Prospect Info: Congrats to Kyrou on OHL Player of the year

[67Blues]

Sting’s Jordan Kyrou Wins Red Tilson Trophy as OHL’s Most Outstanding Player of the Year – Ontario Hockey League

Hoping for big things from this kid.

Click to read more...

 

[ort]

How do his numbers compare to some other NHL players who started in the OHL?

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

That’s a terrific honor, congrats to Kyrou!

I also didn’t realize Boyes won it two times in a row haha.

 

[Chojin]

Players who win this before they're drafted (e.g. McDavid, Drouin, Tavares) are pretty much sure-thing stars. Players that win it after being drafted are about 50/50 in terms of being good NHLers. Some of the better players in the latter group are Ryan Ellis, Jordan Eberle, and Alexander Radulov. Cody Hodgson (picked 10th overall) is probably the most notable bust, and the others were typically drafted in later rounds or not at all.

Kryou just finished his draft+2 season, so he could go either way.

EDIT: My bad, that's the CHL player of the year, but it turns out mostly the same.

 

[Majorityof1]

How do his numbers compare to some other NHL players who started in the OHL?

It doesn't work like that. It's not like KHL -> NHL where points translate pretty well to success. Development paths, eras, usage, skill of teammates, etc are so vastly different that OHL success is not a predictor of NHL success. Most of the really good OHL players play some in the NHL. But many of the top OHL guys fall out of the league with 100 or less games played. 4 of the top 10 all-time OHL ppg leader have less than 100 career NHL points. 3 of those 4 have less than 20. For every McDavid (2.55 ppg season) there is a Rob Schremp (2.54). For every Corey Perry (2.17) there is a Luch Aquino (2.25). I have compared Kyrou to Gagner as a warning not to get ahead of ourselves and he put up 2.26.

Kyrou's season puts him 127th all time in the OHL. The 3 players closest to him with seasons this millennium are Matt Foy (2003, 1.941), Kevin Lebanc (2016, 1.954), Tyler Donati (2007, 1.955), and Brett MacLean (2008, 1.954). That is 3 failures and a guy who looks really promising for the Sharks. Also nearby are Strome Spezza, and Dvorak. Tavares has a few seasons not too far ahead, but he did it multiple times vs Kyrou who had one big outlier season.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

It doesn't work like that. It's not like KHL -> NHL where points translate pretty well to success. Development paths, eras, usage, skill of teammates, etc are so vastly different that OHL success is not a predictor of NHL success. Most of the really good OHL players play some in the NHL. But many of the top OHL guys fall out of the league with 100 or less games played. The 4 of the top 10 all-time OHL ppg leader have less than 100 career NHL points. 3 of those 4 have less than 20. For every McDavid (2.55 ppg season) there is a Rob Schremp (2.54). For every Corey Perry (2.17) there is a Luch Aquino (2.25). I have compared Kyrou to Gagner as a warning not to get ahead of ourselves and he put up 2.26.

Kyrou's season puts him 127th all time in the OHL. The 3 players closest to him with seasons this millennia are Matt Foy (2003, 1.941), Kevin Lebanc (2016, 1.954), Tyler Donati (2007, 1.955), and Brett MacLean (2008, 1.954). That is 3 failures and a guy who looks really promising for the Sharks. Also nearby are Strome Spezza, and Dvorak. Tavares has a few seasons not too far ahead, but he did it multiple times vs Kyrou who had one big outlier season.

That’s Peoria Rivermen legend Matt Foy to you, sonny boy

 

[Stealth JD]

he'll look nice in a Sens uniform.

 

[KirkOut]

That’s Peoria Rivermen legend Matt Foy to you, sonny boy

Ha. I was about to say. I remember that name from the Blues farm system in NHL09

 

[Dbrownss]

he'll look nice in a Sens uniform.

 

[67Blues]

he'll look nice in a Sens uniform.

 

[WeWentBlues]

I really don't want to trade Kyrou and definitely not for Mike Hoffman.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I really don't want to trade Kyrou and definitely not for Mike Hoffman.

That would be the dumbest trade of DA’s career.

 

[Dbrownss]

I really don't want to trade Kyrou and definitely not for Mike Hoffman.

If it didnt happen at the TDL, it wont happen at the draft without a major change to the deal structure. I know Thomas is Armys only named untouchable, but I think Kyrou is a close 2nd

 

[yogintheaveragebears]

I feel like after this national announement his stock grew out of reach for hoffman

 

[Ranksu]

That would be the dumbest trade of DA’s career.

Why?

Hoffman last 3 years have put 60ish season and I think he'll crack on future 30 goaltender mark too. While Kyrou is junior player.

You believe Kyrou will become 70-80 point Winger?

You understand our Windows is 1-3 years, not in 3-6 years.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Why?

Hoffman last 3 years have put 60ish season and I think he'll crack on future 30 goaltender mark too. While Kyrou is junior player.

You believe Kyrou will become 70-80 point Winger?

You understand our Windows is 1-3 years, not in 3-6 years.

I'd rather trade 2-3 pieces that are known to be bottom 6 than trade what could be a really good top 6 guy.

 

[Zamadoo]

I'd rather trade 2-3 pieces that are known to be bottom 6 than trade what could be a really good top 6 guy.

I would also add that I'd rather have RH RW Kyrou with his amazing skating averaging 45pts over 3 ELC seasons before becoming a RFA than LH LW Hoffman averaging 60pts over 2 seasons at $5.187mil. Yes, this assumes that Kyrou will step right into the NHL in 18-19 and immediately produce on a top 9 level. Even if he takes a year to develop in the AHL, I would still prefer his 2 years than Hoffman's at their price levels and considering RFA/UFA status after expiry.

 

[simon IC]

I would rather take a chance on Kyrou than go for Hoffman.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'd rather trade 2-3 pieces that are known to be bottom 6 than trade what could be a really good top 6 guy.

So would everybody. Who is going to trade a top 6 player for 2-3 guys "known to be bottom 6". That doesn't describe any of our trade chips, not Thompson, our first or even a guy like Sanford. None of them are "known" to be bottom 6 as they aren't done developing. Nobody is trading a top 6 player for Jaskin, Sobotka and Sunqvist.

I don't advocate trading Kyrou either, but you have to give to get. If the right deal comes along, in my mind, he should be traded. Try to trade Thompson, the 1st etc first though.

 

[542365]

Why?

Hoffman last 3 years have put 60ish season and I think he'll crack on future 30 goaltender mark too. While Kyrou is junior player.

You believe Kyrou will become 70-80 point Winger?

You understand our Windows is 1-3 years, not in 3-6 years.

Alex Debrincat was just a junior player last season. So was Matthew Barzal.

Also, why does Kyrou have to become a 70-80 point winger to be valuable when Hoffman's "60ish" is valuable? Kyrou will be on an ELC making peanuts while Hoffman is making over 5M a season. Even if Kyrou only puts up 40 points, that's more valuable than the 55 that Hoffman provides as he's doing it for 4M less. Kyrou is also right handed, is the best skater in all of the Canadian Junior Leagues, and led Team Canada in scoring in the world juniors. You just don't trade that away for someone like Hoffman, especially when guys like James Neal, David Perron, and Evander Kane will be available in free agency if you feel like you absolutely need another left winger(which we really don't).

 

[STL fan in MN]

I’ll be interested to see how Kyrou looks in camp and preseason. He’s a right shooting RW, a big need for this team but that doesn’t automatically mean he’ll be NHL ready in Sept/Oct...but it certainly helps his chances.

His skating is top notch and he’s quite skilled but for him to stick in the NHL, Yeo is going to have to be able to trust him and there be a good spot he slots into. He still needs to work on his play away from the puck and ideally engage a bit more as well. If he can add a little muscle this summer that’d help him perhaps be a little more confident to engage physically.

I see Thomas as very likely to make the team so if Army’s prediction that only 1-2 rookies will make the team then that leaves 0-1 spots for one of Kyrou, Thompson and Kostin. And assuming Thomas and one of the others make it, I suspect Yeo wouldn’t want to have both rookie forwards on the same line so they’ll have to come up with 3 good lines that work with a rookie on 2 of them.

Camp is always fun to see the competition and how things shake out.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Why?

Hoffman last 3 years have put 60ish season and I think he'll crack on future 30 goaltender mark too. While Kyrou is junior player.

You believe Kyrou will become 70-80 point Winger?

You understand our Windows is 1-3 years, not in 3-6 years.

I would probably say our window is at least 1-6 years but hey who is counting right?

Our core group is around 26 years old, outliers Pietro (28) Parayko (25 tomorrow). I don't see how our core is closing when most of the players hit around 30. If you are worried about cap hits and Pietros needing a new contract, I'm sure that will be done with ease.

Kyrou does not need to become a 70-80 point winger in order to be worth more to us than Hoffman. He needs to be an NHL player next year at 40-50 given usage and help out on our powerplay as well as open the ice up for other guys with his playmaking and speed.

 

[The Note]

I would probably say our window is at least 1-6 years but hey who is counting right?

Our core group is around 26 years old, outliers Pietro (28) Parayko (25 tomorrow). I don't see how our core is closing when most of the players hit around 30. If you are worried about cap hits and Pietros needing a new contract, I'm sure that will be done with ease.

Not to completely derail the thread because this seems to be a discussion taking place in about 3 other threads as well, you’ve also got Schenn to re-sign along with Petro. Schwartz the year after as well. It’s not just Petro. That’s why people say a 2-3 year window, that’s all we’ve got guaranteed with this current core.

As for Kyrou, I think he’s solidly the second best forward prospect in the system behind Thomas. He’s not a sure thing by any stretch, I think @Majorityof1 has done an excellent job, in this thread and others, bringing some context to his numbers in juniors. But his combination of skating and skill is enticing and I’d take his upside over “safer” prospects.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Not to completely derail the thread because this seems to be a discussion taking place in about 3 other threads as well, you’ve also got Schenn to re-sign along with Petro. Schwartz the year after as well. It’s not just Petro. That’s why people say a 2-3 year window, that’s all we’ve got guaranteed with this current core.

As for Kyrou, I think he’s solidly the second best forward prospect in the system behind Thomas. He’s not a sure thing by any stretch, I think @Majorityof1 has done an excellent job, in this thread and others, bringing some context to his numbers in juniors. But his combination of skating and skill is enticing and I’d take his upside over “safer” prospects.

Right, but realistically the only way there is a threat especially with the ELCs coming in would be based on Tavares signing. We have some dead money coming off the books soon in Bouwmeester, the cap is rising, and alot of young promising forwards who will either be on ELCs or team friendly deals due to the team control left with them. If they are worth re-signing which I'm sure they will be we will be able to do so I don't see any way we wouldn't unless Army starts throwing out alot of UFA contracts to second liners

 

[Brian39]

Not to completely derail the thread because this seems to be a discussion taking place in about 3 other threads as well, you’ve also got Schenn to re-sign along with Petro. Schwartz the year after as well. It’s not just Petro. That’s why people say a 2-3 year window, that’s all we’ve got guaranteed with this current core.

As for Kyrou, I think he’s solidly the second best forward prospect in the system behind Thomas. He’s not a sure thing by any stretch, I think @Majorityof1 has done an excellent job, in this thread and others, bringing some context to his numbers in juniors. But his combination of skating and skill is enticing and I’d take his upside over “safer” prospects.

Between Schenn, Petro, and Schwartz we are looking at what, $10 mil in raises? They make a combined $17 mil right now and I doubt it takes more than $27 mil to lock up all 3. I think it will be substantially less than that, but I can't imagine it being any higher. Petro at $11 mil, Schenn at $8.5 mil and Schwartz at $7.5 mil is at the very top end of their values unless we see a gigantic increase in the cap (which would give us way more cap space to deal with the inflation). We currently have $42 mil in cap space for the Schenn/Petro summer and $58 mil in space for the Schwartz summer. We have an amazing amount of cap flexibility for those years. Obviously that cap space will shrink as we get closer and extend/acquire guys, but there is very little reason to think that we won't be able to extend at least 2 of those 3. The only way we wouldn't be able to extend all 3 is if other players step up in major ways to deserve huge raises or we bring in Tavares (both of which would extend the window beyond 3 years).

The only way we don't have an incredibly realistic window beyond 3 years is if Thomas and Kyrou both bust hard (or we trade them for guys like Hoffman who we can't afford to re-sign in order to keep the core together) and we draft poorly for the next 2-3 years.