Connor Carrick : More to give or is what he is?

[Raging Bull]

Carrick seems to be on a bit of a roll right now, 3 points in his last 5, more comfortable in his own zone and seems very capable of getting pucks through to the net. Also seems to rattle the opposition, most times there is a scrum it seems like he's right in the middle of things and is a player the other team despises.

Turns 24 next month, is he a long term fixture on the bottom pairing or is he just depth like he is right now?

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[Brown Dog]

Is what he is. Probably not in the long-term plans.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

I think he's gone after this year because we have better prospects with the same skill set.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Only 23 years old, and has played 163 games. While I doubt his long term potential as a top 4 defender, I still think there's #4-#5 upside. Given he's a right shot too, I wouldn't be so quick to give up on him. Also worth noting that he has more production this year than last in 25 less games (4 goals vs 2 goals; 8 points vs 10 points) ... Over a full season, 8 goals, 20 points for a bottom pairing d-man that doesn't get PP time... Nothing flashy about it but not bad production for a bottom pairing d-man.

Certainly still has some growth to do but I don't think he's peaked, or come close to peaking, at this point.

 

[LeafSteel]

He is what he is and I don't think he is part of the long-term plan.

If Lil continues to develop and we can add a top 4 RHD, I think Holl has more upside and is more likely to be our 7th D.

That pass he threw up the middle against Dallas that immediately ended up in the back of the net still has me shaking my head and got my 6 year old defenceman son shouting "Not up the middle, get it up the boards!!!!!". Stuff like that is why he still hasn't earned Bab's trust.

 

[The CyNick]

6-7 guy, nothing more

 

[thewave]

Carrick seems to be on a bit of a roll right now, 3 points in his last 5, more comfortable in his own zone and seems very capable of getting pucks through to the net. Also seems to rattle the opposition, most times there is a scrum it seems like he's right in the middle of things and is a player the other team despises.

Turns 24 next month, is he a long term fixture on the bottom pairing or is he just depth like he is right now?

He is likely a placeholder. Yes he is doing well but it's not comparable to taking stupid penalties and dumping 225lbs guys on your Starting Goalie. Polak will always take priority.

 

[Raging Bull]

He is what he is and I don't think he is part of the long-term plan.

If Lil continues to develop and we can add a top 4 RHD, I think Holl has more upside and is more likely to be our 7th D.

I don't see the upside with Holl, he's two years older than Carrick and has never shown the offensive upside that Carrick had at the AHL level. If he was more willing to throw his weight around like Carrick he might find himself called back up though, I think that's part of the reason why Babcock likes him.

 

[BayStreetBully]

He’s 24 and 160 GP. He obviously has more to give. Whether that’s enough to stick around is another question.

 

[Tak7]

At 23, he's very old, so this is probably all he is and this is everything he has to give.

Players don't improve much at his age.

 

[meefer]

At 23, he's very old, so this is probably all he is and this is everything he has to give.

Players don't improve much at his age.

Respectfully disagree. It's at this age many Dmen finally find their legs in the NHL. The game at this level isn't played in one particular way. There are always adjustments. As Leaf fans we've repeatedly seen young players come into the league, succeed for a short period of time and then regress because they were not yet at a level of development that allowed them to adjust to the variety of ways teams can exploit the single dimension player. Of course, there are players who succeed early in their careers, but are they the rule or the exception? Whether Carrick pans out as a 3rd pairing D or better is still to be seen. I'd allow him the chance to continue his development curve to see where he might end up.

 

[Jeypic]

I think he’s still going to get better, but liljegren projects to be a much better version of him.. I see us wanting to fill that last rd position with some size eventually.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

More to give, but it's not going to happen here.

He's essentially the defensive version of Leivo. He should be on a bottom pairing playing 18 minutes a night consistently.

 

[Battle Lin]

there is a salary cap and injuries and bad play happen, so you need about 10D and 20 forwards for the year, your 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 D gotta be paid cheaper just like your 15-20 forwards, carrick still a solid depth guy that wont be paid much since hes just ok and not that good

 

[Voodoo Child]

Is probably what he is, but has a chance to reach a slightly higher level.

A 23 year old 3rd pair D with a right shot and inadequate size...but we could definitely do worse for a guy who is going to get less than 15 minutes a night.

I'd rather give him something like 1.25 a year than have to give a guy like Sustr or Fayne 2.5+.

 

[Funk21]

Ozhiganov will replace Polak/Carrick likely and from the sounds of it he would add the Sandpaper and Size Polak has but better skating and offence of Carrick. He also has a higher ceiling in that department too.

My guess we keep Carrick until the TDL and bring up Liljegren depending on how he is playing.

 

[Kiwi]

Ozhiganov will replace Polak/Carrick likely and from the sounds of it he would add the Sandpaper and Size Polak has but better skating and offence of Carrick. He also has a higher ceiling in that department too.

My guess we keep Carrick until the TDL and bring up Liljegren depending on how he is playing.

Ozhiganov has been very average this season in the KHL so saying he's good enough or capable of making Polak or Carrick expendable is a bit of a stretch

If Carrick can be signed cheap I have no problems keeping him even if it's just for depth purposes

 

[firstemperor]

He's not a good skater for a undersized d-man. Not particularly dynamic with the puck.

Gets overpowered in battles a lot, for loose pucks, in 1 on 1 man coverage. He's already not strong defensively. He has a lot going against him and I don't think the upside is there for him long term either.

Might sound harsh but that's how I have felt about Carrick for over a season now. He's competitive but just don't think he's NHL caliber, at least on a good team.

 

[Hoverhand]

He played his best when he was consistently getting in games during the Zaitsev injury, I had high hopes for him coming into the season and I believe he's gotten an unfair shake.

 

[meefer]

He's not a good skater for a undersized d-man. Not particularly dynamic with the puck.

Gets overpowered in battles a lot, for loose pucks, in 1 on 1 man coverage. He's already not strong defensively. He has a lot going against him and I don't think the upside is there for him long term either.

Might sound harsh but that's how I have felt about Carrick for over a season now. He's competitive but just don't think he's NHL caliber, at least on a good team.

This is probably going to be very badly done, I'm not a stats guy, so if I'm wrong, please understand, you're my first victim

Looking at Carrick's numbers from Hockey-Reference, if I understand these things correctly, Carrick is:
1) A positive in both Corsi F% and %rel for the past two years. A good thing.
2) Fenwick and PDO for the past two years are also positives and again these are good things.
3) His zone starts heavily favor the O vs the D. 60/40

My interpretation of these numbers and what I see from Carrick as a 3rd pairing D, one who is sheltered, is that he's not dragging the team down into negative territories, which would indicate the Leafs were being out-chanced when he's on the ice. As a third pairing Dman (for the most part) I'm ok with that type of result. Every team would like to improve the 5/6/7 etc Dmen. So would I. However, as long as they are not leading to play occurring in your zone more than in the O or Neutral zones, then I think they can be seen as doing their job. Carrick has been better than Polak (who Imo, has picked up his play the past 10 days odd) and isn't killing the Leafs in the 3rd pairing and as his game totals grow, I see room for improvement. Oh, and off the top of my head, I'm guessing that with his high O zone start rate he might often be on the ice with JVR and Bozak as they too have high O zone start rates and they're hardly known as defensive stalwarts.

Hope this made sense, be kind

 

[Wafflewhipper]

More to give. More to learn. Over competes at times and gets caught out of position but i like his game.

Just needs some reps and is a good guy on a third pair until our system possibly forces him out in a few years.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

This is probably going to be very badly done, I'm not a stats guy, so if I'm wrong, please understand, you're my first victim

Looking at Carrick's numbers from Hockey-Reference, if I understand these things correctly, Carrick is:
1) A positive in both Corsi F% and %rel for the past two years. A good thing.
2) Fenwick and PDO for the past two years are also positives and again these are good things.
3) His zone starts heavily favor the O vs the D. 60/40

My interpretation of these numbers and what I see from Carrick as a 3rd pairing D, one who is sheltered, is that he's not dragging the team down into negative territories, which would indicate the Leafs were being out-chanced when he's on the ice. As a third pairing Dman (for the most part) I'm ok with that type of result. Every team would like to improve the 5/6/7 etc Dmen. So would I. However, as long as they are not leading to play occurring in your zone more than in the O or Neutral zones, then I think they can be seen as doing their job. Carrick has been better than Polak (who Imo, has picked up his play the past 10 days odd) and isn't killing the Leafs in the 3rd pairing and as his game totals grow, I see room for improvement. Oh, and off the top of my head, I'm guessing that with his high O zone start rate he might often be on the ice with JVR and Bozak as they too have high O zone start rates and they're hardly known as defensive stalwarts.

Hope this made sense, be kind

I thought he was one of the best shot suppression players on the team behind only Gardiner????

I'm sure there was a link up showing that maybe a month ago.

 

[Tak7]

Respectfully disagree. It's at this age many Dmen finally find their legs in the NHL. The game at this level isn't played in one particular way. There are always adjustments. As Leaf fans we've repeatedly seen young players come into the league, succeed for a short period of time and then regress because they were not yet at a level of development that allowed them to adjust to the variety of ways teams can exploit the single dimension player. Of course, there are players who succeed early in their careers, but are they the rule or the exception? Whether Carrick pans out as a 3rd pairing D or better is still to be seen. I'd allow him the chance to continue his development curve to see where he might end up.

My original post was entire sarcastic.

23 is a baby's age for NHL Dmen who seem to blossom much later than forwards. I think it's silly that people are ruling him out already.

 

[IPS]

A placeholder more than anything. I don't see him sticking with the team going forward.

 

[JEI]

Keep him around. Cheap, young depth on the right-hand side with NHL experience.