Bob Mckenzie relayed draft lottery scenerio

[Hyack57]

Although I'm a Canucks fan and obviously would love Vancouver to get the pick I think I'm rooting for Buffalo of the teams with 3 balls. The team needs a star player to bring the fans back there and with Vanek coming up as a potential sniper a Vanek/Crosby/Paille line would be deadly with Stafford/Roy/MacArthur on the 2nd line. If they don't get to nab Crosby at leasI hope they nab Jack Johnson for some good D help.

 

[DarthSather99]

I'm not trying to be contentious, but I think your analysis is incorrect. You have to look at the ratio of three balls to two balls. A team with three balls has a 50% greater chance of winning the lottery than a team with two balls. It has a 200% greater chance of winning than a team with only one ball.

While 3 balls only give you a 1 in 16 chance of winning, it's still 50% better than only having 1 chance in 24 and 200% better than 1 chance in 48.

You must be a mobster, lawyer, politician or car mechanic. Your statictics don't make sence and I see how your trying to manipulate the numbers. Yeah, if there were ONLY 5 balls and one team got 3 and another got 2, then yeah the team with 3 would have a 50% better chance. When we are taking about winner take all with 48 TOTAL BALLS then it's 6% vs 4%. A difference of 2%. Don't try to twist the numbers around.

 

[al3x]

You must be a mobster, lawyer, politician or car mechanic. Your statictics don't make sence and I see how your trying to manipulate the numbers. Yeah, if there were ONLY 5 balls and one team got 3 and another got 2, then yeah the team with 3 would have a 50% better chance. When we are taking about winner take all with 48 TOTAL BALLS then it's 6% vs 4%. A difference of 2%. Don't try to twist the numbers around.

no, his stats are right. the difference between 4% and 6% is exactly of 50% of the first (50%x4+4=6) and the difference between 6% and 2% is of 200% (200%x2+2=6)
I guess this is the way he did it. It depends on how you understand it

 

[DarthSather99]

I understand the lottery penalty but the Playoff one is harsh to me. The isles getting penalized here (the 6th seed once and 8th seed once) is like a team being penalized for picking 5th overall in previous drafts and being penalized because they were "pretty successful" in the lottery. The isles have won nothing in the playoffs, and havent had 1 top 10 pick (which was traded) in the last 4 years. They have also had a payroll in the lower 1/3 of the league and lost money as a franchise.

Someone tell me how they have are among the teams with the least chance of winning "the crosby lottery"?

It probably isn't fair to the #6,7,8 seeds since they are border line playoff teams. The real winners of this are Colorado, Devils, Detroit,Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Ottawa that we all know would have NEVER gotten a chance this year at #1 and now they do. The thing that gets me is that these teams fans seem to complain the most.

Unfortunately you have to come up with some uncomplicated format and some teams will get hurt by this.

 

[DarthSather99]

no, his stats are right. the difference between 4% and 6% is exactly of 50% of the first (50%x4+4=6) and the difference between 6% and 2% is of 200% (200%x2+2=6)
I guess this is the way he did it. It depends on how you understand it

No, I understand what he's doing. When you look at the number 6 and 4 individually as whole numbers he is absolutely correct. We are talking about 6 PERCENT verses 4 PERCENT. The key word is PERCENT. The given numbers are already a percentage of the whole pie, he is then taking a percentage of a percentage.

So, it's 6 % out of 100% and 4% out of 100%. It's quite simple. 6% - 4% = 2%. The team with 3 balls(out of 48) has a 2% better chance than the team with 2 balls(out of 48) to win the OVERALL #1 pick.

 

[PecaFan]

Someone on the Canucks board made an excellent point. Overall, the big winners of this format,before a single ball is drawn, are the teams who would have picked 20-30th overall. With the snake format, their average draft choice becomes higher. Example, TB picking 30th and 60th, can now do no worse than 30th and 31st.

I agree, excellent point. The snaking ultimately hurts the bad teams, and helps the good teams no matter where they ultimately end up.

The worst team in the league, no matter who that was, ultimately gets less even if they actually win the lottery. They were going to be #1 and #31, now they're #1 and #60.

 

[the_gman83]

No, I understand what he's doing. When you look at the number 6 and 4 individually as whole numbers he is absolutely correct. We are talking about 6 PERCENT verses 4 PERCENT. The key word is PERCENT. The given numbers are already a percentage of the whole pie, he is then taking a percentage of a percentage.

So, it's 6 % out of 100% and 4% out of 100%. It's quite simple. 6% - 4% = 2%. The team with 3 balls(out of 48) has a 2% better chance than the team with 2 balls(out of 48) to win the OVERALL #1 pick.

With 3 balls, the chance of winning the lottery is 3/48 = 6.25%
With 2 balls, the chance of winning the lottery is 2/48 = 4.17%
With 1 ball , the chance of winning the lottery is 1/48 = 2.08%

Since 3/48 is 1.5 times greater than 2/48 (2/48 * 1.5 = 3/48), the teams with 3 balls are 1.5 times, or 50%, more likely to win the lottery than those with 2 balls.

Similarly, 3/48 is 3 times, or 200%, greater than 1/38, and 2/48 is 2 times, or 100%, greater than 1/38.

 

[Jack Canuck]

I was for everyone having the 1/30 chance before, but this will be okay. The snake ideal also will help, and I can't complain as a Vancouver fan my team should have a good chance at being in a better position than they would have been.

 

[DarthSather99]

With 3 balls, the chance of winning the lottery is 3/48 = 6.25%
With 2 balls, the chance of winning the lottery is 2/48 = 4.17%
With 1 ball , the chance of winning the lottery is 1/48 = 2.08%

Since 3/48 is 1.5 times greater than 2/48 (2/48 * 1.5 = 3/48), the teams with 3 balls are 1.5 times, or 50%, more likely to win the lottery than those with 2 balls.

Similarly, 3/48 is 3 times, or 200%, greater than 1/38, and 2/48 is 2 times, or 100%, greater than 1/38.

What part of "he is then taking a percentage of a percentage" didn't you understand? The 6 and 4 AREN'T whole numbers, they are already in percentage form. You can't take a percentage of a percentage because then it doesn't represent the whole (48 balls).

 

[I Am Ziggy Palffy]

in the drawing, there will be 16 balls belonging to teams with only 1 ball....32 balls belonging to teams with 2-3.....why do i get the feeling that the #1 pick might go to a team with only 1 ball? how unfair would that be?

i think the difference should be bigger...rather than being 1-3 balls per team, it ought to be 1,3,5 balls for each team....this way the chances of a team like Carolina getting a top pick would be much higher than a team like Colorado...

We're going to have teams like Col, Det in the top 6 becuase there really is not a big difference

 

[the_gman83]

What part of "he is then taking a percentage of a percentage" didn't you understand? The 6 and 4 AREN'T whole numbers, they are already in percentage form. You can't take a percentage of a percentage because then it doesn't represent the whole (48 balls).

It depends on what percentage you are talking about. Sure, any particular team with 3 balls is only about 2% more likely to win than any particular team with 2 balls, but it is 50% more likely that a team with 3 balls will win than one with 2 balls, and 200% more likely than a team with only one ball.

 

[kruezer]

in the drawing, there will be 16 balls belonging to teams with only 1 ball....32 balls belonging to teams with 2-3.....why do i get the feeling that the #1 pick might go to a team with only 1 ball? how unfair would that be?

i think the difference should be bigger...rather than being 1-3 balls per team, it ought to be 1,3,5 balls for each team....this way the chances of a team like Carolina getting a top pick would be much higher than a team like Colorado...

We're going to have teams like Col, Det in the top 6 becuase there really is not a big difference

I don't think there really could have been much better a system, obviously the rosters next fall are going to be quite different than in previous years, I think the slight weighting is the perfect way to do it. It seems nobody thinks its fair, I think that is a good sign that this is the best way to do it.

 

[Hadoop]

No team has a gross percentage advantage. This will be the most exciting lottery EVER.

Oh yeah, this will be the lottery all other lotteries will be compared to!!

 

[Hadoop]

If TSN is right, there is a 40% chance that one of those teams with only one ball will win it. Of course, each one of those teams only has a 2.2% chance individually, but in combination, they collectively have a 40% chance.

Actually (16x1) / (16x1 + 10x2 + 4x3) = 1/3 = approx. 33%


Still that means there's a 1 in 3 chance that a heck of LOT of HFBoards posters will be outraged after next Thursday! I can't wait!

 

[DarthSather99]

It depends on what percentage you are talking about. Sure, any particular team with 3 balls is only about 2% more likely to win than any particular team with 2 balls

You got it right there. We are talking about the only percentage that matters. The one that relates to the whole (48 balls).

 

[OHLArenaGuide]

What part of "he is then taking a percentage of a percentage" didn't you understand? The 6 and 4 AREN'T whole numbers, they are already in percentage form. You can't take a percentage of a percentage because then it doesn't represent the whole (48 balls).

Have you ever taken high-school math? It doesn't seem like it.

 

[no Gino]

Did anyone see that it was proposed that the first pick in the draft be purchased through auction? It was reportedly dismissed quickly, but had some support from those that felt the best thing for the NHL would be for Crosby to end up in NY or Toronto.

 

[DarthSather99]

Have you ever taken high-school math? It doesn't seem like it.

I was thinking the same thing about you except 5th grade math. I know when you have to start using a decimal it gets difficult for you.

 

[OHLArenaGuide]

I was thinking the same thing about you except 5th grade math. I know when you have to start using a decimal it gets difficult for you.

Good comeback, except I haven't demonstrated any math on this thread, whereas you've convincingly shown a complete lack of understanding of elementary percentages and math skills.

Hint: How can a company advertise their product as "200% bigger"? That's impossible, right?

Keep puzzling and eventually you might get it.

 

[Scintillating]

Numbers, schmumbers! Math, schmath! All I know is that my Habs (whom we all know Sid would love to play for), have gone to having no chance in H-E-double hockey sticks of drafting him to a 1 in 48 chance! Woo freakin' Hoo!

 

[al3x]

Hint: How can a company advertise their product as "200% bigger"? That's impossible, right?

actually it isn't. they can say their product is 200% bigger than another one and that would mean 3 times bigger (product1 = 200% x product2 + product2)

 

[MaV]

It's quite simple. 6% - 4% = 2%. The team with 3 balls(out of 48) has a 2% better chance than the team with 2 balls(out of 48) to win the OVERALL #1 pick.

FYI, 6% is 2 percentage units more than 4%. That or 50% more. Not 2% more. HTH.

 

[Flukeshot]

I don't see why there is so much complaining. If you are a fan of a team that did poorly the last few seasons they've already been compensated in past drafts for their suckage. It is tough to tell what teams would have finished 26th to 30th in 2004-05 and had a chance at 1st overall pick.

There is also way too much focus on just the 1st overall pick. This systems gets really interesting the further into the lottery you go. If a 3 ball team, NYR, BUF, PIT or CBS gets the first pick, then 2nd pick is now out of 45 available balls.

Seeing as the 2 ball teams collectively have more balls then the 1 and 3 teams it is more likely they will end up with higher picks. Over the 1-30 lottery it should be relatively even once its done. Then the "zig-zag" draft order helps even things out. Think of it as if it were your Hockey Pool. If you didn't get a top 10 pick you'd probably prefer having 30th and 31st overall to 11th and 49th.

 

[DarthSather99]

Good comeback, except I haven't demonstrated any math on this thread, whereas you've convincingly shown a complete lack of understanding of elementary percentages and math skills.

Hint: How can a company advertise their product as "200% bigger"? That's impossible, right?

Keep puzzling and eventually you might get it.

Question: How can someone have a 200% chance of winning something, which is what we are talking about.


I've got news for you. If you take a test and they ask you the difference between 6% and 4% and answer with 150% then that's your choice. Hint: In doing word problems the word "difference" means subtraction. Taking the percentage of two individual numbers is a ratio. Taking a ratio of two different percentages makes absolutely no sense and if you want to believe it does then fine, we agree to disagree.

 

[thomasincanada]

Taking a ratio of two different percentages makes absolutely no sense and if you want to believe it does then fine, we agree to disagree.

Nothing personal, but your math skills are lacking. There is nothing wrong with using ratios to describe percentages relative to one another. It's quite common actually.

Let me ask you this. If Person A buys three tickets to a lottery and Person B buys two, do you say person A has a .00000001 percent better chance of winning the lottery or that they have a 50 percent better chance of winning?

I bet most people would say they have a 50 percent better chance of winning and they would be right. The key is that the word better makes it relative. He's not talking about difference, just relative percentages.

Tom