OT: Blues Forum Lounge (Home of All Things OT) - Part XIII

[Mike Liut]

Yeah, might give Jose Martinez an opportunity for playing time. But that makes us thin in the outfield.

Waino might be the pitcher I am most worried about and I think Matheny is going to give him every last chance in the rotation.

Cards have OF’s coming out of their wazzoos. If Carp isnt ready, and Martinez and Voit to have to play 1B, id love to give Adolis Garcia a look as the 4th OF. That dude could start right now, theres just too many guys ahead of him.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

I didn't know where else to post this but @PiggySmalls, your new avatar made my whole weekend.

 

[PiggySmalls]

I didn't know where else to post this but @PiggySmalls, your new avatar made my whole weekend.

Thank you. I found it on Deviant Art. Artist goes by the name mewmeema1.

 

[Majorityof1]

Thank you. I found it on Deviant Art. Artist goes by the name mewmeema1.

I concur with mw2noobbuster, it is awesome. Best avi on the site.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I concur with mw2noobbuster, it is awesome. Best avi on the site.

 

[mw2noobbuster]

I've seen some of you guys post some articles from The Athletic relating to the Blues that have caught my interest. I'm thinking of purchasing a subscription, but I was wondering if it's worth it quality wise? Generally, how is the quality of the articles? Blues and other teams since I like keeping up with other teams.

 

[MissouriMook]

I've seen some of you guys post some articles from The Athletic relating to the Blues that have caught my interest. I'm thinking of purchasing a subscription, but I was wondering if it's worth it quality wise? Generally, how is the quality of the articles? Blues and other teams since I like keeping up with other teams.

Excellent. Recommend it highly. I like the articles from JR, but they probably aren't even in the Top 5 of what I like about The Athletic. A lot of great writers there for hockey and quite a few for baseball as well.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I've seen some of you guys post some articles from The Athletic relating to the Blues that have caught my interest. I'm thinking of purchasing a subscription, but I was wondering if it's worth it quality wise? Generally, how is the quality of the articles? Blues and other teams since I like keeping up with other teams.

Evan Sporer is becoming a good writer. He's had a clunker here and there but for this most part, his stuff is very interesting. I like a lot of the national writers. Especially Dom Luszczyszyn, Corey Pronman, and Justin Bourne, they have some great in-depth looks at prospects and other items. JR has gotten better in the non-game pieces. Pietrangelo's family story one was very interesting and heart tugging. His mailbag's aren't bad either. He's much more candid and open in those, although I am one of the people that disagrees with how he analyzes and sees team needs.

All in all, the Athletic is worth it's subscription fee to me, but I also read about college basketball and baseball.

 

[bluesfan94]

I read about all the sports, but I think the Athletic is very worth it and they're adding more St. Louis focused writers which is nice. You can also get a decent deal (I think 30%) off if you go through a new writer's link

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Here’s a fun probability question:

A man has 7 brown and 3 white horses. One day, the man’s 4 grandchildren come over. If the man randomly assigns a horse to each child, what is the probability that each child ends up with a brown horse?

I’ve never had a class on probability, so if anyone could answer this and help me understand the reasoning, that would be great. I have my own ideas from doing a little bit of research, but I’m not convinced that this scenario is as simple as n choose k.

It embarrassing how terrible my ability to do “east” math is when calculus is so easy for me to understand. As I always tell my students, “calculus easy; arithmetic hard”.

 

[Lord Helix]

I have a feeling I fell into the Bayesian trap.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Here’s a fun probability question:

A man has 7 brown and 3 white horses. One day, the man’s 4 grandchildren come over. If the man randomly assigns a horse to each child, what is the probability that each child ends up with a brown horse?

I’ve never had a class on probability, so if anyone could answer this and help me understand the reasoning, that would be great. I have my own ideas from doing a little bit of research, but I’m not convinced that this scenario is as simple as n choose k.

It embarrassing how terrible my ability to do “east” math is when calculus is so easy for me to understand. As I always tell my students, “calculus easy; arithmetic hard”.

This is a dependent event scenario (the odds of each successive event are dependent on the outcome of the event that precedes it).

The probability of one grandchild getting a brown horse is 7/10.

Assuming that happens, the probability for the second grandchild becomes 6/9.

Then again, for the third grandchild it becomes 5/8.

And for the fourth grandchild it is 4/7.

Multiply all those probabilities together to find the probability for the overall scenario.

7/10 x 6/9 x 5/8 x 4/7 = 840/5040 = 1/6 or 16.67%

Edit: I hope I'm not doing homework for someone.

 

[KirkOut]

Here’s a fun probability question:

A man has 7 brown and 3 white horses. One day, the man’s 4 grandchildren come over. If the man randomly assigns a horse to each child, what is the probability that each child ends up with a brown horse?

I’ve never had a class on probability, so if anyone could answer this and help me understand the reasoning, that would be great. I have my own ideas from doing a little bit of research, but I’m not convinced that this scenario is as simple as n choose k.

It embarrassing how terrible my ability to do “east” math is when calculus is so easy for me to understand. As I always tell my students, “calculus easy; arithmetic hard”.

Do the grandkids have access to spraypaint?

 

[542365]

JR just tweeted a podcast with a 30 minute interview with Ken Wilson about his life and the time spent covering the Blues. Really interesting if you have 30 minutes to spare. He’s such an articulate, intelligent guy. I could listen to him for hours.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

This is a dependent event scenario (the odds of each successive event are dependent on the outcome of the event that precedes it).

The probability of one grandchild getting a brown horse is 7/10.

Assuming that happens, the probability for the second grandchild becomes 6/9.

Then again, for the third grandchild it becomes 5/8.

And for the fourth grandchild it is 4/7.

Multiply all those probabilities together to find the probability for the overall scenario.

7/10 x 6/9 x 5/8 x 4/7 = 840/5040 = 1/6 or 16.67%

Edit: I hope I'm not doing homework for someone.

Nope, just a question that I saw a few days ago. That’s what both Helix and I thought it would be. So far, the only one that thinks otherwise is the exam.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Nope, just a question that I saw a few days ago. That’s what both Helix and I thought it would be. So far, the only one that thinks otherwise is the exam.

I seriously question the exam, then. That's a classic example for that sort of sequential probability problem.

Poker probabilities are calculated the exact same way. The probability of drawing two consecutive spades from a full shuffled deck, for example is 13/52 x 12/51 = 5.88% Hitting a runner-runner flush in Texas Holdem is 10/47 x 9/46 = 4.16%.

Perhaps the intent was to offer a different sort of problem and the wording was simply poorly chosen.

Edit: I see now your "n choose k" comment. If this was intended to be a binomial coefficient question, it should not have implied sequential assignment. Something like: "What percentage of all the possible combinations of horses and children feature the children riding only brown horses?"

 

[Lord Helix]

Perhaps the intent was to offer a different sort of problem and the wording was simply poorly chosen.

This has been a problem of mine in my maths "career." I'm sure some remember my trig post from years past...As well as when I involved the difference of integer squares being the sum of the roots in a mathematical modeling class.

After this, I became a tutor for the community college...This involved (let's be honest...doing people's homework/undermining the purpose and purity of the educational system for minimum wage) finding every error in Pearson known to man and communicating it to the professors. Basically, pure hell.

Edit 2: And yet, I do the same with Khan Academy for my children...

When your 7 year old knows Euler's identity:

 

[EastonBlues22]

For those looking for a vCash wager with good value, I recommend visiting the 2017/18 Central Division - Outright Regular Season only offering in the Sportsbook section.

Nashville pays $100 for a $139 stake, which is a +EV bet if Nashville can be expected to win the division 60% of the time or more from their current position. Given that they're currently 6 points up on Winnipeg with 15 games left and playing well, you have to figure they're a bigger favorite than that. Sportsclubstats has them at 86% to finish above Winnipeg, to give you a ballpark estimate on their current chances.

You can even see how today's games go for both teams before making the bet. Event closes tonight at approximately 11:00 pm Central.

Consider this tip a general thank you for not losing your collective **** on the Trade/FA forum this week. May the vCash gods be with you all.

 

[carter333167]

For those looking for a vCash wager with good value, I recommend visiting the 2017/18 Central Division - Outright Regular Season only offering in the Sportsbook section.

Nashville pays $100 for a $139 stake, which is a +EV bet if Nashville can be expected to win the division 60% of the time or more from their current position. Given that they're currently 6 points up on Winnipeg with 15 games left and playing well, you have to figure they're a bigger favorite than that. Sportsclubstats has them at 86% to finish above Winnipeg, to give you a ballpark estimate on their current chances.

You can even see how today's games go for both teams before making the bet. Event closes tonight at approximately 11:00 pm Central.

Consider this tip a general thank you for not losing your collective **** on the Trade/FA forum this week. May the vCash gods be with you all.

Thanks, Easton! We earned a board “good behavior” award.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I seriously question the exam, then. That's a classic example for that sort of sequential probability problem.

Poker probabilities are calculated the exact same way. The probability of drawing two consecutive spades from a full shuffled deck, for example is 13/52 x 12/51 = 5.88% Hitting a runner-runner flush in Texas Holdem is 10/47 x 9/46 = 4.16%.

Perhaps the intent was to offer a different sort of problem and the wording was simply poorly chosen.

Edit: I see now your "n choose k" comment. If this was intended to be a binomial coefficient question, it should not have implied sequential assignment. Something like: "What percentage of all the possible combinations of horses and children feature the children riding only brown horses?"

That was my thought later after watch a Harvard lecture. Calculating the probability of a full house was used as the example for a complicated n choose k, but that didn’t seem like an equivalent problem to me; but what do I know about probability?

I initially thought 1/6, but it wasn’t available as an answer. I couldn’t remember n choose k, but I thought that might have been it. Then I went home and watched the lecture, and that can’t be it unless the wording was just really poor.

And lo and behold: Pearson runs the testing site.

 

[EastonBlues22]

That was my thought later after watch a Harvard lecture. Calculating the probability of a full house was used as the example for a complicated n choose k, but that didn’t seem like an equivalent problem to me; but what do I know about probability?

I initially thought 1/6, but it wasn’t available as an answer. I couldn’t remember n choose k, but I thought that might have been it. Then I went home and watched the lecture, and that can’t be it unless the wording was just really poor.

And lo and behold: Pearson runs the testing site.

No, it's not an equivalent problem.

The probability of being dealt a natural full house pretty clearly implies a theoretical calculation of how many possible (I assume five) card deals in a pool of all possible deals would give one a full house.

The wording of the problem above implies a sequential assignment, as one would naturally do if one actually did this. Kid A gets a random horse from the pool of ones available, then Kid B gets a random one from what's left, etc. That's exactly what would happen if each kid drew a horse name from a hat, let's say.

Asking what the probability is that each child ends up with a brown horse is definitely not the same as asking how many possible horse/child combinations of all possible combinations would leave each kid with a brown horse.

 

[stl76]

I have a feeling I fell into the Bayesian trap.

My first thought was Bayes' formula.

 

[stl76]

The wording of the problem above implies a sequential assignment, as one would naturally do if one actually did this. Kid A gets a random horse from the pool of ones available, then Kid B gets a random one from what's left, etc. That's exactly what would happen if each kid drew a horse name from a hat, let's say.

Asking what the probability is that each child ends up with a brown horse is definitely not the same as asking how many possible horse/child combinations of all possible combinations would leave each kid with a brown horse.

Does it tho? Regardless the problem is worded very poorly, but I am not so sure it does.

Was (7/10)^4 a possible answer on the actual test @Vincenzo Arelliti ?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Does it tho? Regardless the problem is worded very poorly, but I am not so sure it does.

Was (7/10)^4 a possible answer on the actual test @Vincenzo Arelliti ?

Nope. That’s what I tried after 7!6!//10!3!, or 7x6x5x4//10x9x8x7.

I’m pretty sure the correct answer is 1/6.

Wouldn’t it have to be that each child chooses sequentially? Otherwise two or more kids could choose the same horse, and then no one gets to ride because they’re all being big babies about it.

Although in this case the grandfather assigns the horses, so that shouldn’t happen. Yep. It has to be sequential.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Does it tho? Regardless the problem is worded very poorly, but I am not so sure it does.

Was (7/10)^4 a possible answer on the actual test @Vincenzo Arelliti ?

Yes it does. Certainly to me, anyway.

If I told you that I had a jar of jelly beans and 15 kids, and that I was going to randomly give a jelly bean to each kid, how do you picture that happening? One at a time, right?

Does that process change if I say the jar starts with 70 red jelly beans and 30 purple ones? Not really.

Asking for the probability of each kid getting a red jelly bean only reinforces the assumption. It's exactly the same as asking what the probability is that you will draw some number of consecutive spades from a full deck, which is a classic stats example for this type of problem.

Nothing in that question indicated that the interest was in what percentage of different sets fitting the criteria (every child getting a brown horse) exist within the range of all sets.