GDT: CAR@NYR; There's a game, but Zykov isn't playing. Time for Rage.

tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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Before the season started, we all assumed it would take about 93-94 points to make the playoffs and Canes are likely to get 87? The fancy chart basically says that, right?

Basically it says that the most likely outcome is to be hopelessly out of the race at 87, but stealing 2 wins beyond expectation would vault them to right on the bubble line where it's a coin flip.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
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Basically it says that the most likely outcome is to be hopelessly out of the race at 87, but stealing 2 wins beyond expectation would vault them to right on the bubble line where it's a coin flip.

Maybe, but it means other teams have to lose as well. Right now:

NJ and FL are on pace for 93 points
CLB is on pace for 92
CAR is on pace for 86

So if everyone keeps playing like they are, but the Canes "steal" 2 more victories, they still don't make it. Regardless of what that chart says, I don't think there's even a chance unless they are at that 93-94 point range at least. The last 3 years, the cutoff has been 95, 96, and 98 points to make the playoffs.
 

tarheelhockey

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Feb 12, 2010
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Maybe, but it means other teams have to lose as well. Right now:

NJ and FL are on pace for 93 points
CLB is on pace for 92
CAR is on pace for 86

So if everyone keeps playing like they are, but the Canes "steal" 2 more victories, they still don't make it. Regardless of what that chart says, I don't think there's even a chance unless they are at that 93-94 point range at least. The last 3 years, the cutoff has been 95, 96, and 98 points to make the playoffs.

That’s the coin flip part, right? A bunch of .500 type teams, 50/50 chance they win more than 50% of their games over a certain stretch.

All we can do is win our games and hope for the best. Obviously we’re not going to go 14-0 or whatever, but if we can manage a decent (not great, just decent) stretch of hockey here then we’re in it just as much as they are.
 

cptjeff

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Sep 18, 2008
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That’s the coin flip part, right? A bunch of .500 type teams, 50/50 chance they win more than 50% of their games over a certain stretch.

All we can do is win our games and hope for the best. Obviously we’re not going to go 14-0 or whatever, but if we can manage a decent (not great, just decent) stretch of hockey here then we’re in it just as much as they are.

The reason Florida is ahead of us is because they got hot,not because they have a substantially better roster. That can end pretty easily, and we can get hot down the stretch instead of them. This team still has its fate in its own hands- which of course means they'll melt down at the last possible moment, but they have the chance.
 

tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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I'd compare the current situation to being down 2 goals after 2 periods. It's a bad situation, sure. The other team has an advantage, there's a reason they're up 2 goals to begin with, and the stats are all going to show a strong probability that you lose. Most of the time, the person that goes home early to skip traffic will get the payoff of an easier ride home.

But still, the game's not over yet at that point. It's a 2 goal deficit, not 5. You get a goal early, get a little momentum, then that other team isn't sitting there comfortable with their odds anymore. Just get in a position where a bounce makes all the difference, and crazy **** can happen in this game.

And yes, you can tie the game and then still lose in OT. It happens.
 

Hulkacaniac

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Jun 4, 2015
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The reason Florida is ahead of us is because they got hot,not because they have a substantially better roster. That can end pretty easily, and we can get hot down the stretch instead of them. This team still has its fate in its own hands- which of course means they'll melt down at the last possible moment, but they have the chance.
Perhaps we should make a thread on the main boards marveling at how well they're doing
 

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