Rumor: Capitals goalie Ilya Samsonov coming to America, will sign after April 30th (first day he can sign)

[brock0791]

My guesses: Detroit, Buffalo, Vancouver or Carolina.

Blues or Flyers make more sense to me (maybe less within division to Flyers) with Elliot or Allen going to Vancouver in a 3 way so they can eat the cap as a backup for Markstrom but don't see them taking on Holtby and reducing Markstrom to 25-30 games. Maybe Buffalo but Holtby only has 2 years left doesn't fit Detroit's window

 

[Boxscore]

Blues or Flyers make more sense to me (maybe less within division to Flyers) with Elliot or Allen going to Vancouver in a 3 way so they can eat the cap as a backup for Markstrom but don't see them taking on Holtby and reducing Markstrom to 25-30 games. Maybe Buffalo but Holtby only has 2 years left doesn't fit Detroit's window

I don't see the Flyers paying Holtby a ton of money when Carter Hart is right around the corner. Also, I doubt the Caps let him go to a rival like Philly.

 

[Atas2000]

that wouldn't make any sense though. why weaken your goaltending position for no reason? i highly doubt they get a defender for one of holtby/grubauer

They would improve in goal by that move though.

 

[MagicalRazor]

Bolded definitely wont be in the market for a goalie with Talbot and Smith.

And the Sens will not be going out to get Holtby with Anderson and Condon still on payroll. Maybe in another years time when those guys come off but even then I doubt Melnyk is a guy who's going to spend 5-6M+ on a #1G, that a position he can fill with mediocrity for much cheaper which is right up his alley.


I dont think there's a lot of suitors for a #1G right now around the league and because of that the Caps will struggle to get good value for whatever goalie they opt to move.



Islanders and Canes are the obvious two in need of help fast. Buffalo and Detroit are another two that will need a starter and dont have quality options within right now. After that, Colorado, St. Louis, Philly, San Jose, Vancouver are other wild card teams that could have interest as well for different reasons. Avs, Sharks, and Blues for example have a decent 1A/1B combo now but health and consistency concerns for both could lead them to be interested in Holtby. Philly and Vancouver could use the upgrade to Holtby now but both have elite goalie prospects in the system that are probably 1-2 years away and so they may have interest in Holtby but also maybe just as happy to be patient and wait for the kids to continue coming along and developing.

Talbot and smith aren't solid numbers 1's If they were they probably would have made the play offs both teams. Number 1 goalies steal wins for you both of them RARELY did that for their team this year Cap is going up MINIMUM 4M next year so 2MILL of free space = holtby's contract

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Blues or Flyers make more sense to me (maybe less within division to Flyers) with Elliot or Allen going to Vancouver in a 3 way so they can eat the cap as a backup for Markstrom but don't see them taking on Holtby and reducing Markstrom to 25-30 games. Maybe Buffalo but Holtby only has 2 years left doesn't fit Detroit's window

We don't need a veteran, starting goaltender. Demko is on his way to the NHL.

 

[rent free]

Copley & Vanecek could battle for a backup spot. Both promising prospects who have been in the minors for a few years now. And Samsonov has the talent to play in the NHL next year. So... no, your prediction of the Caps keeping both 70 & 31 is wrong.

Both of them have put up poor numbers in the minors. The only reason I see the caps playing either one a sign the backup is because of a lack of cap space.

 

[rent free]

They would improve in goal by that move though.

Possibly. Maybe holtby is just having a bad season.

 

[SML2]

hard to be disappointed when I'm not a Caps fan and don't really care if they give him away for free. How many 28 year old top 5 in the league goalies go on the market? The market for fringe goalies tend to be pretty ****. With 3 or 4 teams being a starter away from a playoff team or potential contender I think someone will pony up for Holtby. Especially seeing how the Jets turned it around so quickly from last year(ok team just missing the playoffs) to this(cup contender) just by getting competent goaltending for once.

I don't know. How many top 5 goalies don't start when their team opens up their first playoff round?
I assumed you had more than casual "who cares" interest when I posted.
My mistake.
I just don't see how you think they're set up for some massive return when:
He's not a top five goalie if he's not even starting on his own team for the playoffs.
The Caps weakened their position by letting the whole world know the Russian is coming over here before they signed him and before they could have moved Holtby at the draft.
The shelf life for backups making 6 and change isn't good.
The Caps are a top 5 end cap team and having that amount tied up when you're going in another direction is not good. Anyone who wants him knows they are dealing from a position of weakness and IMO are not going to offer anything close to a haul.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't know. How many top 5 goalies don't start when their team opens up their first playoff round?
I assumed you had more than casual "who cares" interest when I posted.
My mistake.
I just don't see how you think they're set up for some massive return when:
He's not a top five goalie if he's not even starting on his own team for the playoffs.
The Caps weakened their position by letting the whole world know the Russian is coming over here before they signed him and before they could have moved Holtby at the draft.
The shelf life for backups making 6 and change isn't good.
The Caps are a top 5 end cap team and having that amount tied up when you're going in another direction is not good. Anyone who wants him knows they are dealing from a position of weakness and IMO are not going to offer anything close to a haul.

Yeah he hasn't been that good this year, but he'll rebound. I still think he's a top 5 goalie in this league next year, and 6 million for a great starting goalie isn't bad, it's quite good actually. It's not like he's over the hill at 28. Remember that year Bobrovsky was bad after winning the Vezina. And then he was good again. And Grubauer is really good so it's not like losing the job to him is a kiss of death. I think it would be a massive mistake for someone like Carolina to pass on Holtby if the price was their 1st(without a lottery win) for example.

There's enough teams who need the upgrade that I don't think the negotiation weakness will hurt them too much because some of these teams are coming from a position of weakness as well, that enough is enough, they have to fix this goaltending issue. Carolina being the perfect example. They're a top 3 team in the Metro next year with Holtby IMO(trading Holtby to a divisional rival could be a issue though). Or they can go get another Scot Darling, and hope he's a starter and fail again. Maybe it will work eventually. And this is coming from someone who has an affinity for Carolina.

 

[OV Rocks]

I would be pretty surprised if Samsonov didn't start in the AHL. Get him on the North American ice playing 50+ games down there playing as the number 1. I think it would be foolish to throw him in Washington as the backup especially if Holtby is still here, that puts him at 20-25 games with >50% being the 2nd of a back to back. That is not putting a young guy in a great spot to develop.

Of course as I say that Trotz sucks at developing young guys so that is probably what he will do if he is still the coach.

 

[bur and 666 others]

I would be pretty surprised if Samsonov didn't start in the AHL. Get him on the North American ice playing 50+ games down there playing as the number 1. I think it would be foolish to throw him in Washington as the backup especially if Holtby is still here, that puts him at 20-25 games with >50% being the 2nd of a back to back. That is not putting a young guy in a great spot to develop.

Of course as I say that Trotz sucks at developing young guys so that is probably what he will do if he is still the coach.

Not goalies though. Plus Korn mentioned two years ago that it's very important for a young goalie to play a lot of games. That was their major concern regarding Samsonov as he didn't played a lot as a backup. I think they let that know to him and will play him a lot in Hershey instead of riding bench in the NHL.

 

[bur and 666 others]

oh found this article in his thread on the prospects: Величкин об отъезде Самсонова в НХЛ: «Его агент Ларионов никогда не будет работать в сторону России»

basically GM of his former russian club said that Washington spoke with Samsonov and let him know he would be playing in AHL next season. Samsonov understands that and is willing to do so.

 

[AvatarAang]

Holtby stays. Grubbaeur gets traded for a late 1st value. Samsonov Backup.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Both of them have put up poor numbers in the minors. The only reason I see the caps playing either one a sign the backup is because of a lack of cap space.

Looking at their numbers is foolish. Both backstopped one of the worst teams in the AHL this season and were rarely given any help. Copley could easily fill the role of backup goaltender next season

 

[StreetHawk]

I don't see the Flyers paying Holtby a ton of money when Carter Hart is right around the corner. Also, I doubt the Caps let him go to a rival like Philly.

Hart is likely to spend 2 years in the ahl. And then backup for 1-2 years.

Holtby has 2 years left on his deal.

But doubtful you’d see that deal made.