OT: Blues Forum Lounge (Home of All Things OT) - Part XIII

[Bye Felicia]

I love Manny--he's been one of my favorite players in the league since he broke in--but I think it's highly unlikely he would sign in St. Louis.

This remains one of the best throws I have ever seen:

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Well, I don't think targeting Machado is so farfetched.

It's been clear the last few years that Mo is okay going for a bank breaking player as long age makes sense. He's gone after Price, Heyward, and Stanton the last 3 years as well as signing Fowler, so money isn't as big as a concern. I have no clue if Machado would come, but I think Mo would go for him, and go for him hard.

I kept having this feeling during the Stanton situation that if Stanton came to the Cards, that would be it for the next 2 - 3 years. But if he didn't, the Cards would immediately jump onto the Machado situation. I'd rather have Machado given the influx of outfielders the Cards have, and I generally like him more as a player.

 

[Bye Felicia]

The issue with Machado right now isn't the money--it's control. He is eligible for free agency after this year and all indications are that he 100% will test the market. Would the Cardinals offer $350M or even $400M for Machado? Maybe? But there are going to be a lot of bidders, and I would be plenty concerned that a guy who grew up in Miami would not have the Cardinals as an organization high on his priority list.

Acquiring him right now would take a crazy haul in prospects, and you'd essentially be getting a one-year rental. I can't see Mo doing it. The last two major trades he made (Holliday, Heyward) were for guys that were specifically targeted as perceived personality fits with the Cardinals organization, and obviously Heyward was a miss as far as getting the extension.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Machado is a wildcard. It's a wildcard that I could see us taking a risk on because they know opportunities to acquire that level of talent are extremely limited. All depends on the price. Hopefully you can get some assurance from him that he'd either sign or be open to it. If he's like Stanton and just says no, then don't take the risk. Make sure it's a calculated risk.

 

[bluesfan94]

Acquiring him right now would take a crazy haul in prospects, and you'd essentially be getting a one-year rental.

I don't think the first statement is true because of the second one. Everyone knows he wants to test the market, so the market will be capped. Especially because there aren't a ton of teams that are contenders that need him and have the prospects. The Dodgers have Seager/Turner, the Yankees could use a 3B I guess, the Astros have Bregman/Correa, the Indians have Ramirez/Lindor, the Orioles won't trade with the Nationals, the Red Sox have Devers/Bogaerts, the Cubs have Russell/Bryant.

 

[Bye Felicia]

I don't think the first statement is true because of the second one. Everyone knows he wants to test the market, so the market will be capped. Especially because there aren't a ton of teams that are contenders that need him and have the prospects. The Dodgers have Seager/Turner, the Yankees could use a 3B I guess, the Astros have Bregman/Correa, the Indians have Ramirez/Lindor, the Orioles won't trade with the Nationals, the Red Sox have Devers/Bogaerts, the Cubs have Russell/Bryant.

At face value I would also think that the return would be lower given that Machado is essentially a rental, but I think there are a couple of factors that militate against that. First, Angelos is known to loathe big deals and has for years refused to enter a rebuild, even when the Orioles were consistently terrible. It's a surprise that Machado is being made available at all, and even as is, there's no reason to think that Baltimore is desperate to move him in the way that Miami was with Stanton. The modern day Orioles are probably the team most likely to sit on a pile of assets until it rots in the way that the Phillies did for years.

Second, contending in the MLB has always been kind of a crapshoot with the even the best teams winning only 60% or so of their games, and especially now with the second wild card, everybody is hoping to just squeeze into the playoffs and roll the dice from there. There are many more buyers than sellers--think about how the Giants lost 96 games and were willing to go all in on Stanton, and how the 94-loss Phillies are reported to be one of the teams most interested in Machado. Nobody in the MLB wants to rebuild (unless you have a new ownership group like in Miami) because everybody thinks they can contend, and because prospects are much more of a gamble in the MLB anyway. Even with first overall picks, you're pretty much as likely to get a bust as you are to get a superstar, and even if you get that superstar, one player is not going to turn a franchise around. Look at how the Angels have wasted the guy who has had maybe the best first six years to start a career ever. You need a concerted effort for many years along with some luck, like the Cubs and the Astros, and not many are willing to do that.

The tl;dr of all that is that there is plenty of demand, and Baltimore is probably not very motivated to sell.

Regarding tangible specifics, the report thus far is that Baltimore wants two young, controllable starters. That's pretty vague, but let's say it takes two out of Reyes, Weaver, and Flaherty--would you do that trade for a year of Machado? I wouldn't. If Machado has a bounce back season, you get maybe 5 additional wins out of that, maybe another win or two out of having Gyorko play a super-utility role, you lose something from your rotation, and the Cubs probably still win the division.

 

[Note Worthy]

According to Ken Rosenthal, "The Orioles’ goal in a Machado trade is to acquire two young, controllable starting pitchers, sources say."

Rosenthal goes on to say, "The St. Louis Cardinals, who are seeking an impact hitter and could use Machado at either short or third, are perhaps the most obvious match for the Orioles; they have the positional need and are deep in young starting pitchers."

 

[TheDizee]

yeah i dont make any trade unless he signs a extension. no more stupid heyward like trades.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

Machado is the best choice out of those available. I would tend to agree they shouldn't do another Heyward type trade, but they need to do something, and it needs to be a franchise type something. Marcell Ozuna isn't going to drastically close the gap on the Cubs by himself and while the Cardinals have a decent lineup with him, they need better players in other positions. They have the prospects to get Ozuna and Machado if they really wanted (I 100% think that won't happen). Plus, if you can acquire Machado, but don't resign him, you can still trade him at the TDL next season or get at least a compensatory pick. Personally, I think the Heyward trade is what probably scares DeWitt, Mo, and Girsch. In reality, Machado is the franchise bat they've been looking for, and if they want him, they need to pony up. He'll get between 35 and 45 million a year on his next contract. The Cardinals NEED to trade for him and then provide a contract too good to pass up. His agent is Pujol's, was Beltran's, etc. They have a working relationship there. I know it's risky dumping all that money into one player, but if you want to compete with the Cubs, the Cardinals NEED to get Machado, and probably get Colome and Archer from Tampa.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The Yankees reached out to the Orioles on Machado, so that pretty much means that he's going to sign there next summer.

If we can land Ozuna/Yelich+Colome+Donaldson/Longoria/3B+SP, I'll be very happy. Need to acquire at least 2 of those.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

The Yankees reached out to the Orioles on Machado, so that pretty much means that he's going to sign there next summer.

If we can land Ozuna/Yelich+Colome+Donaldson/Longoria/3B+SP, I'll be very happy. Need to acquire at least 2 of those.

Why would that mean Machado is going to sign there? I don't think anything is a certainty.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Why would that mean Machado is going to sign there? I don't think anything is a certainty.

If the Yankees are courting him, it's going to be extremely difficult to top them. They will offer more money, more tradition, and they just traded for Stanton. A lineup with Stanton, Judge, Machado, Sanchez would be incredible. He knows that and they'd be serious contenders for while those guys perform.

There's really no reason why he'd choose St. Louis over the Yankees. It's just not worth giving up significant assets, unless there is some sort of handshake agreement at a minimum.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

If the Yankees are courting him, it's going to be extremely difficult to top them. They will offer more money, more tradition, and they just traded for Stanton. A lineup with Stanton, Judge, Machado, Sanchez would be incredible. He knows that and they'd be serious contenders for while those guys perform.

There's really no reason why he'd choose St. Louis over the Yankees. It's just not worth giving up significant assets, unless there is some sort of handshake agreement at a minimum.

Cliche answer, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take (or if you're Sobotka, you miss 100% wide open nets). The Cardinals are wanting a franchise type player, Machado is that guy. They need to at least try.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Cliche answer, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take (or if you're Sobotka, you miss 100% wide open nets). The Cardinals are wanting a franchise type player, Machado is that guy. They need to at least try.

If you can get Machado to do a handshake extension, then sure, but if he's not receptive, it won't be worth the assets cost for 1 year.

 

[bleedblue1223]

We have acquired Ozuna. Haven't heard what cost is yet.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Joel Sherman just tweeted out that he believes it's an MLB outfielder and a pitching prospect. My guess would be Alcantara and Grichuk. The Marlins really like Alcantara apparently.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Bob Knightengale: "The Marlins will receive more valuable prospects in stlcards trade than Stanton and Gordon trades combined with package of pitchers and position player."

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

If the Cardinals can now acquire Colome and Longoria in a combo deal with Tampa, there is your deeper lineup and decent back of the bullpen arm.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Given how many bullpen arms are already signed, I would be surprised if we weren't pushing hard for Colome.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Alcantara+3 prospects for Ozuna. We are still pursuing another bat as well. Donaldson, Longoria, and Machado were named.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I would really like Donaldson, but it would have to be under a pretty distinct set of circumstances. I'm not interested in him as a pure rental. I'd want him to agree to something like a three or four year deal. Don't want a long term deal and dealing with the decline. I highly doubt that scenario happens though.

 

[Note Worthy]

Machado would be so amazing. Cardinals have the money to make him a great offer after next year; I don't see that being an issue.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

It’s been quite an exciting day for a Cards fan.

 

[Veneficus]

Like Ozuna, would love Machado. He's an absolute star, which is what we need. Add another bullpen arm and thats a good off-season.

 

[PiggySmalls]

Getting either Donaldson or Manny would be huge steps. With the new TV contract kicking in the Cardinals need to have something to show for.