Could you build a Vegas like team without an expansion draft?
- Thread starter AjaxManifesto
- Start date
It's Army's dream. Signing a bunch of guys nobody wants and they make a run for the Cup. It's right up his alley.
I mean, why would you want to build a team like that though?
Is that really the path to success? Erik Haula as your #2 center?
You have a pretty solid top 4 defense but nobody that really stands out as a stud guy like Pietrangelo.
I really want to see if Vegas can replicate this next season before I'm convinced that it's the right way to go.
Is that really the path to success? Erik Haula as your #2 center?
You have a pretty solid top 4 defense but nobody that really stands out as a stud guy like Pietrangelo.
I really want to see if Vegas can replicate this next season before I'm convinced that it's the right way to go.
You can't build a team like Vegas and expect the same results. Approximately half of their regulars posted career years, some by extreme margins like Karlsson(52pts), Marchessault(24pts), Haula(21pts), Miller(25pts), Schmidt(19pts). You can't reasonably predict that sort of jump in production from that much of your team.
Karlsson is an anomaly I think, his shooting percentage was nuts. He's been scoring in the playoffs but I doubt he gets 40+ goals again.
I see what you're saying but it's been 92 games now and they're in the Final 4. How long can we claim it's the "taking for granted" theory?
Can it be done? Sure. The problem that it is a very low-percentage play.
You would be trading for a lot of unproven players who the teams have little incentive to trade. Under normal circumstances? Anaheim aren't moving Theodore, Minnesota aren't moving Tuch, Washington aren't moving Schmidt, etc. You are going to be paying a significant price in each of those situations, 1st+something good type prices.
Do Columbus move Karlsson without being able to dump Clarkson? He was only a 25-30 point player, but why does a team looking to compete move a 24 year old centre earning $1m for a late 2nd & nothing prospect?
Etc.
Then you need to basically hit a home run with every player you are overpaying for, at least in the short term.
If we're looking at Vegas, then it's thinking we could have had Fleury for next to nothing. Or we could have done a deal with Florida for Marchessault and/or Smith. Those are the deals that are out there for everyone, for established NHL'ers at decent prices. Like what we done with Schenn.
You would be trading for a lot of unproven players who the teams have little incentive to trade. Under normal circumstances? Anaheim aren't moving Theodore, Minnesota aren't moving Tuch, Washington aren't moving Schmidt, etc. You are going to be paying a significant price in each of those situations, 1st+something good type prices.
Do Columbus move Karlsson without being able to dump Clarkson? He was only a 25-30 point player, but why does a team looking to compete move a 24 year old centre earning $1m for a late 2nd & nothing prospect?
Etc.
Then you need to basically hit a home run with every player you are overpaying for, at least in the short term.
If we're looking at Vegas, then it's thinking we could have had Fleury for next to nothing. Or we could have done a deal with Florida for Marchessault and/or Smith. Those are the deals that are out there for everyone, for established NHL'ers at decent prices. Like what we done with Schenn.
PiggySmalls
Oink Oink MF
- Mar 7, 2015
- 6,107
- 3,516
BluesTraveller
Registered User
Every player needs opportunity, just a question as to whether or not they will take advantage of the opportunity. I do believe that there are players out there right now getting bottom-6 minutes who could miraculously blossom into a top-6 player if given the TOI.
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,108
- 13,013
I get that increased ice time and role is part of the explanation for some of these guys, but it is way beyond that. Karlsson went from being a 6 goal scorer to a 43 goal scorer. He was a bad to middling possession player and is suddenly a damn good possession player. that's not just an increase in role. He has absurd chemistry with Smith/Marchessault, which isn't something that you can reliably predict.
Marchessault saw a 24 point jump in production despite almost identical PP utilization and only a 35 second increase in TOI/GP. Riley Smith is actually playing in a slightly reduced role in Vegas yet went from 37 points (in 80 games) to 60 points (in 67 games).
Perron didn't get a drastic increase in his role and he saw a 20 point jump from his previous season.
Some guys are definitely taking advantaged of an increased role, but there are other factors at play (coaching, chemistry, buy-in, voodoo, an us-against-the-world mentality, luck, etc) that are playing a larger role. It is incredibly difficult to predict chemistry and what players will thrive when given increased roles. Vegas somehow hit on just about every single decision they made. I don't think it can be reliably replicated and I firmly believe that the expansion rules weren't overly favorable.
Marchessault saw a 24 point jump in production despite almost identical PP utilization and only a 35 second increase in TOI/GP. Riley Smith is actually playing in a slightly reduced role in Vegas yet went from 37 points (in 80 games) to 60 points (in 67 games).
Perron didn't get a drastic increase in his role and he saw a 20 point jump from his previous season.
Some guys are definitely taking advantaged of an increased role, but there are other factors at play (coaching, chemistry, buy-in, voodoo, an us-against-the-world mentality, luck, etc) that are playing a larger role. It is incredibly difficult to predict chemistry and what players will thrive when given increased roles. Vegas somehow hit on just about every single decision they made. I don't think it can be reliably replicated and I firmly believe that the expansion rules weren't overly favorable.
Borderbluesfan
Registered User
Don’t the Blues already try this?? Sign lots of 3rd liners hoping they will play at a higher level and sign a bunch of former 1st rounders that just can’t produce hoping they’ll blossom in the Blues system????
I agree with this. I don't like it when players get labeled & their player profile gets fixated. To me, there's definitely some Kurt Warner's out there that never get the opportunity. A lot of it is luck and being in the right place at the right time.
WeWentBlues
Registered User
- May 3, 2017
- 2,068
- 1,807
Tip of the cap to what Vegas has done. Lots of different reasons why.
Karlsson is a stud going forward but his 23.4% shooting percentage is a bit of an anomaly that will be hard to replicate.
GMGM killed it and some of these GMs got caught with their pants down.
Karlsson is a stud going forward but his 23.4% shooting percentage is a bit of an anomaly that will be hard to replicate.
GMGM killed it and some of these GMs got caught with their pants down.
Attachments
WeWentBlues
Registered User
- May 3, 2017
- 2,068
- 1,807
Panthers GM should be fired.
Fired Gallant and then decided they needed to protect 4 defenseman (8 skaters) vs. the 7/3 option exposing a 30 goal scorer in Marchessault.
135 points contributed to Vegas by Smith and Marchessault lead by the controversially fired Gallant.
You cant make this shit up.
Fired Gallant and then decided they needed to protect 4 defenseman (8 skaters) vs. the 7/3 option exposing a 30 goal scorer in Marchessault.
135 points contributed to Vegas by Smith and Marchessault lead by the controversially fired Gallant.
You cant make this shit up.
Last edited:
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,108
- 13,013
Amazingly, this description doesn't even do their terrible decisions justice. They could have protected Marchessault and Smith by going the 7/3 route. They exposed Marchessault as a condition of a trade which sent Smith to Vegas for a 4th round pick. So instead of just losing Mark Pysyk or Alex Petrovic, they exposed Marchessault to convince Vegas to take Smith for a 4th round pick.
This is one of the main reasons I don't think that the expansion rules were unfairly favorable to Vegas. They certainly helped, but these two, Karlsson and Fluery were all given up by teams in deals that almost certainly would have happened regardless of the expansion rules. You can make the same argument about Haula and Tuch since that trade was about protecting several guys and not just one. Vegas would have gotten Haula almost no matter what (but Tuch is admittedly a big bonus).
WeWentBlues
Registered User
- May 3, 2017
- 2,068
- 1,807
I was reading that too about who they protected but I didn't elaborate on my previous comment. You described the situation perfectly. A real headscratcher for sure.
BadNewsBlues
Registered User
- Dec 20, 2011
- 3
- 5
No idea how a team full of castoffs, no 1C or 1D and a goalie with a somewhat shaky history going by the fanbase of his old team can dominate their way to the SCF. I've been told for years the Blues will never contend without a 1C & 1D so WTF, this is such bs to watch all these other teams get awesome through the draft and luck, while the Blues stay the same or get worse through the same means. And now a year we don't even make the playoffs, we don't even get a hig mid draft pick because it was traded away for what amounted to nothing. It's maddening.
Majorityof1
Registered User
A hot goalie trumps all in the playoffs. To win the Stanley Cup you need a solid 1C...unless you have a hot goalie. To win in the playoffs, you need a strong 1D...unless you have a hot goalie. Fleury is a very hot goalie. His .947 and 1.68 are insane. Vegas is only 9th of 16 in Goals For per game. But they are far ahead of anybody but the Kings in Goals against (Kings only played 4 games, getting swept by Vegas, so that skews the stats and they can be ignored). They have .8 less goals against per game than the next team. So they are giving up an average # of shots (not elite D) and are only scoring an average number of goals (no elite C) but they are giving up an extremely low number of goals (super hot Fleury). We have never had that level of goaltending. In fact, if he keeps it up, nobody has. He is set to break records with his performance.
I would hardly say we got nothing out of trading our first. We still have Schenn for two more years. We may be able to re-sign him going forward as well if we can get our act together. Even given where our pick ended up, I am more than happy with that trade.
I would agree that it would be impossible for Seattle (or any other NHL team) to replicate the success that Vegas has had...but i think it's amusing that folks think that Vegas can't replicate this success again next year and beyond. They've managed to lock up most of their core, they still have Fleury for the forseeable future, and have a slew of picks and prospects coming as reinforcements. Even if they win the Cup, why would they take their foot off the gas? They could absolutely continue to play the 'no respect, cast-offs' angle again, and say "let's rub the league's nose in our success". I'd love to see a Vegas-dynasty right out of the box and for that group to embarrass the rest of the league for years to come. I'd big-time LMFAO...At the Blues, and the rest of the league.
67Blues
Got it for Bobby
Do you believe that the players who are all having career years are the norm or they just caught lightning in a bottle this year and/or are giving players better opportunities? I don't doubt that Vegas will be a playoff caliber team for at least a few seasons, but they won't be running like a sawblade through the league like they did this year.
