Prospect Info: Assessing the Jets drafting success

[Whileee]

Much has been said about the Jets' "draft and develop" strategy. Obviously, that relies heavily on drafting more successfully than most other NHL franchises. So, as we make our way through the fourth pre-season, how does the Jets draft success compare to other franchises over the past four drafts? This assessment doesn't take into account the draft position, but rather the overall quality and quantity of the players they have drafted.

To recap, some key draft picks in the past 4 years:

2011
Scheifele
Lowry

2012
Trouba
Kosmachuk
Hellebuyck

2013
Morrissey
Petan
Comrie
Copp
Lipon
Kichton
(Lodge, Kostalek)

2014
Ehlers
Glover
De Leo

How many NHL teams have drafted a more promising group of prospects in terms of quality / quantity? Which teams are those and who are their key draftees?

Click to read more...

 

[Bob E]

In past 4 years, there are very few teams that have seen drafted players play a significant number of games in the NHL. Jets have done reasonably well to have two guys (Scheifele, Trouba) play over 50 gms. Only teams like Colorado (MacKinnon, Landeskog) or Oilers (Nuge and Yak) have introduced more impactful young players into their line-ups, IMO.

And a team like Anaheim seems to be adding more quantity of picks that are playing in the NHL now, and will see their game numbers increase.

Rest are lucky to have added one guy of any substance. May have to wait a year or two.

 

[AWSAA]

In past 4 years, there are very few teams that have seen drafted players play a significant number of games in the NHL. Jets have done reasonably well to have two guys (Scheifele, Trouba) play over 50 gms. Only teams like Colorado (MacKinnon, Landeskog) or Oilers (Nuge and Yak) have introduced more impactful young players into their line-ups, IMO.

And a team like Anaheim seems to be adding more quantity of picks that are playing in the NHL now, and will see their game numbers increase.

Rest are lucky to have added one guy of any substance. May have to wait a year or two.

Two of Chicago's have already won the Cup (Saad & Shaw). Teravainen's supposed to be coming in this year. They're going to be good for a long time if they can keep drafting pieces like that while being a top contender.

 

[garret9]

According to some scouts, many teams.

It's highly subjective IMO.

 

[Sweech]

Across the last 4 drafts (50 NHL games):

Anaheim - Lindholm
Arizona -
Boston - Hamilton
Buffalo - Girgensons
Calgary - Baertschi, Monahan
Carolina - Murphy, Lindholm
Chicago - Saad, Shaw
Colorado - Landeskog, MacKinnon
Columbus - Jenner, Murray
Dallas - Nichushkin
Detroit -
Edmonton - Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov
Florida - Huberdeau, Barkov
LA - Pearson (plus playoffs)
Minnesota - Brodin
Montreal - Galchenyuk
Nashville - Jones
New Jersey - Larsson
NYI -
NYR - Miller
Ottawa - Zibanejad, Ceci (49 games)
Philadelphia - Couturier
Pittsburgh - Maatta
San Jose - Nieto, Hertl (only 37, but would have played the full season if not for injury)
St. Louis -
Tampa Bay - Kucherov, Palat
Toronto - Rielly
Vancouver -
Washington - Wilson
Winnipeg - Scheifele, Trouba


It's still way too early to say who has done well across these drafts.

 

[truck]

In past 4 years, there are very few teams that have seen drafted players play a significant number of games in the NHL. Jets have done reasonably well to have two guys (Scheifele, Trouba) play over 50 gms. Only teams like Colorado (MacKinnon, Landeskog) or Oilers (Nuge and Yak) have introduced more impactful young players into their line-ups, IMO.

And a team like Anaheim seems to be adding more quantity of picks that are playing in the NHL now, and will see their game numbers increase.

Rest are lucky to have added one guy of any substance. May have to wait a year or two.

For reference...

Teams with 2 players over 50 games:
Carolina: Lindholm, Murphy
Florida: Huberdeau, Barkov
Tampa: Kucherov, Palat
Flames: Baertschi, Monahan
Avs: Landeskog, MacKinnon
Edm: Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov
CBJ: Murray, Jenner
Sharks: Nieto, Hertl (37 GP due to injury)
Ottawa: Zibanejad, Ceci (49 GP)
Hawks: Saad, Shaw
Jets: Scheif, Trouba

Edit

I am behind.

 

[garret9]

Across the last 4 drafts (50 NHL games):

Anaheim - Lindholm
Arizona -
Boston - Hamilton
Buffalo - Girgensons
Calgary - Baertschi, Monahan
Carolina - Murphy, Lindholm
Chicago - Saad, Shaw
Colorado - Landeskog, MacKinnon
Columbus - Jenner, Murray
Dallas - Nichushkin
Detroit -
Edmonton - Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov
Florida - Huberdeau, Barkov
LA - Pearson (plus playoffs)
Minnesota - Brodin
Montreal - Galchenyuk
Nashville - Jones
New Jersey - Larsson
NYI -
NYR - Miller
Ottawa - Zibanejad, Ceci (49 games)
Philadelphia - Couturier
Pittsburgh - Maatta
San Jose - Nieto, Hertl (only 37, but would have played the full season if not for injury)
St. Louis -
Tampa Bay - Kucherov, Palat
Toronto - Rielly
Vancouver -
Washington - Wilson
Winnipeg - Scheifele, Trouba


It's still way too early to say who has done well across these drafts.

Then you have to take into account the comparative advantage of picking in one spot over the other.
The Jets avg draft spot is better than many of those teams.

Then add in "luck"; ie the variables no one controls that makes players end up being more successful that no one expected.
Example: is Detroit really smart for drafting Datsyuk so late? or are they lucky since they chose a ton of guys earlier that they viewed as better but busted

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Much has been said about the Jets' "draft and develop" strategy. Obviously, that relies heavily on drafting more successfully than most other NHL franchises. So, as we make our way through the fourth pre-season, how does the Jets draft success compare to other franchises over the past four drafts? This assessment doesn't take into account the draft position, but rather the overall quality and quantity of the players they have drafted.

To recap, some key draft picks in the past 4 years:

2011
Scheifele
Lowry

2012
Trouba
Kosmachuk
Hellebuyck

2013
Morrissey
Petan
Comrie
Copp
Lipon
Kichton
(Lodge, Kostalek)

2014
Ehlers
Glover
De Leo

How many NHL teams have drafted a more promising group of prospects in terms of quality / quantity? Which teams are those and who are their key draftees?

Hard to say. The NYI have taken:
2011
Ryan Strome
Scott Mayfield
Johan Sundstrom

2012
Griffin Reinhart
Ville Pokka
Adam Pelech

2013
Ryan Pulock

2014
Michael Dal Colle
Josh Ho Sang
Ilya Sorokin (G)
Linus Soderstrom (G)
Devon Toews

The first rounders look pretty good and so do a few of the later picks. They've taken quite a few goalies who are hard to rate. It is a lot of work just to make up a list like that let alone familiarizing yourself with all those prospects. It makes a relative rating like you ask for into a pretty big job. Suffice it to say that the Jets have drafted well.

Edmonton is the team that has consistently drafted highest over that period and they don't appear to have done particularly well although some of their later round picks helped beat us last night. Florida has also drafted high and I don't think they have done as well as the Jets either.

Drafting 'better' than the opposition as opposed to drafting more still relies on 1 or both of 2 things. 1 is the obvious drafting earlier. Eventually you lose that advantage as the team improves. As it probably would have already with a real NHL goalie. 2 is by finding picks who, for one reason or another have fallen below the level their future value warrants. It, in turn requires both of 2 things. Those drafting ahead of you have to first pass on these 'bonus value' picks for them to be available to you and you need to be smart enough or good enough to find that value. If that is your plan to get ahead you must continue to do those things over an extended period of time. Doing it for 4 years is not enough.

Chevy and his team have drafted well so far. How well still remains to be seen. We are now on the verge of getting our first team member from after the first round. Predictably, he comes from the first of those 4 drafts. No other player from that draft is going to make it. Most people seem to agree that he will top out in the bottom 6 although he may climb higher than that. 2 players, 1 top 6 & 1 bottom 6 would be about average performance so far. It now looks like no other pick is going to make it this year including our 2 most recent 1st round picks. Next year may see a larger number of picks make the team .... or not.

You framed your post as something of a challenge. What's your point?

 

[garret9]

For fun:

Pronman looked to see if teams tended to consistently beat or lose the expected value relative to draft position...
He did the above experiment for point totals, points per game, and games played... all with similar results...

This doesn't mean there isn't skill.
What it means is there's a lot of randomness and noise in the draft, which could make any conclusion actually false.

 

[ps241]

Then you have to take into account the comparative advantage of picking in one spot over the other.
The Jets avg draft spot is better than many of those teams.

Then add in "luck"; ie the variables no one controls that makes players end up being more successful that no one expected.
Example: is Detroit really smart for drafting Datsyuk so late? or are they lucky since they chose a ton of guys earlier that they viewed as better but busted

Say what you will but luck is still a huge factor. Case in point, it would be great to say Boston was brilliant for drafting Patrice Bergeron in the 2nd round but the guy they drafted ahead of him in the first round was Mark Stuart . Also amazing they got Lucic at #50 and Marchand at #71 in the 2006 draft but he they took Yuri Alexandrov ahead of both of them that year.

Holland even said if we were such geniuses then I think we would have grabbed up Pavel allot earlier.

 

[Whileee]

Then you have to take into account the comparative advantage of picking in one spot over the other.
The Jets avg draft spot is better than many of those teams.

Then add in "luck"; ie the variables no one controls that makes players end up being more successful that no one expected.
Example: is Detroit really smart for drafting Datsyuk so late? or are they lucky since they chose a ton of guys earlier that they viewed as better but busted

I agree with this, but I wasn't focusing so much on the drafting acumen of the Jets, just the results. In other words, regardless of which teams drafted where, are the Jets further ahead or further behind other NHL franchises in terms of players added to the organization via the draft?

Although it is still too early to say for sure, my own sense is that they are in a top grouping. It could be luck. It could be having better pick slots than some franchises. It could be having more picks (like in 2013). But ultimately, the Jets will only move ahead relative to other teams in a draft and develop approach if they draft better quality and quantity.

 

[garret9]

I agree with this, but I wasn't focusing so much on the drafting acumen of the Jets, just the results. In other words, regardless of which teams drafted where, are the Jets further ahead or further behind other NHL franchises in terms of players added to the organization via the draft?

Although it is still too early to say for sure, my own sense is that they are in a top grouping. It could be luck. It could be having better pick slots than some franchises. It could be having more picks (like in 2013). But ultimately, the Jets will only move ahead relative to other teams in a draft and develop approach if they draft better quality and quantity.

My opinion:

They are ahead and it's a combo of all of the above...

Just an opinion though.

 

[Whileee]

My opinion:

They are ahead and it's a combo of all of the above...

Just an opinion though.

That's my general opinion, too.

Scheifele - they showed a bit of courage to take a rising but late developing prospect.
Trouba - solid guy - maybe got lucky that he's better than even they hoped.
Morrissey - again, a bit of courage to take skill / hockey sense.
Ehlers - too early to say, but might be a bit of luck if he turns into a dynamic player.

If they've done anything to exploit inefficiencies it might be that they haven't been too shy to draft skill over size (Morrissey, Petan, Ehlers). Also, they haven't been shy about drafting over-agers. I wonder if that might be another group of players that are undervalued in later rounds.

I still think they were strategic in accumulating picks in 2013. I seem to recall Chevy commenting on how vigourously they scouted that draft because of their high number of early picks and the presumed strength.

 

[Bob E]

Two of Chicago's have already won the Cup (Saad & Shaw). Teravainen's supposed to be coming in this year. They're going to be good for a long time if they can keep drafting pieces like that while being a top contender.

That's true. But I would put Scheifele and Troubs ahead of Saad and Shaw, in terms of long-term impact to their respective line ups. Though I really like Saad.

TT might be great, but so could Ehlers. So as of now, I only see a few teams doing better than Jets, and they drafted 1st or 2nd overall to get there. That all could change dramatically in a year or two once more prospects make it.

 

[garret9]

There's a lot of unknowns and butterfly effects too because every choice is affected by every team's choice prior.

Let's say you list players A, B, C, D in that order of skill.
The three before you select A, B then D.
You pick B.
B ends up being better than D... you look good because D was selected before you and your guy is better.
C ends up being better than B... you look fine as C was selected before, even though you evaluated C as worse and would not have picked them if they were both available.
etc. etc.

You know of all of this though.

 

[CaptainChef]

That's my general opinion, too.

Scheifele - they showed a bit of courage to take a rising but late developing prospect.
Trouba - solid guy - maybe got lucky that he's better than even they hoped.
Morrissey - again, a bit of courage to take skill / hockey sense.
Ehlers - too early to say, but might be a bit of luck if he turns into a dynamic player.

If they've done anything to exploit inefficiencies it might be that they haven't been too shy to draft skill over size (Morrissey, Petan, Ehlers). Also, they haven't been shy about drafting over-agers. I wonder if that might be another group of players that are undervalued in later rounds.

I still think they were strategic in accumulating picks in 2013. I seem to recall Chevy commenting on how vigourously they scouted that draft because of their high number of early picks and the presumed strength.

Good. I agree on all -- they have probably better than most it would seem but that still remains to be seen (most of their top notch prospects could still bust). Just happy to see you acknowledge that a bit of luck was involved in that guys like Trouba and Ehlers were even available when they were because this was a topic of discussion just a short while ago and the poster would not acknowledge that luck came into play.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's my general opinion, too.

Scheifele - they showed a bit of courage to take a rising but late developing prospect.
Trouba - solid guy - maybe got lucky that he's better than even they hoped.
Morrissey - again, a bit of courage to take skill / hockey sense.
Ehlers - too early to say, but might be a bit of luck if he turns into a dynamic player.

If they've done anything to exploit inefficiencies it might be that they haven't been too shy to draft skill over size (Morrissey, Petan, Ehlers). Also, they haven't been shy about drafting over-agers. I wonder if that might be another group of players that are undervalued in later rounds.

I still think they were strategic in accumulating picks in 2013. I seem to recall Chevy commenting on how vigourously they scouted that draft because of their high number of early picks and the presumed strength.

I agree, particularly with the bolded. I think it is human nature to be influenced by what others have done. If a player was previously passed over or drafted but not signed it takes confidence in your own assessment to go counter to that.