Post-Game Talk: Caps 3 Jets 2 We suck in OT edition

[Ducky10]

Yes I think I know what this thread is about thanks, you don’t need to sound so condescending.

Why only put two lines with their Corsi stated, clearly there was an attempt to say one line played better over the other. Corsi shouldn’t be used as a primary source of evaluation, end of the day Little’s line produces zero goals and Stastny’s line produced two. Sure it might look great to have a good Corsi but if you can’t put the puck in the net then it is pointless.

Little had a good game, by Corsi standards and by eye test standards. His line didn't score, therefore he sucked? Little played a role in the Ehlers goal by the way, Laine and Stastny weren't on the ice.

 

[Ducky10]

Is it just me, or does this guy seem way off at times? Like he made a comment about Ovi playing in an era with tons of hooking and holding and yet didn’t Ovi come into the league right when they were calling EVERYTHING a penalty?

Botha calls on Little had him in disbelief, especially the one in OT. Call nothing in the 3rd yet first chance they get, boom! Penalty. Seemed really sketchy with that timing. Of course this is what happens when the standard changes on the fly as the season goes on.

Yeah, for the most part I like him but you're right, a number of times last night I was like, "what the hell are you talking about man"? It's been a few times this road trip with him.

 

[Crocket]

That's on Maurice. Too much Wheeler in OT... yet again. Same old, same old, OT deal...

This 100%. Maurice shortens the bench at the wrong time. Wheeler, Little and Buff were the most tired guys in the building. Buff was huffing an puffing at the beginning of OT, as soon as we got that penalty, change. He was on the ice almost the entire time. One major thing to avoid in OT is being trapped on the ice tired. I'd rather have a fresh Myers, Mo or Chairot than an exhausted anybody.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I thought we played well enough to win that game. As has been mentioned many times, while missing so many important players. It really is amazing that we continue to be competitive with so much of our roster missing.

I couldn't really pick out anyone in the first 3 periods that was off. I thought everyone played hard, and we equalled the Caps easily.

...BUT! I'm not conceding my opinion about our OT line decisions. If Wheeler was completely rested, then sure put him out there for a shift, but I don't like Buff or Little out there much at all. OT to me is all about speed with the space that you have out there. I have no idea why we don't start the ESL line. S & L are both pretty good defensively and E can beat almost anyone back to our end if he needs to. You need speed, creativity, faceoff wins and goal scoring which ESL brings. I just don't understand.

Don't mistake my criticism of the OT decisions for my opinions on the rest of the game(s) from a player or a coaching perspective. We have been very good all year in most situations and Mo has done a great job considering the injuries. It's just this one thing that really bugs me. It just seems so obvious to me to send out speed and skill over size and age.

 

[Crocket]

Rather see Armia, Roslovic and Morrissey than Buff, Little and Wheeler in OT at this point. Everyone saw that coming.

Agree, all fast players who are way more fresh. It doesn't matter how good you are, if you're depleted, you're useless. You not only can't move but you make bad decisions. Like Buff's pinch, or was that a attempt at a pinch / bad decision. Pinching on 3/3 when you're dead. I actually blame Huddy or Maurice for having him on, unless Buff insists on being on that long.

 

[Crocket]

Maurice should play that NHL video game where if you used turbo with the player, he would immediately be depleted and go half speed. Then see how much ice Buff and Wheeler get in OT.
Really proud of the Jets this year but like others have said, this seems so obvious. Tanev is more valuable fresh than a tired Little or Wheeler.

In fact, Maurice mentions they spend no time on OT strategy. Why not have 6 of the bottom guys practice it on their own, and roll them in for OT. That could be a killer strategy. 6 of the freshest guys, with a plan of attack in OT.

 

[mondo3]

I've read a few discussions where they say that faceoff winning percentage isn't a huge deal in terms of wins or losses. I'm wondering if this still holds true with the OT 3 on 3 format, as it seems like possession is maintained for long stretches of time during OT, and it all starts with the faceoff?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Little was the Jets best face off guy last night...so I am not sure what people are complaining about him being out there to start. If anything the amount of time those guys stayed on the ice is an issue. They have to be smarter out there and change when the time is right. They could have changed right before that goal and they didn't.

 

[Channelcat]

I've read a few discussions where they say that faceoff winning percentage isn't a huge deal in terms of wins or losses. I'm wondering if this still holds true with the OT 3 on 3 format, as it seems like possession is maintained for long stretches of time during OT, and it all starts with the faceoff?

Gaining possession off the faceoff is critical.....I'd guess even moreso in OT or special teams.

 

[suihkukone]

Little was the Jets best face off guy last night...so I am not sure what people are complaining about

Wheeler and Roslo won 100 % FOs last night. Even Hendricks was 60 %.
As said before, Beagle won the opening FO for Caps, then changed for Oshie. We on the other hand have no plan for OT. Just run the same lines and bench the youngest guys.

 

[Gm0ney]

I've read a few discussions where they say that faceoff winning percentage isn't a huge deal in terms of wins or losses. I'm wondering if this still holds true with the OT 3 on 3 format, as it seems like possession is maintained for long stretches of time during OT, and it all starts with the faceoff?

Gaining possession off the faceoff is critical.....I'd guess even moreso in OT or special teams.

I think Dellow looked at Corsi after draws and found the effects of an offensive zone faceoff win only lasted for 11 seconds at 5v5, on average. I don't know if anyone's looked at 3v3. But whatever the case, faceoffs are a bit of coin flip anyway so it doesn't make sense to put a faceoff specialist out there if he's not a good player - and this would be even more important at 3v3 (you wouldn't want Hendricks out there just to win a draw).

 

[Ducky10]

Wheeler and Roslo won 100 % FOs last night. Even Hendricks was 60 %.
As said before, Beagle won the opening FO for Caps, then changed for Oshie. We on the other hand have no plan for OT. Just run the same lines and bench the youngest guys.

Wheeler and Roslovic took one FO each last night ffs, what are you getting at?

 

[AlphaLackey]

In fact, Maurice mentions they spend no time on OT strategy. Why not have 6 of the bottom guys practice it on their own, and roll them in for OT. That could be a killer strategy. 6 of the freshest guys, with a plan of attack in OT.

Because overtime is dominated by variance. You may as well ask the Bombers to practice calling the opening coin toss.

EDIT: one key difference: they actually still do opening coin tosses in playoff games.

 

[ocdaddy]

Little was the Jets best face off guy last night...so I am not sure what people are complaining about him being out there to start. If anything the amount of time those guys stayed on the ice is an issue. They have to be smarter out there and change when the time is right. They could have changed right before that goal and they didn't.

I was alluding to the fact that other coaches might approach the OT with more strategy than Mau. Illustrated by the fact that they have a special FO guy to win possession.

Ive heard OT referred to as a coin toss and hope Mau doesnt percieve it this way when other coaches arent. (Obviously I have no idea if he does)

 

[ocdaddy]

Because overtime is dominated by variance. You may as well ask the Bombers to practice calling the opening coin toss.

EDIT: one key difference: they actually still do opening coin tosses in playoff games.

This is arguable and has been discussed ad nauseum on previous threads.

 

[AlphaLackey]

This is arguable and has been discussed ad nauseum on previous threads.

I'm aware that it's been discussed elsewhere. I was only answering the question to the best of my estimation. Paul Maurice has likely reviewed the same mountain of evidence that has been brought up in these other threads, and in fact to much greater detail.

 

[Ducky10]

I was alluding to the fact that other coaches might approach the OT with more strategy than Mau. Illustrated by the fact that they have a special FO guy to win possession.

Ive heard OT referred to as a coin toss and hope Mau doesnt percieve it this way when other coaches arent. (Obviously I have no idea if he does)

Little was the best FO guy for the Jets last night, so I'm not sure the difference. The risk for Trotz is if Beagle loses the draw, he has less of a chance to change and he's not the guy he wants out there 3v3.

I'll take my best players over my best FO guy.

 

[DowntownBooster]

This 100%. Maurice shortens the bench at the wrong time. Wheeler, Little and Buff were the most tired guys in the building. Buff was huffing an puffing at the beginning of OT, as soon as we got that penalty, change. He was on the ice almost the entire time. One major thing to avoid in OT is being trapped on the ice tired. I'd rather have a fresh Myers, Mo or Chairot than an exhausted anybody.

Those guys log so much ice time during the game. During OT they should play some of the younger guys more often. I wouldn't mind seeing more Ehlers, Laine and Morrisey and less Wheeler, Little and Buff.

 

[HannuJ]

Loved how Caps had their face-off guy take the 1st draw of OT.. gain possession then get off. Its like smart coaching. Hopefully Mau taking notes.

A few more wins in OT and tonights game would be for 1st place. Would be harder to beat Preds in 7 without home ice.

you make a very good point, o wise one.
in the end, first to third doesn't really matter to me. it's nice and all, but it's the playoffs that i care about. thankfully, there's no 3 on 3 in the playoffs.

 

[ocdaddy]

you make a very good point, o wise one.
in the end, first to third doesn't really matter to me. it's nice and all, but it's the playoffs that i care about. thankfully, there's no 3 on 3 in the playoffs.

Hopefully we see a 2nd round. If its vs. Preds then we'll see how important these points were in light of losing home ice advantage.

Line matching with a healthy Lowry is a good thing and works best at home.

 

[suihkukone]

Wheeler and Roslovic took one FO each last night ffs, what are you getting at?

Guess I mean that you only need to win that one FO or you don't get to play in OT. I know Little is statistically over 50 %, but I don't see the difference to rest of the cast is that significant.
Edit: Now that I'm reading what ocdaddy says above, that's basically what I was getting at. Little is above average, but wouldn't say he's FO specialist. With him, it's a coin toss.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Hopefully we see a 2nd round. If its vs. Preds then we'll see how important these points were in light of losing home ice advantage.

The net sum of the "cost" of all the overtime decisions made this year is less than a fraction of a point in the standings.

So if we play the Preds then we'll see how nice it would have been to get an average amount of luck in our coin tosses.

 

[Tommigun]

Because overtime is dominated by variance. You may as well ask the Bombers to practice calling the opening coin toss.

EDIT: one key difference: they actually still do opening coin tosses in playoff games.

Capitals are 7/7 in OT, Jets 1/8 or whatever it was. That’s quite a lot of variance in that case. Personally I see a pattern.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Guess I mean that you only need to win that one FO or you don't get to play in OT. I know Little is statistically over 50 %, but I don't see the difference to rest of the cast is that significant.
Edit: Now that I'm reading what ocdaddy says above, that's basically what I was getting at. Little is above average, but wouldn't say he's FO specialist. With him, it's a coin toss.

Bryan Little's 56.6% this year doesn't make him a faceoff specialist, but Jay Beagle's 58.1% makes him one?

Little is mostly a coin toss on the faceoff simply because faceoffs are mostly coin tosses. But with what skill there is to be had, Little has shown it consistently, and his results are respectable even compared to the best, who will barely crack 60% on any given year.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Capitals are 7/7 in OT, Jets 1/8 or whatever it was. That’s quite a lot of variance in that case. Personally I see a pattern.

How can they be 7/7 when the Jets beat them in OT earlier this season?

I just flipped a coin ten times. It came up heads 9 times. Must be that heads wins 90% of the time. What else could it possibly explain it?