ATD 2017 Final: Chicago Shamrocks vs Montreal Canadiens

[BenchBrawl]

You are correct on Modano, this is why I said "especially when considering offensive longevity" perhaps I should have been more clear.

You said:

Datsyuk was a strong/elite two-way player when putting up all of his numbers, while some of Modano's best offensive years came before he learned to be a two-way guy. In other words, if you're giving Modano credit for his defense you need to somewhat discount his offense, especially when you're talking about longevity of offense.

I disagree with what you're trying to do.Following your logic, that's like saying Gretzky should give up some of his playmaking longevity (8th-and-worst years) if he wants to keep his 7-best years goalscoring level because in his weaker years he was only getting high assist counts and couldn't keep up his goalscoring prowesses.

I cannot agree with your take on Datsyuk, he is not close to the same situation Modano was. Modano was an offense-only player early in his career, and then made a sudden change under Ken Hitchcock (Modano's first Selke consideration was Hitchcock's first full season as coach). Datsyuk was never an offense-only player, always good defensively and developed into great/elite.

I never said anything that contradicts what you are saying, I only presented facts and offered no opinion at all.I did force you to argue that Datsyuk was good defensively pre-Selke, but merely by presenting data.

The bottom line is Modano's offensive years when he wasn't good defensively are just bonuses.He's not a Steve Yzerman situation.Modano's best offensive years coincide with his two-way years, and the way you phrased it made it look like you tried to argue otherwise, that he was a Steve Yzerman situation.

Also, I find it strange you are not counting 2007 above as Datsyuk had a 20th place Selke finish, but you are counting Modano's 2000 where he finished 18th.

I re-quote you:

Datsyuk was a strong/elite two-way player when putting up all of his numbers, while some of Modano's best offensive years came before he learned to be a two-way guy.

As soon as Modano gets his first high Selke finish, we can say that he "learned to be a two-way guy", even if in a subsequent season he only gets a 18th in Selke voting.

Datsyuk's 20th place in Selke was his first ever Selke finish, so it's different.Maybe I should have included it, but I wouldn't have included it if it was Modano's first, so I didn't include it for Datsyuk.

You've done good work trying to come up with an AS record for Fredrickson, but it is an inexact science, and surely you cannot directly compare AS team finishes from back then to the much deeper league of today. I don't think it would be unfair to say a 5th/6th AS finish today is equivalent to a 3rd back then, especially at Center.

I disagree.Fredrickson's competition at center was very strong in his prime, and we're talking very high end finishes.I'm not convinced at all finishing 3rd in an era where Nighbor, Morenz, Malone, Stewart, Lalonde, Keats, Mackay are playing is much different than in today's league.I understand some of these players weren't playing in some years, but it's still high end competition.

Fredrickson's competition at center varied, but the biggest ATD names were Morenz, Nighbor, Lalonde, Malone, Stewart, Mackay and Keats.

Kopitar's competition at center varied too, but the biggest ATD names were Crosby, Malkin, Thornton, Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Toews, Sedin and Bergeron.You could also include guys who might rise, but who is that? Stamkos? Tavares?

If the pool is larger, you will get more random players with the potential for a big season, but the higher the Xth finish is, the more its value should be constant throughout eras.I don't think Kopitar's competition justifies turning a 3rd place into a 6th place at all.It becomes impossible to compete on an historical level if the criteria is that severe.

I'm not saying some adjustments shouldn't be made, but we have to be careful not to make it impossible for a player of Fredrickson's era except the best to compete historically.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Faceoffs - (Fredrickson)

I said somewhere that my centers were strong at faceoffs but that Fredrickson was an unknown.Re-reading some threads it appears there is some information about Fredrickson's faceoff performance in Game 3 of the SC Finals which wasn't available in my bio.The information was found by Canadiens1958 in one of the Top 60 Centers of All-Time Project.

Game 3 - SC Finals 1925:

THIRD PERIOD

Frederickson secured the puck at the faceoff everytime tonight

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=G-0tAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yosFAAAAIBAJ&hl=fr&pg=6521,3580499

So that's just one game, but it was a SC Final one and most likely he went against Morenz? Regardless, at least it's something, and the quote is quite strong.

Edit:

Also from Game 2:

Frederickson got the puck from the faceoff, but was blocked by Canadiens' defence.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Fu0tAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yosFAAAAIBAJ&hl=fr&pg=6585,2855778

 

[BenchBrawl]

AST Competition (Fredrickson vs. Kopitar)

This bothered me so I had to investigate a bit.

Kopitar's AST record as it is, including those in which he received just one vote:

3, 6, 6, 8, 11

In three of those years he received 1, 3 and 6 votes total respectively (11th, 8th, 6th).So for three of his five AST finishes which my methodologies are about to give a big boost, their original existence depends on those silly amount of votes.

Here's Kopitar's AST record if you take out all european centers who got voted higher than him in any given year:

3, 4, 6, 7, 7

Here's Kopitar's AST record if you take out all european centers and every other centers that weren't drafted higher than him in ATD2017 except Getzlaf because it's arguable who's better in an ATD sense (which effectively leaves Crosby, Thornton, Getzlaf, Toews and Bergeron as his only competition):

3, 3, 4, 4, (4/5)

Here's the attempt I made earlier of coming up with a consolidated AST record for Fredrickson:

1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

This is the absolute best case scenario for Kopitar, unless he would have been voted in in the years where he didn't receive any AST votes.But then I didn't give anything to Fredrickson for 21-22 despite him making the 1st PCHA AST as a sub.Don't forget how weak of a foundation Kopitar's hypothetical case-by-substraction got constructed from:

-A 6th place got turned into a 3rd place and the 6th place was based on 3 votes total.
-An 8th place got turned into a 4th place and the 8th place was based on 6 votes total.
-An 11th place got turned into a 4th/5th place and the 11th place was based on 1 vote total.

Fredrickson's competition of Morenz, Nighbor, Lalonde, Malone, Stewart, Mackay and Keats is significantly stronger than Crosby, Thornton, Getzlaf, Toews and Bergeron, even if you adjust for the fact that some of those weren't playing or past their prime in some years of Fredrickson's prime (details below).In most of Kopitar's prime Thornton was not that strong anymore (and then he spiked in 15-16).Fredrickson still has a better record year-by-year, and has an extra year too.

Years in which Fredrickson's competition played, their age between brackets.

1921 | Fredrickson (3rd?) | | Nighbor(28) | Lalonde(33) | Malone(30) | | Mackay(26) |
1922 | Fredrickson | | Nighbor(29) | Lalonde(34) | Malone(31) | | Mackay(27) | Keats(26)
1923 | Fredrickson (1st?) | | Nighbor(30) | Lalonde(35) | Malone(32) | | Mackay(28) | Keats(27)
1924 | Fredrickson (2nd?) | Morenz(21) | Nighbor(31) | Lalonde(36) | Malone(33) | | Mackay(29) | Keats(28)
1925 | Fredrickson (5th?) | Morenz(22) | Nighbor(32) | Lalonde(37) | | | Mackay(30) | Keats(29)
1926 | Fredrickson (4th?) | Morenz(23) | Nighbor(33) | | | Stewart(23) | Mackay(31) | Keats(30)
1927 | Fredrickson (1st?) | Morenz(25) | Nighbor(34) | | | Stewart(24)| Mackay(32) | Keats(31)

-------------------------------------

We can try to do it the other way, by multiplying Fredrickson's finishes (and thus pretending like we're adding players and competition to his era).I'll try various methodologies for the heck of it:

Fredrickson's re-constructed AST record: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

[2x] for all xth (except for his best season, which we can call an outlier year): 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10

[2x -1] for all xth: 1, 1, 3, 5, 7, 9

[2x -1], [2x] in sequence: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 10

[2x - (x/2)] except best season: 1, (1/2), 3, (4/5), 6, (7/8)

Average of all of the above: 1, (1/2), 3, 5, 6, 8

Comparing with Kopitar's record: 3, 6, 6, 8, 11

No matter how we do it, Fredrickson is clearly ahead.And if we multiply his record, we're stating that his competition becomes stronger, which I think is already on par with Kopitar's without touching anything.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here's the attempt I made earlier of coming up with a consolidated AST record for Fredrickson:

1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

This is the absolute best case scenario for Kopitar, unless he would have been voted in in the years where he didn't receive any AST votes.But then I didn't give anything to Fredrickson for 21-22 despite him making the 1st PCHA AST as a sub.Don't forget how weak of a foundation Kopitar's hypothetical case-by-substraction got constructed from:

-A 6th place got turned into a 3rd place and the 6th place was based on 3 votes total.
-An 8th place got turned into a 4th place and the 8th place was based on 6 votes total.
-An 11th place got turned into a 4th/5th place and the 11th place was based on 1 vote total.

Fredrickson's competition of Morenz, Nighbor, Lalonde, Malone, Stewart, Mackay and Keats is significantly stronger than Crosby, Thornton, Getzlaf, Toews and Bergeron, even if you adjust for the fact that some of those weren't playing or past their prime in some years of Fredrickson's prime.In most of Kopitar's prime Thornton was not that strong anymore (and then he spiked in 15-16).Fredrickson still has a better record year-by-year, and has an extra year too.

-------------------------------------

We can try to do it the other way, by multiplying Fredrickson's finishes (and thus pretending like we're adding players and competition):

Fredrickson's re-constructed AST record: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

(2x) for all xth (except for his best season, which we can call an outlier year): 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10

(2x -1) for all xth place: 1, 1, 3, 5, 7, 9

(2x -1), (2x), (2x -1), (2x) in sequence for all xth place: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 10

(2x - (x/2)) for all xth place except best season: 1, (1/2), 3, (4/5), 6, (7/8)

Comparing with Kopitar's record: 3, 6, 6, 8, 11

No matter how we do it, Fredrickson is clearly ahead.And if we multiply his record, we're stating that his competition becomes stronger, which I think is already on par with Kopitar's without touching anything.

Appreciate all the effort in breaking down the AS records for these guys, but this AS record for Fredrickson doesn't pass the smell test...it's almost as good as Trottier's:

Fredrickson: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Trottier: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4


As I said previously, I am in agreement that Fredrickson>Kopitar, but I think Kopitar is better suited to face ATD scoring lines because of his superior defense.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Appreciate all the effort in breaking down the AS records for these guys, but this AS record for Fredrickson doesn't pass the smell test...it's almost as good as Trottier's:

Fredrickson: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Trottier: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4

Joe Thornton's AST record is better than Trottier's:

1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 9, 10
1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4

If Thornton played in Fredrickson's era and I came up with this AST record, you would say that it doesn't pass the smell test.

The only thing it proves is that AST record isn't the end-all be-all of a player's evaluation.

There's no reason to think Fredrickson was ranking significantly worst than Trottier compared to his peers in his best years.OTOH, Trottier brings a complete game and is a major playoff performer, and is better offensively.In the end AST is like Top 10 finishes, it's not a quantitative measure like VsX.

You can enumerate which centers you think should go before Fredrickson in every year, or offer a methodology (to change his record) you think is more appropriate.Until you do either one of these things, your rebuttal is empty.The strenght of my attempted consolidated AST record for Fredrickson is backed by his PCHA/WCHL/WHL/Hart finishes, his big star power found in various sources, as well as his likely competition in every year and the stats to some degree.

As I said previously, I am in agreement that Fredrickson>Kopitar, but I think Kopitar is better suited to face ATD scoring lines because of his superior defense.

Maybe, but Montreal is build for a power vs. power confrontation.I don't need Fredrickson to be a shutdown center.I only need him to be competent, and to provide a lot of offensive depth.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Apologies for the lack of posts, this weekend ended up being much busier than I thought. Since voting will start soon I will give a brief summary of why I think Chicago will win the series...


One-Two Punch vs. Big Line and Bottom 6 Flexibility
This is a scenario that Chicago is familiar with, and Chicago's 2 deadly scoring lines have been one of the main reasons this team has made it to the Finals. BB has addressed this previously, but only mentioned the D pairings that he would prefer to face Chicago's top lines. The forward lines were not discussed. Montreal's top line is strong and up to the task, but that line can't face both Chicago's 1st and 2nd lines, and Chicago will have a large advantage when one of its scoring lines is not facing Montreal's top line. The 2nd lines have already been compared, and Montreal's 3rd and 4th lines are not good enough defensively to handle either of the Apps-Denneny or Datsyuk-Makarov combos. Chicago's best offensive defenseman, Harry Cameron, is not on their shutdown pair, so most of the time he will be on the ice to further exploit this mismatch.

Chicago, on the other hand, is set up well to defend against Montreal's big line... While I am in agreement that Montreal's Harvey-Weber pairing is superior to Chicago's Conacher-Chelios pairing overall, I do not think that is the case when looking at defensive ability. Harvey and Chelios are both among the uber-elite all time defensively, but Conacher is better defensively than Weber, Montreal's edge comes when looking at offense. In terms of shutting down Montreal's top line, Chicago has a very strong shutdown pair to throw at them. Furthermore, Chicago's 3rd and 4th lines are both strong defensively, with centers (Kopitar/Sutter) that are very good/good defensively themselves and also have the size and physicality to play against a player like Trottier. If Bernie Geoffrion is playing well, Chicago has the option of using the same lineup that was effective in beating Gordie Howe...move Nesterenko to LW on the 3rd line with Damphousse/Sutter as 4th line center, and John MacLean as 4th line RW. This way both the 3rd and 4th lines have a strong checking LWer to help check Geoffrion (if necessary). Chicago would also be fine with their 2nd line facing the Trottier line...the combination of Datsyuk backed up by Conacher-Chelios will be very tough defensively and Makarov as likely the best offensive player in the series (close between him and Apps) is a killer in transition with his speed and high skill level, which is a threat Montreal will have to be aware of and will no doubt affect their offensive game.

Montreal's 3rd and 4th lines don't offer near the flexibility that Chicago's do, as they are not as good defensively, and cannot be trusted to effectively face either of Chicago's top 2 lines. The one matchup Chicago wants to avoid is 1st line vs. 1st line, and since Chicago is comfortable with any of its other lines facing Montreal's best, it should make it easy to avoid that 1st line vs. 1st line matchup, and therefore get Chicago's 1st line plenty of time against Montreal's 2nd-4th lines where they hold a distinct advantage.

Further, it has been shown that in real life Arbour liked to roll 4 lines. So in addition to the difficulties related to the matchups previously discussed, Montreal's 4th line being made up of specialists presents another challenge for Arbour as he will not be able to roll 4 lines as he is accustomed.


Summary
When going player by player Montreal has the better lineup, but with Chicago's 1-2 scoring line punch and strong defensive bottom six forwards, they have the weapons and lineup flexibility to present difficult matchups for Montreal. It is unavoidable that one of Chicago's top 2 lines will regularly be on the ice against one of Montreal's 2nd/3rd/4th lines, and this will be a large advantage for Chicago. I believe that Chicago is better equipped to defend against Montreal's strengths and exploit Montreal's weaknesses than Montreal is equipped to do the same to Chicago.




Thanks again to BB for doing a great deal of the posting for this series. I apologize for not being available more, I wish I had more time. That being said I still think we got some good discussion in, and happy to see things remained civil on the points we disagreed on.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Voted.

Good luck boys may the best man win.

 

[Theokritos]

Canadiens defeat Shamrocks in 7 games. Congratulations to BenchBrawl for winning the 2017 ATD.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Wow! I'm honored to win the ATD again.I want to congratulate Hawkey Town 18 for building a very solid team that definitely had me worried all series long.I also want to congratulate my previous opponents, whom for my money were all worthy contenders for the title, just like Chicago was.It was a crazy run of opponents.

Also, thanks to everyone who continued reading and voting even though we're deep in June.Not the time or place for this, but the ATD should really end somewhere around May.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Congratulations on the second title in your history, Reen. I really feel like Arbour may have been the key pick for you getting past me, and eventually winning it all. I cant be the only one who really liked the Arbour-Trottier-Harvey-Boom Boom connection.

 

[Iceman]

Well fought, congrats BenchBrawl!

 

[BenchBrawl]

Congratulations on the second title in your history, Reen. I really feel like Arbour may have been the key pick for you getting past me, and eventually winning it all. I cant be the only one who really liked the Arbour-Trottier-Harvey-Boom Boom connection.

Thanks, man.Don't know if Arbour was the key pick of the draft for me, but I can't think of any other coach who would fit better.I was lucky to get him.

Well fought, congrats BenchBrawl!

Thanks! I appreciate it.

 

[Dreakmur]

Congrats BB. This was the best team this year.

Congratulations on the second title in your history, Reen. I really feel like Arbour may have been the key pick for you getting past me, and eventually winning it all. I cant be the only one who really liked the Arbour-Trottier-Harvey-Boom Boom connection.

The key to this win were his trades. I said it in January - he traded his way to an ATD championship.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Congrats BB. This was the best team this year.

Thanks.

The key to this win were his trades. I said it in January - he traded his way to an ATD championship.

I agree I've made some good trades, but they were in response to horrible trades I did, not to get ahead.Here's the overall impact of the trades you're talking about (initial is after the minor 3rd -> 5th swap I did with JFA, which is irrelevent):

7 first picks: Initial vs. After the trades

5, 46, 48, 98, 103, 148, 153 (initial)
5, 39, 62, 112, 131, 148, 153 (after trades)
0, +7, -14, -14, -28, 0, 0

I disagree that this is "trading his way to a championship".Looking at the numbers it seems like I severely mismanaged my assets.I rose 7 spots with my 2nd rounder, but then fell 14 spots with my 3rd rounder, 14 spots with my 4th rounder and 28 spots with my 5th rounder (without gaining anything significant later).This is actually incredible.This looks more like trading his way to last place than to a championship.

The reason this bad asset management didn't hurt me is because I picked Brimsek at 112th and Weber at 131th.Brimsek's value as a goalie is a bit parallel/independent to the value of skaters, so I "erased" the 98th vs 112th difference with this move.With Weber, it was just a good value pick.Weber isn't significantly weaker than any defenseman available at 103th, so I erased the loss of value there again.

Obviously, I was almost certain I'd get Trottier when I traded Messier for the 39th pick and more, so in that sense it's not as bad as it looks.But remember that I could've gotten Trottier from 46 just as easily without overpaying as much as I did when I traded up for Messier.

Overall, I think my trades played a part in my victory, but not more than my drafting or me showing up in each series (or just plain luck too).

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Congrats BB! You built a great team and are a worthy Champion. I'm honored to have made it this far.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Congrats BB! You built a great team and are a worthy Champion. I'm honored to have made it this far.

Thanks, you also build a great team that would have been worthy of winning it all.I feel it's just a matter of time before you win this thing considering you draft one great team after another every year.

 

[tinyzombies]

Congratulations. This was an absolute blast.

One question, if this is a playoff tourney, then playoff players should get more prominence. I think you guys do that in your explanations. But what about home ice advantage? A series that was this close might be altered when you bring that into the equation. Then coaches would take on even more significance.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Congratulations. This was an absolute blast.

One question, if this is a playoff tourney, then playoff players should get more prominence. I think you guys do that in your explanations. But what about home ice advantage? A series that was this close might be altered when you bring that into the equation. Then coaches would take on even more significance.

With the hidden seedings experiment this year there was no way to do that without giving it away.

I'm curious to see the seedings when they get released

 

[tinyzombies]

With the hidden seedings experiment this year there was no way to do that without giving it away.

I'm curious to see the seedings when they get released

Just saying it's hard to predict in a series as close as this one if you don't know who has "home ice" because of matchups.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Congrats of course to BenchBrawl for an outstanding draft