Climbing out of the pit

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,739
21,478
Phoenix
"The Pit" was the prison in The Dark Knight Rises, Bruce Wayne climbing out of it has all sorts of character implications in the movie you wanna go all film 101 on it. But for our purposes the pit is this:


upload_2017-12-2_23-3-0.png



upload_2017-12-2_22-59-44.png


1 point in 11 games. Astonishing.



Since?
upload_2017-12-3_0-4-41.png




So yeah I made one of these posts before but it's becoming quite a bit more clear now even with a few recent losses before tonight. I didn't include it, but they are only -8 in goal differential in this period. Before they were -22!


So back to the pit, are we out of the pit? No. But we're at that point where you might grip the next brick or slip off and fall.
 

MIGs Dog

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 3, 2012
14,466
12,268
This really demonstrates how our atrocious start tanked the season.

Vegas started fast, but now have returned to mediocrity and are no longer leading the Pacific.
 

_Del_

Registered User
Jul 4, 2003
15,426
6,738
Even with cherry picking stats, it's a high 70 point pace.
An entire nonrebuilding season with 56 point isn't enough to decide to fire a coach in your opinion, so I'm not sure why you're so worked up about a high 70 point pace. We finished with 70 last year, and that wasn't enough to change. 78 the year before wasn't enough.

And we don't have All-World goaltender Mike Smith this year, so we're obviously going to be worse...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Yandover

cobra427

Registered User
May 6, 2012
9,335
3,370
An entire nonrebuilding season with 56 point isn't enough to decide to fire a coach in your opinion, so I'm not sure why you're so worked up about a high 70 point pace. We finished with 70 last year, and that wasn't enough to change. 78 the year before wasn't enough.

And we don't have All-World goaltender Mike Smith this year, so we're obviously going to be worse...
0-20 start with more talent then last year is enough to fire any, and I mean any coach, including Tip. High 70 point pace, granted is an uptick from where we were, but not very good considering our roster.

As for last year and many years, it was a miracle we had as many points as we did with our crappy roster. Our roster is much better now when healthy and if the young guys improve. Lets see if Tocc can figure it out, he hasn't so far clearly, but I hope he does. I hope Raanta is a 95% save goalie and stays healthy the rest of the way too. I was hoping you guys were right about Tip/Smith, but you weren't (so far), hope I am proven wrong the rest of the year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bonsai Tree

Jakey53

Registered User
Aug 27, 2011
30,097
9,148
0-20 start with more talent then last year is enough to fire any, and I mean any coach, including Tip. High 70 point pace, granted is an uptick from where we were, but not very good considering our roster.

As for last year and many years, it was a miracle we had as many points as we did with our crappy roster. Our roster is much better now when healthy and if the young guys improve. Lets see if Tocc can figure it out, he hasn't so far clearly, but I hope he does. I hope Raanta is a 95% save goalie and stays healthy the rest of the way too. I was hoping you guys were right about Tip/Smith, but you weren't (so far), hope I am proven wrong the rest of the year.

DT is a top coach and I believe will be hired very soon, and Smith sv% this year is better than Quick, Jones, Dubnyk, Gibson and Allen which is pretty good company, and his salary is right in line with those. The only reason we traded Smith was because of salary and the timing of our rebuild.
 

rt

The Kinder, Gentler Version
May 13, 2004
97,296
46,033
A Rockwellian Pleasantville
DT is a top coach and I believe will be hired very soon, and Smith sv% this year is better than Quick, Jones, Dubnyk, Gibson and Allen which is pretty good company, and his salary is right in line with those. The only reason we traded Smith was because of salary and the timing of our rebuild.
My god Jake. Please stop obsessively licking DT's boots. You post stuff like this and I feel the need to respond. Then I'll get called out for continuing to bring up Tippett. If you want the haters to stop dragging him, please lead by example and show your fellow acolytes how to let go. Shhh...
 

BUX7PHX

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
5,581
1,350
My god Jake. Please stop obsessively licking DT's boots. You post stuff like this and I feel the need to respond. Then I'll get called out for continuing to bring up Tippett. If you want the haters to stop dragging him, please lead by example and show your fellow acolytes how to let go. Shhh...

It's not even that rt. Take this exact thread as an example. People just feel like using some sort of stat to create some sort of inference on how the team is playing. What if I told you that last year had the same thing, if we only expand the sample size:

OCT 2016: 2-6-0
NOV 2016: 6-4-3
DEC 2016: 3-11-2
JAN 2017: 5-6-1
FEB 2017: 6-6-1
MAR 2017: 6-8-2
APR 2017: 2-1-1

This season was a 20 game sample size of shit. The 2016 season had a 24 game sample of shit in OCT and DEC. 19-21-5 starting in JAN onward. The difference is that the Tippett supporters didn't bother to laud the positives.

Why in the f***ing world would it matter so much to call it out this year, if the team is basically on the same pace it was last year since the magical point about 11 games into the season?

If this is some sort of, "See, I told you so" - then so be it. Some people have stated they want Tocchet gone. I have yet to state that. I have stated disappointment, but not removal. But I don't understand the point of creating a separate thread as some sort of proof that things are inherently better or worse. Seasons have ups and downs. Over some periods of time, things don't work perfectly for whatever reason. It's things like this that needlessly pump tires of I don't even know who at this point. Whether it is trying to prove that Tocchet is a good/bad coach, or pumping one's own tires of what is going to or has happened, the fact is if it was so important to call out all of Tippett's failures, why is it that when the previous regime had basically the same record from January on, it never gets mentioned, but then an 18 game stretch holds far more merit to hold its own thread?

Anyhow, I think the worst is clearly over. We will kind of settle right back into the slightly below average mold the rest of the way. We have what, 53 games left? So 22-24-7 the rest of the way? somewhere around there.

Looking to see the progress from Strome, Fischer, and would also like to see Wood and/or Merkley get some time late in the season. That could wind up being a cause of a dip, even if we trade players at the deadline (which, BTW, wouldn't that make everything last year all the more impressive by losing some of our "better" players?)
 
Last edited:

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,739
21,478
Phoenix
My making this thread had nothing to do with the past regime, all y'all brought that up :laugh:

I've been making some variation of this post since early November. The point is to demonstrate a clear improvement in the team's play and that if you look at overall numbers on the standings page it doesn't really show what this team is. And as I said in the OP, neither does the team's play since October 30th necessarily:

So back to the pit, are we out of the pit? No. But we're at that point where you might grip the next brick or slip off and fall.

But there are some VERY clear dividing lines and circumstances that make this more relevant than various stretches in the past if that's what all y'all feel like doing:
1. New coach, system takes time to be adopted.
2. Goalie dumpsterfirey
3. Slow starts and injuries from virtually every key player

This is not a comparison thread between seasons, if it was I would have done that ;). It's a trajectory thread. Are we picking our selves up or are we falling back down? Or maybe we just hang around where we're at now for the next 4 months (this wouldn't be so bad either btw).

rt before the season started laid out in pretty clear terms how he thought the season would go in segments. I'm sure you could dig it up. I didn't 100% agree with it but the idea is to identify improvement and see it continue. So far that is what has been happening, in addition to or perhaps even mostly due to goaltending being solidified. And we're STILL without Raanta.

Or as an example, people constantly talk about how tough Vegas is to play and yet we're doing better than they are recently and are playing a TON of close games. But no one is talking about how tight the Coyotes are playing other teams.

If this play continues I'm also going to make some variation on this thread on the mainboard titled The Coyotes are not who you think they are, they are who you thought they were 4 months ago.
 

Summer Rose

Red Like Roses
Sponsor
May 3, 2012
91,099
21,401
Gainesville, Florida
I'm thinking more along the lines of going on a tear early in the new year and using the ever-popular wording of "The Arizona Coyotes are here to burn down your village," but that's just me.
 

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,739
21,478
Phoenix
I'm thinking more along the lines of going on a tear early in the new year and using the ever-popular wording of "The Arizona Coyotes are here to burn down your village," but that's just me.

This is definitely neither here nor there, but everyone misuses the village title and it makes it RAGE!

The burn down village title was for teams that had insane road records.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Lady Macbeth

Mosby

Fire Bettman
Feb 16, 2012
23,617
18,636
Toronto
Hey rt, do you have your post handy where you projected how we'd do each quarter of the season? I couldn't find it, but feel it looks pretty accurate now, going off memory.
 

BUX7PHX

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
5,581
1,350
My making this thread had nothing to do with the past regime, all y'all brought that up :laugh:

I've been making some variation of this post since early November. The point is to demonstrate a clear improvement in the team's play and that if you look at overall numbers on the standings page it doesn't really show what this team is. And as I said in the OP, neither does the team's play since October 30th necessarily:



But there are some VERY clear dividing lines and circumstances that make this more relevant than various stretches in the past if that's what all y'all feel like doing:
1. New coach, system takes time to be adopted.
2. Goalie dumpsterfirey
3. Slow starts and injuries from virtually every key player

This is not a comparison thread between seasons, if it was I would have done that ;). It's a trajectory thread. Are we picking our selves up or are we falling back down? Or maybe we just hang around where we're at now for the next 4 months (this wouldn't be so bad either btw).

rt before the season started laid out in pretty clear terms how he thought the season would go in segments. I'm sure you could dig it up. I didn't 100% agree with it but the idea is to identify improvement and see it continue. So far that is what has been happening, in addition to or perhaps even mostly due to goaltending being solidified. And we're STILL without Raanta.

Or as an example, people constantly talk about how tough Vegas is to play and yet we're doing better than they are recently and are playing a TON of close games. But no one is talking about how tight the Coyotes are playing other teams.

If this play continues I'm also going to make some variation on this thread on the mainboard titled The Coyotes are not who you think they are, they are who you thought they were 4 months ago.

Yes cobra brought it up and in general, it tends to be on either side as to remarks that need defending. While I understand that this was not intended to be compared to previous seasons, it does appear that way when some of the pro-Tocchet/anti-Tippett side bring up stats such as the record over a specific time period, as we can pick and choose what we want to make us look good/bad/indifferent/whatever. As far as comparing to what rt thought the start was going to be - again, why not just PM him or find the original post that had it and drag it up. Because based off of the original post, it did not seem like you were in any way referring to something that another poster had said earlier in the season. It makes things look suspect the same way _Del_ states that the Coyotes had this record in December last year. Why is it that he can't post Tocchet's similar shitty record over his first 15 games? It becomes like we have internal trolls and that is the bias that is clear. I don't think we would be on any different of a tangent with any coach at this point in the season, however, if Tippett were our coach, I think we would have maybe 3-5 more results on our record for 6-10 more points. If we start to play and continue to play productively, then that will show up, and it won't need a thread to identify it...

Have we seen improvement? Sure. Is it worth putting a thread together on something that I think everyone who follows the team is already aware of? I don't know. Especially b/c no one needed to make a post last year about how the prior coach had improvement post- January. Or is it just too convenient to only bring up positives for one coach, but not the other? (not referring to you specifically, but if we are going to spend time calling out the positives of one coach, why wasnt this present last year, if we have been concerned about development on all fronts?)
 
Last edited:

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,739
21,478
Phoenix
I wasn't directly referring to what rt said but I think of it in a similar way is all. Except now instead of predicting I'm looking at results. About 2 weeks ago I said I'm giving it through November to see if things stabilize before looking at coaching staff or the system or whatever. And they have stabilized.

IDGAF if y'all wanna talk about whatever you wanna talk about (within reason of course :P) I was just laying out the motives for the OP instead of having everyone guess :laugh:. What happens after is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Also I thought the Batman analogy was apropos so that was getting posted either way :biglaugh:

My ultimate goal is to see if at a certain point we'll be able to come to the conclusion that the period before the first win is simply not worth considering at all once this season is done. There's a good chance that ends up being the case given the stark dividing lines of what was going on then.
 

BUX7PHX

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
5,581
1,350
I wasn't directly referring to what rt said but I think of it in a similar way is all. Except now instead of predicting I'm looking at results. About 2 weeks ago I said I'm giving it through November to see if things stabilize before looking at coaching staff or the system or whatever. And they have stabilized.

IDGAF if y'all wanna talk about whatever you wanna talk about (within reason of course :P) I was just laying out the motives for the OP instead of having everyone guess :laugh:. What happens after is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Also I thought the Batman analogy was apropos so that was getting posted either way :biglaugh:

My ultimate goal is to see if at a certain point we'll be able to come to the conclusion that the period before the first win is simply not worth considering at all once this season is done. There's a good chance that ends up being the case given the stark dividing lines of what was going on then.

No issues with the Batman part - I am assuming that we will all go to a game and start chanting the chant that is done by the prisoners.

I think it is fairly evident that we can ignore those performances, except for how it plays out in the record. I had to remind myself of that b/c the way we were losing was on a historical level (the blown leads, streak without a point, etc.). But at the same time, everything has still been quite polarizing, as is the case with the last two games - an 8 goal difference is kind of odd. And I feel like that is in a bad way. If we were losing 3-2 and then winning 4-3, that's a significant difference. Or something that if our losses are distributed fairly equally between blowouts and close games, but our wins are only blowouts, does that mean that wins have only come when the opposition is at their worst, and otherwise, we are basically a losing team?
 

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,739
21,478
Phoenix
Given the high amount of overtime games I think it's less polarizing than you might expect. But I haven't totally gone through game by game scores.
 

CC96

Serious Offender
Nov 6, 2012
18,098
1,029
Mesa, Arizona
My god Jake. Please stop obsessively licking DT's boots. You post stuff like this and I feel the need to respond. Then I'll get called out for continuing to bring up Tippett. If you want the haters to stop dragging him, please lead by example and show your fellow acolytes how to let go. Shhh...

I wish I could super like this post.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Yandover

_Del_

Registered User
Jul 4, 2003
15,426
6,738
Bux said:
It makes things look suspect the same way _Del_ states that the Coyotes had this record in December last year. Why is it that he can't post Tocchet's similar ****ty record over his first 15 games?
Because we're all aware of it already, and our previous levels of suckitude wouldn't be brought up if certain posters didn't pretend it was an unprecedented level of suck from this team which is only a few seasons removed from a 56 point season while openly pining for the previous regime. They also ignore the context of mitigating circumstances as Sniper listed.
We were 8-15-5 last year on 8 Dec. That's BEFORE the nine game losing streak later in the month stretching into January.
We're only 7-18-4 behind that right now, even INCLUDING the horrific goaltending/start.
So I'm still confused on how this is the worst hockey ever seen, considering the level of compete from a club under new staff, horrific goaltending, young players being integrated on the fly, injuries to the blue line and starter, etc, etc.
The team shows up for more than 20 minutes a night. Special teams look better than they did last year. Many stats like the chances for/against, unsustainably low PDO, etc bear out that this is and has been a better club than the record indicates. I never thought last year's club was better than second worst, and that's where they sat in the standings for 90% of the season. Looking at the underlying stats, I'd say we're essentially the middle of the pack team we've seen and been since picking up a decent back up goaltender.
Or we could pretend the sky is still falling, and year 6 of Tippett missing the playoffs was the answer we missed when he "quit."
 
  • Like
Reactions: CC96 and Yandover

BUX7PHX

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
5,581
1,350
Because we're all aware of it already, and our previous levels of suckitude wouldn't be brought up if certain posters didn't pretend it was an unprecedented level of suck from this team which is only a few seasons removed from a 56 point season while openly pining for the previous regime. They also ignore the context of mitigating circumstances as Sniper listed.
We were 8-15-5 last year on 8 Dec. That's BEFORE the nine game losing streak later in the month stretching into January.
We're only 7-18-4 behind that right now, even INCLUDING the horrific goaltending/start.
So I'm still confused on how this is the worst hockey ever seen, considering the level of compete from a club under new staff, horrific goaltending, young players being integrated on the fly, injuries to the blue line and starter, etc, etc.
The team shows up for more than 20 minutes a night. Special teams look better than they did last year. Many stats like the chances for/against, unsustainably low PDO, etc bear out that this is and has been a better club than the record indicates. I never thought last year's club was better than second worst, and that's where they sat in the standings for 90% of the season. Looking at the underlying stats, I'd say we're essentially the middle of the pack team we've seen and been since picking up a decent back up goaltender.
Or we could pretend the sky is still falling, and year 6 of Tippett missing the playoffs was the answer we missed when he "quit."

What don't you understand about the simple fact that our overall talent level (not just at the NHL level) had been piss-poor for a significant time between 2014 and really, last year? What mitigating circumstances have been missed, or is that your way of trying to say that we don't pay attention, when in reality, you are the one who is misinterpreting mitigating circumstances? We could just as easily have said that up through the month of December last year, our goalie performed at the exact level of Domingue, for whatever reason, but it was immediately put on the coach.

If you are arguing that the team has more time that they are "up" for the game - sure, why not? I don't distinctly see any difference in the level of compete last year vs this year. Maybe that is the up and down system telling you that the team is competing more, but if the results have been on the side of poor to mediocre with a sprinkle of positives in there, I don't see how a definitive conclusion can be made that the team is "showing up moreso and significantly moreso than last year."

Considering how everyone acted last year, we had horrific goaltending last year, so what is the difference? We had some young players integrated on the fly, but was Tippett correct or incorrect in sending Strome back to the OHL (he was correct in that) or keeping Crouse up (while some have discussed the merits of him improving offense in Kingston, the truth of the matter is that b/c of his size, speed, ability, etc. it would be the equivalent of putting a senior on a freshman team - he would get better at some things, but would not be challenged enough). We have had plenty of injuries over the years (not just blue-line specific).

That's where I am saying why is Tocchet essentially getting the benefit of the doubt due to injury and shitty play, when the same thing could be said last year: Domi went out with his broken hand right about this time, and he was our best F, outside of Vrbata. Duclair at least deserved to get benched last year, given how he was playing. This isn't an excuse, but the same way the goalie injury thing is discussed, why is it that you conveniently ignore injuries as relates to last year's squad? Why do you conveniently ignore that Perlini got brought up the same way that Strome was this year: start in the A, work hard and grow, and then eventually you get your time? But it is praised when Tocchet and his staff does that, but for Tippett, he is looked at as incompetent, regardless.

I don't in any way think that last year's club was playoff caliber, but to that point, I also don't think they were the second worst club, either. Much the same as this club this year. More talent, but less experience means we probably are about the same team as last year, maybe with more growth potential, but also more possible mistakes to iron out (as evidenced by our first 20 games). I don't think that our team is as bad as the record indicates, but to blatantly state that this team is further ahead of where they were at last year is questionable at best, and laughable at worst - depends on how much further ahead you consider this team to be. I see a little progress ahead in certain areas, but a lack of progress in others. Maybe a hair better, but I think that is born of the increased talent that we are finally able to see on the roster. Imagine how much better this team may have been with Strome and Crouse being able to play in the A last year and compete against pros more consistently, with Crouse getting to play against pros last year, but not much consistency arriving.

That's where I feel like there is this jaded belief that we are ahead of where we are last year by leaps and bounds, but at least some of that would have shown up earlier in the year. I think we are slightly better, but regardless of who the coach is, we are a below average team. Maybe we would be far worse with Tippett in charge (I doubt that). Maybe we would be far better with Tippett in charge (I also doubt we would be far better, but I think we would be trending slightly better).
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad