If I was given this job before free agency, I would have gone in a different direction, I'd have signed one of the young centers that weren't tendered, but the rules say we start today, so...
1. Immediate plan for the upcoming season...
Bergeron and Krejci want to come back on team friendly deals you have to do it.
- Sign Bergeron @ $6m ($3m base, $3m bonus)
- Sign Krejci @ $5m ($2m base, $3m bonus)
- I'd elect a 1 year term in arbitration with Zacha and offer him $3.5m. He's got a lot to prove and if he doesn't deliver I need an out. I would also walk if he's awarded over $4.5.
Objectives for this season.
- Honor Bergeron's presence in the lineup by icing a competitive team. This means be a good team, make the playoffs and see if lightning strikes, but the days of going "all in" are behind us until we get a new core down the middle. So I won't be buying at the deadline unless it's a hockey trade.
- Immediately deal Nosek and Reilly. Craig Smith is also on the block but that one may wait until the deadline to maximize return. I would also deal Foligno if I can, even if I have to retain $1m, but I'm not paying anything significant to unload him, so no guarantees.
Bottom line; absolutely cannot carry those bonuses onto next year's cap.
- Integrate young players, particularly Studnicka.
- Add draft picks for 2023. I'd be that rare playoff caliber team that deals roster players.
2. Deadline Plan
I look to move Smith, he's in a contract year so I bet he's going to be productive and he still plays with energy. I'd also look to move Forbort, he should have value as a penalty killer right before the playoffs. I want Zboril playing in the playoffs. Hopefully we can get two mid-round picks out of it.
Marsh - Bergy - JDB
Hall - Krejci - Pasta
Zacha - Coyle - McLaughlin
Freddy - Studnicka - Steen
Grzelcyk - McAvoy
Lindholm - Carlo
Zboril - Clifton
Swayman - Ullmark
3. Off season planning for draft, and free agency.
- In the off-season I look to move Ullmark, at the draft if possible, after free agency if necessary. I hope to net a 2nd given the lack of quality goalies available around the league.
- Strategy for the draft... take the best center available in the first round and then whoever PJ Axelsson likes after that. Lol, I actually think they're doing better in the draft so outside of pushing for a center in the first round I let the scouts make the picks, and emphasize skill, skill, skill. The 2023 draft is deep and there are 5 potential high-end centers expected to go in the 13-22 range which is where I expect to be drafting: Wood, Heidt, Smith, Moore and Stenberg. Swing for the fences on every pick. No more "low floor" picks. You can get those guys as college free agents and on Day 2 of free agency.
- Strategy in free agency... Dylan Larkin or Bo Horvat. If one of them makes it to July 1st they are my top target. Short of that, I look at younger guys... Did Zacha sink or swim? Is he capable of being a 2nd line center? How about Studnicka. If both failed I look at the non-tendered UFA market to see if there is another Dylan Strome. If we landed Larkin and Zacha/Studnicka have taken a step forward we could be done "deep sea fishing." I also think you have to revisit Bergeron. Is he still performing at a high level? Does he want to keep playing? Ideally, he's not being asked to be the #1 center and he can become more of a Mark Recchi type of leader and mentor for the next generation. Between free agency, Bergeron and the kids we should at least have two #2 centers and at best a new #1 and a #2. we're in a place where we only need to bring 1 back because we've filled either the #1 center spot with a UFA or the #2 spot with a younger guy. I'd also look at graduating AHL UFA's who are mean/nasty SOB's to fill the role of the 13F, 8th D, designated face puncher. I think we've seen too many old warriors fail once they sign for money/term so I want to find young guys looking to prove themselves.
4. Medium term plan.
The plan in the medium term is to transition to a younger supporting cast, continue to provide a "winning environment" for players to develop in, and buy time for the "next core" to develop, specifically that '23 first round center, Lysell and Lohrei.
The team in 2023-24 would look something like...
Hall - Larkin/Bergy - Pasta
March - Studs/Zacha - Lysell
JDB - Coyle - McLaughlin
Frederic -Beecher - Steen
Lindholm - McAvoy
Lohrei - Carlo
Zboril - Wissman
Swayman - Keyser
Eventually I'm looking to transition from Coyle to Beecher, so it's conceivable my 2nd, 3rd and 4th line center are 3 of Studnicka, Beecher, Frederic or Harrison, in the medium term.
5. Five-year plan for long-term.
Long-term, I'm looking to build a team that has size/skill on the wings and size/power/snarl at center in the top9. I have six top6 forwards but use them evenly on lines 1-3, and supplement them with 3rd line types who can create some havoc by being physical and getting inside. The 4th line is more of a crash/energy line with guys who play simple, hit and fight.
The defense has at least 3 physical players but all 6 guys have to be able to skate, move the puck and jump up in the play, so even the 3 more physical guys need to have a two-way game. Bigger is better, but talent is more important than size IMO. I back the D up with a 1a/1b goalie system that competes for games.
Ideally, I spend 55% of the cap on forwards ($45m by today's cap), 33% of the cap on defensemen ($27m) and 8% of the cap in net $6.5m), that leaves me about 4% ($3.5m) in cap space for deadline deals. Ideally I'm spending my money on the play drivers and impact players, and backfilling the complimentary roles with young guys coming up.
I'd invest in scouting like no team in history. I'd put a dedicated scout on every team in the CHL, USHL, College and European leagues. Scouts are cheap so we would literally employ something like 2,000 scouts. My goal would be to be the best drafting team in the league in rounds 2-7. I want to be able to consistently find the Carlo, Marchand, Lucic types in those middle rounds and add quality college free agents every year, because I intend to trade my first round pick every year at the deadline, and if not, trade down to add additional middle round picks. I know that's completely counter to what most people believe but I think late 1st round picks are overrated. The probabilities there aren't that much better than the middle of the 2nd round, but the perception is that it's much higher value. In short, I think the probability of getting a player are higher from a mid-2nd and a mid-3rd versus one late 1st. I also think you can get some Grade A talent at the deadline (Hall, Lindholm) and if you can extend them you get them at a discount before silly season opens. So, a 27 year old in his prime, extended is worth more to me than a late first round lottery ticket.
I also take advantage of Boston being a desirable place for free agents. Lots of players live here in the off-season and that tradition of winning makes guys believe they aren't going to be on a cellar dweller for the duration of their deal. But again, the focus would be on play drivers, not complimentary players. For example, I'd like to be poised to make a 28 year old Jack Eichel an offer in 2026.
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