Calder Watch & Predictions

[Captain Bowie]

So do i. Which is why maybe you let tavares walk and throw all your eggs in the karlsson basket.

Barzal is one of the best players in the league this year. He is efficient, smart, handsome, and damn good.

That still wouldn't address the Islanders issues would it?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Barzal has been tremendous, no question...but claiming hes better than Tavares is...yea, sorry no.

 

[Captain Bowie]

There were quite a few actually, ironically all in the Barzal thread. Since you asked here for your review.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135888699/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135893019/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135885413/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/137573215/

I particularly liked this one:

This is the weakest rookie crop in awhile, at least at the very top. Barzal has a decent shot of competing for it. It's not like Hischier, Patrick and Keller are world's apart. The rookie who wins the Calder this year might not even be as good as the guys who place 7th or 8th last year.

7th and 8th in Calder voting were Aho and Tkachuk, both of which are already being outscored this year by multiple rookies.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I particularly liked this one:



7th and 8th in Calder voting were Aho and Tkachuk, both of which are already being outscored this year by multiple rookies.

Go to the Barzal prospects thread. It's a doozy with a lot of hot takes like these.

 

[LordNeverLose]

I think Barzal is legitimately better than Tavares

Not yet. He's probably a better offensive player already but JT has really developed a nice defensive game and is much better along the boards.

Barzal has the potential to pass him though if he continues to improve

 

[BrodieOnTheCorner]

There were quite a few actually, ironically all in the Barzal thread. Since you asked here for your review.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135888699/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135893019/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135885413/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/137573215/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/138232099/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/139385163/

I mean some of those are from september... i don’t think any rational leafs fan would say this is a weak draft class now

 

[LordNeverLose]

There were quite a few actually, ironically all in the Barzal thread. Since you asked here for your review.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135888699/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135893019/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/135885413/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/137573215/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/138232099/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/139385163/

For those of you who don't want to go to the effort of clicking these links, here they all in all their glory

There are just too many prospects much better than Barzal coming into the league every year. He would be a long shot to win the Calder.

What do you predict his point totals to be? I think he's going to be around 35-40 points if he plays the full season with the Islanders, which is a good year but not enough to win a Calder.

This is the weakest rookie crop in awhile, at least at the very top. Barzal has a decent shot of competing for it. It's not like Hischier, Patrick and Keller are world's apart. The rookie who wins the Calder this year might not even be as good as the guys who place 7th or 8th last year.

I very much doubt any rookie this season is crossing 60 points like Laine, Matthews, Marner or Nylander. It's not something that happens often.

Eichel couldn't even do it and he's a tier above any rookie entering this season whether it's D+1 or above.

Only rookie with an outside shot at crossing 60 is Dylan Strome.

5 assists today. The cant finish comments are looking to be true. Put him beside good goal scorers and he looks good, because he doesnt have to do the scoring part.

He isnt close to Marner's level as a player, but still is pretty good

Looks comparable to MPS. Barzal has turned into a PP specialist. Nothing more at this point.

Just like the rest of his team mates, he cant play any defence. He makes Bozak look good defensively. This run and gun offense is boosting up his numbers. Bailey is also carrying him to a decent degree. Nice of Bailey to feed him easy goals(its pretty obvious Bailey is the star of that line)
Barzal is a solid young player. He isnt on Marner's level, not even close but still could be an offense only 2nd line C.
Marner is a much better player who is already a 1st line winger, and produced similar numbers one year younger last season, and has a better 2 way game.
Marner is easily the better player, but Barzal is a good talent as well.

Pretty sure @stickty111 is just a troll but otherwise he should be hiding under a rock right now

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I mean some of those are from september... i don’t think any rational leafs fan would say this is a weak draft class now

I think you will find some posts very recent still downplaying Boeser's goal totals or Barzal's production. They won't be hard to spot. Just keep an eye on them, you can trust me on that.

 

[boredmale]

I think having 2 elite centers is what that team has to build around for any success. Who is left if you let JT go ?

Offhand chance Beauvillier could turn out to be a good #2 center

Another option might be go out and sign somebody with the money you don't use on Tavares(Stastny? Thornton?, etc)

 

[93LEAFS]

For those of you who don't want to go to the effort of clicking these links, here they all in all their glory









Pretty sure @stickty111 is just a troll but otherwise he should be hiding under a rock right now

Barzal and Boeser proved me wrong, I can live with that. But, I don't think anyone was expecting them to have seasons along this line. Long-term how they stack up against Matthews, Laine, Marner, Nylander, Werenski, Tkachuk, Provorov, and Aho will be interesting. Its not like those guys aren't having strong years, the only one with notable regression is Werenski. Not all have taken steps forward though.

Edit: I also forgot Matt Murray, who has had a down year but has bounced back recently.

 

[luki here]

I mean some of those are from september... i don’t think any rational leafs fan would say this is a weak draft class now

I think that is exactly the point. The non-rational fans have been coming out in force against Barzal for years. Now they are strangely missing from his threads...

 

[135ace]

Barzal and Boeser proved me wrong, I can live with that. But, I don't think anyone was expecting them to have seasons along this line. Long-term how they stack up against Matthews, Laine, Marner, Nylander, Werenski, Tkachuk, Provorov, and Aho will be interesting. Its not like those guys aren't having strong years, the only one with notable regression is Werenski. Not all have taken steps forward though.

Edit: I also forgot Matt Murray, who has had a down year but has bounced back recently.

This years class is plenty deep so asking how guys will stack up long term is silly without considering that guys like Hischier and Keller are only going to improve. If you only look at ES scoring both Nico and Clayton are having better seasons than Marner/Nylander had last season. And long term McAvoy/Sergachev could end up being better than Provorov/Werenski.

If you want to break it up into tiers I'd take Matthews over Barzal, but not by much. Then I'd take Boeser/Hischier/Keller over Laine/Marner/Nylander any day of the week. McAvoy/Sergachev vs Provorov/Werenski is tough and can probably go either way. As for your leftovers (Aho/Tkachuk) I'd take Debrincatt/Heinen/Bratt/Conner/Gourde and the other 5+ solid rookies we have over them in a second.

 

[Konk]

Not yet. He's probably a better offensive player already but JT has really developed a nice defensive game and is much better along the boards.

Barzal has the potential to pass him though if he continues to improve

JT developed his defensive game last year, but he's been back to playing pretty terrible and lazy about it again this year. Barzal really has been better all-around this year.

 

[LordNeverLose]

JT developed his defensive game last year, but he's been back to playing pretty terrible and lazy about it again this year. Barzal really has been better all-around this year.

First part of the season I thought JT was just as good defensively as he was last season. Past 2 months or so though his defense has taken a nosedive.

I still take JT over Barzal if I'm playing a game tomorrow, although that could change in the relatively near future.

Edit: And I for sure think Barzal has had the better season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's a better player.

 

[SI90]

Barzal and Boeser proved me wrong, I can live with that. But, I don't think anyone was expecting them to have seasons along this line. Long-term how they stack up against Matthews, Laine, Marner, Nylander, Werenski, Tkachuk, Provorov, and Aho will be interesting. Its not like those guys aren't having strong years, the only one with notable regression is Werenski. Not all have taken steps forward though.

Edit: I also forgot Matt Murray, who has had a down year but has bounced back recently.

This is fair. I’d be lying if I said I expected Barzal to have this great of a season. I would have been thrilled with 45-50 pts. Also, Matthews had a 40 goal rookie season so it was easy to think that’s wouldn’t have another rookie have as impressive a season for a while.

 

[93LEAFS]

This years class is plenty deep so asking how guys will stack up long term is silly without considering that guys like Hischier and Keller are only going to improve. If you only look at ES scoring both Nico and Clayton are having better seasons than Marner/Nylander had last season. And long term McAvoy/Sergachev could end up being better than Provorov/Werenski.

If you want to break it up into tiers I'd take Matthews over Barzal, but not by much. Then I'd take Boeser/Hischier/Keller over Laine/Marner/Matthews any day of the week. McAvoy/Sergachev vs Provorov/Werenski is tough and can probably go either way. As for your leftovers (Aho/Tkachuk) I'd take Debrincatt/Heinen/Bratt/Conner/Gourde and the other 5+ solid rookies we have over them in a second.

I think you would be insane to take Boeser, Hischier, and Keller over Laine, Marner, Matthews, although, I think you meant to put Nylander there. I think I'd take Aho, Tkachuk, and Brayden Point over any group of 3 from the remainders listed.

 

[135ace]

I think you would be insane to take Boeser, Hischier, and Keller over Laine, Marner, Matthews, although, I think you meant to put Nylander there. I think I'd take Aho, Tkachuk, and Brayden Point over any group of 3 from the remainders listed.

Yes, I meant Nylander/Marner/Laine. And I agree with you on Aho/Tkachuk/Point over 3, but we have like 10 guys that are close enough to them.

Anyway my point is you're severely underrating Nico/Clayton. They're 2 of the youngest guys in the league, playing 1C, and putting up great numbers at ES while being undersized/physically immature. To put their seasons into perspective they're severely outperforming guys like Stamkos/Tavares/Draisaitl/Seguin/Barkov etc.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Yes, I meant Nylander/Marner/Laine. And I agree with you on Aho/Tkachuk/Point over 3, but we have like 10 guys that are close enough to them.

I think the depth of this year's calder draft is stronger. The 10th highest scoring rookie this season Bratt is on a 48 pt pace. Tkachuk was the 6th highest scoring rookie with 48 pts last season.

Also Barzal already has 62 pts this season. He's going to surpass Matthew's 69 pts set last year with games in hand.

Boeser with 27 goals in 54 games for a 41 goal prorate over 82 games is very comparable to Laine and Matthews goal pace last season. So you have a lot of quality up top too.

There are also surprises as in Kerfoot, Heinen and Gourde with terrific rookie campaigns. And one would be remissed if they didn't mention McAvoy and Butcher. Earlier this season Keller and Bratt too.

Its a deep draft class when Patrick, Jost, Strome, Chabot some of the bigger names have not made impacts yet. This has arguably been one of the more impactful rookie crops in recent memory.

 

[luki here]

Barzal has been tremendous, no question...but claiming hes better than Tavares is...yea, sorry no.

I think he has been a lot better than JT. JT isn't playing too well this season actually, even though his point totals would contest that statement.

 

[Konk]

First part of the season I thought JT was just as good defensively as he was last season. Past 2 months or so though his defense has taken a nosedive.

I still take JT over Barzal if I'm playing a game tomorrow, although that could change in the relatively near future.

Edit: And I for sure think Barzal has had the better season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's a better player.

I disagree, he was even worse at the beginning. He made a lot of real lazy, "controller disconnected" attempts at back checking. The one thing I think he's maintained throughout this year is limiting the amount of turnovers he commits. In years past, JT would over-extend himself trying to do everything on his own and often times hurt his team in doing so. This year, he has not had to do that, so he's made those plays less and less. Barzal has had issues with this from time to time, but not nearly as bad as JT at any point in his career besides this year.

JT is more refined, experienced, and plays a more obvious veteran game than Barzal. But Barzal is more explosive and dynamic offensively, more effective at creating space for his teammates, putting them in a scoring position (JT has benefitted from Barzal doing this for him often on the PP), and more involved defensively down low. He's also better at transitioning the puck from defense to offense. JT can get stuck in his own zone far too often with the rest of his team and lacks the skating ability, stick handling, and elusiveness to skate the puck out of danger like Barzal does on a regular basis.

The only thing I think JT clearly has over him at this point is goal scoring ability. You can make the argument he gets top defensive assignments, but Barzal has taken a lot of the focus away from him this year in that regard too. Barzal is quite often double and triple teamed, like JT used to be.

You're right in that just because a player has a better single season, doesn't mean he's a better player overall. But if that player is in his rookie season and the other one is in his 9th...

 

[mm11]

just to have a discussion that Barzal is better than JT warrants a huge win for the Isles. No way did the brass think Barzal could be so good so early. They found gold, now built around it...

 

[Captain Bowie]

I think you would be insane to take Boeser, Hischier, and Keller over Laine, Marner, Matthews, although, I think you meant to put Nylander there. I think I'd take Aho, Tkachuk, and Brayden Point over any group of 3 from the remainders listed.

Proud insane person here. I don't see why Marner is put in the same category as Matthews and Laine.

 

[93LEAFS]

Proud insane person here. I don't see why Marner is put in the same category as Matthews and Laine.

I’d take that 3 pack of players Matthews, Marner and Laine over the other 3. So if you think it’s Marner vs Boeser, it’s actially Boeser vs Matthews and that’s a sizeable gap.

Let’s see how Boeser does as a sophomore.

 

[Captain Bowie]

I’d take that 3 pack of players Matthews, Marner and Laine over the other 3. So if you think it’s Marner vs Boeser, it’s actially Boeser vs Matthews and that’s a sizeable gap.

Let’s see how Boeser does as a sophomore.

It was not clear that you were packing them as 3 players, not individual.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Quality rookie year still does not equal quality sophomore year, so it makes no sense to say wait to what Boeser or Barzal do next season. They are good right now, and are outperforming many sophomores head to head this year. That's a more important note herem