Confirmed with Link: Boucher: to return or not to return, that is the question

[Sensung]

A fair deal for Karlsson is likely something around $10 million a year.Looking around the league:

• Byfuglien is at $7,600,000
• Doughty is at $7,000,000
• Subban is at $9,000,000
• Burns is at $8,000,000
• Hedman is at $7,875,000

Karlsson would have to be very generous to accept less than Suubban. At the same time if he wants a lot more than $10 million per season then he is pushing it.

What do you think EK would get if he waits a year and signs as a UFA to the highest bidder?

 

[Sensung]

Doughty isn't really comparable to Karlsson's current contract, it's comparable to his previous one. Burns' contract is going till he's 40, that hit is artificially low compared to a deal signed by a 28-29 year old.

If I'm the Sens, I use the Hedman deal as my point of reference to try and keep Karlsson down. Subban's deal includes only prime years, and finishes when he's 32, A Karlsson deal would run till he's 35 or 36. Hedman's deal runs to 34 so in terms of age, it's probably closest and conveniently a very team friendly deal. Burn's deal scares me more than Subban's because you have 4 years that should have been at a discount (and based on the structure of the deal, were) The years that are same age as the final hypothetical Karlsson years are all at 10 mil per and Karlsson is the better player. Hard to argue Karlsson deserves to be paid less in actual dollars than Burns at age 32-35

Age	Burns	Subban	Karlsson?
28	N/A	11M	N/A
29	N/A	10M	10+?
30	N/A	10M	10+?
31	N/A	8M	8M+???
32	10M	8M	10+
33	10M	N/A	10+?
34	10M	N/A	10+?
35	10M	N/A	10+?
36 37 38 37	7.5M 6.5M 5M 5M	N/A N/A N/A N/A	7.5M+? N/A N/A N/A

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Based on the above, it would be hard to justify less than 10M for any year save maybe the final year. 10 mil is the bare minimum for what I expect the market will be willing to pay for Karlsson. We need to pull the conversation away from Subban and Burns if we want to get a team friendly deal with Karlsson.

10M is a steal and would represent a massive hometown discount.

Let's hope EK is feeling generous.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Doughty isn't really comparable to Karlsson's current contract, it's comparable to his previous one. Burns' contract is going till he's 40, that hit is artificially low compared to a deal signed by a 28-29 year old.

If I'm the Sens, I use the Hedman deal as my point of reference to try and keep Karlsson down. Subban's deal includes only prime years, and finishes when he's 32, A Karlsson deal would run till he's 35 or 36. Hedman's deal runs to 34 so in terms of age, it's probably closest and conveniently a very team friendly deal. Burn's deal scares me more than Subban's because you have 4 years that should have been at a discount (and based on the structure of the deal, were) The years that are same age as the final hypothetical Karlsson years are all at 10 mil per and Karlsson is the better player. Hard to argue Karlsson deserves to be paid less in actual dollars than Burns at age 32-35

Age	Burns	Subban	Karlsson?
28	N/A	11M	N/A
29	N/A	10M	10+?
30	N/A	10M	10+?
31	N/A	8M	8M+???
32	10M	8M	10+
33	10M	N/A	10+?
34	10M	N/A	10+?
35	10M	N/A	10+?
36 37 38 37	7.5M 6.5M 5M 5M	N/A N/A N/A N/A	7.5M+? N/A N/A N/A

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Based on the above, it would be hard to justify less than 10M for any year save maybe the final year. 10 mil is the bare minimum for what I expect the market will be willing to pay for Karlsson. We need to pull the conversation away from Subban and Burns if we want to get a team friendly deal with Karlsson.

Good analysis. I was just looking around the league to see what some of the other number 1 d men are getting. We know Karlsson is better than all of the players I listed so it makes sense that he would get paid more. If $10 million per year is your projected minimum what would you anticipate the range would be? What would be the maximum that he could get? Also, and more importantly what is the highest he should be paid before he is asking too much?

Karlsson is better than Doughty, Byfuglien, Burns and Hedman but I don't think the gap in talent is big enough to justify any more than a few million more per season.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

10M is a steal and would represent a massive hometown discount.

Let's hope EK is feeling generous.

Well the hard part about the open market is that there are almost always a few irrational GM's that are willing to pay way more than a player is worth. I could see Karlsson getting an offer on the open market that is arguably way higher than what he should get and that he under performs relative to the contract. Karlsson is a great talent but he is also not 20 years old. Maybe he will play until he is 40 or older but there is a high probability that his performance drops off as he reaches his mid thirties. Maybe not by a lot but enough so that if he is paid way too much that it sticks out an hurts the team.

This is a report of league maximums over the years. THE PUCK REPORT: NHL Minimum Wage & Maximum Wage By Year

A team could offer a player like Karlsson league maximum per season for multiple years but that would be a lot given his age and injury history.

 

[Micklebot]

Good analysis. I was just looking around the league to see what some of the other number 1 d men are getting. We know Karlsson is better than all of the players I listed so it makes sense that he would get paid more. If $10 million per year is your projected minimum what would you anticipate the range would be? What would be the maximum that he could get? Also, and more importantly what is the highest he should be paid before he is asking too much?

Karlsson is better than Doughty, Byfuglien, Burns and Hedman but I don't think the gap in talent is big enough to justify any more than a few million more per season.

I think based on Burns' contract, I could see Karlsson asking for 11-11.5 for the duration of his deal. I'd be pretty hesitant to go beyond 12 per.

Worth noting, I never even got into Weber's deal, who from 29 years old received/will receive 14m, 14m, 12m, 12m, 6m, 6m, 6m, 6m (and then a few more years at less beyond the term we can sign Karlsson), which is an average of 9.5. Based on that deal, Karlsson could argue he deserves closer to 14 mil for his remaining prime years. Hard to use that deal as a frame of reference, though as it was a predatory attempt to front load the deal in a way that Nsh couldn't match.

If Karlsson want's to be equal to the highest paid dman in actual dollars each year at the relative age, we'd be looking at the following deal: 14, 14, 12, 12, 10, 10, 10, 7.5, for an average of 11.1875 mil per. That might be a good estimate as to where he lands give or take half a mil per year.

 

[BonkTastic]

Don't you think that it's in EK65s best interests, to have none of these "behind the door talks" that neither you or I can prove, just suspect, happen, until someone "set's the market" and becomes a more leverageable (if that's a word) comparable this summer?

For Example, John Carlson is set to become an UFA this July first.

If you are EK65s agent, why would you talk now "behind the door" and perhaps get low-balled, when you can wait to see if Carlson sets a new "comparable" to use in extension negotiations.

Sure, have some feeling each other talks, nothing official, just ballpark expectations perhaps...... but waiting to see where some UFAs land this summer would probably work in EKs favour, and strengthen his position.

Honestly, what John Carlson gets is entirely irrelevant to Erik Karlsson's next deal, and to suggest that Karlsson's camp cares in the slightest what John Carlson gets this summer is to suggest that they are vastly under-selling Karlsson's value.

If anything, it's in John Carlson's best interest to wait until Erik Karlsson signs somewhere, since it will be Karlsson's new contract that sets the bar for defencemen, not vice versa.

I'd even go so far as to say that if Karlsson's agents even bring up John Carlson in negotiatioms at all, that's a huge win for us, because it means that they are willing to consider John Carlsson as a contract comparable, which is laughable to the point of ludicrousy, and any self-respecting agent should be fired for short-selling their client so severely.

Karlsson is going to be the highest paid defenceman in the league. It's not like this is a contract negotiation for a pedestrian 2nd line winger with dozens of comparibles across the league.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I think based on Burns' contract, I could see Karlsson asking for 11-11.5 for the duration of his deal. I'd be pretty hesitant to go beyond 12 per.

Worth noting, I never even got into Weber's deal, who from 29 years old received/will receive 14m, 14m, 12m, 12m, 6m, 6m, 6m, 6m (and then a few more years at less beyond the term we can sign Karlsson), which is an average of 9.5. Based on that deal, Karlsson could argue he deserves closer to 14 mil for his remaining prime years. Hard to use that deal as a frame of reference, though as it was a predatory attempt to front load the deal in a way that Nsh couldn't match.

If Karlsson want's to be equal to the highest paid dman in actual dollars each year at the relative age, we'd be looking at the following deal: 14, 14, 12, 12, 10, 10, 10, 7.5, for an average of 11.1875 mil per. That might be a good estimate as to where he lands give or take half a mil per year.

Yeah I think $12 million per is a good cut off point. Past that, given his age and injury history I would be nervous as to whether he could live up to the contract over time. I don't know all the nuances and constraints surrounding contract structures but I do think that the Sens should look for a more moderate cap hit if they can. Whether they offer signing bonuses per year or some kind of variable compensation based on performance that might work best.

I like the idea of variable performance based compensation for players but it does create a challenge of incentivizing selfish play.

Karlsson at $11,187,500 cap hit seems fair and reasonable. Even the suggested tier structure of compensation works because Karlsson will likely perform better in his first few seasons.

I do think there are questions worth asking and they are difficult to answer: What does a player need to bring to the table to be worthy of getting paid $14 million per season? What percent is based on historical point production? What percent is based on projected point production? What is 1 point worth in player compensation? What is the difference in value of different kinds of points (pp, pk, even, game winning, OT) and how should that be reflected in compensation? What intangible characteristics are of value and how can they be quantified and what value do they have to salary compensation?

Additionally, what kind of revenue can be expected from a player (merchandise sales and variation in attendance)? How does is the expected revenue reflected in compensation?

 

[Micklebot]

I like the idea of variable performance based compensation for players but it does create a challenge of incentivizing selfish play.

CBA only allows for these in ELC and contracts after major injuries I believe (like Oduya got)

 

[RAFI BOMB]

CBA only allows for these in ELC and contracts after major injuries I believe (like Oduya got)

What is the deal with Ryan O'Reilly's contract then?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

If Crawford is taking over 5-on-5 and preparation doesn't that mean that we will be playing his system or style instead? Also doesn't it somewhat imply that Crawford is the head coach and Boucher got demoted to working the special teams?

 

[Micklebot]

What is the deal with Ryan O'Reilly's contract then?

He got signing bonuses, not performance bonuses.

 

[aragorn]

EK is the best offensive defenceman in the league but if you want to bring down the cost for him, I think they will have to focus on his defensive liabilities. Of course, they will need to be very careful not to pursue that to aggressively & not piss him off too much. What is more important to EK, winning a cup, staying in Ottawa or signing a contract that will set his family up financially for the rest of their lives?

It will be a very fine line to get him to sign for under $12 mil IMO but you never know exactly what he might want or what it will take for him to stay. We also don't know what EM's final number is or how much he will be willing to pay & whether he will meet EK's demands. Let's not forget that he would not meet Alfredsson's demands & he left. Hard to know what will happen & what is the best course of action for this franchise too, maybe not re-signing him is better overall, who knows?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

EK is the best offensive defenceman in the league but if you want to bring down the cost for him, I think they will have to focus on his defensive liabilities. Of course, they will need to be very careful not to pursue that to aggressively & not piss him off too much. What is more important to EK, winning a cup, staying in Ottawa or signing a contract that will set his family up financially for the rest of their lives?

It will be a very fine line to get him to sign for under $12 mil IMO but you never know exactly what he might want or what it will take for him to stay. We also don't know what EM's final number is or how much he will be willing to pay & whether he will meet EK's demands. Let's not forget that he would not meet Alfredsson's demands & he left. Hard to know what will happen & what is the best course of action for this franchise too, maybe not re-signing him is better overall, who knows?

I think trying to lower Karlsson's expectations based on any kind of statistical argument is definitely barking up the wrong tree. He has so many pluses near the top of the league regarding possession and low turn over rates and high zone exit rates, take aways vs give aways .... I don't think they should be negotiating with him and trying to say where he lacks anywhere to try to reduce his price. If they offer him 10+ , they can get close if Karlsson wants to stay. If not it likely doesn't matter what they offer him.

 

[aragorn]

I think trying to lower Karlsson's expectations based on any kind of statistical argument is definitely barking up the wrong tree. He has so many pluses near the top of the league regarding possession and low turn over rates and high zone exit rates, take aways vs give aways .... I don't think they should be negotiating with him and trying to say where he lacks anywhere to try to reduce his price. If they offer him 10+ , they can get close if Karlsson wants to stay. If not it likely doesn't matter what they offer him.

Good point. If one side has $10 mil as their number & the other side has $12 mil as their number which side would be willing to go to $11 mil? It's quite likely EM will have to move & what do you think are the chances he does that? 50/50? It's going to be interesting to see what happens with these negotiations.

 

[BonkTastic]

The negotiations with Karlsson should basically be:

"This is what we can afford. We know you are a generational defenceman so we aren't going to insult you by suggesting otherwise. If you want to stay, we'd love to have you here for your entire career, but we can only pay (x amount) because anything higher than that presents too much financial strain for our roster and organization. We hope that you enjoy playing for and living in Ottawa, and we understand that you could probably get more on the open market as a UFA, but also hope that you have the same passion we do for winning, and want to be the face of the organization as we turn this ship around, and hope that this offer can help make you and your family happy in a wonderful city that loves you and wants you here for as long as you'll stay. If this amount isn't enough, we would appreciate you letting us know sooner than later, because we are going to need to start preparing for life once you are gone and should start talking to GMs sooner than later"

 

[Karl Prime]

My big fear is that we get off to a bad start (say Anderson doesn't improve) and Boucher gets canned and we fall back into the same predicament we were in with MacLean/Cameron (except there will be no miracle run to the playoffs). I hope if EK is re-signed that Guy is smart enough to understand that the team needs to play more up-tempo and attack-minded like the teams remaining in the playoffs do.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Good point. If one side has $10 mil as their number & the other side has $12 mil as their number which side would be willing to go to $11 mil? It's quite likely EM will have to move & what do you think are the chances he does that? 50/50? It's going to be interesting to see what happens with these negotiations.

What if Ek is willing to go to 11 and Sens are willing to go to 10.5 do you think either side would walk away at that pt? I think if Karlsson wants to stay and the Sens offer 10 and they are negotiating in good faith they will make a deal. If Karlsson wants to leave ... he's gone

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

My big fear is that we get off to a bad start (say Anderson doesn't improve) and Boucher gets canned and we fall back into the same predicament we were in with MacLean/Cameron (except there will be no miracle run to the playoffs). I hope if EK is re-signed that Guy is smart enough to understand that the team needs to play more up-tempo and attack-minded like the teams remaining in the playoffs do.

Trading Brassard was at least a small step towards rebuilding. I don't know what the next step(s) will be..but I think there was a slight shift from win now and bring on the 3-5 year plan. Rebuild was mentioned by Melnyk... I think Dorion mentioned retool and sometimes you have to take 2 steps back to take 1 forward.. We don't know what to expect there. Evaluating the coaching staff within a rebuild/retool won't be as simple as wins and losses.

 

[Samsquanch]

If Crawford is taking over 5-on-5 and preparation doesn't that mean that we will be playing his system or style instead? Also doesn't it somewhat imply that Crawford is the head coach and Boucher got demoted to working the special teams?

Is this actually a thing? Where did this come from? Im intrigued to say the least.


Btw there is not a whole lot of Boucher talk in this thread for the last 2 pages.. Just sayin it would be nice if we could take the Karlsson and Dorion talk somewhere else...

Edit: went back a few more pages and got my own answer.

 

[Sensung]

The negotiations with Karlsson should basically be:

"This is what we can afford. We know you are a generational defenceman so we aren't going to insult you by suggesting otherwise. If you want to stay, we'd love to have you here for your entire career, but we can only pay (x amount) because anything higher than that presents too much financial strain for our roster and organization. We hope that you enjoy playing for and living in Ottawa, and we understand that you could probably get more on the open market as a UFA, but also hope that you have the same passion we do for winning, and want to be the face of the organization as we turn this ship around, and hope that this offer can help make you and your family happy in a wonderful city that loves you and wants you here for as long as you'll stay. If this amount isn't enough, we would appreciate you letting us know sooner than later, because we are going to need to start preparing for life once you are gone and should start talking to GMs sooner than later"

In general I like this approach.

The question when trying to implement it becomes; do we put our absolute best offer on the table to start?

If you are going with "this is what we can afford", then how do you increase if Karlsson comes back with a counter that is higher?

I think your position works best after the preliminary rounds of talks when you draw your line in the sand.

Hopefully the number the Sens come up with is in within 1M of EK's bottom line and he doesn't cave to agent/PA pressure to raise the bar/stick it to Eugene.

My gut tells me they've learned from Alfie/#Melnykout how negative the reaction will be to an EK trade.

I just hope EK is willing to take less than market value to stay.

 

[aragorn]

Trading Brassard was at least a small step towards rebuilding. I don't know what the next step(s) will be..but I think there was a slight shift from win now and bring on the 3-5 year plan. Rebuild was mentioned by Melnyk... I think Dorion mentioned retool and sometimes you have to take 2 steps back to take 1 forward.. We don't know what to expect there. Evaluating the coaching staff within a rebuild/retool won't be as simple as wins and losses.

That is going to be very difficult for Boucher don't you think? On the one hand they want to start inserting more youth in the lineup & while it's possible that younger players bring more excitement & passion to the lineup they also tend to make a lot more mistakes & cause goals against. GB needs to win more games to keep his job while at the same time play the younger players more who could cost him his job. Catch 22. They want to rebuild while at the same time win more games & improve their record. It's possible but is it practical or probable? Probably not.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That is going to be very difficult for Boucher don't you think? On the one hand they want to start inserting more youth in the lineup & while it's possible that younger players bring more excitement & passion to the lineup they also tend to make a lot more mistakes & cause goals against. GB needs to win more games to keep his job while at the same time play the younger players more who could cost him his job. Catch 22. They want to rebuild while at the same time win more games & improve their record. It's possible but is it practical or probable? Probably not.

Exactly. We need to see what other moves are made .. Are they going to push more youth into the lineup? Will they try to improve the roster in a couple of key areas with NHL help? Trading Brassard makes me wonder .. because obviously he could help us win now more than the late first and the goalie prospect... that's a move for the future , while shedding some $ but not huge for a 2nd line C. Assuming they move more vets for futures or make more $ moves in buyouts creating space for younger players or ??? hockey trades ,,I don't know... Assuming EK stays , the PP should still be adequately filled for Boucher to get good results. If they trade , Hoffman lets say for a young roster player and a pick/prospect . .. Its a move for the future .. Smith for a 5th round pick ,, a move to save $ I have no idea what the plan is .. and who all is planned to me moved.. and what they expect the roster and results to be when they are done with the moves over the summer. I just wish the direction was clear whatever that may be.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I'm going to guess the (AAV) number for EK65, if he signs an extension with the Sens.

10.65 Million.

If anyone else wants to make a guess for fun, please feel free to do so.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

I'm going to guess the (AAV) number for EK65, if he signs an extension with the Sens.

10.65 Million.

If anyone else wants to make a guess for fun, please feel free to do so.

I say 10.66

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]