Confirmed with Link: Craig Anderson signs 2-year extension with Senators

[Hale The Villain]

We saw him play 5 months ago, not to mention all training camp, it's not like seeing 10 games first this season would have really made a difference.

The upside potential is that if he continues to play at the level his has since his arrival, we have an inexpensive starter. If that age related downside didn't exist, he's probably a 6 mil per year goalie.

I'm not talking about seeing him play 10 games. I'm talking about seeing him play 40-60 games as a starter before giving him a 4.75M extension until he's 39.

Even if I accept your premise that a good season from Anderson would have garnered him offers that would have prompted the Sens to give him 12M over 2YRs (which means other teams would have offered more trying to get him out of Ottawa), the reward simply doesn't justify the risk.

The risk being that Anderson regresses or just has a bad year, in which case we could have re-signed him for much cheaper (think 3-4M), and possibly for 1YR instead of 2YRs, or just let him walk and utilized the 4.75M towards another goalie or towards improving the team at forward or on D.

So to possibly save around 1M a season for the next 2YRs, the Sens just took on the risk of overpaying him by 1-2M a season over the next two 2YRs, not to mention the risk of him regressing to the point where he's no longer a capable starter, in which case we have a 4.75M albatross backup goalie ala Lehtonen in Dallas or Halak in New York, except Anderson is even older and signed for an extra year than them.

Reward doesn't justify the risk.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

If Anderson has a bad year it wouldn't decrease his salary that much, if he was still unsigned. That would be a short term mentality. His whole body of work in the last three years would be taken into consideration.

Also how is 4M "much cheaper" than 4.75 M?

 

[HSF]

I'm not talking about seeing him play 10 games. I'm talking about seeing him play 40-60 games as a starter before giving him a 4.75M extension until he's 39.

Even if I accept your premise that a good season from Anderson would have garnered him offers that would have prompted the Sens to give him 12M over 2YRs (which means other teams would have offered more trying to get him out of Ottawa), the reward simply doesn't justify the risk.

The risk being that Anderson regresses or just has a bad year, in which case we could have re-signed him for much cheaper (think 3-4M), and possibly for 1YR instead of 2YRs, or just let him walk and utilized the 4.75M towards another goalie or towards improving the team at forward or on D.

So to possibly save around 1M a season for the next 2YRs, the Sens just took on the risk of overpaying him by 1-2M a season over the next two 2YRs, not to mention the risk of him regressing to the point where he's no longer a capable starter, in which case we have a 4.75M albatross backup goalie ala Lehtonen in Dallas or Halak in New York, except Anderson is even older and signed for an extra year than them.

Reward doesn't justify the risk.

Why would anderson have a bad year? and if he has an excellent year (which is likely especially under our system) he would cost more

Its more likely that Anderson is underpaid than overpaid on this contract

 

[Viletho]

Like how are people like Hale fans of this team? You literally complain about almost every single move that is made. It's very tiresome.

Not to defend him. But you can like a city, a team, etc but not liking how they are managed. Which i think he does.

If he didn't cared, he would not say those things.

Being critics doesn't mean disliking a team. But at some point, if you dislike everything they are doing, which i'm not saying he is, maybe it would be better to start following a team that you agree with their way of thinking.

Myself, i'm from Montréal.. but i never been a fan of the Habs. Sens were the team i took playing NHL 99 at 9 years old and been a fan since than. lol But I was a fan of them, i know i would be against 95% of what they are doing, at leats with my way of thinking today. But i would probably be a fans.

Anyway, i'm not here to defend him he is capable of doing so.

 

[Hale The Villain]

If Anderson has a bad year it wouldn't decrease his salary that much, if he was still unsigned. That would be a short term mentality. His whole body of work in the last three years would be taken into consideration.

Also how is 4M "much cheaper" than 4.75 M?

Miller had a mediocre year for the Canucks - he got 2M for 2YRs.

This is speculation, but if Anderson had a mediocre year, I'd guess we're talking around 4M (not much cheaper) on a 1-2YR deal. If Anderson had a bad year, we're talking in the 3M range (much cheaper).

 

[CanadianHockey]

Anderson hasn't shown signs of decline and he started his career late so its actually likely that he still stays a starter for the end of this contract

I'm not saying this was a terrible move. As it stands, it's pretty low risk and looks to be good value.

I'd just have preferred the team wait til later in the season to further mitigate that risk.

 

[HSF]

I'm not saying this was a terrible move. As it stands, it's pretty low risk and looks to be good value.

I'd just have preferred the team wait til later in the season to further mitigate that risk.

What do you mean further mitigate the risk? under our current system its actually highly likely that Anderson posts some really good numbers which would cost us more money.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not saying this was a terrible move. As it stands, it's pretty low risk and looks to be good value.

I'd just have preferred the team wait til later in the season to further mitigate that risk.

I think they just prefer not to negotiate mid season if it's avoidable. Last thing you need is to lose games because your starter distracted by negotiations.

Like I said initially, I'm surprised we did this now, and not later, but I don't see it as a big deal.

 

[HSF]

Miller had a mediocre year for the Canucks - he got 2M for 2YRs.

This is speculation, but if Anderson had a mediocre year, I'd guess we're talking around 4M (not much cheaper) on a 1-2YR deal. If Anderson had a bad year, we're talking in the 3M range (much cheaper).

This scenario seems less likely than Anderson have a good year especially with other distractions behind him and with a better roster and system implementation infront of him.

If anything now is the perfect time to sign him especially with the good feeling between organization fans and anderson rn due to the events of last year

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Miller had a mediocre year for the Canucks - he got 2M for 2YRs.

This is speculation, but if Anderson had a mediocre year, I'd guess we're talking around 4M (not much cheaper) on a 1-2YR deal. If Anderson had a bad year, we're talking in the 3M range (much cheaper).

Apples to oranges. Miller has been mediocre for a while now.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

This signing seems premature

 

[caymanmew]

Anyone know how to search your old post now? No idea how to do it since the update.


Reason why i am asking is i wrote a summery what for Ottawa cap situation going into next year looks like and i believe this contract is going to poise a major problem.

It is a good contract simply looking at the player and the contract but taking into account the whole team i believe we are in some serious trouble (like we might have to trade Phaneuf or Ryan to fit under the cap) but i am not 100% sure as i cant find my old summery. (and i am to lazy to remake it)

 

[OmniSens]

Ottawa probably only wanted to offer a one year but Andy wanted a second. Not a bad deal. Maybe a tad early to resign him.

 

[Micklebot]

Anyone know how to search your old post now? No idea how to do it since the update.


Reason why i am asking is i wrote a summery what for Ottawa cap situation going into next year looks like and i believe this contract is going to poise a major problem.

It is a good contract simply looking at the player and the contract but taking into account the whole team i believe we are in some serious trouble (like we might have to trade Phaneuf or Ryan to fit under the cap) but i am not 100% sure as i cant find my old summery. (and i am to lazy to remake it)

When you click on the search field at the top left, It brings up some options, one of which is search for posts by a given user, where you could put your username.

Better yet, once the drop down pops up when you click the search bar, click the thingy in the bottom right corner for more options and it gives some 'useful searches' one of which is search your own posts.

 

[The Lewler]

This seems like an odd deal.

 

[CanadianHockey]

This scenario seems less likely than Anderson have a good year especially with other distractions behind him and with a better roster and system implementation infront of him.

If anything now is the perfect time to sign him especially with the good feeling between organization fans and anderson rn due to the events of last year

I don't personally see Andy commanding more money a year from now, even if he has a stellar season, but I do see risk in terms of injury or decline.

Either way, we're splitting hairs.

 

[RandomChickenWing]

Weird timing being that they still had a season to go but the rationale seems like there isn't any of our organization's goalies pushing for #1 ice-time. Hogberg and Driedger seem a couple years away if at all, while I don't see Condon having #1 upside where he'd start 50 games. Two years allows us to re-evaluate our goalie pipeline and perhaps improve on it before his contract is up.

 

[DDT]

I don't personally see Andy commanding more money a year from now, even if he has a stellar season, but I do see risk in terms of injury or decline.

Either way, we're splitting hairs.

Yes, there is a risk of injury, and by not signing him now you're passing that risk onto Anderson himself, leaving him with no incentive to re-sign with us rather than hitting the free-agent market.

 

[BonkTastic]

Ottawa probably only wanted to offer a one year but Andy wanted a second. Not a bad deal. Maybe a tad early to resign him.

Yeah, Ottawa probably were gunning for a 1 year deal, but the 2nd year is just the price of doing business with a proven commodity at a position that ages more gracefully than any other in the game.

It's not ideal, but at the same time I don't think it's bad at all. It carries some risk, but so does every signing. If Anderson for whatever reason decided he wanted to sign elsewhere in the off-season, we are in a much worse position scrambling to find a starting goalie.

 

[caymanmew]

When you click on the search field at the top left, It brings up some options, one of which is search for posts by a given user, where you could put your username.

Better yet, once the drop down pops up when you click the search bar, click the thingy in the bottom right corner for more options and it gives some 'useful searches' one of which is search your own posts.

Ok found that. It is only showing my post from today though.

 

[RedWhiteBlackGold]

I'm happy with this extension. Perhaps in 2-3 years he starts to slow down but he hasn't shown any signs yet.

As well it gives him and Nicole some stability for the next few years.

 

[thinkwild]

Great news for Andy and good value for the team. Andy is a leader on this team, and this can reassure the rest of the team. Sure I guess it’s a risk but great teams take good risks. This seems like a good one to me. Those too afraid to take a risk can end up like Mucker. There’s also a risk that there is no one better available for cheaper or that Andy plays great and gets solicited with bigger offers, or that other players get antsy with one of the team leaders not signed early. All in all, might be riskier not to do this.



It’s rare as a Sens fan when I feel a sense of confidence in our goaltending. Alfie another Sen that aged like fine wine into his 30’s. Black hawks won a Cup with a $5 mil Huet as backup a decade ago. We have lots of youth coming up we are in a good position to take good risks

 

[caymanmew]

Well i am just going to redo my summery on next years cap.

So as of right now we have 57.96 locked up into 11 forwards, 2 defensman, and 2 goalies.

Lets assume Macarthur goes on LTIR. We are now at 53.31

Lets also assume the cap raise 2 million (the average per year for the last few years)

That puts us at 77 million for next year. So we have 23.69 million to resign our players.

We have the following contract ending this year
Turris
Stone
Ceci
Boro
Oduya
Wideman
Claesson

So lets start with the big guys

Turris should get between 6-7. He is a UFA and we have to pay him to keep him. For this lets say he is at 6.5
Stone I expect to get 6. He is a RFA so we have a bit more leverage and hopefully can avoid giving him over 6 (even thought he is probably worth closer to 7)
Ceci is an interesting case. he is a UFA and is not held very highly on these boards BUT he is a 23 minute a night for us. If he fixes his advance states (while still playing lots) and/or has a much better offensive season he could end up being worth 5 or more. I think we will be able to get him under 5 but the potential is their for him to be over 5. I am going to give him 4.5 for this even though i think that will end up being lower then what he gets.


So Turris at 6.5, Stone at 6, and Ceci at 4.5 is 17 total. Take that off our available space and we are at 6.69 with all our forwards and goalies locked up but only 3 defensman.


So safe to assume Chabot will have a full time role by next year so we can add his 0.86 to the cap (now 5.83 left)

Next up is Claesson. I think he is a real wild card. If he has a great season beside Karlsson and shows to be a top 4 D i'd expect him to be worth around 4m. He is a RFA BUT he is also nearing the end of his RFA status. If we want him long term we cant be messing about with him so close to UFA. If he ha a great year beside Karlsson and we want him long term i think we can get him to 3.5 (might be wishful thinking though)

That leaves 2.33 with 5 D. We should be able to get the last 2 for 1 million year no problem.


TLDR: Assuming we are a cap team and the cap raise 2 million we should be fine for next year. If we are insistent on a budget or MacArthur returns to playing we are in trouble. Anderson's new contract replaces MacArthur's and keep us fine but we cant afford to have them both without losing other players.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Don't love it, don't hate it. I expected them to settle a little lower but Anderson + Condon locked up for the next 3 years at an average of 6.6m is a fair price to pay for what should be average or above average goaltending.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

This would be my interpretation of our team's salary structure going into next season.

We have 14 players total signed with 59.250M in salary (not cap) spent.
-Deduct 80 percent of MacArthur's salary for a return of 3.8M bringing us down to 55.45
-Condon is traded with Hogberg or Driedger (we'll say Hogberg) promoted to backup. Net savings of 1.665M. This brings us down to 53.785 for 2 goalies and 11 skaters.
-We'll spend around 6.5M on centre regardless. Whether that is through extending Turris, trading for Duchene, or a wild card like acquiring RNH. That brings us up to 60.285M for 2 goalies and 12 skaters.

Big contracts for us to sign?
-Mark Stone, has 1 RFA year left, let's say he has a 6M+ AAV but is signed for 5.5M for his final RFA year.
-Cody Ceci, has 2 RFA years left, easily commands 5M long term with the minutes he plays for us. Similar to Stone, maybe we get a bit of a discount in the RFA years and get him for 4.5M. We're now at 69.285M for 2 goalies and 14 skaters. We still have to sign 7 more players.
-Mark Borowiecki...1.3M. Dorion has been pretty straight forward about the fact that the team is signing the guy. We're now at roughly 70.6M with 2 goalies and 16 skaters.
-Freddie Claesson likely signs a 2 year deal that is agreed on prior to going to arbitration ala Dzingel and Pageau this past season. Let's say he signs for a similar amount to Nate Schmidt but in typical Sens style we kick the can down the road a little bit by backloading the contract, 2.2M AAV with a 1.8M year one salary. We're now up to 72.4M with 2 goalies and 17 skaters signed.
-At closer look, Max McCormick is in the minors with a 650k 1 way deal on Capfriendly, meaning he's already counted toward the salary structure...good news I guess since that bumps the Sens up to 2 goalies and 18 skaters signed @ 72.4M, not just 17 skaters....
-Okay, so now the Senators need to add 3 skaters to fill out the roster and bring it up to 23 men. We'll just go generic and say that on average each of those skaters will cost 850k for a total of 2.55M to fill out the roster. That brings us up to 74.95M, so we'll call it 75M....

Conclusion?
I would be surprised if we had a budget as high as 75M going into next season. We've floated around 68M the past few seasons, we while we are at around 71M now, it's uncertain how MacArthur's money might figure into things and where our actual budget is at. Some further options for shedding salary might be to trade Claesson if Jaros+Englund push for NHL spots which in this scenario would save us 1M, and to trade Dzingel which when accounting for the cost of a replacement body would save the Senators around 1.3M. If Mac is done for good, we could also consider packaging his contract with a pick or prospect and send the final two years to a rebuilding team. In this case, we'd be paying to have a team take 20 percent of Mac's salary off of our hands for two straight seasons since that is apparently what is not covered by insurance. So that would be an additional 1M. My guess is it might take a mid or high 2nd rounder to execute that sort of deal assuming there was the right team out there to accommodate it. I may have over or under estimated certain salaries so that can also affect the outcome.

At about 5M over where we are at now, we're not in a bad spot for 18-19, but unless our budget is going up, we may have to shed some secondary players, or one big player in order to lower our salary.