ATD Chat Thread XV

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jarek

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Taking a winger over a C is generally a pretty stupid idea, especially when that C is somebody like Matthews.

I would say this should be the case in any situation where the center is even remotely comparable to the winger. He can always play wing if he fails at center.

Speaking of center, it's kind of hilarious how the Leafs have gone from having some of the worst depth at center to maybe the best in the NHL, seemingly overnight. Kadri finally starting to live up to the hype is a big, big deal, and is a PRIME example of what may happen if you don't give up on a guy.
 
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Johnny Engine

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Speaking of center, it's kind of hilarious how the Leafs have gone from having some of the worst depth at center to maybe the best in the NHL, seemingly overnight. Kadri finally starting to live up to the hype is a big, big deal, and is a PRIME example of what may happen if you don't give up on a guy.
They don't have the best depth at centre. Matthews looks like he's among the very best first line centres, and Kadri would in the conversation for the best second line centre if not for a few notable outliers like Malkin and Kuznetsov. Bozak is also an excellent centre for a "dagger line", but if you put him in an apples to oranges comparison with some of the defensive centres on good teams, I'm not sure he's necessarily overqualified, just very good. Guys like Fehr and Moore can be had for a 4th round draft pick if you need one, and the jury's out on Aaltonen, Brooks, Gauthier being able to step in to a meaningful degree. I'd like to see more overripe prospects threatening Bozak's job before I get really excited about the overall centre lineup, but it's certainly good.
 

VanIslander

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Are the Leafs suddenly contenders?

I have been watching hockey for over a third of a century and have had to PUT UP WITH optimistic bragging Leaf fans waaaay too often.

From 1980 to today, the Leafs have failed to make the playoffs or been bounced in the first round 28 times, including the last 12 seasons STRAIGHT!

They are so often lauded as playoff contenders prematurely and then fade away. They have made the conference finals (and never the finals) five times in the last half century. Chicago has done that five times since 2009. Pittsburgh, Detroit, Montreal, Boston, Colorado, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Dallas have all done it five times since I finished high school in 1987. There might be other teams I've forgotten about.

It's been a half century since the Leafs have had a Stanley Cup team. It will likely be a few more years before they have another one.
 

jarek

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They don't have the best depth at centre. Matthews looks like he's among the very best first line centres, and Kadri would in the conversation for the best second line centre if not for a few notable outliers like Malkin and Kuznetsov. Bozak is also an excellent centre for a "dagger line", but if you put him in an apples to oranges comparison with some of the defensive centres on good teams, I'm not sure he's necessarily overqualified, just very good. Guys like Fehr and Moore can be had for a 4th round draft pick if you need one, and the jury's out on Aaltonen, Brooks, Gauthier being able to step in to a meaningful degree. I'd like to see more overripe prospects threatening Bozak's job before I get really excited about the overall centre lineup, but it's certainly good.

OK. Who has better center depth, top to bottom?
 

Johnny Engine

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OK. Who has better center depth, top to bottom?

Looking across the NHL, I'm surprised at how close to right you might be.
Washington's centre depth tracks pretty close to Toronto's:
Backstrom and Matthews are both in the superstar tier just below Crosby and McDavid. Matthews looks more dynamic right now, but Backstrom has a sterling track record.
Kuznetsov and Kadri could both be first liners on a handful of other teams, but not great ones. Kuznetsov has topped 75 points before, Kadri is developing a reputation as a shutdown beast.
Eller and Bozak are very good role players with scattershot results as fully rounded players. They wouldn't be out of place in your top six, but you wouldn't want it.
Jay Beagle, Eric Fehr and Dominic Moore are as interchangeable as NHL players get, but Toronto has two of them.
From what I can tell, Tyler Graovac and Miro Aaltonen have pretty similar upside. So do Travis Boyd and Adam Brooks. Freddy the Goat has far more upside as a Holik/Boyle type than non-descript banger Zach Sill, but the jury is still out on him being an NHL player at all.

Pittsburgh with Bonino was much better than either of those lineups, but they don't have him anymore. If they go out and get someone to plug into that hole in their lineup, they vault way past the Caps and Leafs immediately.

I'd like to hear some feedback from others on that assessment.
 

Johnny Engine

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Also, if Draisaitl counts as a centre, this isn't even a conversation, but then I'd have to bring in Nylander, and I don't think he makes sense to count either.
 

jarek

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Matthews is what really turned this conversation around. The Leafs had surprisingly good center depth in recent years, but everyone was playing about one line too high. The introduction of Matthews dropped everyone to their proper place.
 
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ResilientBeast

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I was thinking about this the other day, I feel pretty I guess sad about how Tavares's career has shaped up. I remember him being super hyped up 06-09 before his draft year. Overshadowing the 06, 07, 08 draft years entirely. Then he gets drafted by the Islanders who've just never been able to really get it together.

It just really seems like he's one of the all time calibre players hurt by his situation, getting screwed over by Benn for the Art Ross also doesn't help his case.

He's just a guy who even if we hit 40 teams in an ATD I don't think the case could be made for him as a second liner unless you went for wingers early and he's the least qualified member of his line

Stamkos I think would be a defensible choice for a second line and a top 80 center slot.

Heck I would probably consider Nicklas Backstrom ahead of him

Thoughts?
 
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jarek

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Tavares hasn't really been relevant for a while. Probably will never be. Like you said, because of his team situation.

He's got to go somewhere else if he cares about his career.
 

Iceman

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I was thinking about this the other day, I feel pretty I guess sad about how Tavares's career has shaped up. I remember him being super hyped up 06-09 before his draft year. Overshadowing the 06, 07, 08 draft years entirely. Then he gets drafted by the Islanders who've just never been able to really get it together.

It just really seems like he's one of the all time calibre players hurt by his situation, getting screwed over by Benn for the Art Ross also doesn't help his case.

He's just a guy who even if we hit 40 teams in an ATD I don't think the case could be made for him as a second liner unless you went for wingers early and he's the least qualified member of his line

Stamkos I think would be a defensible choice for a second line and a top 80 center slot.

Heck I would probably consider Nicklas Backstrom ahead of him

Thoughts?

I don't see why Bäckström shouldn't be a 2nd line center in a bigger draft. He got the offensive production on top of being a solid defensive player.
 

ResilientBeast

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I don't see why Bäckström shouldn't be a 2nd line center in a bigger draft. He got the offensive production on top of being a solid defensive player.

I don't know if you remember the hype around Tavares, it was probably as if not higher than McDavid.

And he was talked about for years in advance so one would expect him to surpass most other picks in that time frame
 

Johnny Engine

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I don't know if you remember the hype around Tavares, it was probably as if not higher than McDavid.

And he was talked about for years in advance so one would expect him to surpass most other picks in that time frame

I'd say that 16 year old Tavares and 16 year old McDavid were pretty close in hype.
Definitely not in their draft year, though. There was a bit of a media horse race narrative about Hedman going first overall, and that would have never happened to McDavid. Not with Eichel, not if he had to go up against Matthews or Laine, probably not even if he had to go up against Dahlin.
 

ResilientBeast

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I'd say that 16 year old Tavares and 16 year old McDavid were pretty close in hype.
Definitely not in their draft year, though. There was a bit of a media horse race narrative about Hedman going first overall, and that would have never happened to McDavid. Not with Eichel, not if he had to go up against Matthews or Laine, probably not even if he had to go up against Dahlin.
I think that was because you could clearly see that Tavares was bored in the OHL. He'd already broken most of the records he was capable of right?

Of the three good ole Canadian boys wearing 91, Tavares is going to be totally forgotten. Stamkos (91) and Segui (91) I think are going to be remembered more fondly than Tavares.

I think the potential slip was also just because he was under the microscope for so long. He had 4 seasons in the OHL

77 (15), 134 (16), 118 (17), 104 (18)

Is a wild stat line, at age 16 he ripped the OHL apart

McDavid

66 (16), 99 (17), 120 (18)

Tavares was right there with McDavid at ages 16, 17

I think the media needs something to bank on right?

There were scouts who suggested Eichel over McDavid, and Laine of Matthews there are almost always dissenters. Like how much of that is added to try build a narrative to grip viewers? The who goes number 1 hype made that draft more interesting

At the time Tavares as the potential "generational" top line center was clearly the pick over Hedman.
 

ResilientBeast

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The idea I'm getting behind is Tavares got sandwiched by so much great center talent I'm struggling to find a good historical comparable for his situation.

2003-2008
2003 - Getzlaf
2004 - Malkin
2005 - Crosby
2006 - Toews, Backstron
2007 - No one of Note
2008 - Stamkos

2010 - 2015
2010 - Seguin
2011 - No one of note
2012 - No one of note
2013 - Barkov I guess
2014 - Drasaitl
2015 - McDavid, Eichel

Besides having a shitty situation on Long Island he's had crazy competition before he was in the league and there was a lull between 2010-2014ish. Where theoretically he should be in his prime but never really took that next step besides the year he lost to Benn. He followed that year up be scoring 16 less points in 4 less games.

The 2010s should've been Tavares's decade consistently battling those who came before him but he just never managed to get it together or enough help
 

VanIslander

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On the Vegas board I've been predicting a competitive team for a looooooong time.

I'm on record there for predicting they'd have a 6-2-2 start to the season and be in the playoff hunt in February.

I have been following the budding franchise closely since they hired ex-Caps GM McPhee. Then he picked coach Gallant whom I respected as a player and as coach in Florida who simply will NOT play to lose or middle around. He reminds me of Ted Nolan that way. Every game, every shift, he holds every player accountable, not in an angry way, but a focused and comment-rich feedback way.

Nate Schmidt from Washington leads the blueline in minutes played, getting the special teams ice time the Caps had not given him. He also leads the team in blocked shots.

Cody Eakin has been the most consistently great forward. Neal has had moments of brilliance and a dominant game against Dallas physically as well. Perron will be traded by the deadline simply because he is a playoff warrior right now, doing all the little things right. What a great line.

The blueline is mostly pending UFAs, and as I detailed in the summer on the Vegas board, that means the defensemen compete hard to impress on every shift from the preseason onward.

Thank god it looks like Reinhart will finally be dumped in the coming week.

:vegas Notice how my avatar has been wearing a Knights helmet for over half a year?

(Before any wisecracks about teams I am a fan of - Vancouver and San Jose are majoring sucking in the West and it's due to bad GMing and I painfully follow them still, but Nashville and now Vegas give me two Western conference teams to watch night in and night out and invest hopes in.)
 

Iceman

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First of all, I've said this before but I thought they were going to be a bubble team if they picked the right players. They did well in the entry draft but I didn't agree with their picks in the expansion draft. Despite saying that, I figured they would still have a hot start because they know they have more to prove than elite veteran players in the first game of the year but turns out they are even hotter then I would ever think. Good for them. Some of those "veteran" teams will miss the playoffs by a few points because they played on auto pilot to start the season.
 

Voight

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Lundqvist has been so bad this year.... and he's still got a ton of money left on his deal (8.5 M cap hit)

I think that was because you could clearly see that Tavares was bored in the OHL. He'd already broken most of the records he was capable of right?

Yea, at 16 he won OHL MVP and CHL POY, was invited to go play with the Marlies. He was basically supposed to do what McDavid's doing in the NHL, i.e being the "next one" after Sid/Ovy

As a Pittsburgh fan, I love it when people boo 87. Makes these memories all the more sweeter. :D

3x Stanley Cup Champion (2009, 2016, 2017)

Cute, but sorry, my man Captain Serious did it first. :cool:

C-ljERjXUAEmA91.jpg


What are you talking about, the lottery these days is insured by cooperation worth 100xs the NHL, the lottery these days is definitely not fixed or McDavid or Matthews would be in Arizona

It was fixed McDavid would have landed in T.O that year. Generational talent playing for his hometown/favorite team, also the Leagues most popular & valuable team? The player to bring the Maple Leafs back to the promised land? I can see the dollar signs in Bettman's eyes.
 
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jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
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Yeah, and I'll raise you the fact that Crosby was the first to win back to back Cups in the salary cap era and go back to back with the Conn Smythe since some guy named Mario :D

No, the Penguins were the first to do that. Hockey is as much a team sport as any.
 
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VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
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Here's to hoping Drew Doughty chooses Toronto in free agency.
Toronto simply doesn't have the cap room to sign him, especially with young star RFAs to re-sign.

I doubt the Leafs would even try to make an offer.
 

jarek

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Aug 15, 2009
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Toronto simply doesn't have the cap room to sign him, especially with young star RFAs to re-sign.

I doubt the Leafs would even try to make an offer.

I would gladly sacrifice one of Nylander or Marner, for example, for a stud #1 D. Especially one who has experience winning Stanley Cups.
 
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