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Speculation: Capitals first half of season

What grade do you give the capitals after the first half of the season?

  • A

    Votes: 16 34.0%

  • B

    Votes: 27 57.4%

  • C

    Votes: 2 4.3%

  • D

    Votes: 1 2.1%

  • F

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Total voters
    47
g00n

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,596
14,666
Hivemind said:
Wins/losses don't have much predictive value in the future. The underlying numbers do. There's always 1-2 teams each season that make the playoffs with poor underlying numbers. They almost never go far, and almost always implode the next season.
Click to expand...

How many teams make the playoffs with great numbers but also never go far?
 
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Roshi

Registered User
Feb 7, 2013
1,995
1,969
Finland
After the losses we had at the summer. After losing some heavy man-games on injuries. After slow start while bringing the kids up. We are first on the division, second on the conference. Basicly another good scretch of 10 games from pretty much clinching the playoff-spot. How can the grade be anything less than A-? Was someone expecting us to dominate every game in every statistics and eye-test there is?

Playoffs is a different animal and should be viewed as a "post-season fun activity". Capitals in-season looks to become another big success, business as usual. For a long time I havent felt this excited heading towards the playoffs too, as the team is still doing growth-process and has room to get better, instead like last couple years when they were static from the first day. Will we lose in the second round? Maybe. But happy to be there, with a team that has potential to go all the way, again. This Capitals franchise is a good winning product and with a little luck we will have our day, hopefully sooner than later.

Some people here appearantly would rather have a shot at drafting Dahlin though, than a shot at winning the Cup.
 
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Hivemind

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,057
13,508
Philadelphia
g00n said:
How many teams make the playoffs with great numbers but also never go far?
Click to expand...
This is from a handful of years ago, but is a very quick and easy way to convey the information.

zi0yJGp.jpg
 
twabby

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
13,719
14,632
Any graphic that uses some form of polar coordinates gets the thumbs up from me!
 
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ovikovy817

ovikovy817

Registered User
May 23, 2015
6,216
3,855
Belgium
We should print screen some post/quotes from different threads and show them 5 years after Ovi's retirement (and When members of our actual core Will retire or be in their middle 30s

Will be fun To read "we're not good enough in corsi While being 4th in the league standings." When we Will be in Sabres/Coyotes territory
 
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g00n

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,596
14,666
Hivemind said:
This is from a handful of years ago, but is a very quick and easy way to convey the information.

zi0yJGp.jpg
Click to expand...

So are you trying to say "a lot", because that's what it looks like to me. Even the teams in the best quadrant had a significant percentage not make it past the 2nd round. Maybe there's a strong correlation in MAKING the playoffs but once you get around .500 in that stat it seems like there's a good chance you still crap out, or you could go all the way, with a lot scattered in between.
 
Hivemind

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,057
13,508
Philadelphia
g00n said:
So are you trying to say "a lot", because that's what it looks like to me. Even the teams in the best quadrant had a significant percentage not make it past the 2nd round. Maybe there's a strong correlation in MAKING the playoffs but once you get around .500 in that stat it seems like there's a good chance you still crap out, or you could go all the way, with a lot scattered in between.
Click to expand...

When only 1/30 (now 1/31) achieve the goal of winning the Stanley Cup each season, of course there will be a lot of good teams that don't get to call themselves Stanley Cup champions. 96.67% of the league fails to get the Cup each year. Heck, you've already trimmed 75% of the league out of the picture by the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Odds of 3rd round:
0-.449: 0%
.450-.499: 10%
.500-.549: 15.15%
.549+: 37.5%

Odds of Stanley Cup:
0-.449: 0%
.450-.499: 1.4%
.500-.549: 3.03%
.549+: 25%

The odds of winning the Stanley Cup are more than double for teams in the 50-54.9% range of those in the 45-49.9% range. A team with a 55%+ Fenwick-close is 7.5 times as likely to win the Cup as a team with a 50-54.9%, and nearly eighteen times more likely than a 45-49.9% team.
 
g00n

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,596
14,666
Hivemind said:
When only 1/30 (now 1/31) achieve the goal of winning the Stanley Cup each season, of course there will be a lot of good teams that don't get to call themselves Stanley Cup champions. 96.67% of the league fails to get the Cup each year. Heck, you've already trimmed 75% of the league out of the picture by the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Odds of 3rd round:
0-.449: 0%
.450-.499: 10%
.500-.549: 15.15%
.549+: 37.5%

Odds of Stanley Cup:
0-.449: 0%
.450-.499: 1.4%
.500-.549: 3.03%
.549+: 25%

The odds of winning the Stanley Cup are more than double for teams in the 50-54.9% range of those in the 45-49.9% range. A team with a 55%+ Fenwick-close is 7.5 times as likely to win the Cup as a team with a 50-54.9%, and nearly eighteen times more likely than a 45-49.9% team.
Click to expand...

I've seen that graphic before, and yes in general the better your stat within those ranges the more likely you are to make the playoffs, but the question was whether or not there were significant numbers of teams with good numbers that crapped out in the playoffs, as a counter to the notion that there are teams with bad numbers that make it and flame out. There are both.

Plus your odds are not really odds vs the field, they're percentages relative to the teams that are in those ranges. During the sampled period there were 5 Cup winners and 2 of them came from the top tier, but 2 came from the tier below. One came from the tier below that. Which suggests that your Cup odds are 20% for the tier below .500, and then 40% for either tier above that. It doubles one step down from what you said. Yes? Did I miss something there?

So again, get close to that .500 number and you have a shot. Get over it and your Cup chances double based on this sample size. But in either case you still have a lot of good and bad teams that fail.
 
txpd

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
A. Habits and expectations. This team expects to win. They have gotten used to it and that will to win comes thru. They win. Facts are that come playoffs, the opposite is true. They expect to lose....somehow. I have thought since the start that this team would win the division and maybe the east. They are one TB cold snap from pushing that agenda.

Come playoffs I expect the usual. The problem is that its the kind of block that can break at anytime. So, this team is well good enough to win the cup and so you are forced to watch knowing what is probably coming
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
8,808
866
And of course the one year the Caps got into the magic all of 8 teams in a 5 year period quadrant they lost in the first round...

And the two years the Pens are in the bad quadrant they win it all and get to the finals. The year they are in the magic quadrant they went out in the first round and the two years in the good quadrant they have a first and second round exit.

The more I look at it statistically if you make the playoffs that chart says you have a better shot of getting to at least the 3rd round if you are in the bad quadrant as opposed to the good one, 7/22 compared to 10/50. So since we know they aren’t going to get into the magic quadrant and our goal is just to get out of the friggin’ 2nd round, I think we should be pulling for them to end up between .450 and .499....
 
Holtbyisms

Holtbyisms

Matt Irwin is a legit talent
Jul 1, 2012
6,978
3,655
Bedford, PA
OVrocks said:
I’m shocked that we’re in first place, this team is way overachieving. We have 2 NHL quality lines and a very questionable defense save for Nisky. Hate to say this, but we’ll more than likely get destroyed in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Thanks captain optimism. :D
 

OVrocks

Registered User
Dec 9, 2009
2,292
591
LA
We have good record due to sheer luck of having 3rd highest shooting percentage and OT points. We are horrible defensively, last in the league in shots per game and have at best 2 lines that are NHL caliber. I don't see us actually winning a playoff series against any team let alone the cup.
 
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