Speculation: Capitals first half of season

[Ridley Simon]

C

Out shot nearly every game
Wildly inconsistent efforts from a large swath of players
No coherent strategy for breakouts or the attack

LOL. If they are a C, then the rest of the NHL is F-

 

[Ridley Simon]

Far too many red flags with this team right now. Dead last in shot generation. Second to last in offensive zone faceoffs (ie forcing the opponent to ice the puck or cover in their own zone). Dead last in offensive zone faceoff wins. Sub 50% possession metrics. Even worse possession metrics in Score Close and Score Tied situations. Bottom third of the league in high danger shot attempts. Floundering third defense pairing (and sometimes second pairing). Struggling powerplay in recent months. Practically non-existent 2nd PP unit. 22nd ranked PK unit. Still no perceivable difference in Barry Trotz's transition or neutral zone schemes. Still no perceivable improvements in team speed. Still too reliant on individual efforts from defensemen to create breakouts that can result in controlled entries.

Obviously not everything is terrible. Ovechkin is once again scoring at a 50G pace. Vrana is exceeding expectations. Djoos is exceeding expectations. Wilson has shown flashes of offensive potential. Stephenson has shown he belongs in the NHL. Kuznetsov's offensive numbers are impressive. Eller has turned around a slow start. Connolly is riding a red hot shooting percentage currently (this could also be a red flag, though). DSP and Chiasson can be useful role players.

The best thing the Caps have going for them right now is that it's been a rough year for the rest of the Eastern Conference (save Tampa) as well. They are still in a good standings position as a result. They have plenty of time to correct the flaws in their game. But make no mistake, these flaws need to be corrected.

Sounds awful. At least it’s a good draft and it sounds like the Caps should be drafting top 5 or so. No? Not top 5?

At least top 10. Commensurate with those rankings you quoted...as their record has to be terrible. No? Not top 10?

They must be getting lucky then. Middle of the pack. Those stats paint a grim picture. Sounds like a fringe playoff team, yes? No? Not fringe?

Ok...I’m seriously confused.

 

[Chukcha]

They have plenty of time to correct the flaws in their game. But make no mistake, these flaws need to be corrected.

Do you really believe our coaching staff is able to correct the flaws? I still see no strong system, the game completely is based on individual effort of our talented roster. When 2 or 3 talents slightly underperform the game momentally becomes "bad bad bad bad bad"(c).

 

[Calicaps]

Sounds awful. At least it’s a good draft and it sounds like the Caps should be drafting top 5 or so. No? Not top 5?

At least top 10. Commensurate with those rankings you quoted...as their record has to be terrible. No? Not top 10?

They must be getting lucky then. Middle of the pack. Those stats paint a grim picture. Sounds like a fringe playoff team, yes? No? Not fringe?

Ok...I’m seriously confused.

I gave them a B mostly because they’ve struggled against crappy teams and that bugs the shit out of me. But I have to agree here. What is the deal with “the underlying numbers”? They are first in their division. Do those results mean less than they would if the magical fancy stats were good? Would they somehow be more in first place if they had a better CF? I don’t get it. You win or you lose. The rest is window dressing.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

It's surprising how high they are in the standings given Backstrom and Kuznetsov have been underwhelming (at best) for most of the season. Toss in lengthy injuries to Niskanen, Oshie, and Burakovsky and it wouldn't be surprising if they were outside of the playoff field at this point.

 

[maacoshark]

Agreed. The end results are strong but a lot of the underlying stuff is indeed worrisome.

It also seems like a lot of the forwards (and lines) aren't very consistent offensively. They're getting enough from a wide range of players, including the fourth line, but the underlying stuff and that inconsistency or flatness make it hard to consider them serious contenders. This formula may work in the regular season but eventually they need to start pivoting more towards crisper, more aggressive and consistently engaged play. When relatively engaged their structure affords them the ability to be a bit funky offensively but it's going to need to tighten up. I'd be more inclined to give an A if 13/92/65 were playing a much more assertive offensive game. Those guys are key for secondary scoring when it matters and I still don't think they've found the right mentality or mix. Wilson's development will help and I like Stephenson's game but I'm still skeptical of the hockey IQ. The East isn't terribly impressive so they may be able to ride the same old approach to the top seed again but I'd hope they're doing a bit more in planning ahead beyond that.

You are skeptical of Stephenson's hockey IQ? The hockey IQ is there. He usually makes the right decisions at both ends of the ice. He isnt the most skilled player on the team and he isn't as big and strong as a lot of players. But he has more hockey IQ than the majority of players on this team. Who has a higher hockey IQ than him on this team? Maybe Backstrom.

 

[Langway]

You are skeptical of Stephenson's hockey IQ? The hockey IQ is there. He usually makes the right decisions at both ends of the ice. He isnt the most skilled player on the team and he isn't as big and strong as a lot of players. But he has more hockey IQ than the majority of players on this team. Who has a higher hockey IQ than him on this team? Maybe Backstrom.

I meant their collective IQ and team play generally. It's sound but I don't know how much elevation they have. They're still not that good through the neutral zone, they struggle to create odd-man rushes and I'm not sure we can expect the likes of DSP, Chiasson, Connolly and Burakovsky to raise their games in the playoffs. So much of what they do overall is effort-based and defensive structure-based but when sheer intensity isn't a factor I wonder about their fundamentals.

As for Stephenson, the big thing missing is more of a shot mentality. He's a very savvy perimeter playmaker and skater but he needs to add that element at times. He needs to dip his shoulder and take it to the net a bit. I'd like to see him at center thanks to that IQ/skating at some point (certainly if there's an injury he deserves it).

 

[notDkristich]

LOL. If they are a C, then the rest of the NHL is F-

What can I say, I'm a perfectionist. I was more impressed with the World Jr's performance last night than most Caps games this season.

 

[maacoshark]

I meant their collective IQ and team play generally. It's sound but I don't know how much elevation they have. They're still not that good through the neutral zone, they struggle to create odd-man rushes and I'm not sure we can expect the likes of DSP, Chiasson, Connolly and Burakovsky to raise their games in the playoffs. So much of what they do overall is effort-based and defensive structure-based but when sheer intensity isn't a factor I wonder about their fundamentals.

As for Stephenson, the big thing missing is more of a shot mentality. He's a very savvy perimeter playmaker and skater but he needs to add that element at times. He needs to dip his shoulder and take it to the net a bit. I'd like to see him at center thanks to that IQ/skating at some point (certainly if there's an injury he deserves it).

I agree about the hockey IQ as a group. We are lacking there a bit. A couple if our stars make poor decisions on a regular basis.
Also agree about Stephenson. He needs to shoot more. The problem is that he is on the 4th line right now and his linemates haven't been great at feeding the puck.

 

[zappa4ever]

Caps could EASILY have given up on this season (like so many fans here), but they sit 2nd in the conference with 53 instead of on the outside looking in at 43. They deserve serious credit

Great to see the young (Djoos/Stephenson/Bowey) and bottom 6 developing/contributing (DSP/Wilson/Chiasson/Connoly)

Halfway through I think their biggest issue is shot generation, PK and breakouts, which I expect to all improve in the 2nd half

Huge + to OV and his conditioning/touch, Orlov, Carlson, Wilson, Vrana and even Orpik

 

[Ridley Simon]

I gave them a B mostly because they’ve struggled against crappy teams and that bugs the **** out of me. But I have to agree here. What is the deal with “the underlying numbers”? They are first in their division. Do those results mean less than they would if the magical fancy stats were good? Would they somehow be more in first place if they had a better CF? I don’t get it. You win or you lose. The rest is window dressing.

As Ajax said...if they can fix the fancy stats, I think they have a good chance to go 40-0-1 the rest of the way. May lose one shootout. Maybe.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

As Ajax said...if they can fix the fancy stats, I think they have a good chance to go 40-0-1 the rest of the way. May lose one shootout. Maybe.

And if they don’t, fire sale it all!

 

[Man Machine]

Well, before the season everyone (me included) thought it was highly doubtful if the would make the play offs. Considering that it's definitely a B.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well, before the season everyone (me included) thought it was highly doubtful if the would make the play offs. Considering that it's definitely a B.

By my recollection very few posters here had them outright missing the playoffs.

 

[Ridley Simon]

By my recollection very few posters here had them outright missing the playoffs.

Honestly, they are about where I thihght they would be. I miss Williams the most, Schmidt 2nd.

That said, Schmidt being here probably (in my mind definitely) would have stunted Djoos’ growth. He’d probably still be in Hershey. I think Bowey would have been the guy here as his style is different. Assuming the Sal Cap numbers worked.

We also don’t know how Carlson would have reacted to playing with Schmidt. I assume he’d have been w him. Carlson seems to have flourished this year, and some of that could easily be attributed to his new mentoring role. Both on and off the ice.

This is a good team. Their last 20 games have been terrific. Tomorrow will be a fun test as many see St Loo as a top contender for the West.

 

[Devil Dancer]

B

They're a couple spots higher in the standings than I expected, but I still don't have a lot of trust in Trotz. The offense is still way too dependent on individual excellence, rather than a solid attacking scheme, and is being held up by a resurgent Ovie. That's not how you win in the playoffs.

I could see this team losing in the first round to an opponent that's inferior on paper.

 

[Holtbyisms]

B+, teams exceeded what not only we but the rest of the NHL expected after losing Alzner, Shattenfail, Schmidt, Williams and Mojo.

That said, we've looked shaky on defense quite a bit but have been able to outscore most people. (which obviously is the main objective), Bura looks to have taken a step backwards, Oshie is struggling since the concussion and Kuzy is having a rough stretch right now.

Positive things now. Ovechkin is playing better than he has in a long time, showing the ability to score at any place on the ice in any way imaginable. Carlson is having a Norris type season (despite that really stupid turnover last game...lol) Vrana has been outstanding in his first full season and has surpassed Bura already unfortunately. Smith-Pelly has been a pleasant surprise. Chandler Stephenson has been unreal good by using his speed. I did not see that coming at all, I expected him to be a cereer AHLer. Ah and who can forget the young guys on D? They have their ups and down for sure but for the most part they're continuing to grow every game and get better every day. Hopefully come playoff time they'll be a little more reliable.

Hopefully we can keep the ball rolling after the break! Go Caps!

 

[OVrocks]

I’m shocked that we’re in first place, this team is way overachieving. We have 2 NHL quality lines and a very questionable defense save for Nisky. Hate to say this, but we’ll more than likely get destroyed in the playoffs.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I'm giving them an A. Why? Because no one expected us to lead the division again, and no one thought that we would get the kind of contribution we've been getting out of the depth players. DSP, Chiasson, Connolly, Wilson are all producing way more than expected. The offense is just clicking, and Holtby is back in his groove. I don't care if the advanced metrics say that our play is unsustainable, we just have to get to the playoffs. The goal isn't to win the President's trophy here. We're doing exactly what we need to do: winning games in the most competitive division in the league.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Was tough to give them a B, could easily be an A- for me. I would give them a solid A if not for those lazy losses to Colorado and other teams even with injuries. Overall, I'm really impressed with the adversity the team has face with salary cap restrictions and injuries. For me, the new replacement vets get an A for contributing and saving their NHL careers.

Go Caps!

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I'm giving them an A. Why? Because no one expected us to lead the division again, and no one thought that we would get the kind of contribution we've been getting out of the depth players. DSP, Chiasson, Connolly, Wilson are all producing way more than expected. The offense is just clicking, and Holtby is back in his groove. I don't care if the advanced metrics say that our play is unsustainable, we just have to get to the playoffs. The goal isn't to win the President's trophy here. We're doing exactly what we need to do: winning games in the most competitive division in the league.

Yep just get in the playoffs and a new season begins.

 

[Hivemind]

Sounds awful. At least it’s a good draft and it sounds like the Caps should be drafting top 5 or so. No? Not top 5?

At least top 10. Commensurate with those rankings you quoted...as their record has to be terrible. No? Not top 10?

They must be getting lucky then. Middle of the pack. Those stats paint a grim picture. Sounds like a fringe playoff team, yes? No? Not fringe?

Ok...I’m seriously confused.

I gave them a B mostly because they’ve struggled against crappy teams and that bugs the **** out of me. But I have to agree here. What is the deal with “the underlying numbers”? They are first in their division. Do those results mean less than they would if the magical fancy stats were good? Would they somehow be more in first place if they had a better CF? I don’t get it. You win or you lose. The rest is window dressing.

Wins/losses don't have much predictive value in the future. The underlying numbers do. There's always 1-2 teams each season that make the playoffs with poor underlying numbers. They almost never go far, and almost always implode the next season.

 

[Sam Spade]

This pretty much sums up my feelings on the 1st half of this season:

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Good someone caught that kid. My wife and I rewatched his reaction a few times. Classic.

 

[Corby78]

Wins/losses don't have much predictive value in the future. The underlying numbers do. There's always 1-2 teams each season that make the playoffs with poor underlying numbers. They almost never go far, and almost always implode the next season.

So when predicting if a team will win a game in the future, don't look to see if they won games in the past? That's amazing since wins and losses are not determined by advanced stats, but who scores more goals. And since that's the same formula that will determine who wins the next game.....