ATD Summary 2017

[BenchBrawl]

Forgot to reply to this earlier.

I have to say, I really like this as a starting point for understanding and quantifying the value of great "per-game" players.

Johnny's number of 97.42 is pretty much the same as the PPG VsX number I calculated for Lindros, which was 0.96.

I think I'll reload my chart.

To go back to Geoffrion versus Recchi, Recchi had a 7 years PPG VsX score of 0.81, while Geoffrion scored high at 1.01, the same as Maurice Richard.There's a gulf between their per-game productivity.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Take Eric Lindros. In the years between 94-99, and 2002, he has a 7 year VsX of 85.43. In those seven seasons, he play 81.55% of his scheduled games.
Looking at Hockey Outsider's chart, a 7-year VsX of around 65 makes you a replacement level player in the ATD if you're a modern player who doesn't bring much besides offense. So that means that about a fifth of the time, you're sticking that kind of player in the lineup.
So you take Lindros's entire score of 85.43, because he only needs sixty-something games to put those points on the board, and add 18.45% of the replacement score, which amounts to 11.99 more points. So Lindros's overall offensive impact is that of a player who scores more like 97.42.

This is a great idea. Here's the top 250 VsX after making an adjustment along these lines (seven years, unweighted, using a replacement level of 60):

Rank | Player | ADJ | OLD | DIFF
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 156.6 | 155.6 | 1
2 | Phil Esposito | 131 | 130.4 | 0.6
3 | Mario Lemieux | 128.3 | 119.8 | 8.5
4 | Gordie Howe | 126.3 | 125.5 | 0.7
5 | Bobby Orr | 118.3 | 114.8 | 3.4
6 | Jaromir Jagr | 117 | 114.2 | 2.9
7 | Bobby Hull | 109.6 | 108.3 | 1.3
8 | Stan Mikita | 109.1 | 107.8 | 1.3
9 | Guy Lafleur | 108.2 | 104.5 | 3.7
10 | Jean Beliveau | 107.7 | 105.7 | 1.9
11 | Ted Lindsay | 106.3 | 104.4 | 1.9
12 | Sidney Crosby | 105.4 | 101.8 | 3.7
13 | Howie Morenz | 104.1 | 102.2 | 1.9
14 | Marcel Dionne | 103.6 | 103.3 | 0.3
15 | Maurice Richard | 103.5 | 102.4 | 1.1
16 | Charlie Conacher | 102.7 | 96.2 | 6.5
17 | Bill Cowley | 102.4 | 97 | 5.3
18 | Andy Bathgate | 101.6 | 101.1 | 0.5
19 | Joe Sakic | 101 | 97.7 | 3.3
20 | Alex Ovechkin | 100.4 | 98.4 | 2
21 | Syl Apps Sr | 99.6 | 92.4 | 7.2
22 | Bernie Geoffrion | 98.9 | 89.9 | 9
23 | Peter Forsberg | 98.6 | 90.3 | 8.2
24 | Mike Bossy | 97 | 94.8 | 2.3
25 | Joe Thornton | 96.7 | 95.6 | 1.1
26 | Evgeni Malkin | 96.4 | 89.2 | 7.2
27 | Bill Cook | 96.4 | 96 | 0.4
28 | Bryan Trottier | 96.2 | 93.7 | 2.5
29 | Teemu Selanne | 95.8 | 92.7 | 3.1
30 | Eric Lindros | 95.6 | 85 | 10.6
31 | Frank Boucher | 95.5 | 95.1 | 0.4
32 | Steve Yzerman | 94.8 | 93.2 | 1.6
33 | Adam Oates | 93.4 | 90 | 3.3
34 | Max Bentley | 93 | 90.4 | 2.6
35 | Busher Jackson | 92.9 | 89.5 | 3.4
36 | Martin St. Louis | 92.7 | 92.4 | 0.3
37 | Sweeney Schriner | 92.7 | 91.3 | 1.4
38 | Mark Messier | 92.4 | 89.6 | 2.8
39 | Milt Schmidt | 92.3 | 86.9 | 5.5
40 | Jean Ratelle | 92 | 89.6 | 2.4
41 | Bobby Clarke | 92 | 90.4 | 1.5
42 | Nels Stewart | 91.8 | 90.3 | 1.5
43 | Gordie Drillon | 91.6 | 86.7 | 4.8
44 | Peter Stastny | 91.5 | 88.4 | 3
45 | Jari Kurri | 91.4 | 88.1 | 3.3
46 | Brett Hull | 91.3 | 88 | 3.4
47 | Doug Bentley | 91.2 | 86.6 | 4.6
48 | Norm Ullman | 90.8 | 89.5 | 1.4
49 | Dickie Moore | 90.6 | 85.4 | 5.1
50 | Roy Conacher | 90 | 85.2 | 4.8
51 | Marty Barry | 89.9 | 89.6 | 0.4
52 | John Bucyk | 89.9 | 88.7 | 1.2
53 | Ron Francis | 89.9 | 87.4 | 2.5
54 | Mark Recchi | 89.8 | 88.4 | 1.4
55 | Frank Mahovlich | 89.7 | 87.8 | 1.9
56 | Paul Coffey | 89.7 | 88.1 | 1.6
57 | Patrick Kane | 89.2 | 84.5 | 4.7
58 | Pavel Bure | 89.2 | 85.2 | 4
59 | Elmer Lach | 89 | 86.1 | 2.9
60 | Paul Kariya | 88.8 | 84.9 | 3.9
61 | Sid Abel | 88.7 | 87.3 | 1.4
62 | Henri Richard | 88.6 | 85.2 | 3.4
63 | Jarome Iginla | 88.6 | 86.7 | 1.9
64 | Darryl Sittler | 88.4 | 85.7 | 2.7
65 | Steven Stamkos | 88.2 | 83 | 5.2
66 | Pierre Turgeon | 88 | 82.1 | 5.8
67 | Daniel Alfredsson | 87.9 | 82.3 | 5.6
68 | Denis Savard | 87.5 | 85.5 | 1.9
69 | Toe Blake | 87.1 | 86.3 | 0.8
70 | Gilbert Perreault | 87.1 | 85.7 | 1.4
71 | Ziggy Palffy | 87.1 | 80.1 | 6.9
72 | Ryan Getzlaf | 86.7 | 82.1 | 4.6
73 | Pavel Datsyuk | 86.6 | 82.5 | 4.1
74 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 86.6 | 83.9 | 2.6
75 | Dale Hawerchuk | 86.3 | 86 | 0.3
76 | Rod Gilbert | 85.9 | 83.1 | 2.8
77 | Luc Robitaille | 85.8 | 84.2 | 1.6
78 | Mike Modano | 85.7 | 81.5 | 4.2
79 | Ken Hodge | 85.7 | 83.2 | 2.4
80 | Alex Delvecchio | 85.6 | 84.8 | 0.8
81 | Theoren Fleury | 85.4 | 82 | 3.4
82 | Nicklas Backstrom | 85.3 | 83.2 | 2
83 | Pat LaFontaine | 84.9 | 78.5 | 6.4
84 | Markus Naslund | 84.7 | 82.9 | 1.9
85 | Alexander Mogilny | 84.6 | 77.7 | 6.9
86 | Syd Howe | 84.6 | 83.9 | 0.7
87 | Henrik Sedin | 84.5 | 84.5 | 0
88 | Jason Spezza | 84.4 | 79.1 | 5.3
89 | Mats Sundin | 84.3 | 82.1 | 2.1
90 | Doug Gilmour | 83.6 | 82 | 1.6
91 | Keith Tkachuk | 83.6 | 79 | 4.5
92 | Marian Hossa | 83.5 | 82.4 | 1.2
93 | John LeClair | 83.4 | 81.7 | 1.7
94 | Sergei Fedorov | 83.3 | 80.8 | 2.6
95 | Paul Thompson | 83.3 | 82.6 | 0.7
96 | Yvan Cournoyer | 83.3 | 77.1 | 6.2
97 | Daniel Sedin | 83.2 | 79.9 | 3.2
98 | Claude Giroux | 83.1 | 79.9 | 3.2
99 | Ted Kennedy | 83 | 78.8 | 4.2
100 | Jeremy Roenick | 83 | 81.2 | 1.8
101 | Henrik Zetterberg | 83 | 78 | 5
102 | Aurel Joliat | 83 | 82.6 | 0.4
103 | Patrik Elias | 83 | 78.9 | 4.1
104 | Dany Heatley | 82.8 | 81 | 1.8
105 | Joe Primeau | 82.8 | 74.8 | 8
106 | Michel Goulet | 82.6 | 79.3 | 3.3
107 | Pavol Demitra | 82.5 | 74.5 | 8
108 | Hooley Smith | 82.3 | 78 | 4.3
109 | Lynn Patrick | 81.9 | 79.4 | 2.5
110 | Bryan Hextall | 81.8 | 80.9 | 0.9
111 | Doug Weight | 81.4 | 78.3 | 3
112 | Bernie Nicholls | 81.3 | 80.6 | 0.7
113 | Jacques Lemaire | 81.2 | 77.9 | 3.3
114 | Brendan Shanahan | 81.2 | 79 | 2.2
115 | Bobby Bauer | 80.8 | 74.6 | 6.3
116 | Bernie Federko | 80.6 | 77.6 | 3
117 | Phil Goyette | 80.6 | 75.2 | 5.3
118 | Eric Staal | 80 | 78.8 | 1.1
119 | John Tavares | 79.9 | 76.8 | 3.1
120 | Alex Kovalev | 79.8 | 75.3 | 4.5
121 | Herbie Lewis | 79.5 | 75 | 4.5
122 | Brad Richards | 79.5 | 78 | 1.5
123 | Cooney Weiland | 79.3 | 78.9 | 0.4
124 | Marc Savard | 79.1 | 73.3 | 5.8
125 | Phil Watson | 78.8 | 76.7 | 2.1
126 | Bert Olmstead | 78.7 | 75.9 | 2.8
127 | Kent Nilsson | 78.5 | 71.3 | 7.2
128 | Jason Allison | 78.5 | 65.9 | 12.7
129 | Raymond Bourque | 78.3 | 75.5 | 2.9
130 | Vincent Lecavalier | 78.2 | 76.9 | 1.3
131 | Anze Kopitar | 78.2 | 76.9 | 1.3
132 | Cecil Dillon | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0
133 | Red Kelly | 78 | 75.4 | 2.6
134 | Denis Potvin | 77.9 | 74.9 | 3
135 | Alexei Yashin | 77.8 | 77.1 | 0.8
136 | Corey Perry | 77.8 | 75 | 2.8
137 | Bill Mosienko | 77.7 | 75.2 | 2.5
138 | Dave Taylor | 77.6 | 70.2 | 7.4
139 | Neil Colville | 77.2 | 72.1 | 5.1
140 | Rick Martin | 77.1 | 73.1 | 4
141 | Bobby Rousseau | 77 | 75.5 | 1.5
142 | Marian Gaborik | 77 | 69.9 | 7.1
143 | Bun Cook | 76.9 | 76.3 | 0.5
144 | Johnny Gottselig | 76.8 | 74.8 | 2
145 | Dave Keon | 76.6 | 74.3 | 2.3
146 | Jamie Benn | 76.6 | 72.7 | 3.9
147 | Alex Tanguay | 76.5 | 73.4 | 3.1
148 | Clint Smith | 76.3 | 75.1 | 1.3
149 | Pete Mahovlich | 76.3 | 73.8 | 2.5
150 | Peter Bondra | 76.2 | 72 | 4.2
151 | Lanny McDonald | 76.2 | 74.1 | 2
152 | Phil Kessel | 76.1 | 74.9 | 1.3
153 | Jonathan Toews | 76.1 | 72.3 | 3.8
154 | Rick Middleton | 76 | 74.1 | 1.9
155 | Milan Hejduk | 76 | 73.1 | 2.8
156 | Larry Aurie | 75.9 | 71.6 | 4.4
157 | Woody Dumart | 75.8 | 72.7 | 3.2
158 | Dit Clapper | 75.8 | 73.7 | 2
159 | Tod Sloan | 75.7 | 70.9 | 4.9
160 | Rene Robert | 75.7 | 71 | 4.7
161 | Mike Ribeiro | 75.7 | 74.1 | 1.6
162 | Vincent Damphousse | 75.6 | 74 | 1.6
163 | Don McKenney | 75.4 | 73.3 | 2.1
164 | Ray Whitney | 75.4 | 72.9 | 2.5
165 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 75.3 | 70.3 | 5
166 | Rick MacLeish | 75.1 | 73.3 | 1.8
167 | Bill Thoms | 75 | 72.7 | 2.3
168 | Lorne Carr | 74.9 | 74.4 | 0.6
169 | Charlie Simmer | 74.9 | 65.2 | 9.7
170 | Brian Leetch | 74.4 | 73.7 | 0.7
171 | Zach Parise | 74.4 | 70.9 | 3.5
172 | Alex Zhamnov | 74.3 | 65.7 | 8.6
173 | Al MacInnis | 74.3 | 70.5 | 3.8
174 | Patrick Marleau | 74.2 | 73.2 | 1
175 | Eddie Wiseman | 74.1 | 71.8 | 2.2
176 | Glenn Anderson | 73.9 | 72 | 1.9
177 | Robert Lang | 73.8 | 67.8 | 6
178 | Billy Taylor | 73.7 | 65.5 | 8.2
179 | Dino Ciccarelli | 73.7 | 69.8 | 3.8
180 | Todd Bertuzzi | 73.6 | 68.5 | 5.1
181 | Paul Ronty | 73.5 | 67.8 | 5.8
182 | Rod Brind'Amour | 73.4 | 72.6 | 0.8
183 | Kevin Stevens | 73.4 | 67 | 6.5
184 | Dennis Maruk | 73.4 | 71.3 | 2.1
185 | Tony Amonte | 73.3 | 73 | 0.3
186 | Taylor Hall | 73.3 | 57.3 | 16
187 | Craig Janney | 73.3 | 67.4 | 5.9
188 | Pierre Larouche | 73.3 | 66.6 | 6.7
189 | Rick Nash | 73.2 | 69.2 | 4
190 | Owen Nolan | 73.1 | 66.6 | 6.6
191 | Cam Neely | 73 | 63.4 | 9.6
192 | Camille Henry | 73 | 67 | 6
193 | Joe Mullen | 72.9 | 71.6 | 1.3
194 | Pit Martin | 72.8 | 70.6 | 2.2
195 | Kenny Wharram | 72.6 | 69.8 | 2.8
196 | Tim Kerr | 72.6 | 61.7 | 10.9
197 | Steve Sullivan | 72.6 | 67.6 | 5
198 | Joe Pavelski | 72.6 | 71.1 | 1.5
199 | Ace Bailey | 72.5 | 66.6 | 5.9
200 | Alexander Semin | 72.4 | 64.1 | 8.3
201 | Steve Shutt | 72.4 | 70.6 | 1.8
202 | Thomas Vanek | 72.4 | 68.7 | 3.7
203 | Martin Straka | 72.3 | 67.4 | 4.9
204 | Gaye Stewart | 72.2 | 69.8 | 2.4
205 | Buddy O'Connor | 72 | 65.9 | 6.2
206 | Red Berenson | 72 | 67.5 | 4.5
207 | Steve Larmer | 71.9 | 71.9 | 0
208 | Johnny Gagnon | 71.7 | 70.4 | 1.3
209 | Bobby Smith | 71.7 | 68.9 | 2.8
210 | Ed Litzenberger | 71.7 | 67.5 | 4.2
211 | Brian Propp | 71.6 | 67.2 | 4.4
212 | Bill Barber | 71.5 | 70 | 1.5
213 | Brad Park | 71.4 | 63.3 | 8.2
214 | Petr Nedved | 71.4 | 65.9 | 5.6
215 | Syl Apps | 71.2 | 69.1 | 2.2
216 | Johnny Peirson | 71.2 | 64.1 | 7.1
217 | Tomas Sandstrom | 71.2 | 62.5 | 8.7
218 | Gary Roberts | 71.1 | 60.6 | 10.5
219 | Dave Andreychuk | 71 | 69.5 | 1.5
220 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 71 | 69.4 | 1.6
221 | Glen Murray | 70.8 | 65.5 | 5.2
222 | Wayne Cashman | 70.7 | 67.8 | 2.9
223 | Walt Tkaczuk | 70.6 | 67.8 | 2.9
224 | Jozef Stumpel | 70.6 | 62.7 | 7.8
225 | Baldy Northcott | 70.6 | 68.6 | 2
226 | Ebbie Goodfellow | 70.5 | 69.6 | 1
227 | Butch Goring | 70.4 | 67.8 | 2.7
228 | John McKenzie | 70.3 | 65 | 5.3
229 | Jimmy Ward | 70.3 | 68.5 | 1.9
230 | Fred Stanfield | 70.3 | 67.8 | 2.4
231 | Mike Gartner | 70.2 | 68.8 | 1.4
232 | Daniel Briere | 70.2 | 61.7 | 8.5
233 | Patrick Sharp | 70.2 | 66.2 | 4
234 | Saku Koivu | 70.1 | 60.4 | 9.7
235 | Scott Gomez | 70 | 67.6 | 2.4
236 | Garry Unger | 70 | 70.1 | -0.1
237 | Herb Cain | 70 | 67.1 | 2.8
238 | Bronco Horvath | 69.9 | 57.3 | 12.6
239 | Erik Karlsson | 69.8 | 61.2 | 8.7
240 | Paul Stastny | 69.8 | 63.4 | 6.4
241 | Jim Pappin | 69.7 | 63.4 | 6.4
242 | Art Chapman | 69.6 | 65.2 | 4.4
243 | Neal Broten | 69.6 | 64.5 | 5
244 | Barry Pederson | 69.6 | 64.7 | 4.9
245 | Martin Havlat | 69.5 | 60.4 | 9.1
246 | Shane Doan | 69.4 | 66.1 | 3.3
247 | Paul Haynes | 69.3 | 60.2 | 9.1
248 | Sid Smith | 69.3 | 68.2 | 1.1
249 | Dennis Hull | 69.2 | 68.3 | 0.9
250 | Mickey Redmond | 69.2 | 56.7 | 12.5

Example - in 1996, Eric Lindros achieved a VsX of 95.8 in 73 games. Let's give him credit for 60 * the 9 games he didn`t play / 82 = 9.0 more "points". So he ends up with 102.4.

There were 183 players with an "old" VsX of 70 or higher. The players with the biggest changes were Lindros (+10.6), Geoffrion (+9.0), Lemieux (+8.5), Forsberg (+8.2), Demitra (+8.0), Primeau (+8.0), Taylor (+7.4), Apps (+7.2), Malkin (+7.2) and Nilsson (+7.2).

Only one player dropped - Gary Unger. Thanks to a trade he played 549 out of a possible 548 games during his seven best VsX years, and that extra game gets clawed back here.

Data is from 1927 to 2016. All seasons are normalized to 82 games.

I put this together in about 20 minutes. I don't see any obvious errors but let me know if anything looks funny.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Lindros.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Not surprised to see Syl Apps Sr up there.He too performed very well in PPG VsX.The two methods give very similar results.

According to the chart, Geoffrion has the third greatest difference between the old and adjusted score among the "relevant players" (so no Jason Allison and the likes).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

According to the chart, Geoffrion has the third greatest difference between the old and adjusted score among the "relevant players" (so no Jason Allison and the likes).

I double-checked the numbers when I saw that. I never realized how much time Geoffrion missed in his prime.

 

[jarek]

When you guys calculate this, are you calculating the points per game of ALL players in a season?

Maybe this won't be so relevant but there may be some seasons where multiple players achieved a points per game level that would catapult them in the points standings, and if you only adjusted one of those players, it would ignore what the other did.

 

[BenchBrawl]

When you guys calculate this, are you calculating the points per game of ALL players in a season?

Maybe this won't be so relevant but there may be some seasons where multiple players achieved a points per game level that would catapult them in the points standings, and if you only adjusted one of those players, it would ignore what the other did.

My method is not the same as what HO posted above, but I made a PPG VsX system months ago.

I calculated the PPG benchmark every year using the same methodology (with a few twists) as the normal VsX system.I'd need to output more numbers to present the data, but when I did it no one was interested in them much so I didn't bother (I'm not an excel wizard like HO or seventieslord, so it takes more time).

If anyone is interested in having the benchmarks (which is what takes most time calculating) to play with this, here they are from season 26-27 to 15-16:

Numbers all calculated in good faith

0.73
0.89
0.66
1.48
1.16
1.09
0.92
0.92
1.05
0.89
0.87
0.92
0.98
1.08
1.04
1.15
1.44
1.9
1.56
1.2
1.18
1
1
1
1.02
0.99
0.87
0.89
1.07
1.13
1.1
1.2
1.26
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.17
1.24
1.19
1.15
1.03
1.15
1.45
1.13
1.13
1.36
1.46
1.14
1.51
1.56
1.31
1.46
1.49
1.48
1.69
1.84
1.65
1.51
1.63
1.78
1.39
1.64
1.69
1.6
1.68
1.64
1.76
1.51
1.46
1.58
1.52
1.26
1.43
1.35
1.39
1.17
1.36
1.15
lock out
1.34
1.39
1.36
1.38
1.37
1.27
1.21
1.25
1.2
1.08
1.09

 

[jarek]

You don't need to do anything fancy to figure out the benchmarks. Hockey reference already does it for you.

If you use the season finder, you can look at each individual season, force a minimum games played of, say, 10, and sort by points per game. Then you can calculate the benchmarks.

I wonder, how much interest would there be for a program that can spit out any number of statistics for any player? For example, write a custom program that includes all the data like overpass' TOI spreadsheet and VsX benchmarks, and you just select a player, select the stat you want and it just spits it out for you. That way, so many useful little things can be very easily figured out with a couple of mouse clicks.

 

[BenchBrawl]

You don't need to do anything fancy to figure out the benchmarks. Hockey reference already does it for you.

If you use the season finder, you can look at each individual season, force a minimum games played of, say, 10, and sort by points per game. Then you can calculate the benchmarks.

Yeah, and this is what I did.It's time-consumming.

I used a minimum of half-a-season, and ignored the scores of anyone who didn't play half the season, both in calculating the benchmarks and calculating the players' own yearly score.This has the disadvantage of "erasing" some chunk of games played by players who didn't play at least half the season, but it was a start.

 

[ResilientBeast]

You don't need to do anything fancy to figure out the benchmarks. Hockey reference already does it for you.

If you use the season finder, you can look at each individual season, force a minimum games played of, say, 10, and sort by points per game. Then you can calculate the benchmarks.

I wonder, how much interest would there be for a program that can spit out any number of statistics for any player? For example, write a custom program that includes all the data like overpass' TOI spreadsheet and VsX benchmarks, and you just select a player, select the stat you want and it just spits it out for you. That way, so many useful little things can be very easily figured out with a couple of mouse clicks.

That would be fairly straightforward for anyone with a programming background

 

[BenchBrawl]

I wonder, how much interest would there be for a program that can spit out any number of statistics for any player?

I'd love it.

 

[jarek]

That would be fairly straightforward for anyone with a programming background

The programming side of it is trivial as long as the input data is formatted correctly. The biggest issue is actually gathering all the data and formatting it properly. The second biggest issue is design.

Anyways, things that I think might be useful for such a program: overall VsX (and give the user the option to choose any range of years), ES VsX, PP VsX (because why not? same code), defense VsX, soviet equivalency VsX (if seventies ever gets them to a point where he's comfortable sharing..), Dreakmur's consolidated VsX, PK usage (could include a year by year breakdown since the overall number doesn't always give an accurate picture), TOI ranks..

 

[jarek]

Average career length is something I'd be very interested in. This would be really easy to calculate as long as all the players are accounted for.

I would define a player as counting against another player's career in determining average length as having played at least 1.5 full seasons at any point during said player's career.

Alternatively, you define specific eras and a player who happens to fall within multiple eras would just count within the era he most played in.

For the vast majority of leagues, I would count average career length over the course of the entire league's existence.

Although this might only really be relevant for post-consolidation since my end-game for this would be an adjusted VsX metric against average career length, because I think applying a 7 year standard unilaterally just doesn't make sense.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

My method is not the same as what HO posted above, but I made a PPG VsX system months ago.

I calculated the PPG benchmark every year using the same methodology (with a few twists) as the normal VsX system.I'd need to output more numbers to present the data, but when I did it no one was interested in them much so I didn't bother (I'm not an excel wizard like HO or seventieslord, so it takes more time).

If anyone is interested in having the benchmarks (which is what takes most time calculating) to play with this, here they are from season 26-27 to 15-16:

Here are the results from 1927 to present, using the benchmarks you posted (seven years unweighted):

Rank|Player|PPG

TABLE REMOVED

Two important notes:

First, I used a threshold of 21 games (adjusted to an 82 game schedule) in order to include a player`s season. For example, this meant I included Crosby`s 2012 season. He has has 1.48 over his seven best seasons (8th all time). If we excluded 2012, he`d drop to 1.40 (still in 8th place).

Second, I did a simple, rather than weighted average when I calculated PPG over their best seasons. In other words - each season counts for the same, regardless of number of games played.

Disclaimer: I've had a fair amount of scotch tonight. Let me know if anything looks off.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Thanks for that, interesting.The numbers are different from mine, they are much higher.Anyone scoring over 1 in my numbers was a (ATD) superstar.I admit I do not understand why your numbers are so high.It makes no sense that so many players would have 7 years scores over 1.Even if you included more seasons than I did (e.g. Crosby in 2012, which I excluded), it cannot explain this discrepancy.What am I missing?

I have an answer for you - scotch!

Third attempt at doing this...

Filtered so that every season with less than 41.0 adjusted games played gets eliminated. Is this close to what you were getting?

Rank|Player|PPG
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 1.56
2 | Mario Lemieux | 1.38
3 | Phil Esposito | 1.31
4 | Gordie Howe | 1.22
5 | Bobby Orr | 1.2
6 | Sidney Crosby | 1.1
7 | Guy Lafleur | 1.09
8 | Jaromir Jagr | 1.09
9 | Bobby Hull | 1.08
10 | Stan Mikita | 1.07
11 | Jean Beliveau | 1.05
12 | Ted Lindsay | 1.05
13 | Marcel Dionne | 1.04
14 | Bill Cowley | 1.03
15 | Syl Apps Sr | 1.02
16 | Bernie Geoffrion | 1.01
17 | Maurice Richard | 1.01
18 | Howie Morenz | 0.99
19 | Charlie Conacher | 0.99
20 | Evgeni Malkin | 0.98
21 | Mike Bossy | 0.98
22 | Alex Ovechkin | 0.97
23 | Bryan Trottier | 0.96
24 | Andy Bathgate | 0.96
25 | Eric Lindros | 0.96
26 | Joe Thornton | 0.94
27 | Steve Yzerman | 0.94
28 | Joe Sakic | 0.94
29 | Jari Kurri | 0.94
30 | Busher Jackson | 0.93
31 | Jean Ratelle | 0.93
32 | Peter Forsberg | 0.93
33 | Bill Cook | 0.92
34 | Paul Coffey | 0.92
35 | Peter Stastny | 0.92
36 | Sweeney Schriner | 0.92
37 | Elmer Lach | 0.91
38 | Frank Boucher | 0.91
39 | Max Bentley | 0.91
40 | Bobby Clarke | 0.91
41 | Norm Ullman | 0.91
42 | Frank Mahovlich | 0.91
43 | Doug Bentley | 0.91
44 | Mark Messier | 0.9
45 | Teemu Selanne | 0.9
46 | Gordie Drillon | 0.9
47 | Adam Oates | 0.89
48 | John Bucyk | 0.89
49 | Nels Stewart | 0.89
50 | Martin St. Louis | 0.89
51 | Denis Savard | 0.88
52 | Darryl Sittler | 0.88
53 | Patrick Kane | 0.88
54 | Marty Barry | 0.88
55 | Milt Schmidt | 0.87
56 | Gilbert Perreault | 0.87
57 | Henri Richard | 0.87
58 | Ron Francis | 0.87
59 | Pavel Datsyuk | 0.86
60 | Roy Conacher | 0.86
61 | Ken Hodge | 0.86
62 | Rod Gilbert | 0.86
63 | Pierre Turgeon | 0.86
64 | Yvan Cournoyer | 0.85
65 | Toe Blake | 0.85
66 | Daniel Alfredsson | 0.85
67 | Dale Hawerchuk | 0.85
68 | Brett Hull | 0.85
69 | Sid Abel | 0.85
70 | Ryan Getzlaf | 0.85
71 | Alex Delvecchio | 0.85
72 | Jarome Iginla | 0.85
73 | Jason Spezza | 0.84
74 | Dickie Moore | 0.84
75 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 0.84
76 | Nicklas Backstrom | 0.84
77 | Pavel Bure | 0.83
78 | Ted Kennedy | 0.83
79 | Henrik Zetterberg | 0.83
80 | Pat LaFontaine | 0.83
81 | Michel Goulet | 0.83
82 | Paul Thompson | 0.82
83 | Bernie Nicholls | 0.82
84 | Daniel Sedin | 0.82
85 | Paul Kariya | 0.82
86 | Henrik Sedin | 0.82
87 | Bernie Federko | 0.82
88 | Mark Recchi | 0.81
89 | Alexander Mogilny | 0.81
90 | Jacques Lemaire | 0.81
91 | Steven Stamkos | 0.81
92 | Dave Taylor | 0.81
93 | Dany Heatley | 0.8
94 | Phil Goyette | 0.8
95 | Mike Modano | 0.8
96 | Luc Robitaille | 0.8
97 | Kent Nilsson | 0.8
98 | Ziggy Palffy | 0.8
99 | Doug Gilmour | 0.8
100 | Herbie Lewis | 0.79
101 | Theoren Fleury | 0.79
102 | Mats Sundin | 0.79
103 | Lynn Patrick | 0.79
104 | Marian Hossa | 0.79
105 | Hooley Smith | 0.79
106 | Aurel Joliat | 0.79
107 | Sergei Fedorov | 0.79
108 | Pavol Demitra | 0.79
109 | Syd Howe | 0.78
110 | Claude Giroux | 0.78
111 | Marc Savard | 0.78
112 | John Tavares | 0.78
113 | Keith Tkachuk | 0.78
114 | Markus Naslund | 0.78
115 | Red Kelly | 0.78
116 | Rick Martin | 0.77
117 | Bert Olmstead | 0.77
118 | Joe Primeau | 0.77
119 | Eric Staal | 0.77
120 | Marian Gaborik | 0.77
121 | Cecil Dillon | 0.77
122 | Raymond Bourque | 0.77
123 | Patrik Elias | 0.76
124 | Bryan Hextall | 0.76
125 | John LeClair | 0.76
126 | Brad Richards | 0.76
127 | Bill Mosienko | 0.76
128 | Jeremy Roenick | 0.76
129 | Phil Watson | 0.76
130 | Dave Keon | 0.75
131 | Pete Mahovlich | 0.75
132 | Denis Potvin | 0.75
133 | Rick Middleton | 0.75
134 | Anze Kopitar | 0.75
135 | Brendan Shanahan | 0.75
136 | Bobby Rousseau | 0.75
137 | Corey Perry | 0.75
138 | Rene Robert | 0.75
139 | Cooney Weiland | 0.75
140 | Lanny McDonald | 0.75
141 | Vincent Lecavalier | 0.75
142 | Alex Kovalev | 0.75
143 | Charlie Simmer | 0.74
144 | Jonathan Toews | 0.74
145 | Johnny Gottselig | 0.74
146 | Jamie Benn | 0.74
147 | Alex Tanguay | 0.74
148 | Clint Smith | 0.74
149 | Glenn Anderson | 0.74
150 | Doug Weight | 0.73
151 | Lorne Carr | 0.73
152 | Dino Ciccarelli | 0.73
153 | Bobby Bauer | 0.73
154 | Cam Neely | 0.73
155 | Rick MacLeish | 0.73
156 | Brian Propp | 0.73
157 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 0.73
158 | Don McKenney | 0.73
159 | Joe Mullen | 0.73
160 | Mike Ribeiro | 0.73
161 | Phil Kessel | 0.73
162 | Tim Kerr | 0.73
163 | Larry Aurie | 0.73
164 | Bun Cook | 0.72
165 | Ray Whitney | 0.72
166 | Zach Parise | 0.72
167 | Pit Martin | 0.72
168 | Pierre Larouche | 0.72
169 | Alex Zhamnov | 0.72
170 | Bobby Smith | 0.72
171 | Tod Sloan | 0.72
172 | Rick Nash | 0.72
173 | Eddie Wiseman | 0.72
174 | Alexander Semin | 0.72
175 | Brad Park | 0.72
176 | Camille Henry | 0.71
177 | Alexei Yashin | 0.71
178 | Steve Shutt | 0.71
179 | Patrick Marleau | 0.71
180 | Dennis Maruk | 0.71
181 | Red Berenson | 0.71
182 | Woody Dumart | 0.71
183 | Bill Thoms | 0.71
184 | Buddy O'Connor | 0.7
185 | Thomas Vanek | 0.7
186 | Peter Bondra | 0.7
187 | Dit Clapper | 0.7
188 | Vincent Damphousse | 0.7
189 | Syl Apps | 0.7
190 | John McKenzie | 0.7
191 | Johnny Gagnon | 0.7
192 | Milan Hejduk | 0.7
193 | Jimmy Ward | 0.7
194 | Bill Barber | 0.7
195 | Fred Stanfield | 0.7
196 | Butch Goring | 0.7
197 | Steve Larmer | 0.7
198 | Joe Pavelski | 0.7
199 | Tomas Sandstrom | 0.69
200 | Wayne Cashman | 0.69
201 | Al MacInnis | 0.69
202 | Craig Janney | 0.69
203 | Neil Colville | 0.69
204 | Garry Unger | 0.69
205 | Neal Broten | 0.69
206 | Rod Brind'Amour | 0.69
207 | Dave Andreychuk | 0.69
208 | Kevin Stevens | 0.69
209 | Gaye Stewart | 0.69
210 | Vic Hadfield | 0.69
211 | Kenny Wharram | 0.69
212 | Robert Lang | 0.69
213 | Jim Pappin | 0.69
214 | Mike Gartner | 0.69
215 | Walt Tkaczuk | 0.69
216 | Doc Romnes | 0.69
217 | Dennis Hull | 0.69
218 | Baldy Northcott | 0.68
219 | Herb Cain | 0.68
220 | Paul Stastny | 0.68
221 | Johnny Peirson | 0.68
222 | Steve Sullivan | 0.68
223 | Tom Lysiak | 0.68
224 | Guy Chouinard | 0.68
225 | Rick Tocchet | 0.68
226 | Dean Prentice | 0.68
227 | Owen Nolan | 0.68
228 | Todd Bertuzzi | 0.68
229 | Patrick Sharp | 0.68
230 | Sid Smith | 0.67
231 | Wilf Paiement | 0.67
232 | Martin Havlat | 0.67
233 | Peter McNab | 0.67
234 | Saku Koivu | 0.67
235 | Daniel Briere | 0.67
236 | Brian Leetch | 0.66
237 | Gary Roberts | 0.66
238 | Billy Taylor | 0.66
239 | Jean Pronovost | 0.66
240 | Patrice Bergeron | 0.66
241 | Paul Ronty | 0.66
242 | David Krejci | 0.66
243 | Bill Goldsworthy | 0.66
244 | Bill Hay | 0.66
245 | Paul Henderson | 0.66
246 | Art Chapman | 0.66
247 | Barry Pederson | 0.66
248 | Ace Bailey | 0.66
249 | Olli Jokinen | 0.66
250 | Jason Arnott | 0.66

To walk through this...

In 2011 Crosby scored 1.61 PPG, and the benchmark was 1.27, so he gets 1.27. (He played 41 games in an 82 game schedule, so this counts, just barely - his 2012 season doesn't).

In 2013 he scored 1.56 PPG and the benchmark was 1.25, so he gets 1.24. (He played 36 games in a 48 game season or 61.5 "adjusted" games, so this season qualifies).

In 2007 he scored 1.52 PPG and the benchmark was 1.39, so he gets 1.09.

Do the same for 2014, 2015, 2008 and 2010 and you get 1.08, 1.01. 1.00 and 0.98 respectively. Average those and you get 1.10 - which puts him in 6th place.

 

[VanIslander]

14 Charlie Conacher 1.04
15 Bill Cowley 1.03
16 Syl Apps Sr 1.02
19 Howie Morenz 0.99

 

[Hockey Outsider]

14 Charlie Conacher 1.04
15 Bill Cowley 1.03
16 Syl Apps Sr 1.02
19 Howie Morenz 0.99

I'm having trouble with this tonight, aren't I? Let's try again - see the revised post above.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I'm having trouble with this tonight, aren't I? Let's try again - see the revised post above.

Just saw your edit, those numbers are pretty much the same as mines.Thanks a lot man, wish I was an excel wizard like you, I should try to work on that.

As a whole, this system passes the smell test imo and should complement the normal VsX scores (along with ESVsX, PPVsX and the likes).

By the way, the reason I eliminated every seasons where the player played less than half the games is because if the player had a very good streak but didn't play half the games, it will certainly be among his best 7 seasons and will thus artificially boost his score, while if he played less than half the game and had a cold streak, it won't lower his score because it won't qualify as a Top 7 season.From that perspective, the player can get the benefits of a great shortened season while not suffering the consequences of a bad one.I think half the games is a reasonable line to draw on the sand.

BTW, enjoy your scotch!

Edit: For those interested, here's the methodology I used to find the benchmarks (in red are the changes I made to the VsX methodology to fit PPG):

Allright, I have done the hard work of going through every post-consolidation NHL season and trying to set some kind of benchmark against which we can compare scoring in a VsX percentages system. Before I post the results, my methodology (red are my changes to the methodology):

1. First preference is to use the 2nd highest point-per-game score.

2. If (3rd PPG score)/(2nd PPG score) < .90, I use the 3rd PPG score, unless...

3. There is a gap of greater than 10% anywhere else in the top-5 (of PPG scores) - following the same method as above: [small #]/[large #] < .90.

At that point, I take the first gap, and identify the upper outlier group (top 3 or 4 or 5 above which the gap occurs), and then go down into the PPG scoring table until I reach a number of players which equals: [size of outlier group] * 2. The benchmark is set as an average of the PPG score of these players.

4. If any player in the top-5 is more than 7% below the player above him and more than 7% above the player below him, his PPG score is taken as the benchmark. [this is the Bathgate Rule]

5.Only players that played half the games in the season are considered in the application of these rules to find the benchmark.Also, only seasons where the player played at least half the games will be considered in the compilation of his best of X seasons score.In a nutshell, any season where the player did not play at least half the games disappears.

 

[seventieslord]

This is a great idea. Here's the top 250 VsX after making an adjustment along these lines (seven years, unweighted, using a replacement level of 60):
(table omitted)

Example - in 1996, Eric Lindros achieved a VsX of 95.8 in 73 games. Let's give him credit for 60 * the 9 games he didn`t play / 82 = 9.0 more "points". So he ends up with 102.4.

There were 183 players with an "old" VsX of 70 or higher. The players with the biggest changes were Lindros (+10.6), Geoffrion (+9.0), Lemieux (+8.5), Forsberg (+8.2), Demitra (+8.0), Primeau (+8.0), Taylor (+7.4), Apps (+7.2), Malkin (+7.2) and Nilsson (+7.2).

Only one player dropped - Gary Unger. Thanks to a trade he played 549 out of a possible 548 games during his seven best VsX years, and that extra game gets clawed back here.

Data is from 1927 to 2016. All seasons are normalized to 82 games.

I put this together in about 20 minutes. I don't see any obvious errors but let me know if anything looks funny.

There are two ways I could foresee doing this:

1) take the best 7 years as we already have them in raw VsX, and adjust those up for missed games using replacement offense, or

2) calculate a new score for every season adjusted up for missed games using replacement offense, meaning for many players their best 7 seasons now include a couple seasons that it didn't before.

I prefer the 2nd. just curious which way you did it.

 

[BenchBrawl]

By the way Hockey Outsider, there is a mistake with the last PPG benchmark.This is because I calculated it while the 2016 season was still ongoing and never changed it.The benchmark is not 1.16 but 1.09, equals to #2 PPG scorer Jamie Benn.Sorry about that.

 

[jarek]

And then at the end of the day, the trouble I have with this system is that there's no way of knowing exactly what would have happened.

On top of that, if we are going to actually use these numbers as legitimately as VsX, then injuries need to be taken much more seriously in the ATD. A player will need to be evaluated by (total games played / total number of games), and have their VsXPPG multiplied by that factor. Then, we would need to calculate an ACTUAL replacement VsXPPG, not just guess, adjust it by a factor of (100 - (total games played / total number of games)), and add it to the first player's VsXPPG. I suppose in the case of the ATD, you can use the VsX of the player replacing said player in the lineup. Although this adds even more wrinkles because then you would need to re-evaluate things like line chemistry.

Then you have to redo this for the playoffs.

And none of this accounts for the fact that we are only assuming that a player would have carried their per game numbers into those missed games. A player who was blazing hot and scored 10 points in the last 3 games before missing the rest of the season is not the same as a player who had scored 2 points in the last 10 games and then missed the rest of the season.

I just really don't see the point of all this when a player's injuries are already built into their legacy (their placement in the scoring race, specifically, as well as any potential all star and award voting). I don't really see what the problem is with just assuming a player will play 82 games and taking what they actually did at face value. It's so much simpler, and as far as I'm concerned, doesn't do said player any injustice at all. You don't even have to assume you're getting a "lesser" version of them if you just take what they did at face value.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

There are two ways I could foresee doing this:

1) take the best 7 years as we already have them in raw VsX, and adjust those up for missed games using replacement offense, or

2) calculate a new score for every season adjusted up for missed games using replacement offense, meaning for many players their best 7 seasons now include a couple seasons that it didn't before.

I prefer the 2nd. just curious which way you did it.

I did the 2nd approach. For example Pierre Turgeon's 2000 campaign (when he was T-3rd in PPG while playing 52 games) actually becomes his top season, as opposed to his 8th best according to the old model. Under the 1st approach, it would have been excluded entirely.

By the way Hockey Outsider, there is a mistake with the last PPG benchmark.This is because I calculated it while the 2016 season was still ongoing and never changed it.The benchmark is not 1.16 but 1.09, equals to #2 PPG scorer Jamie Benn.Sorry about that.

No worries, I've updated the table above. Pretty small changes though. For example Crosby remains at 1.10, Kane goes from 0.87 to 0.88, and Benn goes from 0.73 to 0.74.

And then at the end of the day, the trouble I have with this system is that there's no way of knowing exactly what would have happened.

I agree with many of your comments. Those familiar with my posting history know that I'm generally not into making a lot of allowance for injuries. But it's obvious that 160 points in 60 games isn't the same as 160 points in 82 games (nor would it be the same as 219 points in 82 games). I'm hoping the data serves to start a conversation but it isn't intended to be a definitive metric.

 

[jarek]

I agree with many of your comments. Those familiar with my posting history know that I'm generally not into making a lot of allowance for injuries. But it's obvious that 160 points in 60 games isn't the same as 160 points in 82 games (nor would it be the same as 219 points in 82 games). I'm hoping the data serves to start a conversation but it isn't intended to be a definitive metric.

I agree with your point here to be sure. I'm not necessarily completely against creating a PPG metric, but we have to keep in mind that if we're going to do that, then we need to start looking at other things that get directly affected by it.

 

[tinyzombies]

This is a great idea. Here's the top 250 VsX after making an adjustment along these lines (seven years, unweighted, using a replacement level of 60):

Rank | Player | ADJ | OLD | DIFF
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 156.6 | 155.6 | 1
2 | Phil Esposito | 131 | 130.4 | 0.6
3 | Mario Lemieux | 128.3 | 119.8 | 8.5
4 | Gordie Howe | 126.3 | 125.5 | 0.7
5 | Bobby Orr | 118.3 | 114.8 | 3.4
6 | Jaromir Jagr | 117 | 114.2 | 2.9
7 | Bobby Hull | 109.6 | 108.3 | 1.3
8 | Stan Mikita | 109.1 | 107.8 | 1.3
9 | Guy Lafleur | 108.2 | 104.5 | 3.7
10 | Jean Beliveau | 107.7 | 105.7 | 1.9
11 | Ted Lindsay | 106.3 | 104.4 | 1.9
12 | Sidney Crosby | 105.4 | 101.8 | 3.7
13 | Howie Morenz | 104.1 | 102.2 | 1.9
14 | Marcel Dionne | 103.6 | 103.3 | 0.3
15 | Maurice Richard | 103.5 | 102.4 | 1.1
16 | Charlie Conacher | 102.7 | 96.2 | 6.5
17 | Bill Cowley | 102.4 | 97 | 5.3
18 | Andy Bathgate | 101.6 | 101.1 | 0.5
19 | Joe Sakic | 101 | 97.7 | 3.3
20 | Alex Ovechkin | 100.4 | 98.4 | 2
21 | Syl Apps Sr | 99.6 | 92.4 | 7.2
22 | Bernie Geoffrion | 98.9 | 89.9 | 9
23 | Peter Forsberg | 98.6 | 90.3 | 8.2
24 | Mike Bossy | 97 | 94.8 | 2.3
25 | Joe Thornton | 96.7 | 95.6 | 1.1
26 | Evgeni Malkin | 96.4 | 89.2 | 7.2
27 | Bill Cook | 96.4 | 96 | 0.4
28 | Bryan Trottier | 96.2 | 93.7 | 2.5
29 | Teemu Selanne | 95.8 | 92.7 | 3.1
30 | Eric Lindros | 95.6 | 85 | 10.6
31 | Frank Boucher | 95.5 | 95.1 | 0.4
32 | Steve Yzerman | 94.8 | 93.2 | 1.6
33 | Adam Oates | 93.4 | 90 | 3.3
34 | Max Bentley | 93 | 90.4 | 2.6
35 | Busher Jackson | 92.9 | 89.5 | 3.4
36 | Martin St. Louis | 92.7 | 92.4 | 0.3
37 | Sweeney Schriner | 92.7 | 91.3 | 1.4
38 | Mark Messier | 92.4 | 89.6 | 2.8
39 | Milt Schmidt | 92.3 | 86.9 | 5.5
40 | Jean Ratelle | 92 | 89.6 | 2.4
41 | Bobby Clarke | 92 | 90.4 | 1.5
42 | Nels Stewart | 91.8 | 90.3 | 1.5
43 | Gordie Drillon | 91.6 | 86.7 | 4.8
44 | Peter Stastny | 91.5 | 88.4 | 3
45 | Jari Kurri | 91.4 | 88.1 | 3.3
46 | Brett Hull | 91.3 | 88 | 3.4
47 | Doug Bentley | 91.2 | 86.6 | 4.6
48 | Norm Ullman | 90.8 | 89.5 | 1.4
49 | Dickie Moore | 90.6 | 85.4 | 5.1
50 | Roy Conacher | 90 | 85.2 | 4.8
51 | Marty Barry | 89.9 | 89.6 | 0.4
52 | John Bucyk | 89.9 | 88.7 | 1.2
53 | Ron Francis | 89.9 | 87.4 | 2.5
54 | Mark Recchi | 89.8 | 88.4 | 1.4
55 | Frank Mahovlich | 89.7 | 87.8 | 1.9
56 | Paul Coffey | 89.7 | 88.1 | 1.6
57 | Patrick Kane | 89.2 | 84.5 | 4.7
58 | Pavel Bure | 89.2 | 85.2 | 4
59 | Elmer Lach | 89 | 86.1 | 2.9
60 | Paul Kariya | 88.8 | 84.9 | 3.9
61 | Sid Abel | 88.7 | 87.3 | 1.4
62 | Henri Richard | 88.6 | 85.2 | 3.4
63 | Jarome Iginla | 88.6 | 86.7 | 1.9
64 | Darryl Sittler | 88.4 | 85.7 | 2.7
65 | Steven Stamkos | 88.2 | 83 | 5.2
66 | Pierre Turgeon | 88 | 82.1 | 5.8
67 | Daniel Alfredsson | 87.9 | 82.3 | 5.6
68 | Denis Savard | 87.5 | 85.5 | 1.9
69 | Toe Blake | 87.1 | 86.3 | 0.8
70 | Gilbert Perreault | 87.1 | 85.7 | 1.4
71 | Ziggy Palffy | 87.1 | 80.1 | 6.9
72 | Ryan Getzlaf | 86.7 | 82.1 | 4.6
73 | Pavel Datsyuk | 86.6 | 82.5 | 4.1
74 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 86.6 | 83.9 | 2.6
75 | Dale Hawerchuk | 86.3 | 86 | 0.3
76 | Rod Gilbert | 85.9 | 83.1 | 2.8
77 | Luc Robitaille | 85.8 | 84.2 | 1.6
78 | Mike Modano | 85.7 | 81.5 | 4.2
79 | Ken Hodge | 85.7 | 83.2 | 2.4
80 | Alex Delvecchio | 85.6 | 84.8 | 0.8
81 | Theoren Fleury | 85.4 | 82 | 3.4
82 | Nicklas Backstrom | 85.3 | 83.2 | 2
83 | Pat LaFontaine | 84.9 | 78.5 | 6.4
84 | Markus Naslund | 84.7 | 82.9 | 1.9
85 | Alexander Mogilny | 84.6 | 77.7 | 6.9
86 | Syd Howe | 84.6 | 83.9 | 0.7
87 | Henrik Sedin | 84.5 | 84.5 | 0
88 | Jason Spezza | 84.4 | 79.1 | 5.3
89 | Mats Sundin | 84.3 | 82.1 | 2.1
90 | Doug Gilmour | 83.6 | 82 | 1.6
91 | Keith Tkachuk | 83.6 | 79 | 4.5
92 | Marian Hossa | 83.5 | 82.4 | 1.2
93 | John LeClair | 83.4 | 81.7 | 1.7
94 | Sergei Fedorov | 83.3 | 80.8 | 2.6
95 | Paul Thompson | 83.3 | 82.6 | 0.7
96 | Yvan Cournoyer | 83.3 | 77.1 | 6.2
97 | Daniel Sedin | 83.2 | 79.9 | 3.2
98 | Claude Giroux | 83.1 | 79.9 | 3.2
99 | Ted Kennedy | 83 | 78.8 | 4.2
100 | Jeremy Roenick | 83 | 81.2 | 1.8
101 | Henrik Zetterberg | 83 | 78 | 5
102 | Aurel Joliat | 83 | 82.6 | 0.4
103 | Patrik Elias | 83 | 78.9 | 4.1
104 | Dany Heatley | 82.8 | 81 | 1.8
105 | Joe Primeau | 82.8 | 74.8 | 8
106 | Michel Goulet | 82.6 | 79.3 | 3.3
107 | Pavol Demitra | 82.5 | 74.5 | 8
108 | Hooley Smith | 82.3 | 78 | 4.3
109 | Lynn Patrick | 81.9 | 79.4 | 2.5
110 | Bryan Hextall | 81.8 | 80.9 | 0.9
111 | Doug Weight | 81.4 | 78.3 | 3
112 | Bernie Nicholls | 81.3 | 80.6 | 0.7
113 | Jacques Lemaire | 81.2 | 77.9 | 3.3
114 | Brendan Shanahan | 81.2 | 79 | 2.2
115 | Bobby Bauer | 80.8 | 74.6 | 6.3
116 | Bernie Federko | 80.6 | 77.6 | 3
117 | Phil Goyette | 80.6 | 75.2 | 5.3
118 | Eric Staal | 80 | 78.8 | 1.1
119 | John Tavares | 79.9 | 76.8 | 3.1
120 | Alex Kovalev | 79.8 | 75.3 | 4.5
121 | Herbie Lewis | 79.5 | 75 | 4.5
122 | Brad Richards | 79.5 | 78 | 1.5
123 | Cooney Weiland | 79.3 | 78.9 | 0.4
124 | Marc Savard | 79.1 | 73.3 | 5.8
125 | Phil Watson | 78.8 | 76.7 | 2.1
126 | Bert Olmstead | 78.7 | 75.9 | 2.8
127 | Kent Nilsson | 78.5 | 71.3 | 7.2
128 | Jason Allison | 78.5 | 65.9 | 12.7
129 | Raymond Bourque | 78.3 | 75.5 | 2.9
130 | Vincent Lecavalier | 78.2 | 76.9 | 1.3
131 | Anze Kopitar | 78.2 | 76.9 | 1.3
132 | Cecil Dillon | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0
133 | Red Kelly | 78 | 75.4 | 2.6
134 | Denis Potvin | 77.9 | 74.9 | 3
135 | Alexei Yashin | 77.8 | 77.1 | 0.8
136 | Corey Perry | 77.8 | 75 | 2.8
137 | Bill Mosienko | 77.7 | 75.2 | 2.5
138 | Dave Taylor | 77.6 | 70.2 | 7.4
139 | Neil Colville | 77.2 | 72.1 | 5.1
140 | Rick Martin | 77.1 | 73.1 | 4
141 | Bobby Rousseau | 77 | 75.5 | 1.5
142 | Marian Gaborik | 77 | 69.9 | 7.1
143 | Bun Cook | 76.9 | 76.3 | 0.5
144 | Johnny Gottselig | 76.8 | 74.8 | 2
145 | Dave Keon | 76.6 | 74.3 | 2.3
146 | Jamie Benn | 76.6 | 72.7 | 3.9
147 | Alex Tanguay | 76.5 | 73.4 | 3.1
148 | Clint Smith | 76.3 | 75.1 | 1.3
149 | Pete Mahovlich | 76.3 | 73.8 | 2.5
150 | Peter Bondra | 76.2 | 72 | 4.2
151 | Lanny McDonald | 76.2 | 74.1 | 2
152 | Phil Kessel | 76.1 | 74.9 | 1.3
153 | Jonathan Toews | 76.1 | 72.3 | 3.8
154 | Rick Middleton | 76 | 74.1 | 1.9
155 | Milan Hejduk | 76 | 73.1 | 2.8
156 | Larry Aurie | 75.9 | 71.6 | 4.4
157 | Woody Dumart | 75.8 | 72.7 | 3.2
158 | Dit Clapper | 75.8 | 73.7 | 2
159 | Tod Sloan | 75.7 | 70.9 | 4.9
160 | Rene Robert | 75.7 | 71 | 4.7
161 | Mike Ribeiro | 75.7 | 74.1 | 1.6
162 | Vincent Damphousse | 75.6 | 74 | 1.6
163 | Don McKenney | 75.4 | 73.3 | 2.1
164 | Ray Whitney | 75.4 | 72.9 | 2.5
165 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 75.3 | 70.3 | 5
166 | Rick MacLeish | 75.1 | 73.3 | 1.8
167 | Bill Thoms | 75 | 72.7 | 2.3
168 | Lorne Carr | 74.9 | 74.4 | 0.6
169 | Charlie Simmer | 74.9 | 65.2 | 9.7
170 | Brian Leetch | 74.4 | 73.7 | 0.7
171 | Zach Parise | 74.4 | 70.9 | 3.5
172 | Alex Zhamnov | 74.3 | 65.7 | 8.6
173 | Al MacInnis | 74.3 | 70.5 | 3.8
174 | Patrick Marleau | 74.2 | 73.2 | 1
175 | Eddie Wiseman | 74.1 | 71.8 | 2.2
176 | Glenn Anderson | 73.9 | 72 | 1.9
177 | Robert Lang | 73.8 | 67.8 | 6
178 | Billy Taylor | 73.7 | 65.5 | 8.2
179 | Dino Ciccarelli | 73.7 | 69.8 | 3.8
180 | Todd Bertuzzi | 73.6 | 68.5 | 5.1
181 | Paul Ronty | 73.5 | 67.8 | 5.8
182 | Rod Brind'Amour | 73.4 | 72.6 | 0.8
183 | Kevin Stevens | 73.4 | 67 | 6.5
184 | Dennis Maruk | 73.4 | 71.3 | 2.1
185 | Tony Amonte | 73.3 | 73 | 0.3
186 | Taylor Hall | 73.3 | 57.3 | 16
187 | Craig Janney | 73.3 | 67.4 | 5.9
188 | Pierre Larouche | 73.3 | 66.6 | 6.7
189 | Rick Nash | 73.2 | 69.2 | 4
190 | Owen Nolan | 73.1 | 66.6 | 6.6
191 | Cam Neely | 73 | 63.4 | 9.6
192 | Camille Henry | 73 | 67 | 6
193 | Joe Mullen | 72.9 | 71.6 | 1.3
194 | Pit Martin | 72.8 | 70.6 | 2.2
195 | Kenny Wharram | 72.6 | 69.8 | 2.8
196 | Tim Kerr | 72.6 | 61.7 | 10.9
197 | Steve Sullivan | 72.6 | 67.6 | 5
198 | Joe Pavelski | 72.6 | 71.1 | 1.5
199 | Ace Bailey | 72.5 | 66.6 | 5.9
200 | Alexander Semin | 72.4 | 64.1 | 8.3
201 | Steve Shutt | 72.4 | 70.6 | 1.8
202 | Thomas Vanek | 72.4 | 68.7 | 3.7
203 | Martin Straka | 72.3 | 67.4 | 4.9
204 | Gaye Stewart | 72.2 | 69.8 | 2.4
205 | Buddy O'Connor | 72 | 65.9 | 6.2
206 | Red Berenson | 72 | 67.5 | 4.5
207 | Steve Larmer | 71.9 | 71.9 | 0
208 | Johnny Gagnon | 71.7 | 70.4 | 1.3
209 | Bobby Smith | 71.7 | 68.9 | 2.8
210 | Ed Litzenberger | 71.7 | 67.5 | 4.2
211 | Brian Propp | 71.6 | 67.2 | 4.4
212 | Bill Barber | 71.5 | 70 | 1.5
213 | Brad Park | 71.4 | 63.3 | 8.2
214 | Petr Nedved | 71.4 | 65.9 | 5.6
215 | Syl Apps | 71.2 | 69.1 | 2.2
216 | Johnny Peirson | 71.2 | 64.1 | 7.1
217 | Tomas Sandstrom | 71.2 | 62.5 | 8.7
218 | Gary Roberts | 71.1 | 60.6 | 10.5
219 | Dave Andreychuk | 71 | 69.5 | 1.5
220 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 71 | 69.4 | 1.6
221 | Glen Murray | 70.8 | 65.5 | 5.2
222 | Wayne Cashman | 70.7 | 67.8 | 2.9
223 | Walt Tkaczuk | 70.6 | 67.8 | 2.9
224 | Jozef Stumpel | 70.6 | 62.7 | 7.8
225 | Baldy Northcott | 70.6 | 68.6 | 2
226 | Ebbie Goodfellow | 70.5 | 69.6 | 1
227 | Butch Goring | 70.4 | 67.8 | 2.7
228 | John McKenzie | 70.3 | 65 | 5.3
229 | Jimmy Ward | 70.3 | 68.5 | 1.9
230 | Fred Stanfield | 70.3 | 67.8 | 2.4
231 | Mike Gartner | 70.2 | 68.8 | 1.4
232 | Daniel Briere | 70.2 | 61.7 | 8.5
233 | Patrick Sharp | 70.2 | 66.2 | 4
234 | Saku Koivu | 70.1 | 60.4 | 9.7
235 | Scott Gomez | 70 | 67.6 | 2.4
236 | Garry Unger | 70 | 70.1 | -0.1
237 | Herb Cain | 70 | 67.1 | 2.8
238 | Bronco Horvath | 69.9 | 57.3 | 12.6
239 | Erik Karlsson | 69.8 | 61.2 | 8.7
240 | Paul Stastny | 69.8 | 63.4 | 6.4
241 | Jim Pappin | 69.7 | 63.4 | 6.4
242 | Art Chapman | 69.6 | 65.2 | 4.4
243 | Neal Broten | 69.6 | 64.5 | 5
244 | Barry Pederson | 69.6 | 64.7 | 4.9
245 | Martin Havlat | 69.5 | 60.4 | 9.1
246 | Shane Doan | 69.4 | 66.1 | 3.3
247 | Paul Haynes | 69.3 | 60.2 | 9.1
248 | Sid Smith | 69.3 | 68.2 | 1.1
249 | Dennis Hull | 69.2 | 68.3 | 0.9
250 | Mickey Redmond | 69.2 | 56.7 | 12.5

Example - in 1996, Eric Lindros achieved a VsX of 95.8 in 73 games. Let's give him credit for 60 * the 9 games he didn`t play / 82 = 9.0 more "points". So he ends up with 102.4.

There were 183 players with an "old" VsX of 70 or higher. The players with the biggest changes were Lindros (+10.6), Geoffrion (+9.0), Lemieux (+8.5), Forsberg (+8.2), Demitra (+8.0), Primeau (+8.0), Taylor (+7.4), Apps (+7.2), Malkin (+7.2) and Nilsson (+7.2).

Only one player dropped - Gary Unger. Thanks to a trade he played 549 out of a possible 548 games during his seven best VsX years, and that extra game gets clawed back here.

Data is from 1927 to 2016. All seasons are normalized to 82 games.

I put this together in about 20 minutes. I don't see any obvious errors but let me know if anything looks funny.

I bet there's no way to account for QOT or QOC and assume you are equalizing strength of scoring across all eras?

Players like Orr, Lemieux, Lindros, Mikita, Perreault... guys who suffered major injuries and were not quite the same after should somehow get upgraded even further, unless it doesn't touch their best 7 years, no? Beliveau too was always hurt. Bossy, Crosby, Forsberg... Lafleur after his knee surgery. Gretz doesn't apply because he had plenty of big seasons before he hurt his back. Serge Savard wasn't the same after he broke his leg...

That falls into the peak vs career argument though I guess.

 

[BenchBrawl]

And then at the end of the day, the trouble I have with this system is that there's no way of knowing exactly what would have happened.

On top of that, if we are going to actually use these numbers as legitimately as VsX, then injuries need to be taken much more seriously in the ATD. A player will need to be evaluated by (total games played / total number of games), and have their VsXPPG multiplied by that factor. Then, we would need to calculate an ACTUAL replacement VsXPPG, not just guess, adjust it by a factor of (100 - (total games played / total number of games)), and add it to the first player's VsXPPG. I suppose in the case of the ATD, you can use the VsX of the player replacing said player in the lineup. Although this adds even more wrinkles because then you would need to re-evaluate things like line chemistry.

Then you have to redo this for the playoffs.

And none of this accounts for the fact that we are only assuming that a player would have carried their per game numbers into those missed games. A player who was blazing hot and scored 10 points in the last 3 games before missing the rest of the season is not the same as a player who had scored 2 points in the last 10 games and then missed the rest of the season.

I just really don't see the point of all this when a player's injuries are already built into their legacy (their placement in the scoring race, specifically, as well as any potential all star and award voting). I don't really see what the problem is with just assuming a player will play 82 games and taking what they actually did at face value. It's so much simpler, and as far as I'm concerned, doesn't do said player any injustice at all. You don't even have to assume you're getting a "lesser" version of them if you just take what they did at face value.

The PPGVsX score is to be used as a complement to the VsX score; the former should almost always be presented with the latter.VsX completely ignores per-game domination.By taking the best 7 years, it is highly likely that the PPGVsX score is a decent representation of a player's per-game productivity in his prime.I do not share your concerns (or not close to the same extent) about some players "cheating their way" to a high score because they had unsustainable pace that would have slowed down without injuries.This would have to happen in many years to truly give an unreasonable score.

If two players have a VsX score of 84, and player A has a PPGVsX score of 0.94 and player B has a PPGVsX score of 0.83, then you know player A is a more dominant player, but also more injury prone, than player B.It quickly reveals a picture, and this is the goal of the system.

VsX was never intended to be a perfect system, it was intended to be a quick system.Meaning, it's a quick way for our human brain to relativize the offense of scoring forwards.PPGVsX is the same; if presented side by side with the VsX score, it is intended to be a quick way to relativize the per-game dominance of scoring forwards.We could develop obscenely complicated systems, trying to take everything into account, but eventually it would be hard to use and most people wouldn't even understand the methodology of such systems, nevermind calculating the numbers themselves.