end teams. Nothing "fantasy land" occurring here.

So Crosby is the best against below average, blowing away Toews. He blows everyone away in the decent and very good category and is competitive in the elite category, more so if you eliminate the 7 games against the Ranger in 2013 where he was injured. Everyone steps up defensively in the playoffs. I'll give Kopitar and Toews the edge but not at the expense of a clearly superior offensive resume.

That he is not as successful against better defensive teams is hardly a surprise but there is nothing here that lowers his status as one of the top playoff performers of his era. And similar to his regular season resume, the fact that he has had the worst linemates and offensive support from his team out the four players, IMO, negates any significance to his performance against elite teams.

 

[edinson]

Maybe he tended to ramp it up against division rivals, or in the period before the 2012 lockou, he was more successful against teams he was more familiar with, or maybe all Eastern players had lower PPGs because of the dreaded West Coast swing. I think it is well established that Eastern teams struggle with this.

The 81 game post-lockout sample seems to conclude their isn't much difference vs. a 71 game pre-lockout sample that could be explained by the above.

And again, if we place Crosby hypothetically in the West, is he on a better team than the Pens? Does he get the same injuries and miss 20% of his games? I can guarantee you his injuries has had a significantly larger affect on his resume than the conference he ended up in.

And has this micro-analysis of scoring breakdown been considered for every other centre. I would guess the quality of linemates for some of the other centres ate above I'm might be a bigger factor than the somewhat inconclusive data presented here.

I posted the home/road splits earlier as well, and from what I can tell it doesn't seem like the away trips explain the differences, as there is a significant dropoff in the home stats as well. Still, I don't think too much consideration should be put into this since it could very well be a sample size issue and the same analysis hasn't been made for other post-lockout scorers.

I'm not sure if this scoring breakdown has been done for every comparable centre, but feel free to do it. The more context we have, the better. I posted the breakdown for Yzerman earlier in the thread.