C John Tavares (2009, 1st overall, NYI) III & IV

[AmericanDream]

....to cement a #1 pick status this year?

What do you guys see him doing at the WJC this year? That is the biggest hype machine out there, so I would say that is the place where Tavares, Cowen, and Hedman make their case for #1.

Who else sees Cowen going ahead of Hedman this draft year?

I think Tavares will go #1, Cowen will go #2, and Hedman will go#3 this year. I see a big WJC out of Cowen and Tavares to justify this.

thoughts?

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[vippe]

I dont think Cowen will pass Hedman this year, Hedman will have to skydive in his game for that to happen.

Tavares and Hedman will almost certainly be #1 and #2

If someone is to threaten those 2 I would say its Svensson-Pääjärvi. I think he can really developt this year.

Allthough its a longshot it could happen.

Thats my thoughts

 

[nanzenkills]

....to cement a #1 pick status this year?

What do you guys see him doing at the WJC this year? That is the biggest hype machine out there, so I would say that is the place where Tavares, Cowen, and Hedman make their case for #1.

Who else sees Cowen going ahead of Hedman this draft year?

I think Tavares will go #1, Cowen will go #2, and Hedman will go#3 this year. I see a big WJC out of Cowen and Tavares to justify this.

thoughts?

It will take more than just a big WJC for Tavares and Cowen to surpass Hedman as #1 in the scouts' eyes. They will have to play well and continue to develop on their great potential all year long, and Hedman would have to perform more poorly than Tavares and Cowen over the course of the year for him to drop.

Hedman played well and was selected to the tournament All-Star team at last year's WJC, so he's already set the bar pretty high. I would still probably take Tavares ahead of him right now, but I don't think that it's extremely likely that he drops below Cowan.

 

[hfboardsuser]

Here's what I said in Part I of my 2009 Preview:

"If Tavares can return to the ice focused and ready to play 100% every single shift- and with the necessary rest time required to do so- he could still have a season unseen in junior hockey in a long, long time. It may not be 200 points, but an 80-goal season would be a sight to behold and would shoot him right back up to #1."

Edit: For context's sake, (I believe) only two others have scored 80 goals in one OHL year: Peter Lee (81) and Ernie Godden (87).

 

[AmericanDream]

It will take more than just a big WJC for Tavares and Cowen to surpass Hedman as #1 in the scouts' eyes. They will have to play well and continue to develop on their great potential all year long, and Hedman would have to perform more poorly than Tavares and Cowen over the course of the year for him to drop.

Hedman played well and was selected to the tournament All-Star team at last year's WJC, so he's already set the bar pretty high. I would still probably take Tavares ahead of him right now, but I don't think that it's extremely likely that he drops below Cowan.

ofcourse a full season of stellar play is needed, but my point is that the WJC does hype players through the roof, and elevates them past others if they have an awesome tournament. If Tavares and Cowen have great years, but have a phenomenal WJC, is it really unlikely that they both cant "vault" over Hedman?

 

[nanzenkills]

ofcourse a full season of stellar play is needed, but my point is that the WJC does hype players through the roof, and elevates them past others if they have an awesome tournament. If Tavares and Cowen have great years, but have a phenomenal WJC, is it really unlikely that they both cant "vault" over Hedman?

It depends also on how Hedman plays. If he plays as well as or better than them, he'll probably stay ahead of them.

 

[NativeHockey77*]

I think alot of scouts when it comes to JT are like "HE DIDNT SCORE 90 LIKE HE SAID!!! LETS PICK ANOTHER GUY! THIS GUY IS BUSTO WRITTEN ALL OVER HIM!!! LOOK HE ONLY GOT 2 POINTS PER GAME AS 17 YEAR OLD~"


but remember Crosbys draft there was more than 1 scout that said if they could, theyd pick Kessel over Crosby?



JT gets 2 points per game before his draft year and ppl think he goin down hill. This year he didnt HAVE to score 90 goals, but HE DID have to round out his game. Which he did, and this is the year he can score 100 goals he will get. but id take JT 1st overall, skating woes or not...Mike Bossy wasnt a great skater nor was Brett Hull....go figure..

 

[AmericanDream]

It depends also on how Hedman plays. If he plays as well as or better than them, he'll probably stay ahead of them.

that is true, but even if Hedman just plays good, the gap between all 3 is very slim that Hedman could fall to #3.

 

[nanzenkills]

that is true, but even if Hedman just plays good, the gap between all 3 is very slim that Hedman could fall to #3.

Right now, the gap between Hedman and Tavares is much slimmer than the gap between both of them and Cowen. If Hedman plays as well as Tavares and Cowen this year, there's very little chance that he drops below #2.

 

[aegwillnotwinthecup*]

Tavares spent the better part of last season filling the "holes" in his game. He vastly improved his playmaking ability as well as becoming much more responsible in his own end. His point production suffered, ever so slightly, but it was worth it in the long run. The Tavares I see today is a much more well rounded forward, but still every bit as offensively dangerous.

I think, for JT to cement the number one spot, he just has to rack up the points. He needs to keep working on his skating, obviously, but I believe his coaches will allow him to let loose.

I can see the kid breaking 80 goals, 150 points easily. If he does that, he'll be taken over Hedman, no questions asked.

 

[JEI]

Points points and more points.

Both at the WJ and OHL.

 

[AmericanDream]

Right now, the gap between Hedman and Tavares is much slimmer than the gap between both of them and Cowen. If Hedman plays as well as Tavares and Cowen this year, there's very little chance that he drops below #2.

we shall see how it plays out, all 3 are huge talents, I think anyone drafting in the top 5 will be getting a "franchise TYPE" player. Not claiming all 5 will be franchise players, but the top 5 should be very very impressive this year, might be comparable to 03.

 

[DanStewart]

First, Tavares will need to show he can continue to produce offence without Brett McLean on his wing and then also have a competative WJC. I have no doubt he will do both.

Scouts, Media and other NHL types who are watching this kid seem to forget that JT has been stretched to the max the past three or four years which has to take its toll on his energy level. He has been balancing high school, various weekly media apperances and requests, Oshawa's OHL hockey schedual, annual international hockey tournaments and who knows what else in his life. No other prospect has had to deal with so much pressure in the past few years. Look at how JT underpreformed in last years OHL playoffs although the fact that he still dragged his butt out there for his team has to show us something.

Tavares is a great talent and their is no doubt about that.

 

[Canuck71*]

This is the year were Tavares has to impress the scouts in every aspect of the game, and it just so happens that Tavares isn't going to have any strong players playing on his side in Oshawa this year. Oshawa's roster doesn't look strong at all this year and if Tavares can still manage to produce and make the other players around him better under these circumstances I think he will have a strong shot at #1.

Aside from that I have never really been impressed by Tavares when I have had the opportunity to see him live. Hopefully he puts on a show this year.

 

[therealdeal]

If he leads Team Canada to gold and gets more than 70 goals and an assist per game, you'd have to be crazy not to take him 1st overall.

 

[VanW27]

He doesnt have to do anything. A Franchise forward is so much sexier then a elite d-man. Even if scouts believe Hedman will be the better of the 2 Taveras will make a bigger impact right away as a forward and with the hype JT has had for the last three+ years any team would be crucified by their fans if they took Hedman.

In the Last 12 years only one d-man went first overall, the fact is its a lot easier to sell a Forward who can come in and put up points right away then it is a d-man.

 

[Ten]

IMHO I think winning is the most important thing. Be it U20's, OHL Playoffs, maybe even a Memorial Cup. If he shows he can step it up and lead teams when it matters, I think that will be enough.

Scouts already know he can score seemingly at will.

 

[Hyack57]

What does Tavares have to do...?

A little more like Crosby and a lot less like Lindros.

Eat some humble pie and not worry about the draft but on improving his overall game.

Be a team leader.

 

[VanW27]

What does Tavares have to do...?

A little more like Crosby and a lot less like Lindros.

Eat some humble pie and not worry about the draft but on improving his overall game.

Be a team leader.

Well Lindors was taken 1st overall and was well on his way to becoming one of the greatest players of all time before the concussions came a knockin

 

[Hyack57]

Well Lindors was taken 1st overall and was well on his way to becoming one of the greatest players of all time before the concussions came a knockin

Not talking about talent here my friend. It's all about character and attitude.

And no, Lindros was not on his way to "becoming one of the greatest players of all time". Wow...
Those sorts of statements are reserved for the Gretzky's, Lemiuex's, Orr's, Bourque's, etc.
Not a prima donna who refuses to play for his drafted team.

 

[nanzenkills]

He doesnt have to do anything. A Franchise forward is so much sexier then a elite d-man. Even if scouts believe Hedman will be the better of the 2 Taveras will make a bigger impact right away as a forward and with the hype JT has had for the last three+ years any team would be crucified by their fans if they took Hedman.

In the Last 12 years only one d-man went first overall, the fact is its a lot easier to sell a Forward who can come in and put up points right away then it is a d-man.

NHL teams don't care about fan reaction when they make or trade picks. They do what they feel will help their team the most. They take who they feel is the best player available, or they make a trade that they feel improves the team more than the draft pick would. How the fans initially feel about these moves is the least of their concerns. In the end, making "sexy" draft picks is not what makes fans happy. Winning is what makes fans happy.

If only one D-man went first overall in the past 12 years, it was because the other teams picking first overall felt that there was at least one forward better in the draft than the top defenseman in that draft. Nothing more, nothing less. Marketability does not represent a significant factor in how teams make their picks.

By your logic on Tavares' predraft hype the past few years and him not having "to do anything" this year, Angelo Esposito would have gone first overall in 2007.

 

[Stamvarhall*]

I think both are a tad overrated.

 

[Poignant Discussion*]

....to cement a #1 pick status this year?

What do you guys see him doing at the WJC this year? That is the biggest hype machine out there, so I would say that is the place where Tavares, Cowen, and Hedman make their case for #1.

Who else sees Cowen going ahead of Hedman this draft year?

I think Tavares will go #1, Cowen will go #2, and Hedman will go#3 this year. I see a big WJC out of Cowen and Tavares to justify this.

thoughts?

He needs to play like a MVP for the London Knights (who is he about to be traded to)

 

[AlMo]

If Tavares scores 60 goals this season, leads the Gens into the playoffs and puts up good playoff numbers he goes #1 without a problem.

IMO, I think Tavares goes #1 no matter what. I see the Leafs, Isles, Thrashers or Kings getting that #1 pick and I don't see any of them passing up on the franchise forward. The Leafs, Kings and Thrashers have recently drafted highly touted dmen and the Isles have no other than Okposo to build around up front. The Isles have so little firepower that they would not pass up on a guy that can bring people back to the arena and create some excitement.

 

[Big Phil]

Edit: For context's sake, (I believe) only two others have scored 80 goals in one OHL year: Peter Lee (81) and Ernie Godden (87).

That is correct. Only Lee made the NHL though. How in the world Godden didnt even make it by accident is beyond me. But if I remember correctly they were both 19-20 at that time. Tavares is in his draft year. I still think as of now he's #1. If I were to pick them today I would have sleepless nights if I passed up on a guy who broke Gretzky's record. There is much more ceiling with him.

You know this always happens though. When we've seen someone for a while it is easy to crtique them. Lecavalier was a lock for #1 overall then a kid named Legwand comes around and all of the sudden it was not a certainty who was #1 overall. Lecavalier ended up being #1 of course and in hindsight it would have been laughable for them to take Legwand, even then I thought. Same with 2001. Spezza was around for so long that we started to pick him apart. Kovy is the fresh face and all of the sudden he's #1. So far it's kind of a wash who is better, but you wouldnt be wrong to think it's Spezza. So all I can say to Tavares fans is relax, he'll be #1 overall. This will be a trying season for him and his game will be dissected with a fine tooth comb. If it's 2008 or 2007 or 2006 Hedman is #1. But it isnt.