Calder Watch & Predictions

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Lawzy

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While I appreciate your general sentiment let's not diminish the accomplishments of Barzal because he plays on the "better" team.

Based on that kind of logic Keller is more worthy of the Calder because he plays on a team far worse than Boeser and he's right up there in points. I doubt many Boeser fans would like this argument, but it's the exact argument a few of them are making.

There are in fact pluses to playing on the first line as both Boeser and Keller will usually play the most minutes on the team and they also get the advantage of playing with the "best" players on the team as linemates. Barzal plays with lesser players and plays less minutes for example. So while he "may" or "theoretically" play against lesser defensive pairs, he's also playing alongside lesser players. Ladd at 32 years of age has less points than both Sedins for example and Eberle slumped the entire season playing alongside Tavares and his scoring did not begin until he began playing for Barzal.

Which brings me to my final point. Do we award Boeser or Keller the Calder because they were great players inspite of playing for poor teams or do we award Barzal the Calder who plays for a good team because of the great player that is Barzal?

Just looking at this video, does it look like it would really matter what team Barzal plays for? He's a one man army and creates scoring chances nearly every shift. That's what makes him Calder worthy, not the team he plays for.





There are so many promising rookies playing in the NHL today. I'd be happy to have anyone of them, but I am extremely happy that my Isles got Barzal.


In terms of linemates:

Eberle: 30GP - 12G - 10A - 22P - 0.73PPG
Ladd: 30GP - 8G - 7A - 15P - 0.500PPG

Horvat: 28GP - 10G - 10A - 20P - 0.714PPG
Baertschi: 30GP - 8G - 10A - 18P - 0.600PPG

Even if you give the Canucks pair the benefit of the doubt, that's hardly a difference at all. Now, if we incorporate Barzal's PP linemates into the equation, this argument disappears.

Mathew Barzal:
PP TOI - 102:35
PP TOI/GP - 3:25
PPP - 9
Linemates: Lee, Tavares, Bailey, Nick Leddy

Lee, Tavares, Bailey, and Leddy have combined for 119P in 120GP (0.992PPG)

Brock Boeser:
PP TOI - 79:25
PP TOI/GP - 2:50
PPP - 12
Linemates: Sedin, Sedin, Horvat, and one of Pouliot/Edler/Hutton/Del Zotto.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and include the highest scoring defenseman (Del Zotto). Sedin, Sedin, Horvat, Del Zotto have combined for 67P in 121GP (0.554PPG).

So Barzal gets more PP time (0:35 a game) than Boeser with significantly better players but puts up less points.

Now in terms of Barzal getting less overall icetime, that's just flat out false.

Mathew Barzal: TOI/GP - 16:40
Brock Boeser : TOI/GP - 16:13

I'm not sure where you got that from. I'm guessing you assumed Boeser getting first line minutes means he'll be getting more than Barzal getting 2nd line minutes. Not a bad assumption but Green rolls all lines fairly equally.


The Canucks are AWFUL offensively (2.64GF/GP, 27th in the NHL). Whereas the Islanders are great offensively (3.53GF/GP, 2nd in the NHL). Without Boeser, the Canucks are a top 3 lottery team right now.

I'm not saying Barzal doesn't deserve the Calder. I'd put him and Boeser neck and neck. Every time I watch Barzal (he's from my hometown so I watch him a fair bit when I get the chance) he's absolutely electric. But please. A little respect here. Boeser has been every bit as impressive as Barzal.

EDIT: @Rehabguy FYI, I'm not trying to target you. When I say a little respect, I'm referring to the thread in general. Your post was fairly respectful and brings up good points.
 

M2Beezy

Objective and Neutral Hockey Commentator
May 25, 2014
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I think we can all agree, if the question is Brock or Barzal, the answer is YES.
I really think Mcavoy needs to be in the top three discussion. And someone pointed out i had Serg too low before as well and watched more of him and was really impressed.

Bratt and Butcher with points already tonight too. What a rookie crop. Im sure Hischier will do something before the end of the game too
 

Rehabguy

Registered User
Oct 2, 2011
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In terms of linemates:

Eberle: 30GP - 12G - 10A - 22P - 0.73PPG
Ladd: 30GP - 8G - 7A - 15P - 0.500PPG

Horvat: 28GP - 10G - 10A - 20P - 0.714PPG
Baertschi: 30GP - 8G - 10A - 18P - 0.600PPG

Even if you give the Canucks pair the benefit of the doubt, that's hardly a difference at all. Now, if we incorporate Barzal's PP linemates into the equation, this argument disappears.

Mathew Barzal:
PP TOI - 102:35
PP TOI/GP - 3:25
PPP - 9
Linemates: Lee, Tavares, Bailey, Nick Leddy

Lee, Tavares, Bailey, and Leddy have combined for 119P in 120GP (0.992PPG)

Brock Boeser:
PP TOI - 79:25
PP TOI/GP - 2:50
PPP - 12
Linemates: Sedin, Sedin, Horvat, and one of Pouliot/Edler/Hutton/Del Zotto.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and include the highest scoring defenseman (Del Zotto). Sedin, Sedin, Horvat, Del Zotto have combined for 67P in 121GP (0.554PPG).

So Barzal gets more PP time (0:35 a game) than Boeser with significantly better players but puts up less points.

Now in terms of Barzal getting less overall icetime, that's just flat out false.

Mathew Barzal: TOI/GP - 16:40
Brock Boeser : TOI/GP - 16:13

I'm not sure where you got that from. I'm guessing you assumed Boeser getting first line minutes means he'll be getting more than Barzal getting 2nd line minutes. Not a bad assumption but Green rolls all lines fairly equally.


The Canucks are AWFUL offensively (2.64GF/GP, 27th in the NHL). Whereas the Islanders are great offensively (3.53GF/GP, 2nd in the NHL). Without Boeser, the Canucks are a top 3 lottery team right now.

I'm not saying Barzal doesn't deserve the Calder. I'd put him and Boeser neck and neck. Every time I watch Barzal (he's from my hometown so I watch him a fair bit when I get the chance) he's absolutely electric. But please. A little respect here. Boeser has been every bit as impressive as Barzal.

EDIT: @Rehabguy FYI, I'm not trying to target you. When I say a little respect, I'm referring to the thread in general. Your post was fairly respectful and brings up good points.


Nice analysis and yes I did make some assumptions in my post. Boeser looks very much a fantastic player and I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out. The Nucks are very lucky to have landed him and they should be excited about how he's playing. They're two completely different players who play 2 different and unique styles and 2 different forward positions.

I haven't seen as Boeser as much as I've watched Barzal. I wish someone would post a highlights video on the body of his work thus far. The problem with points is it doesn't tell the whole story. It doesn't tell us the context in which those points were scored. I know Boeser has got a great accurate shot, but how is he in all other aspects of his game? He scores a lot of goals thus far. Were they gamebreakers were many of them tap ins, garbage goals, easy put aways? I don't know. Is what he is doing so noteworthy that his skill level is so beyond Barzal's that he is the clear cut Calder favorite? I don't know. What I do know is that Barzal's offensive threat is far greater than what his total points earned thus far suggest, even if he's still leading all rookies.

For example in your analysis you state that Barzal scores less than Boeser in the PP. While that would be factual you would be drawing the completely wrong inference that Barzal was less effective on the PP. It doesn't tell you what happened BEFORE points were scored in the PP. First of all you have to realize that it's because of Barzal that the Islanders have so many PP opportunities to begin with. He leads all rookies and is quite possibly somewhere at the top all NHL players in drawing penalties simply because most teams can't stop him. Secondly, more often than not it's Barzal who gains zone entry during the PP. And thirdly, it's more often than not a great set-up from Barzal somewhere during the powerplay that leads to a goal but it's not recorded in the points- whether as NYI color commentators like to say- a trip around the globe, or a sweet saucer pass. He figures in many PP goals even though it's not recorded in the points. Can the same be said about Boeser. Is every shift, practically a highlight reel for him?

As far as Barzal all you would have to do is look at that video I referred to before. All you have to do is let you eyes be your guide. When was the last time you've seen anything like that? Non-Islander fans are throwing up names like Datsyuk, Yserman, Sakic, Kane. He centers a line comprised of two players who many posters on these very boards mocked (Ladd and Eberle) as bad acquisitions for the Isles ( and yes before Barzal they were pretty bad for what the Isles were paying them) and created the much needed 1-2 punch down the center with two bonafide top lines, launching the Isles into playoff contention. That has MUCHO to do with Barzal folks, there's no two ways about it.

This is year 1, 30 games into the season for a young Barzal not yet in his prime. Calder or not he's already playing like a super star. If you can say the same thing about Boeser then more power to the Canucks and I owe them a congratulations.

Could a Nucks fan create a video that highlights Boeser's game in the same fashion as the Barzal video. That would be great, then we can put their skill levels to an eye test. I want to see what makes this kid so phenomenal head to head.
 
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Emperoreddy

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Apr 13, 2010
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I really think Mcavoy needs to be in the top three discussion. And someone pointed out i had Serg too low before as well and watched more of him and was really impressed.

Bratt and Butcher with points already tonight too. What a rookie crop. Im sure Hischier will do something before the end of the game too

Just an excellent rookie crop. So many kids looking like legit stars out there. It is a lot of fun.
 

Syckle78

Registered User
Nov 5, 2011
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Redford, MI


Barzal is fourth in points in the Islanders. Boeser is first with the Canucks with 28 points, the next guy is Bo Horvat with 20 points. This is not discounting Barzal as I have seen him play against the Canucks where he looks dominant, Right now they are very close.

He is the only hope we have right now aside from Bo Horvat. The rest of the Canucks have been awful.

Poor Donald audette sticks out like a sore thumb. Lol fantastic company.

Edit: Dionne also,just glanced and thought it was Marcel.
 

Grub

First Line Troll
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The amount of talent to come into the league the last few years is ridiculous. The next decade is going to be fun.
Yep. I don't know if people are seeing it but it seems players are retiring younger and young players are able to play in the league much faster.
 

Rehabguy

Registered User
Oct 2, 2011
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Yep. I don't know if people are seeing it but it seems players are retiring younger and young players are able to play in the league much faster.

It took time, but we're also just returning to drafting skill over just size. We're bringing back 80's hockey when scoring was high NOT due to smaller goalie equipment but due to more skill. So many people wrongly assume that it was easier to score in the 80's ignoring the advent of better training and composite sticks- advantages those players didn't have. This is so good for hockey. Scoring should increase as we bring more of these skilled smaller players back into the game. The powers that be finally realized that as NHL players became less respectful of each other teams began drafting first for size then second for skill. Thus scoring went down. With all these rule changes over the years to protect skilled players and eliminating head hunters real talent is again taking center stage.

Why Size Doesn't Matter in Today’s Game
 

Howe Elbows 9

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Sep 16, 2007
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Rookies with 60+ points since 2013-14:

PlayerTeamSeasonGPGAPts
Artemi PanarinChicago2015-1680304777
Auston MatthewsToronto2016-1782402969
Patrik LaineWinnipeg2016-1773362864
Mark StoneOttawa2014-1580263864
Johnny GaudreauCalgary2014-1580244064
Filip ForsbergNashville2014-1582263763
Nathan MacKinnonColorado2013-1482243963
William NylanderToronto 2016-1781223961
Mitchell MarnerToronto2016-1777194261
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Axel574

Registered User
Dec 9, 2015
1,742
1,161
Mathew Barzal:
PP TOI - 102:35
PP TOI/GP - 3:25
PPP - 9
Linemates: Lee, Tavares, Bailey, Nick Leddy

Lee, Tavares, Bailey, and Leddy have combined for 119P in 120GP (0.992PPG)

Brock Boeser:
PP TOI - 79:25
PP TOI/GP - 2:50
PPP - 12
Linemates: Sedin, Sedin, Horvat, and one of Pouliot/Edler/Hutton/Del Zotto.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and include the highest scoring defenseman (Del Zotto). Sedin, Sedin, Horvat, Del Zotto have combined for 67P in 121GP (0.554PPG).

So Barzal gets more PP time (0:35 a game) than Boeser with significantly better players but puts up less points.

Now in terms of Barzal getting less overall icetime, that's just flat out false.

Mathew Barzal: TOI/GP - 16:40
Brock Boeser : TOI/GP - 16:13

.

Did you ever consider the reason Lee, JT, Josh and Leddy have had some success on the PP is BECUASE of Brazal? The Islanders PP was awful last season (been on a bit of a slide lately as well) and one could argue the reason it has improved this year is due to the one thing that's changed ... Matthew Brazal.
 

PWJunior

Stay safe!
Apr 11, 2010
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Did you ever consider the reason Lee, JT, Josh and Leddy have had some success on the PP is BECUASE of Brazal? The Islanders PP was awful last season (been on a bit of a slide lately as well) and one could argue the reason it has improved this year is due to the one thing that's changed ... Matthew Brazal.

Barzal has been a very big factor on the PP. He takes pressure off Leddy in zone entries and he allows the Isles to attack from both half walls. Lee is the anchor in front of the net, Bailey plays the right point/half wall, Tavares roams the top of the key area. The PP doesn't run through Tavares anymore, Bailey and Barzal are the primary playmakers. It's a pretty drastic change considering the PP has always ran through Tavares his whole career.

Lee and Tavares are scoring more goals, Bailey and Barzal are assist machines, and Leddy is having a strong offensive season. The numbers reflect the change in PP configuration.
 

Lawzy

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May 27, 2011
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BC
Did you ever consider the reason Lee, JT, Josh and Leddy have had some success on the PP is BECUASE of Brazal? The Islanders PP was awful last season (been on a bit of a slide lately as well) and one could argue the reason it has improved this year is due to the one thing that's changed ... Matthew Brazal.

That wasn't the point I was making. Anybody who is claiming that Mathew Barzal hasn't been a huge addition to the Islanders powerplay is 1) not watching Islanders games or 2) being willfully ignorant.

The point I was making was that it is incredibly disingenuous to claim Boeser gets the benefit of playing with better players than Barzal. Regardless of how well their powerplay was last year, nobody would argue Del Zotto, Sedin, Sedin, Horvat > Tavares, Lee, Bailey, Leddy in any situation (presently).

FYI, the Islanders PP without Barzal (2016-2017) had a PP% of 14.95% (28th) which has now jumped to 19.41% (14th) with Barzal (2017-2018). The Canucks PP without Boeser (2016-2017) had a PP% of 14.09% (29th) which has now jumped to 20.56% (8th) with Boeser (2017-2018). Again, I am not making the argument that Barzal has been poor on the powerplay. I'm simply stating Boeser has been better with worse support.
 

Grub

First Line Troll
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I've lived in Coquitlam all my life, haven't seen much kids make it from Coquitlam to the big leagues... Barzal is a good old Coquitlam boy, can't help but cheer for him. In fact now that I mention it... I think he is the only one playing in the league from Coquitlam. Most of you will probably say where the heck is that..
 
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613Leafer

Registered User
May 26, 2008
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Right now, I'd say McAvoy, Barzal, and Boeser.

McAvoy is 1st in TOI/G by rookies, and it's not close. 23:27/game vs #2 Hagg at 19:21. He also has 15 points in 27 games, which is a ~46 point pace.

Boeser and Barzal are the top two rookie scorers, though I'd give Boeser the edge given that he has more goals, and is also leading his team in scoring (Barzal is 4th on the Islanders).

If everyone stayed at their current pace, then I'd have to go with Boeser. He's a PPG player right now, so even though McAvoy's been very impressive, a ~45 point rookie dman is a lot more common than an ~82 point rookie forward. I suspect the offensive paces will change though.
 
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Zhamnov5GoalGame

Former Director of GDT Operations
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If Kyle Connor can stay healthy I think he will be much closer to the top of this list. Unlikely he gets all the way to the top but he likely is in the top 3 - 4 spot or better.

Too many good rookies to call now.
 

CodeE

step on snek
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I've lived in Coquitlam all my life, haven't seen much kids make it from Coquitlam to the big leagues... Barzal is a good old Coquitlam boy, can't help but cheer for him. In fact now that I mention it... I think he is the only one playing in the league from Coquitlam. Most of you will probably say where the heck is that..

Before this year, the record for most career NHL points scored by a player from Coquitlam was 3.

Elite Prospects - Hockey Players from Coquitlam, BC, CAN
 

Rehabguy

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Oct 2, 2011
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That wasn't the point I was making. Anybody who is claiming that Mathew Barzal hasn't been a huge addition to the Islanders powerplay is 1) not watching Islanders games or 2) being willfully ignorant.

The point I was making was that it is incredibly disingenuous to claim Boeser gets the benefit of playing with better players than Barzal. Regardless of how well their powerplay was last year, nobody would argue Del Zotto, Sedin, Sedin, Horvat > Tavares, Lee, Bailey, Leddy in any situation (presently).

FYI, the Islanders PP without Barzal (2016-2017) had a PP% of 14.95% (28th) which has now jumped to 19.41% (14th) with Barzal (2017-2018). The Canucks PP without Boeser (2016-2017) had a PP% of 14.09% (29th) which has now jumped to 20.56% (8th) with Boeser (2017-2018). Again, I am not making the argument that Barzal has been poor on the powerplay. I'm simply stating Boeser has been better with worse support.


I think you just have to be careful how you are using statistics to make assumptions. It's very easy to be mislead by numbers, especially when utilizing descriptive statistics to support your arguments. For example, your PP assumptions regarding Barzal are not accurate. You're basing it on percentages of their overall PP without taking into account that there are two powerplay teams on the Islanders. A more telling, though still weak argument, would be to isolate Barzal's effectiveness when he is on the ice during the PP. But again, even that kind of analysis is sketchy at best.

As for Barzal playing for lesser linemates. There is an a genuine argument for that as long as you are not making a one sided assumption. Most Islander fans would say Ladd and Eberle's numbers improved once they were put alongside Barzal. Using descriptive statistics, (again a weak method) you could easily find the data to support that. You are assuming that Barzal is playing with strong wingers, when the opposite may actually be true and it was BECAUSE OF Barzal that their numbers improved.
 
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