Cole Division Final: Chicago Shamrocks vs Southern Shore Breakers

[Theokritos]

Chicago Shamrocks

Head Coach: Joel Quenneville
Captain: Syl Apps
Alternate Captains: Daniel Alfredsson, Lionel Hitchman


Cy Denneny - Syl Apps (C) - Daniel Alfredsson (A)
Gord Roberts - Pavel Datsyuk - Sergei Makarov
Vincent Damphousse - Anze Kopitar - Jimmy Ward
Don Marcotte - Brent Sutter - Eric Nesterenko

Spares: Murray Oliver, John MacLean

Lionel Conacher - Chris Chelios
Lionel Hitchman (A) - Harry Cameron
Gary Bergman - Bob Armstrong

Spares: Calle Johansson, Ron Stackhouse

Tony Esposito
Hap Holmes


Special Teams
PP1: Denneny - Apps - Makarov - Bergman - Cameron

PP2: Roberts - Datsyuk - Alfredsson - Conacher - Chelios


PK1: Marcotte - Nesterenko - Hitchman - Chelios

PK2: Kopitar - Sutter - Conacher - Armstrong

Extra PK F: Makarov, Damphousse, Datsyuk
Extra PK D: Bergman
​

Estimated Minutes

Forwards

Player | ES | PP | PK | Total
C. Denneny | 14 | 5 | | 19
S. Apps | 14 | 5 | | 19
D. Alfresson | 14 | 2 | | 16
G. Roberts | 13 | 2 | | 15
P. Datsyuk | 14 | 2 | | 16
S. Makarov | 14 | 5 | | 19
V. Damphousse | 13 | | | 13
A. Kopitar | 12 | | 3 | 15
J. Ward | 12 | | | 12
D. Marcotte | 6 | | 4 | 10
B. Sutter | 6 | | 3 | 9
E. Nesterenko | 6 | | 4 | 10
TOTAL | 138 | 21 | 14 | 173

*Makarov and Datsyuk will take a shift or two on the 3rd line (but not at the same time)

Defense

Player | ES | PP | PK | Total
C. Chelios | 19 | 3 | 4 | 26
L. Conacher | 17 | 2 | 3 | 22
H. Cameron | 16 | 5 | | 21
L. Hitchman | 15 | | 4 | 19
Bergman | 14 | 4 | | 18
Armstrong | 11 | | 3 | 14
TOTAL | 92 | 14 | 14 | 120

*Chelios will take several shifts for Armstrong at ES
**Bergman will take an occasional shift for Hitchman at the end of games/periods in offensive zone situations.



Chicago Shamrocks Real World Team History
In 1930, James Norris pursued the NHL for rights to a second NHL team in Chicago, but was spurned by the league who supported the NHL Chicago Black Hawks concerns regarding competition for fan base. He turned to the American Hockey Association who gave him rights to an expansion team in Chicago. The league had renamed itself the American Hockey League and declared itself a major league, to the anger of NHL president Frank Calder, who branded the league an outlaw league.

In 1931-32 season, their second, the Shamrocks won the league championship. Convinced they should be given a chance to play for the Stanley Cup, they petitioned the Cup trustees for that opportunity. However the trustees would have to convince the NHL to accept that challenge and the NHL would not. Perhaps frustrated by this, Norris once again looked to join the NHL.

In May 1932, the Detroit Falcons of the NHL declared bankruptcy, and Norris used that opportunity to convince the NHL he could take over the team. The NHL agreed on the condition that he disband the Shamrocks who were a thorn in the side of the Chicago Blackhawks. So he disbanded the Shamrocks and took three of the best players with him to Detroit, renaming the team the Red Wings. The American Hockey League reverted to the American Hockey Association after this and once again demoted itself to minor league status.

Click to read more...

 

[Theokritos]

Southern Shore Breakers

Coach: Hap Day
Captain: Dave Keon
Alternates: Harvey Pulford, Howie Morenz

Doug Bentley - Howie Morenz - Corey Perry
Baldy Northcott - Dave Keon - Cecil Dillon
Ilya Kovalchuk - Edgar Laprade - Vladimir Vikulov
Patrick Marleau - Pit Lepine - Bruce Stuart

Jacques Lapperiere - Sprague Cleghorn
Harvey Pulford - Art Duncan
Andrei Markov - Bob Baun

Terry Sawchuk
Gerry Cheevers

Spares: Eduard Ivanov, D; Hamby Shore, LW/D; Thomas Steen, C; Tomas Sandstrom, RW


PP1:
Corey Perry - Howie Morenz
Ilya Kovalchuk - Doug Bentley
Sprague Cleghorn

PP2:
Cecil Dillon - Patrick Marleau - Vladimir Vikulov
Art Duncan - Andrei Markov

PP Spares: Baldy Northcott, Dave Keon, Bruce Stuart

PK1:
Dave Keon - Pit Lepine
Jacques Laperriere - Harvey Pulford

PK2:
Edgar Laprade - Cecil Dillon
Sprague Cleghorn - Bob Baun

PK3:
Baldy Northcott - Howie Morenz
PK Spares: Doug Bentley, Patrick Marleau, Art Duncan

​

 

[Johnny Engine]

Do I have to draw Ivanov into the lineup, or is Sprague's suspension over?

I need my ATD news wire up to the minute!

 

[jarek]

Do I have to draw Ivanov into the lineup, or is Sprague's suspension over?

I need my ATD news wire up to the minute!

Didn't you hear? Mario Lemieux hired Jack Bauer to assassinate Sprague.

 

[Theokritos]

Breaking news: Sprague Cleghorn announces retirement from hockey in the middle of the playoff. Well, that's bad luck for you, Johnny!

Nah, just kidding. Let's assume his suspension is over.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Just back from vacation today and pretty busy getting caught up. Will try to post something in the next couple days. Here's to a good series Johnny.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Initial thoughts on the series...

- Large Goaltending advantage for Southern Shore vs. More Offensive Firepower for Chicago, but I believe the advantage on the blueline goes to Chicago.

- I'm high on both coaches, Hap Day usually had offensive centers and defensive wingers, and he has mostly the opposite here, so there's a slight question mark there, but it's not major IMO. Both guys have strong playoff records. I see coaching as fairly close/even in this series.

- Cy Denneny is one of the keys to putting Chicago over the top...I don't see a RW on the Breakers that can cover Denneny and Southern Shore's good defensive centers will have their hands full with Apps on that line.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I don't really think there's a whole lot to say on goaltending, this is a large advantage for Southern Shore. One thing to note on Chicago's goaltending is that Tony Esposito's playoff woes tend to be overblown. See the below.

Playoff numbers for team success vs. expected:

Rank|Goalie|Series W|Exp Series|Diff|%|Cups|Exp Cups|Diff|%
1|Turk Broda|15|10.34|+4.66|+45%|5|3.07|+1.93|+63%
2|Charlie Gardiner|5|3.10|+1.90|+61%|1|0.28|+0.72|+257%
3|Ed Belfour|19|17.77|+1.23|+7%|1|1.65|-0.65|-39%
4|Johnny Bower|8|6.97|+1.03|+15%|3|2.37|+0.63|+27%
5|Tony Esposito|9|8.43|+0.57|+7%|0|0.76|-0.76|-100%
6|Bernie Parent|9|8.48|+0.52|+6%|2|0.99|+1.01|+102%
7|Georges Vezina|3|2.60|+0.40|+15%|3|2.60|+0.40|+15%
8|Clint Benedict|5|5.55|-0.55|-10%|3|3.80|-0.80|-21%
9|Frank Brimsek|7|8.37|-1.37|-16%|2|2.84|-0.84|-30%
10|Bill Durnan|5|7.4|-2.40|-32%|2|3.05|-1.05|-34%

(Note: These are NHL numbers only, and for Vezina and Benedict Cups refers to league championships. My system can't really deal with games played against western teams because they didn't play a common schedule with the NHL champs. It should be noted however that during the NHL years Benedict was 4-0 in the series against the western champions with the Sens and Maroons while Vezina's Canadiens were 1-1 with the 1919 series not completed. If those results were incorporated it is likely that Benedict's playoff team record was as good or maybe even be a bit better than Vezina's.)

...

I think Tony Esposito's playoff failures are generally overblown. He also has a very strong regular season record, ranking #1 all-time among goalies in regular season GVT. That is in part because of the lack of parity in the 1970s, but in terms of career regular season value Esposito certainly rivals anybody in this group.

Despite the above, Esposito is still not a strong playoff performer, which is why we have drafted a great money goaltender in Hap Holmes who consistently put up great playoff performances. We also have a coach who fits this situation...First, the teams he has had success with have not had elite goaltending. Second, he has shown a willingness to put faith in his backup when necessary in a playoff situation (i.e. 2015 Playoffs vs. Nashville).


To be clear, the above is just explaining Chicago's goaltending situation, this does not change the comparison, goaltending is still a large advantage to Southern Shore.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Looking at the Bluelines, I think this is an overall advantage to Chicago, but let's start with pairing chemistry. I don't see any major chemistry issues with any of the pairings on either team. Duncan usually had a more offensive partner than Pulford (Lloyd Cook), but Duncan is offensive himself, so I don't see why this won't work. TDMM noted in his comments that he didn't think Conacher was a good partner for Chelios, but I have to disagree. It is not the traditional offensive-defensive combo, but these guys are both good enough offensively to move the puck by committee (see Conacher's bio showing 7 finishes in the top 5 of Dman scoring). Chelios also won a Norris with Steve Smith as his partner, showing he doesn't need a highly offensive partner to thrive. I actually think that despite his own extremely high level of toughness that Chelios should have a big partner that plays a physical game (during his career he played with Robinson, Smith, Suter, and Jiri Fischer). Conacher brings these attributes and these two make for a miserable pair to play against.


Player by Player Comparisons

Chelios > Cleghorn - I'd call Cleghorn an average to slightly below average #1 while Chelios is slightly above average

Conacher = Lapperiere - I have these two in the same tier as average to slightly below average #2's (for what it's worth Sturm had them in the same tier as well).

Cameron >> Duncan - Both offensive guys, which is why they are getting compared...Cameron is simply the better player, I have him as a high end #3 while Duncan is more of an average #4.

Hitchman = Pulford - I have these two about equal as strong defensive Dmen low-end #3's/high end #4's, it's been pretty widely accepted around here that Pulford was overrated in the Dman project (again Sturm also had these 2 in the same tier).

Bergman << Baun - I'd call Baun an average to below average #4 while Bergman is an average #5.

Armstrong vs. Markov? - Very difficult players to compare as they play opposite styles, not sure any difference here matters though as both should be seeing fairly limited time.


Chicago has advantages in each of the top 2 pairings, which will see a large majority of the ice time in this series.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

FWIW, I thought Lionel Conacher was a RH-shot when I made those comments about HT's top pairing. Guess that's one thing separating him from Rob Blake (who I still think is comparable to Lionel Conacher all these years after arguing that Conacher wasn't any better than Blake back when Conacher used to be overrated).

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

FWIW, I thought Lionel Conacher was a RH-shot when I made those comments about HT's top pairing. Guess that's one thing separating him from Rob Blake (who I still think is comparable to Lionel Conacher all these years after arguing that Conacher wasn't any better than Blake back when Conacher used to be overrated).

The RHS thing makes sense, I would not have put them together if that were the case.

A few things I that I think put Conacher over Blake...

1. Slightly better Norris/AS Record (see my bio for a detailed breakdown on how I came up with Conacher's finishes)

Conacher: 1, 2/3, 3, 3, 4, 8, 8
Blake: 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12


2. Retro Conn Smythe - I'm not saying Blake was a bad playoff performer by any means, but he didn't reach this level

3. Best Player on Better Teams - There's no doubt that Blake was the best player on the Kings for a few years, but those were mostly poor teams that didn't make the playoffs finishing 5th/6th in their division or that got swept in the first round. Conacher finished runner-up for the Hart twice, in one of those years his team won the Stanley Cup and in the other they finished 2nd in their division and lost in the Semi-finals of the playoffs.

 

[seventieslord]

I know your case isn't based entirely on all-star votes, but I think a guy from the 30s would have to have more than a "slightly" better all-star record than a guy from the 90s for it to be more impressive.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I know your case isn't based entirely on all-star votes, but I think a guy from the 30s would have to have more than a "slightly" better all-star record than a guy from the 90s for it to be more impressive.

I think this is totally fair, we can consider their records equal. I am actually fine with Conacher being in the same tier as Blake (with Conacher perhaps being a little higher within that tier), but to come full circle back to what's relevant to this series, I think Lapperiere is in the same spot, and there is no decided advantage for either team when it comes to #2 Dmen.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

A look at the top 6 forwards for each team...

Offensive Ability using 7yr Vs.X (Chicago in Green)
Morenz: 102.2
Denneny: 96.3*
Makarov: 96.0**
Apps: 92.4***
D. Bentley: 86.6
Datsyuk: 82.5
Alfredsson: 82.3
Dillon: 78.1
Perry: 75.0
Keon: 74.3
Go. Roberts: 74.1****
Northcott: 68.6

Notes:
*Denneny's score obtained from seventieslord's consolidated numbers breakdown is: 100, 100, 98, 96, 95, 93, 92

**Makarov obviously does not have a vs.X number, and this score of 96.0 is an estimate. I think he is at least on par with the following wingers: (Conacher - 96.2, Cook - 96.0, Bossy - 94.8) and could be as high as guys like Bathgate - 101.1 or Ovechkin - 98.4.

***Syl Apps left for WWII in the middle of his prime. He left in the middle of the 1943 season playing only 29/50 games...he was still named a 2nd team AS and finished 3rd in Hart voting. In 1942, his last full season before the War, Apps was a 1st team AS and Hart runner-up. Not including the 1943 partial season, Apps only played 6 seasons before going to war. Therefore, his 7yr vs.X likely underrates him. His 6yr average was 95.1. Looking at the great work done this year at per game vs.X Apps looks even better when looking at per game vs.X, where HO calculated a score of 1.02 (15th all time) and slightly higher than Morenz at 0.99.

****Gord Roberts' score obtained from seventieslord's consolidated numbers breakdown is: 98, 98, 85, 68, 65, 59, 46


Average score for Chicago: 87.3
Average score for Southern Shore: 80.8

A difference of 6.5 PER PLAYER is a significant advantage, and this is without adjusting Apps' score which surely underrates him


Defensive Ability
A much more inexact science, here's a rough summary:

Elite defensive players: Keon/Datsyuk

Very good defensive players: Northcott

Good defensive players: Alfredsson

Above average defensively: Morenz, Dillon

Zero defensively (not a liability, not a plus): Makarov*

Slightly below average defensively: Go. Roberts

Below average defensively: Perry

Poor defensively: Apps, Denneny


Notes:
* I was very impressed with Makarov's defensive game when researching him (mostly thanks to a lot of great information provided by Batis). I think there's a good chance he's a plus defensively, but I wanted to be conservative so I called him a zero. I urge you guys to take a look at his bio to learn more on this subject and to check out Batis' thread in the HOH board about the Soviet PK, of which Makarov was a regular.


Defensive ability in the top 6 is an advantage for Southern Shore; however, I think Chicago makes up ground in this department in the bottom 6, which will be looked at later.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Forgot to look at physicality in the top 6, here's how I would break it down (players in no particular order within each tier)...

Power forward/physical types: Denneny, Go. Roberts, Northcott, Perry

Gritty players: Bentley, Alfredsson

Not overly physical, but not intimidated: Makarov, Datsyuk, Dillon, Keon

Soft: None


Top 6's for each team are pretty even here.

 

[Batis]

**Makarov obviously does not have a vs.X number, and this score of 96.0 is an estimate. I think he is at least on par with the following wingers: (Conacher - 96.2, Cook - 96.0, Bossy - 94.8) and could be as high as guys like Bathgate - 101.1 or Ovechkin - 98.4.

Having Makarov around the same level as Ovechkin offensively in their primes seems fair. Although I would argue that Makarov was the stronger offensive player. For what it's worth here is a comparison I made of how much Makarov dominated Krutov and Larionov in their primes compared to how much Ovechkin dominated Kovalchuk and Datsyuk in their primes. Now I am not pretending that this comparison is perfect but it is at least an attempt to compare the two offensively.

Lets assume that the pair of Krutov and Larionov is pretty much comparable to Kovalchuk and Datsyuk when it comes to prime offense. This is how Makarovs dominance over prime Krutov and Larionov in the Soviet League compares to Ovechkins dominance over prime Datsyuk and Kovalchuk in the NHL and KHL.

Starting from Larionovs breakout season in 80/81 and ending in 88/89.

Sergei Makarov 384 gp, 571 pts 1.487 PPG
Vladimir Krutov 373 gp, 450 pts 1.206 PPG
Igor Larionov 377 gp, 406 pts 1.077 PPG

Over a 82 game schedule.

Sergei Makarov 122 pts
Vladimir Krutov 99 pts
Igor Larionov 88 pts

Starting from Ovechkins breakout season in 05/06 and ending in Kovalchuks last NHL season in 12/13. Also including the KHL stats of all players from the 12/13 season.

Alexander Ovechkin 632 gp, 775 pts 1.226 PPG
Ilya Kovalchuk 625 gp, 653 pts 1.045 PPG
Pavel Datsyuk 601 gp, 649 pts 1.080 PPG

82 game schedule.

Alexander Ovechkin 101 pts
Pavel Datsyuk 89 pts
Ilya Kovalchuk 86 pts

While both dominated their peers in a impressive way I would definitly rank Makarov as the more dominant offensive player overall. Especially considering that Makarov was the best Soviet forward of his generation in international play while I would rank both Malkin and Kovalchuk and maybe even Datsyuk ahead of Ovechkin in that regard.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Time for a look at the bottom 6 forwards...

Offensive ability (ES Vs.X for players which this is available, 2nd no. is 7 yr average)
Kovalchuk: 587 = 83.9
Damphousse: 548 = 78.3
Kopitar: 532 = 76.0
Marleau: 505 = 72.1
Brent Sutter: 408 = 58.3*
Marcotte: 394 = 56.3
Nesterenko: 389 = 55.6

*One outlier season when playing with Bossy, avg of other 6 years is 52.7

No numbers for Ward, Laprade, Lepine, Vikulov, and Stuart...

This is total guess work, but I would put Vikulov somewhere in the Damphousse - Marleau range. Lepine and Laprade lower than Marleau but higher than Sutter, probably in the 60's? Stuart I have no idea...make a bio Johnny!

Overall Southern Shore has the offensive advantage in the bottom 6.


Defensive Ability

Very Good Defensively: Laprade, Lepine, Kopitar

Good Defensively: Damphousse, Marcotte, Nesterenko, Ward, Brent Sutter

Above Average Defensively: Marleau

Slightly Below Average Defensively: Stuart

Below Average Defensively: Vikulov

Poor Defensively: Kovalchuk


A distinct advantage for Chicago here. There is no one in their bottom 6 that is not a good defensive player, while Southern Shore has a couple liabilities who happen to be playing on the same line. Laprade is a great defensive player, but can he really make up for that?


Physicality

Power forward/physical: Stuart, Nesterenko, Marcotte

Gritty: Kopitar, Brent Sutter, Ward

Somewhat Gritty: Laprade, Lepine

Not overly physical, but not intimidated: Marleau, Kovalchuk, Damphousse

Vikulov: ??? - I don't know what to make of Vikulov here, there's nothing in his bio about physical play, corner work, etc., so I would say he's either in the last category or soft.

While Southern Shore isn't soft, there is a physical advantage to Chicago on the bottom 6.


Overall Thoughts on Bottom 6
Chicago has more of a classic setup...a two-way 3rd line and a pure checking 4th line that won't contribute much offensively at all, but will be difficult to play against with strong defensive and physical play. Southern Shore's 3rd line looks more like a scoring line...2 all-offense wingers with a good two-way center. The 4th line is better defensively than their 3rd and is definitely more of an offensive threat than Chicago's 4th, but I think they will have their hands full against either of Chicago's top 2 lines. Chicago's bottom 6 gives Quenneville a lot more options of who to put out on the ice as either line would be fine taking a defensive zone draw or matching up against one of Southern Shore's top 2 lines (an option he likes to have in real life). Day on the other hand, will have to be more careful about how he deploys his bottom 6. Ideally he wants them out there against one of Chicago's bottom 2 lines (especially his 3rd line who would really be in trouble against one of Chicago's top 2 lines), but that is easier said than done. Because of the flexibility Chicago's defensively responsible bottom 6 offers I think Quenneville will have an easier time getting the matchups he wants in this series.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Thanks for laying out the basics on each team, I've had a bit of trouble getting the time and mental energy to sit down and draw up an argument properly. Part of that is figuring out how to compare our middle-sixes - your lines get progressively more checking-oriented as they go down, while I drafted a matchup line early on. Since Chicago's biggest strength is the collection firepower up front, it helps that Southern Shore can give the Keon line heavy, heavy minutes without worrying too much, while the onus is on Chicago's bottom six to put a pin in the Kovalchuk/Vikulov combo.
Tomorrow morning I'll go through your analysis and see if I can refute or expand upon anything - it's been too long and I need to get my arse in gear here.

 

[Johnny Engine]

...and maybe even do a Bruce Stuart bio

 

[Johnny Engine]

Ok, here are a few things:

- I'm high on both coaches, Hap Day usually had offensive centers and defensive wingers, and he has mostly the opposite here, so there's a slight question mark there, but it's not major IMO. Both guys have strong playoff records. I see coaching as fairly close/even in this series.

It should be noted that none of these guys should be unfamilar, stylistically, to Day. If you look at Perry as a grittier, more energetic version of Drillon, or Vikulov as a pocket-sized Sweeney Schriner, it's no trouble to imagine Day knowing how to get the best out of them.
Many of his players spoke of Day as giving them freedom to improvise in the offensive zone, as long as they worked. That strikes me as characteristic of the terms of Kovalchuk's employment with the Devils.

- Cy Denneny is one of the keys to putting Chicago over the top...I don't see a RW on the Breakers that can cover Denneny and Southern Shore's good defensive centers will have their hands full with Apps on that line.

Dillon is the third-best defensive forward on his line, yes, but Denneny's power forward/triggerman orientation should probably be a greater concern for the RDs, particularly Sprague Cleghorn. On the power play, he'll probably see a lot of Harvey Pulford.
This can also be spun into a counterattack possibility for Southern Shore. Dillon's the most dangerous member of my checking line (and actually dangerous, not say, Danny Gare dangerous), and Denneny is more likely to cheat for offensive chances than his linemates.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Defensive Ability
A much more inexact science, here's a rough summary:

Elite defensive players: Keon/Datsyuk

Very good defensive players: Northcott

Good defensive players: Alfredsson

Above average defensively: Morenz, Dillon

Zero defensively (not a liability, not a plus): Makarov*

Slightly below average defensively: Go. Roberts

Below average defensively: Perry

Poor defensively: Apps, Denneny


Notes:
* I was very impressed with Makarov's defensive game when researching him (mostly thanks to a lot of great information provided by Batis). I think there's a good chance he's a plus defensively, but I wanted to be conservative so I called him a zero. I urge you guys to take a look at his bio to learn more on this subject and to check out Batis' thread in the HOH board about the Soviet PK, of which Makarov was a regular.


Defensive ability in the top 6 is an advantage for Southern Shore; however, I think Chicago makes up ground in this department in the bottom 6, which will be looked at later.

Unless new material was uncovered this year that I missed, I would personally bump Morenz, Roberts, and Apps all up a notch from where you have them.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Unless new material was uncovered this year that I missed, I would personally bump Morenz, Roberts, and Apps all up a notch from where you have them.

I'm fine with that...all 3 of those were tough calls for me, and I was leaning between where I had them and one spot higher

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I've been sick the last few days, so just getting caught up now. It's an honor to win the division. Johnny you built a strong team this year, not surprised this one went 7.