Predicting a winner in this one is difficult because both teams are very evenly matched. I think it will be tight either way, with the winner probably winning by a goal and no more than 2.
I think there are several issues that will determine who will win this game:
1) How well will the US defence handle Canada's forechecking pressure?
Most of the US offense is created on attacks off the rush using their speed. Canada, on the other hand, creates most of its chances by giving you the puck deep in your end, putting intense pressure on the d to get to the puck quickly and make a quick decision. If the US d can make sound decisions under pressure most of the time they will be able to advance the puck quickly and create chances off the rush. If they panic and turn the puck over, Canada will quickly pounce on US breakdowns and the US forwards will have difficulty creating much offense.
I know the US looked impressive beating the Swedes but they haven't faced a forecheck close to what they will see from Canada. The Swedes were so passive the American d could have got to the puck, had lunch, taken the dog for a walk and had an afternoon nap before they were required to headman the puck. I'm sure the Swedes would still be standing in the neutral zone in a 1-4 formation if we allowed it.
2) Can the US defensemen handle Canada's forwards down low below the dots? It seems every time Canada and the US play in international competition the determining factor is the match-up between Canada's forwards and the US defense deep in the US zone. Like most Canadian teams, Canada's forwards are big, fast and tenacious. If the US d can avoid turning the puck over under pressure they won't have to spend a lot of time on the d side of the puck. When they do turn the puck over (and they will occasionally the question is how often) will they be able to recover their position and prevent Canada from capitalizing on their chances?
3) Will Canada be able to prevent the American forwards, and in particular Kessel and his linemates from creating chances off the rush? And, if Canada is able to nullify the American attack off the rush and eliminate odd-man rushes will the Americans be able to take a page out of Canada's book and creates chances off of in zone attacks? While I think Kessel has an outstanding package of skills and is extremely dynamic one on one, I also think his offensive game is too one dimensional at this point in his career. Of the major international competitions Kessel has played in it seems to me that most of his goals are a result of beating a defenseman off the rush (usually a Swedish defenseman). I can't recall him outmuscling a dman below the goalline and paying the price to score. If I'm Canada everytime Kessel is on the ice I put the puck deep in the American end and make him go 200 feet to score. I make sure I have 2 of Bourdon, Mikkelson and Parent on the ice, I put my best checking forwards on the ice, particularly Cody Bass who is ideal for this type of assignment. I take the mid lane of the ice away, steer everything towards the bad ice along the boards. Additionally, the combination of strong gap control by the Canadian d and strong backside pressure from the Canadian forwards will limit Kessel's time and space and prevent him and his linemates from interchanging positions and thus confusing Canada's dmen. If I'm Shawn Camp my strategy is to force the other 3 American forward lines and their d to beat me.
4) Goaltending: Both Price and Frazee are very good. Price has a huge frame and is a tremendous athlete. He has some technical flaws that cost him some goals (both goals in the Czech game) but aside from the one goal against the Swedes he's been solid for Canada. Frazee is a solid positional goaltender who is extremely efficient in his movements. He'll need to be strong against Canada's down low options (jams, walkouts, passouts and one timers). If I'm Canada I'm shooting the puck 6 inches off the ice off his pads and crashing the net for rebounds.
5) Depth: The US has the best offensive forward in the game. They have arguably the best two way dman in the game in Johnson (although it's hard to argue against Bourdon). They also have a strong supporting cast up front with Mueller, Stoa and Skille. However, I think there is a huge drop off on the American blueline after Johnson and I wouldn't be surprised if Canada exploits this. Overall, I think Canada's blueline is deeper than the US blueline and I think if Canada can slow down the Kessel line the other 3 US forward lines are not good enough to beat Canada.
I'll take Canada to win 4-2 win an empty netter. Of course, being a Canadian I respect the opposition but also expect Canada to rise to the occasion and win every time we play for a gold medal.