Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

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Leaf Army

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Sammy said:
You are . Have you ever looked at the number of small, skilled, guys (add in suspect skating if you wish) who never made the NHL but who produced as Juniors or in the A. They are a dime a dozen & dwarf the number of guys who make it. Hence the guys who make it are a the exception to the rule & your point that I quoted was ridiculous.

Got any FACTS to back this up? Didn't think so.

Here are the actual facts.

I've taken the 6 division leaders in the NHL last year and compared the weights of their players by from TSN.

Philadelphia- 40% of their players were under 200 pounds
Boston- 30% were under 200 pounds
Tampa- 37% were under 200 pounds
Detroit- 57% were under 200 pounds
Vancouver- 42% were under 200 pounds
San Jose- 31% were under 200 pounds

So now I'm guessing that all those small players who don't make it must be in the AHL right?

Here's the division leaders in the AHL this year.

Manchester- 44% are under 200 pounds
Philadelphia- 32% are under 200 pounds
Edmonton- 36% are under 200 pounds
Milwaukee- 48% under 200 pounds

Conclusion: You're wrong.

I love when blowhards like you come on here spouting their opinions as if they're facts without a shred of evidence to back up what they're saying.
 

kmad

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Leaf Army... under 200 pounds? Wellwood is 180. That's well below 200 pounds. Go do your stats for players that are 180 pounds. Or make your information selection so vague as to be able to prove any misguided point you feel you need to.
 

Sammy*

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The Messenger said:
Are you INSANE ????

Those stats are of current NHL players ... Sakic & St. Louis verses Joe Thornton and Ilya Kovalchuk ..etc ..

Wellwood and Higgins have no part of those stats ..

They are stats provided to disprove the Size matters in the NHL theory because of the CURRENT NHLers under 6' feet and producing offensively are not the exception but the Norm and the bigger players are in fact the exception more so...

his could have been posted in any thread outside of this one and most posters except the INSANE ones would have understand the point .

Thanks for being the exception to the rule ... In this case size does matter but its brain size that is your downfall ..
You too are thick. Using the size of a few guys who make the NHL to disprove the argument size matters is frankly stupid. Thats like me saying that Jordin Tootoo playing in the NHL proves that the statement "Small Inuits making the NHL are the exception to the rule that generally its bigger white guys who make it" is false.
I think you are confusing making the NHL & once you are there, actually producing. The fact is, once they make it they better score, cause if they dont ,they wont be in the NHL.
No one is saying if he makes it he wont score, in fact, the converse is true.
Its really not that difficult a concept..
 

Leaf Army

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kmad said:
Also note that out of all of the players in those lists, the only three actually UNDER 6'0 (in the top 11 point getters) are Naslund, Sakic, and St Louis. Sakic and St Louis are incredibly fast and Naslund is 205 lbs strong.

And Alfredsson. That's four. And Tanguay is listed as 6'0, 180 so he's very close too.

kmad said:
Leaf Army... under 200 pounds? Wellwood is 180. That's well below 200 pounds. Go do your stats for players that are 180 pounds. Or make your information selection so vague as to be able to prove any misguided point you feel you need to.

McKeen's, TSN and Hockeydb.com all list Wellwood as 190.

But I'll be back with your stats- give me a minute.
 

regdunlap7

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Here's an example of why just looking at goals and assists isn't always a great indicator of worth.

The year is 2000-01. 3 players with the following stats:

A: 23g 15a
B: 21g 24a
C: 22g 20a

Pretty even stats, and you'd say that the 3 guys are fairly even. The first is John Madden, the 2nd Dave Scatchard and the 3rd is Steve Heinze. Now given the fact that Madden and Scatchard play solid D, kill penalties and are asked first to shut down opposing offenses, I'd say they're numbers are a bit better than Heinze's.
 

Mess

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kmad said:
Leaf Army... under 200 pounds? Wellwood is 180. That's well below 200 pounds. Go do your stats for players that are 180 pounds. Or make your information selection so vague as to be able to prove any misguided point you feel you need to.

Now I am convinced that you are having problems understanding...

Look at his post .. Do you see any mention of Toronto or its Farm team in that analysis ...

How did you get from that post to Wellwoods weight ???

and also in this whole thread has discussed POTENTIAL .. not once has NHL readiness even come into the discussion .. Higgins and/or Wellwood may take 3 more seasons filling out and maturing in the AHL before they are even presented with a NHL chance ... Do you think all NHL players are the same weight now than they were when they were drafted as 18 year olds ???
 

Sammy*

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Leaf Army said:
Got any FACTS to back this up? Didn't think so.

Here are the actual facts.

I've taken the 6 division leaders in the NHL last year and compared the weights of their players by from TSN.

Philadelphia- 40% of their players were under 200 pounds
Boston- 30% were under 200 pounds
Tampa- 37% were under 200 pounds
Detroit- 57% were under 200 pounds
Vancouver- 42% were under 200 pounds
San Jose- 31% were under 200 pounds

So now I'm guessing that all those small players who don't make it must be in the AHL right?

Here's the division leaders in the AHL this year.

Manchester- 44% are under 200 pounds
Philadelphia- 32% are under 200 pounds
Edmonton- 36% are under 200 pounds
Milwaukee- 48% under 200 pounds

Conclusion: You're wrong.

I love when blowhards like you come on here spouting their opinions as if they're facts without a shred of evidence to back up what they're saying.
Interesting that you didnt add in the height requirement. I am guessing that of those teams maybe 20% if that were under 6 feet. And btw, since when did a "small" guy become 200 pounds. Doesnt really matter, about 60% were under 200 pounds.
Why dont you do an analysis for me of the % of players that are Wellwoods size or smaller (5.11, 190). This should be good for a laugh.
 

Mess

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Sammy said:
Interesting that you didnt add in the height requirement. I am guessing that of those teams maybe 20% if that were under 6 feet. And btw, since when did a "small" guy become 200 pounds. Doesnt really matter, about 60% were under 200 pounds.
Why dont you do an analysis for me of the % of players that are Wellwoods size or smaller (5.11, 190). This should be good for a laugh.

I suggest you do some of your own analysis ... Then perhaps you could contibute more to the discussion ...
 

Sammy*

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I suggest you do some of your own analysis ... Then perhaps you could contibute more to the discussion ...
Yeah, contribute like you guys who have difficulty understanding that size does actually matter & smaller guys making it are the exception to the rule, using guys who have made it (ie "the exception to the rule guys") to disprove that comment.
Nice logic
 

Leaf Army

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kmad said:
Leaf Army... under 200 pounds? Wellwood is 180. That's well below 200 pounds. Go do your stats for players that are 180 pounds. Or make your information selection so vague as to be able to prove any misguided point you feel you need to.

Here you go....

Players under 190 pounds.

Philly- 16%
Boston- 20%
Tampa- 4%
Detroit- 24%
Vancouver- 8%
San Jose- 4%

AHL

Manchester- 24%
Philly- 8%
Edmonton- 12%
Milwaukee- 24%
 

Leaf Army

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Sammy said:
Yeah, contribute like you guys who have difficulty understanding that size does actually matter & smaller guys making it are the exception to the rule, using guys who have made it (ie "the exception to the rule guys") to disprove that comment.

Got anything to back that up?
 

Mess

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Sammy said:
Yeah, contribute like you guys who have difficulty understanding that size does actually matter & smaller guys making it are the exception to the rule, using guys who have made it (ie "the exception to the rule guys") to disprove that comment.
Nice logic

What am I missing here .. I am doing a comparison of 2 separate prospects ..

Chris Higgins :.......Height 5'11" Weight : 188 lbs Age : 21
Kyle Wellwood :.....Height 5'11'' Weight : 190 lbs Age : 21

Which one of these guys is too small ??? ....
 

AH

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Leaf Army said:
I still consider Boyes to be a good prospect.

You're using Boyes as a comparison for Wellwood. That's fine. I have no problem with that.

But Boyes was considered a top 50 prospect not that long ago. Wellwood never has been.

Are you suggesting that Wellwood should be a top 50 prospect like Boyes was? That's what it seems like.

Maybe not you, but most of the Wellwood pimps call Boyes a bust. How come? is it because Boyes is no longer in the Leafs org ?

Or because putting on those blue and white goggles all of a sudden makes Wellwood look a lot better than he really is, when in fact he is probably not even as good as Boyes ?
 

Leaf Army

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AH said:
Maybe not you, but most of the Wellwood pimps call Boyes a bust. How come? is it because Boyes is no longer in the Leafs org ? Or because putting on those blue and white goggles all of a sudden makes Wellwood look a lot better than he really is, when in fact he is probably not even as good as Boyes ?

I don't know what you mean by "blue and white googles".

It was YOU who said Boyes was a great comparison for Wellwood.
 

Mess

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PROSPECT COMPARISON

ITEM ...........................ADVANTAGE

Size ..............................EQUAL
Weight...........................EQUAL
AGE:..............................EQUAL
Years of AHL experience....EQUAL
WJC experience...............EQUAL
AHL totals .....................WELLWOOD
2 - way game ................HIGGINS
Offensive ability..............WELLWOOD
Defensive ability..............HIGGINS
Passing .........................WELLWOOD
Shooting........................HIGGINS
Vision............................WELLWOOD
Skating..........................HIGGINS
Leadership......................EQUAL
1st line AHL player...........EQUAL
Draft Position..................HIGGINS
Current +/- ....................WELLWOOD
Penatly Min/ Physical .......HIGGINS


SUMMARY

HIGGINS Top prospect .......YES
WELLWOOD Top Prospect....NO

Question : WHY ????
 

Jeffrey

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The Messenger said:
PROSPECT COMPARISON

ITEM ...........................ADVANTAGE

Size ..............................EQUAL
Weight...........................EQUAL
AGE:..............................EQUAL
Years of AHL experience....EQUAL
WJC experience...............EQUAL
AHL totals .....................WELLWOOD
2 - way game ................HIGGINS
Offensive ability..............WELLWOOD
Defensive ability..............HIGGINS
Passing .........................WELLWOOD
Shooting........................HIGGINS
Vision............................WELLWOOD
Skating..........................HIGGINS
Leadership......................EQUAL
1st line AHL player...........EQUAL
Draft Position..................HIGGINS

SUMMARY

HIGGINS Top prospect .......YES
WELLWOOD Top Prospect....NO

Question : WHY ????
youre claiming all this thread that you arent compairing wellwood being not ranked and just there you claim that higgins shouldnt be there at least ... if wellwood wasnt there why should higgins ...
well i think the same arguments are bringing in over and over again ...
higgins is all you can expect from a NHL POV ...
speed to kill, good defensive awareness,good offensive skills,good leadership,good attitude, good work-ethic and play the physical game ..
i dunno enough about wellwood(saw him 2-3 times) but Higgins ranking in the top 50 is more than LEGIT!! can't see any big hole in his game if any ...
 

Mess

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Kryoptix said:
youre claiming all this thread that you arent compairing wellwood being not ranked and just there you claim that higgins shouldnt be there at least ... if wellwood wasnt there why should higgins ...

That is just a chart ...How am I claiming anything??

I have said from post one in this thread that Higgins is a solid prospect well deserving of a top prospect rating ... I am making a case Why people do not think Wellwood is ??..

Even from the chart you can see they are similar .. that doesn't discredit Higgins it adds credibility to Wellwoods case that's all .. In my opinion Higgins biggest difference is defensive awareness and skating at top speed ..

Physical play is an intangible asset that is hard to measure and even harder to project into potential and not a requirement as top NHL players don't use it either.

For all of you in Canada that get Rogers Sportsnet .. This Friday Nov 26 ... is broadcasting the St. Johns verses Hamilton game and we can watch the 2 prospects go head to head
 

Sammy*

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PROSPECT COMPARISON

ITEM ...........................ADVANTAGE

Size ..............................EQUAL
Weight...........................EQUAL
AGE:..............................EQUAL
Years of AHL experience....EQUAL
WJC experience...............EQUAL
AHL totals .....................WELLWOOD
2 - way game ................HIGGINS
Offensive ability..............WELLWOOD
Defensive ability..............HIGGINS
Passing .........................WELLWOOD
Shooting........................HIGGINS
Vision............................WELLWOOD
Skating..........................HIGGINS
Leadership......................EQUAL
1st line AHL player...........EQUAL
Draft Position..................HIGGINS
Current +/- ....................WELLWOOD
Penatly Min/ Physical .......HIGGINS


SUMMARY

HIGGINS Top prospect .......YES
WELLWOOD Top Prospect....NO

Question : WHY ????
Cause Higgins is a far better skater, stronger, probably tougher, & better defensivly by a large margin.
If you dont agree, maybe you should email the scouts that passed Welwood up around 160 times.
 

Mess

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Sammy said:
Cause Higgins is a far better skater, stronger, probably tougher, & better defensivly by a large margin.
If you dont agree, maybe you should email the scouts that passed Welwood up around 160 times.

Earth to Sammy .... Even beginners know the draft position does not equal NHL success .. Most people know that ...

If you you don't agree just go look where last years top scorers were taken ..stating with Martin St. Louis, TB, and down through Daniel Alfredsson, OTT,Robert Lang, DET, Brad Richards, TB, Milan Hejduk, COL, Mark Recchi Phi, Steve Sullivan, NAS.....
 

Sammy*

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Earth to Sammy .... Even beginners know the draft position does not equal NHL success .. Most people know that ...

If you you don't agree just go look where last years top scorers were taken ..stating with Martin St. Louis, TB, and down through Daniel Alfredsson, OTT,Robert Lang, DET, Brad Richards, TB, Milan Hejduk, COL, Mark Recchi Phi, Steve Sullivan, NAS.....
Geez, you should be an NHL scout with that analysis. I guess hes now on par with those guys.
So tell me, why isnt Peter Sarno in the NHL?
And btw, what exactly has changed from the time your boy got drafted to today, & why was he drafted so late?
What a donkey.
 

BuppY

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Some players who are currently playing in the AHL, and are considered small, that is the reason why they arn't in the NHL, just don't get an oppurtunity. In order for players to make it they must get a fair oppurtunity, and some just don't get it.
 

Mess

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Sammy said:
Geez, you should be an NHL scout with that analysis. I guess hes now on par with those guys.
So tell me, why isnt Peter Sarno in the NHL?
And btw, what exactly has changed from the time your boy got drafted to today, & why was he drafted so late?
What a donkey.

NHL LOCKOUT !!!!

Did you miss that Memo .. No player is currently playing in the NHL including Sarno..
 
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