Salary Cap: Cap and roster management challenges for Jets

[knorthern knight]

This thread is based on signings up to July 23rd, plus assume...
Wheeler signs for $5,250,000
Bogosian signs for $6,000,000
O'Dell signs for $750,000 $600,000
CapGeek is working for me today, so I can use their printout, instead of doing my own. Here's a potential 24-man roster.

My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Andrew Ladd ($4.400m) / Bryan Little ($4.700m) / Blake Wheeler ($5.250m)
Evander Kane ($5.250m) / Mark Scheifele ($1.563m) / Devin Setoguchi ($3.000m)
Eric Tangradi ($0.675m) / Olli Jokinen ($4.500m) / Michael Frolik ($2.333m)
Jim Slater ($1.600m) / Anthony Peluso ($0.563m)
James Wright ($0.650m) / Chris Thorburn ($0.867m)
Eric O'Dell ($0.750m $0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Tobias Enstrom ($5.750m) / Zach Bogosian ($6.000m)
Grant Clitsome ($2.067m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Mark Stuart ($1.700m) / Paul Postma ($0.713m)
Adam Pardy ($0.600m) / Zach Redmond ($0.715m)
GOALTENDERS
Ondrej Pavelec ($3.900m)
Al Montoya ($0.601m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,346,000 $63,196,000; BONUSES: $575,000
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $1,529,000 $1,679,000

Updated for signings to the end of July 26 (including Wheeler), and also the clarification that O'Dell is still waiver-exempt. The only estimate in this version is Bogosian at $6 million per

My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Andrew Ladd ($4.400m) / Bryan Little ($4.700m) / Blake Wheeler ($5.600m)
Evander Kane ($5.250m) / Mark Scheifele ($1.563m) / Devin Setoguchi ($3.000m)
Eric Tangradi ($0.675m) / Olli Jokinen ($4.500m) / Michael Frolik ($2.333m)
Jim Slater ($1.600m) / Anthony Peluso ($0.563m)
James Wright ($0.650m) / Chris Thorburn ($0.867m)
DEFENSEMEN
Tobias Enstrom ($5.750m) / Zach Bogosian ($6.000m)
Grant Clitsome ($2.067m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Mark Stuart ($1.700m) / Paul Postma ($0.713m)
Adam Pardy ($0.600m) / Zach Redmond ($0.715m)
GOALTENDERS
Ondrej Pavelec ($3.900m)
Al Montoya ($0.601m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,946,000; BONUSES: $575,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,929,000

I was going treat do roster management separately, but it strongly affects cap management, and visa versa. The numbers show us with (hypothetically) under a two million of salary cap room. An additional $575,000 in bonus cushion is also available. But you'd be robbing from Peter (next year's cap) to pay Paul (this year's cap), so I'd prefer to avoid that.

Chevy may want to pluck somebody off the waiver wire (again ), so that's cutting it a bit thin. Besides, we'll run into injuries, so we'll have to call up guys from St. John's. And we do have to cut the roster down to 23. If things get tight in the cap and/or roster-slot situation, our options for sending people down to St John's are...

1. Thorburn... nice guy overall, but probably playing his last season with us anyways. Not waiver-exempt, but "waiver-proof"; $866,667 cap-hit reduction
2. Jokinen... again probably playing his last season with us anyways. Not waiver-exempt, but "waiver-proof"; $925,000 cap-hit reduction
3. Scheifele... waiver-exempt. His 2-way contract results in a $1,563,333 cap-hit reduction.

Some additional comments...

• KHL == "Kap Helping League". If we had signed Burmistrov to a "show me" contract around $1.8 million, we would be screwed cap-wise. As it is, we keep his NHL rights, without a penny against our cap limit.
• I got flack for suggesting a compliance buyout of Jokinen. His injury situation made that a moot point, but an extra $4.5 million cap space would sure look nice right about now.
• Remember all the demands that Chevy get expensive UFAs, because "we've got tons of cap room"? #that's_why_Chevy_didn't_do_anything
• And don't expect us to pick up waiver-wire players or UFAs out of the blue this season, unless we clear some cap space first.

EDIT: As per thread http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1474437 O'Dell has signed for $600,000. I had estimated $750,000. Numbers have been adjusted as necessary.

EDIT: Major update for Wheeler signing, and O'Dell being waiver-exempt

Click to read more...

 

[Reed Solomon]

But you'd be robbing from Peter (next year's cap) to pay Paul (this year's cap), so I'd prefer to avoid that.

All the same, the cap is going to go up.

 

[knorthern knight]

All the same, the cap is going to go up.

Yes, but maybe we'll want to use it for other purposes.

 

[Duir]

No Halischuck?

 

[Dabucs02]

I think we will have about 4 million left in cap space and that's without Trouba in the lineup.

IMO your numbers are high. I did the same thing and get around 61 million

 

[boanst]

No Halischuck?

Capgeek lists Halischuk as a non-roster player. I'm not so sure it will stay that way, but somebody will have to be sent down/waived or traded.

 

[KingBogo]

No matter what Wheeler and Bogo sign for we will be safely under the cap with a complete roster. not saying Chevy can't or won't make moves, but at least he will have a little wiggle room if something comes up.

 

[knorthern knight]

No Halischuck?

I'm going mostly by CapGeek's list of roster players. There are several guys in St John's who have an outside shot at making the Jets as of the start of the season. Depending on who does/doesn't impresss during training camp, the opening day lineup could change.

 

[truck]

I think we will have about 4 million left in cap space and that's without Trouba in the lineup.

IMO your numbers are high. I did the same thing and get around 61 million

My math says $2-4MM depending on Bogo, Wheeler and whether or not Trouba sticks.

Pretty close to where I had things in May. http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/5/2/4293308/winnipeg-jets-2013-salary-cap-space-problems

 

[EpicGingy]

I'm not too worried about the cap.

It's going to be going up over the next few years and if we do get up to the limit this year I doubt there's going to be any players sent down that would break my heart.

 

[surixon]

Jokinin comes off the cap as well next summer and a good two-way 3 C should cost 3 million, coupled with a rising cap and the Jets should be in good shape to continue to shape their roster next off season. The only players up for renegotiation of note are Seto and Frolik, give Seto the 1.5 million from the Olie savings and give Frolik a slight raise and we should be fine.

 

[hockeyarena]

Bogosian getting $6 million....puhlease. Jets will have no cap challenges for a while. Jokinen off the books next season, assuming Setoguchi gets a raise we have all our key guys signed by then for under $64mil.

 

[allan5oh]

Didn't I pretty much bring this up a few weeks ago? Mind you that was before Burmistrov leaving for the KHL.

 

[pcanuck]

I am concerned. Draft and develop means moving on from some older players for younger more inexpensive players. We're signing non-franchise players for 5-6 years and these guys are not franchise players.

We'll be very close to the cap this year and that's without Burmistrov. I heard ppl say Little might get 3.5M per (he got 4.7 and a 5 year deal). Wheeler will get 5M+ and Bogo will get similar money easily!

Pavs got one, then Enstrom ... How are you feeling about their contracts now? Now that we have Trouba, Redmond, Postma - we NEED to play Enstrom because of his contract. You can't pay everyone and if Chevy is true to the idea that we're a draft-develop team, Where do these 3 players fit? 2X Stuff Buff is making over 5M, Clitsome is a reasonable 2M per and this will likely be Stuart's last year or he'll be traded shortly OR we'll be trading our younger players like Postma.

My prediction -
Either Buff or Enstrom is traded or bought out before the beginning of next year. I will also suggest that if Pavs does little to develop this year, he'll be bought out too. We will use both compliance buyouts. This is wasting money.

Seti will expect a raise, Jokinen will walk but we will have other players popping on the roster with their entry level contracts. We can't afford everyone at any price.

 

[wpgsilver]

I am concerned. Draft and develop means moving on from some older players for younger more inexpensive players. We're signing non-franchise players for 5-6 years and these guys are not franchise players.

We'll be very close to the cap this year and that's without Burmistrov. I heard ppl say Little might get 3.5M per (he got 4.7 and a 5 year deal). Wheeler will get 5M+ and Bogo will get similar money easily!

Pavs got one, then Enstrom ... How are you feeling about their contracts now? Now that we have Trouba, Redmond, Postma - we NEED to play Enstrom because of his contract. You can't pay everyone and if Chevy is true to the idea that we're a draft-develop team, Where do these 3 players fit? 2X Stuff Buff is making over 5M, Clitsome is a reasonable 2M per and this will likely be Stuart's last year or he'll be traded shortly OR we'll be trading our younger players like Postma.

My prediction -
Either Buff or Enstrom is traded or bought out before the beginning of next year. I will also suggest that if Pavs does little to develop this year, he'll be bought out too. We will use both compliance buyouts. This is wasting money.

Seti will expect a raise, Jokinen will walk but we will have other players popping on the roster with their entry level contracts. We can't afford everyone at any price.

Ladd
Kane
Wheeler
Little (our 1C ATM, or in the future our very good 2C)
Bogosian
Enstrom

Are all ESSENTIAL parts of this team. These are players you want locked up long term. And comparatively they all have reasonable cap hits.

The only semi-blunder I've seen in regards to long contracts was Pavs. I think a three year deal would've been better.

EDIT: huge blunder however was not locking up Tony P for eight years. I like that guy.

 

[cbcwpg]

Question:

Do the Jets still have one of those "one time" buyouts available for them to use, and when's the last day they can use it if they do?

Just thinking if they run into cap problems or just see that "someone" is really sucking in the pre-season and they want to dump a large contract.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

I love this.......... here we are arguing how we are going to stay under the Cap. Is the most recent signing going to stop us from doing x or y in the future.

2 years ago we are picking up Randy Jones, Derek Meech and Kyle Wellwood as UFAs and are 15 mill below the Cap and close low to mid Cap team. Now we are going to be bumping up close to the Cap limit........

We can argue all we want about the signings and the merit/results on the ice...... but this thread needs to acknowledge that Chipman/Thompson TNSE is putting their chips into the the game and are playing at the Big Boy Table.

(edit)After we sign Wheeler and Bogo to long term deals of course.......

 

[King Woodballs]

Question:

Do the Jets still have one of those "one time" buyouts available for them to use, and when's the last day they can use it if they do?

Just thinking if they run into cap problems or just see that "someone" is really sucking in the pre-season and they want to dump a large contract.

They have both
The wondow closed a day or two before free agency started.

They can use one or both next offseason if they feel they need too.

 

[surixon]

They have both
The wondow closed a day or two before free agency started.

They can use one or both next offseason if they feel they need too.

Yup if Pavs has another sub par year I can see them exercising one on him!

 

[King Woodballs]

Yup if Pavs has another sub par year I can see them exercising one on him!

I don't

 

[wpgsilver]

I don't

Me neither.
It would be a Kevin Glenn situation. Why get rid of Pavs with no replacement available.
Unless Stefan LeFors can play goalie.

 

[Grind]

Me neither.
It would be a Kevin Glenn situation. Why get rid of Pavs with no replacement available.
Unless Stefan LeFors can play goalie.

if pav's has another sub .910 season there's a plethora of goalies available in free agency who would cost significantly less and perform roughly the same.

 

[Thesaurus]

Me neither.
It would be a Kevin Glenn situation. Why get rid of Pavs with no replacement available.
Unless Stefan LeFors can play goalie.

What if we sign Henrik Lundqvist?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Pavelec's trade value might be low, but I don't think it's untradeable low. There will always be the Philadelphia's and Tampa Bay's of the world who will give up assets for unproven goaltending.

if pav's has another sub .910 season there's a plethora of goalies available in free agency who would cost significantly less and perform roughly the same.

Took the words out of my mouth.

IMO the "no adequate replacement" mentality was the exact type of thinking that lead to Chevy giving him that stupid contract in the first place.

 

[Duke749]

I am concerned. Draft and develop means moving on from some older players for younger more inexpensive players. We're signing non-franchise players for 5-6 years and these guys are not franchise players.

We'll be very close to the cap this year and that's without Burmistrov. I heard ppl say Little might get 3.5M per (he got 4.7 and a 5 year deal). Wheeler will get 5M+ and Bogo will get similar money easily!

Pavs got one, then Enstrom ... How are you feeling about their contracts now? Now that we have Trouba, Redmond, Postma - we NEED to play Enstrom because of his contract. You can't pay everyone and if Chevy is true to the idea that we're a draft-develop team, Where do these 3 players fit? 2X Stuff Buff is making over 5M, Clitsome is a reasonable 2M per and this will likely be Stuart's last year or he'll be traded shortly OR we'll be trading our younger players like Postma.

My prediction -
Either Buff or Enstrom is traded or bought out before the beginning of next year. I will also suggest that if Pavs does little to develop this year, he'll be bought out too. We will use both compliance buyouts. This is wasting money.

Seti will expect a raise, Jokinen will walk but we will have other players popping on the roster with their entry level contracts. We can't afford everyone at any price.

Enstrom was the oldest player we've signed to a long term contract and he was what, 26, 27 when he signed it??

We don't have franchise players. Kane is the closest and Bogo still has to take the next step to reach that.

Enstrom needs I play so he can help us make te playoffs. For what he can bring his contract is more then fine.

After this offseason what players will need big raises? Seto? HA!! He might not even stay and Joker's $4.5 is coming off the books.

Couple that with the cap raising as well. Unless Redmond or Postma take a huge step forward, no one will be due for a big raise for three years. And that'll be Scheif and Trouba. And the cap will likely be at least $10 mill higher then it is now.

You think one of Buff or Enstrom will be bought out??!? I need more facepalms. [mod]

If people think we'll have cap issues over the next few years them so will every other team in the league.