Post-Game Talk: Caps 3 Jets 2 We suck in OT edition

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
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Winnipeg, MB
Capitals are 7/7 in OT, Jets 1/8 or whatever it was. That’s quite a lot of variance in that case. Personally I see a pattern.

Yes, you're finding a pattern in a rear view mirror, based on sample sizes of 10 or less coin tosses. Like a gambler who "notices" that someone "took the dealer's bust card", so that they conclude that a close mistake (expected variation in the hundredths of a percent) was actually a catastrophic blunder.

If you're looking for a pattern that will help us predict how well we expect the Jets to do in their NEXT 3v3 game, well, you won't find one based on how good a team is at 5v5 this year, how good they were at 3v3 last year, or even what their current 3v3 record is this year. All of these have been shown to have zero predictive power.
 

Ducky10

Searching for Mark Scheifele
Nov 14, 2014
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Guess I mean that you only need to win that one FO or you don't get to play in OT. I know Little is statistically over 50 %, but I don't see the difference to rest of the cast is that significant.
Edit: Now that I'm reading what ocdaddy says above, that's basically what I was getting at. Little is above average, but wouldn't say he's FO specialist. With him, it's a coin toss.
He's 7th in the league, 4.5% behind the league leader and 1.5% behind the FO specialist he was up against last night. He moves up to 6th in defensive zone face offs.

When the league leader in face offs is 61.1% and only 62 players in the entire league are above 50%, it's not too far from a coin toss at the best of times.
 
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ocdaddy

Registered User
Nov 3, 2013
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How can they be 7/7 when the Jets beat them in OT earlier this season?

I just flipped a coin ten times. It came up heads 9 times. Must be that heads wins 90% of the time. What else could it possibly explain it?
Putting out fresh legs doesnt increase your chances of winning? Come on...
 

suihkukone

Registered User
Mar 12, 2017
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Bryan Little's 56.6% this year doesn't make him a faceoff specialist, but Jay Beagle's 58.1% makes him one?

Little is mostly a coin toss on the faceoff simply because faceoffs are mostly coin tosses. But with what skill there is to be had, Little has shown it consistently, and his results are respectable even compared to the best, who will barely crack 60% on any given year.

Well, if you ask me, I totally agree that those percents don't mean jack **** and you shouldn't pick your guys based on those. That's not important, the point is that one coach clearly thought so and had a plan and the other just put his trusted guys out and hoped for the best.
I guess Maurice shares your view that losing is just bum luck. I have to say that at no point at yesterday's OT it looked like we are going to win it. It's as if Maurice doesn't care.
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
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Well, if you ask me, I totally agree that those percents don't mean jack **** and you shouldn't pick your guys based on those. That's not important, the point is that one coach clearly thought so and had a plan and the other just put his trusted guys out and hoped for the best.
I guess Maurice shares your view that losing is just bum luck. I have to say that at no point at yesterday's OT it looked like we are going to win it. It's as if Maurice doesn't care.

If at no point you thought we were going to win yesterday's OT, then you're operating with a massive preconceived bias here.

It's the exact same sentiment people told me when our 0-6 OT record "proved we have no chance to win in OT", and of course we've gone 2-2 in OT since then.

We had plenty of chances to win in OT. Losing coin tosses happens.

So it's not that Maurice doesn't care about winning. Knowing the full breadth of just what's out of your control isn't apathy, it's focus and diligence. One might almost call it wisdom.

Have you ever watched a blackjack player who bases their hit or stand decision not on sound mathematics but on "a plan" like trying to "not take the dealer's bust card" or "not changing the flow of the shoe" or whatever? Just because Trotz had a plan doesn't necessarily means it was an effective one or it was even the right one.
 

Farmboy Patty

Senior Hockey Analyst
Nov 2, 2017
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How can they be 7/7 when the Jets beat them in OT earlier this season?

I just flipped a coin ten times. It came up heads 9 times. Must be that heads wins 90% of the time. What else could it possibly explain it?

The OT is definitely a coin toss - for the Jets...and other teams that don't practice it.

It's actually quite silly to call it a coin toss just because your team sucks at it.
 
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Jun 15, 2013
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Than from what you are saying the Atlanta Thrasher core of veterans lost us the game.
Little, Wheeler and Buff.

Hellebuyck did everything he could to allow the Jets to win.

Are we still gonna keep referring to a non existent Thasher core?

Wheeler played in Atlanta for 23 games. If you're gonna talk about the past you may as well refer to him as a Bruin.

Byfuglien had one season in Atlanta. He's a Blackhawk if anything.

The Jets have two Thrashers on their roster. Enstrom & Little, one of didn't play last night.
 
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Jun 15, 2013
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Is there a stats site that allows cross references by minutes played by period, including OT?

I find the only way I ever get this data is cutting & pasting it from the NHL website in real time during a game. After which it disappears.
 
Jun 15, 2013
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A shame Byfuglien made himself a goat again last night. I'm one to be quite critical of him, but he's played exactly as I've asked him to for the past few months now. Nothing flashy, minimize risk...absolutely love the change. Will welcome him with open arms for many more years should he continue to play this way.

OT however, nothing has changed. The long change has been his enemy in many second periods & the same is true in overtime, but worse. Maurice sending him over the boards basically means he's on the ice until the next whistle.

I'm a staunch Maurice defender, but these OT games have even his most fervent supporters shaking their heads.
 

behemolari

Registered User
Dec 1, 2011
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Ya ok , you take Charoit over Buff , Buff has been very good since Trouba got hurt and now you jump all over him when it was Wheeler's mistake . It's like people just can't wait for any opportunity to bash Buff . :shakehead

hhhm no, i just like chariot amazingly lot! he has good attitude and plays tough, doesn't do stupid mistakes and keeps it dead simple, just like a big frame guy should

Chariot is my flavour of defender, I've really grown into him recently

Buff instead.. just get rid of him before he ruins the game seven, it's all written on him. thing is he can play very good (as we have seen) then he does surprisingly bonehead move with disaster result, thats the worst part of him being totally inconsistent.

Wheeler made a bad decision true, but he is the most effective forward there. That is his job to create plays and maximise scoring changes by taking risks, unfortunately that includes some bad decisions. Buff job instead should be prevent opponent to score or at least try that by forcing opponent to make bad decision, not doing them by himself. You see the problem here?
 
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KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,529
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Winnipeg
A shame Byfuglien made himself a goat again last night. I'm one to be quite critical of him, but he's played exactly as I've asked him to for the past few months now. Nothing flashy, minimize risk...absolutely love the change. Will welcome him with open arms for many more years should he continue to play this way.

OT however, nothing has changed. The long change has been his enemy in many second periods & the same is true in overtime, but worse. Maurice sending him over the boards basically means he's on the ice until the next whistle.

I'm a staunch Maurice defender, but these OT games have even his most fervent supporters shaking their heads.
Luckily in the playoffs OT is played 5-5 after an intermission.
 
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YWGinYYZ

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Jul 3, 2011
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Is there a stats site that allows cross references by minutes played by period, including OT?

I find the only way I ever get this data is cutting & pasting it from the NHL website in real time during a game. After which it disappears.

If you go to nhl.com and click on the game afterwards, go to the preview and go to the bottom. They'll have all of the various reports there:

upload_2018-3-13_19-37-33.png


The TOI - Jets has a per player breakdown of the players shifts for each period.

Time On Ice Report Away Team

The event summary shows overall TOI:

Event Summary

hockeyviz, hockeystats.ca, or naturalstattrick may have other versions of this.
 
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