Post-Game Talk: Caps vs Devils Oct 21

[twabby]

What about their deployments? JC is considered a top pair D, certainly paid like one, but we all know his defensive liabilities of recent years. But how are 74/42 being deployed early on? Any trends there about their matchups?

Also are we sure its Fever that needs to improve to get that 31% up to break even? Maybe its too soon to get meaningful numbers when they are apart but it sure feels to me like 42 is bailing out 74 more than the other way around.

WOWY stats are essentially useless now. When apart, both Carlson and Fehervary have enjoyed a ~90% xGF% rate, but in only 7-8 minutes apart. We'll need a much bigger sample before anything meaningful comes out.

In terms of matchups it looks like the Fehervary-Carlson pairing is getting about equal deployments as the Orlov-Jensen pairing, while the TVR-Schultz pairing is getting the easier deployments. Neither of the top two pairs appear to be getting hard-matched to the top players of the opposition.

QoC estimates:
Evolving-Hockey.com | Skater Quality of Teammates & Competition

Zone start data:
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

It's early, so a lot of the results so far are noise, but they have definitely had the weakest on-ice results so far. Their results will certainly improve as time goes on.

 

[txpd]

It's too bad but until game 81 or 82, no one sits their best players, even if they're older.

We've been talking about it for what feels like a decade on this forum, and it hasn't happened yet. Teams play their best players, in part because they want to play.

I think we went thru this with Orpik, who wanted to play. Him wanting to take games off because of his age or health was totally against his brand. At the same time its just too easy to miss the playoffs in this league and if you miss because you were coasting and giving your better players games off, people get fired.

 

[txpd]

What about their deployments? JC is considered a top pair D, certainly paid like one, but we all know his defensive liabilities of recent years. But how are 74/42 being deployed early on? Any trends there about their matchups?

Also are we sure its Fever that needs to improve to get that 31% up to break even? Maybe its too soon to get meaningful numbers when they are apart but it sure feels to me like 42 is bailing out 74 more than the other way around.

I think the 74 hate is getting overblown. The idea that 42 is bailing out 74 and that Carlson is the liability is wrong. But we arent going to put that argument to rest. Carlson will suck from here until his career is over.

More clearly, Laviolette likes to use Orlov and Jensen against the opposing top lines. Right? Carlson is used in situations where they are trying to produce offense. Orlov and Jensen are defense first and Fehervary and Carlson are offense first.

 

[txpd]

Are we still thinking we suck at 5 on 5 and can't play this way in the postseason? Or there is some other reason we fail in the playoffs?

The answer is clear. Poor 5 on 5 results during the regular prove the suckatude unless the underlying analytics show something else. Quality results 5 on 5 in the regular only proves you are a paper tiger. In short you can prove you suck in the regular but not that you are any good.

 

[tenken00]

I think the 74 hate is getting overblown. The idea that 42 is bailing out 74 and that Carlson is the liability is wrong. But we arent going to put that argument to rest. Carlson will suck from here until his career is over.

More clearly, Laviolette likes to use Orlov and Jensen against the opposing top lines. Right? Carlson is used in situations where they are trying to produce offense. Orlov and Jensen are defense first and Fehervary and Carlson are offense first.

I don't know tex... Orlov and especially Jensen are all about scoring points these days

 

[txpd]

I don't know tex... Orlov and especially Jensen are all about scoring points these days

True true

 

[Capsman]

The answer is clear. Poor 5 on 5 results during the regular prove the suckatude unless the underlying analytics show something else. Quality results 5 on 5 in the regular only proves you are a paper tiger. In short you can prove you suck in the regular but not that you are any good.

I see more to be hopeful about this season than I've seen in the last 2 years, primarily because of our 5x5 play. So personally, I'm not in the paper tiger camp. I was much more concerned last season when we were getting out-chanced but were opportunistic.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think the 74 hate is getting overblown. The idea that 42 is bailing out 74 and that Carlson is the liability is wrong. But we arent going to put that argument to rest. Carlson will suck from here until his career is over.

More clearly, Laviolette likes to use Orlov and Jensen against the opposing top lines. Right? Carlson is used in situations where they are trying to produce offense. Orlov and Jensen are defense first and Fehervary and Carlson are offense first.

Its not so much hate from me, but JC has been a defensive liability especially at his price tag, and especially in the playoffs, for a few years now. And in comparison to 42, there was this idea that the veteran would cover for the kid, but its no really working that way, as both of them have been up into the offense plenty, and I've seen several instances of 42 covering a lot of ice quickly to break up a play where JC had been beat. Its not overblown, its expectations for an $8M D man, and those expectations are that he plays very solid defense. JC hasn't met those lately.

As for deployments, Twabby pointed out that so far in the small sample size, the top 2 pairs are deployed similarly.

 

[kicksavedave]

I see more to be hopeful about this season than I've seen in the last 2 years, primarily because of our 5x5 play. So personally, I'm not in the paper tiger camp. I was much more concerned last season when we were getting out-chanced but were opportunistic.

There's a lot to like so far, such as zero goals allowed in the 1st or 2nd period by VV, under 30 shots against in all four games, sheer dominance at 5v5, the D just looking more mobile and in sync and the Return of the Kuzya! Last year was a paper tiger but mainly last year we just got beat up and injured down the stretch into the playoffs. That's why this glorious start means nothing at all, its how we finish. If we are healthy going into the playoffs I have 100% confidence we can make a run. If we're not, then nope.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Team is firing on all cylinders right now.

I’d wager CMM sticks w the big club, and Jimi gets sent back after 10 games.

When Backstrom comes back, I’d like to see CMM take Sheary’s spot. He can play LW with either Backstrom or Eller.

Wilson - Kuz - Ovy
Sprong - Backstrom/Eller - Mantha
CMM - Backstrom/Eller - Oshie
Hags - Dowd - Hathaway
Sheary

yes please

 

[txpd]

I see more to be hopeful about this season than I've seen in the last 2 years, primarily because of our 5x5 play. So personally, I'm not in the paper tiger camp. I was much more concerned last season when we were getting out-chanced but were opportunistic.

Sorry. That was just sarcasm talking

 

[txpd]

Team is firing on all cylinders right now.

I’d wager CMM sticks w the big club, and Jimi gets sent back after 10 games.

When Backstrom comes back, I’d like to see CMM take Sheary’s spot. He can play LW with either Backstrom or Eller.

Wilson - Kuz - Ovy
Sprong - Backstrom/Eller - Mantha
CMM - Backstrom/Eller - Oshie
Hags - Dowd - Hathaway
Sheary

yes please

I think that Sheary is to Lavy what Fleischmann was to Bruce. You know what that means. Right?

 

[txpd]

Its not so much hate from me, but JC has been a defensive liability especially at his price tag, and especially in the playoffs, for a few years now. And in comparison to 42, there was this idea that the veteran would cover for the kid, but its no really working that way, as both of them have been up into the offense plenty, and I've seen several instances of 42 covering a lot of ice quickly to break up a play where JC had been beat. Its not overblown, its expectations for an $8M D man, and those expectations are that he plays very solid defense. JC hasn't met those lately.

As for deployments, Twabby pointed out that so far in the small sample size, the top 2 pairs are deployed similarly.

I understand what you are saying. I don't agree. Thats all. Every offensively successful defenseman is eventually hated by a big chunk of their fan base. Its happened with the Capitals over and over again. At $8m I think Carlson is a bargain. Particularly when I see Dougie Hamilton last night

 

[um]

I think that Sheary is to Lavy what Fleischmann was to Bruce. You know what that means. Right?

he's gonna be traded for a dman?

I don't think Sheary is untouchable in Lavy's eyes, but we'll see.

 

[kicksavedave]

I understand what you are saying. I don't agree. Thats all. Every offensively successful defenseman is eventually hated by a big chunk of their fan base. Its happened with the Capitals over and over again. At $8m I think Carlson is a bargain. Particularly when I see Dougie Hamilton last night

I hear you. But I'm not comparing JC to Langway, Stevens or Lidstrom as far as defense, I'm comparing him to his own self earlier in his career. He's declined defensively, it may be due to injuries, or other factors, but when I complain about JC its in comparison to what I think he's capable of, not some mythical standard for what offensive defensemen should be in their own end. I think others here may see it the same way.

Frankly, I'd just be happy if he cut down the egregious turnovers in his end that seem more prevalent in the last few years than earlier in his career.

 

[txpd]

I hear you. But I'm not comparing JC to Langway, Stevens or Lidstrom as far as defense, I'm comparing him to his own self earlier in his career. He's declined defensively, it may be due to injuries, or other factors, but when I complain about JC its in comparison to what I think he's capable of, not some mythical standard for what offensive defensemen should be in their own end. I think others here may see it the same way.

Frankly, I'd just be happy if he cut down the egregious turnovers in his end that seem more prevalent in the last few years than earlier in his career.

No but let's try Larry Murphy for starters. You understand that the turnovers are part of the kind of game he is assigned to play. He has less time to make decisions and more responsibility to create offense than any other defenseman. Like the play to set up the 1st Kuzy goal last night. He passed it thru 3 guys. Had it gone wrong its a dangerous neutral zone turnover. He could play it safe and stop doing that right away. The Caps lose more.

Carlson is the best scoring defenseman in the league and is trusted by his coaches with primary defensive assignments. This goes back before Trotz. Trotz turned his offensive game way up.

Do you want him to play it safe?

 

[zappa4ever]

Carlson's been pretty average at best in the 4 game sample so far
Orlov, Jensen, Fever and TVR have looked great

Once JC74 gets that THC out of his system from the summer I'm sure he'll be back to his normal performance levels and leading the D in scoring

 

[Hivemind]

I think the 74 hate is getting overblown. The idea that 42 is bailing out 74 and that Carlson is the liability is wrong.

Why is it wrong? Are you even watching these games? (We know you’ve skipped at least one of the four and only seen highlights afterwards). 42 has been tremendous early on in terms of being the shutdown player on that pairing AND leading that pairings breakouts. He was the one shutting down MacKinnon and Rantanen in the Colorado game.

 

[Hivemind]

I think the most immediate area of improvement Fehervary needs is his decision making and puck movement along the blueline in the offensive zone. He's trying to make passes up the ice that just don't get through. He doesn't quite seem to be used to the reach and speed of NHL back checkers in cutting off those lanes. He can't put a puck through them the same way he would in lower levels, and it's leading to some offensive possessions being cut short.

He also pivots weirdly on the backcheck sometimes, but his overall skating ability is to the point he can usually recover from it. He's relying on that skating a lot, but its enough of an asset it lets him be a little bit aggressive in his positioning and still manage to stay with his forward. He's doing a great job of using it to drive players wide or open them up for a poke check to change possession.

I do think it's far too early to freak out about the stats. Not just WOWY stats, but basically any combined or shot-based metric. These players still haven't reached 100 shot attempts for or against while they're on the ice. Everything is still super noisy, particularly stats that factor in lower-frequency events (such as HDSC or Goals).

 

[trick9]

Good win, they snapped their spirits rather quickly and it was pretty much business as usual after the 1st.

I really like how Vanecek is playing. He looks very comfortable to start the season and the defense around him has looked much better. I don't really care about the talk of starting goalies because without Backstrom we need 2 good goalies to get somewhere in the Metro so Vanecek starting the year well is a very good sign. That should push Samsonov too because i'm sure he's eager to get some games. Couldn't be happier with how the expansion draft and the aftermath went.