Around the League 2017-18

[ps241]

Thanks, that confirms what I thought. With the assumption that there will be an opt out, I will have a very difficult decision to make come April 2020 when our group's TPA comes up for renewal. The thought of committing to this team for another 5 years, and paying out thousands of dollars to just sit in their bank account while potentially that entire first season goes by with no hockey... I'm not sure I can do that. It might be enough to make me walk away for good. WSO, RWB, Virtuosi kept us happily occupied during the winter months before the Jets returned, and I'm sure they could do so again. And I never once felt the urge to boo during their performances.

I am digging it nobody important......your are part Fraser and Niles and part Martin.....All good points about the booing but I have yet to nap at a Jets game .... always trade offs in life and all of these entertainment options can certainly use your hard earned money.

I look at the work stoppages as a bit of a annoying necessary evil. We are the smallest of markets and without the fight the NHL wouldn't exist in our market. Next time I will just tune out the noise and not follow the negotiations.

 

[nobody important]

I am digging it nobody important......your are part Fraser and Niles and part Martin.....All good points about the booing but I have yet to nap at a Jets game .... always trade offs in life and all of these entertainment options can certainly use your hard earned money.

I look at the work stoppages as a bit of a annoying necessary evil. We are the smallest of markets and without the fight the NHL wouldn't exist in our market. Next time I will just tune out the noise and not follow the negotiations.

I never thought about it but now that you mention it, that's an amazingly good description of my persona. Maybe with some Norm thrown in.

And yes, there was always the risk of nodding off at some of those events. I don't think I ever truly fell asleep and had to be nudged awake because I was snoring, but it was close.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In the grand scheme of things there are very few players with significant lock out protection built in. It is something that is reserved for the games stars and upper echelon players. Players who aren't nearly as hurt by a lockout anyhow. Lockouts substantially hurt the NHLPA's middle and journeyman class. The ones who have finite (4 to 5 year careers) that make anywhere from league minimum to 4 million year. These players almost never have the bargaining power to get lockout protection. They however likely make up 60 to 70% of the union and as such have significant influence in the process. I think it's why there are some cracks forming in the PA these days, certain segments aren't agreeing on things.

The thing is that it is becoming a lot more common as the opt out date approaches. If it becomes a situation where 20 of the teams are looking at paying 15+ mil in signing bonuses to their top 2-4 players it affects the willingness of a voting majority of owners to accept a lockout. In the past the NHL has been too easily willing to shut it down rather than compromise. Particularly at a time when the issues are not so large and clear as they have been in the past they are a lot more likely to reach a settlement without disrupting the schedule than they have been in the past.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The thing is that it is becoming a lot more common as the opt out date approaches. If it becomes a situation where 20 of the teams are looking at paying 15+ mil in signing bonuses to their top 2-4 players it affects the willingness of a voting majority of owners to accept a lockout. In the past the NHL has been too easily willing to shut it down rather than compromise. Particularly at a time when the issues are not so large and clear as they have been in the past they are a lot more likely to reach a settlement without disrupting the schedule than they have been in the past.

There is still no doubt in my mind that if there is an opt out or even if and when the "CBA expires" that the league will not begin the season. They will lock out the players.They will not give the players the option of going on strike 3/4 of the way through the season.

One can only hope they make a serious attempt (both sides) to reaching an agreement before sept 15 which would be the only way to prevent a work stoppage IMO

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There is still no doubt in my mind that if there is an opt out or even if and when the "CBA expires" that the league will not begin the season. They will lock out the players.They will not give the players the option of going on strike 3/4 of the way through the season.

One can only hope they make a serious attempt (both sides) to reaching an agreement before sept 15 which would be the only way to prevent a work stoppage IMO

I don't dispute that there will be an opt out. I really have little idea one way or another. It is a work stoppage I am skeptical of. There needs to be a major monetary reason for a work stoppage. Nothing else will do that.

The players (workers?) have always been strongly motivated to avoid a work stoppage of any kind. The owners much less so. While they lose their revenue they also lose their expenses. What I am pointing to here is that the lockout protection being built in to some contracts gives the owners greater reason to avoid the work stoppage. We can debate the magnitude of that effect but it is undeniably there. The cost to the owners of a lockout has gone up. It should help to avoid a future work stoppage. It is the unintended positive consequence.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I don't dispute that there will be an opt out. I really have little idea one way or another. It is a work stoppage I am skeptical of. There needs to be a major monetary reason for a work stoppage. Nothing else will do that.

The players (workers?) have always been strongly motivated to avoid a work stoppage of any kind. The owners much less so. While they lose their revenue they also lose their expenses. What I am pointing to here is that the lockout protection being built in to some contracts gives the owners greater reason to avoid the work stoppage. We can debate the magnitude of that effect but it is undeniably there. The cost to the owners of a lockout has gone up. It should help to avoid a future work stoppage. It is the unintended positive consequence.

You can say that it doesn't make sense and very few would not agree with that. It didn't make sense last time. Many people predicted fairly accurately what a settlement would look like last time. Except it took half a season for them to come to their senses

Based on the past this is what I predict

Both sides will begin with extreme positions and.

1) No real negotiation will begin until the sept 15 deadline approaches.

2) If one side or the other believes they will gain an advantage after sept 15 there will be no settlement before the lockout.



Your belief that there will be no opt out seems to be based on nothing but faith.

Insiders who have connection inside the NHLPA are saying they fully expect the PA to opt out early.

They may not even get the chance. The league might beat them to the punch. They may want to do it early simply because not doing it will mean 2 more years of "extreme signing bonus contracts"

 

[ps241]

You can say that it doesn't make sense and very few would not agree with that. It didn't make sense last time. Many people predicted fairly accurately what a settlement would look like last time. Except it took half a season for them to come to their senses

Based on the past this is what I predict

Both sides will begin with extreme positions and.

1) No real negotiation will begin until the sept 15 deadline approaches.

2) If one side or the other believes they will gain an advantage after sept 15 there will be no settlement before the lockout.



Your belief that there will be no opt out seems to be based on nothing but faith.

Insiders who have connection inside the NHLPA are saying they fully expect the PA to opt out early.

They may not even get the chance. The league might beat them to the punch. They may want to do it early simply because not doing it will mean 2 more years of "extreme signing bonus contracts"

It will be interesting to see once the Olympics come and go if cooler heads prevail but yea the sides do not get along. The biggest issue last time was 50-50 and I understand why that was tough to do. I am not sure they have as far to move this time to get to a deal done but one never knows until we get closer.

I do see a work stoppage though because that is the way they roll.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can say that it doesn't make sense and very few would not agree with that. It didn't make sense last time. Many people predicted fairly accurately what a settlement would look like last time. Except it took half a season for them to come to their senses

Based on the past this is what I predict

Both sides will begin with extreme positions and.

1) No real negotiation will begin until the sept 15 deadline approaches.

2) If one side or the other believes they will gain an advantage after sept 15 there will be no settlement before the lockout.



Your belief that there will be no opt out seems to be based on nothing but faith.

Insiders who have connection inside the NHLPA are saying they fully expect the PA to opt out early.

They may not even get the chance. The league might beat them to the punch. They may want to do it early simply because not doing it will mean 2 more years of "extreme signing bonus contracts"

First, reread my post. I didn't say there would be no opt out. I said I don't know about that one way or another. Do these "insiders" give any kind of good reason why they believe the PA will opt out?

You are completely ignoring the point I am suggesting here. You haven't responded in any way to the reason for my post. I am suggesting that there has been a shift in the balance of motivations between the 2 sides. In the past the owners have had very little financial incentive to avoid a work stoppage. They now have more. How significant that change is could be debated. In the end we will get to see its effect.

I am skeptical about a work stoppage because there is no monetary issue right now where either side stands to make a big gain. Unless one side or the other creates an issue sometime in the next 3 years, like the players demanding 55% of HRR, for example, there is nothing to justify disrupting the season.

Previous lockouts/strikes have all had 1 big issue to fight over that involved a lot of money. No one ever has a work stoppage without that.

 

[Aavco Cup]

First, reread my post. I didn't say there would be no opt out. I said I don't know about that one way or another. Do these "insiders" give any kind of good reason why they believe the PA will opt out?

You are completely ignoring the point I am suggesting here. You haven't responded in any way to the reason for my post. I am suggesting that there has been a shift in the balance of motivations between the 2 sides. In the past the owners have had very little financial incentive to avoid a work stoppage. They now have more. How significant that change is could be debated. In the end we will get to see its effect.

I am skeptical about a work stoppage because there is no monetary issue right now where either side stands to make a big gain. Unless one side or the other creates an issue sometime in the next 3 years, like the players demanding 55% of HRR, for example, there is nothing to justify disrupting the season.

Previous lockouts/strikes have all had 1 big issue to fight over that involved a lot of money. No one ever has a work stoppage without that.

They asked people inside the NHLPA. You seem very reluctant to listen to what they said.

I believe the players want escrow dealt with ASAP. It's likely to be their #1 issue AFAIK.

Like I said logic usually dosn't prevail when it comes to NHL bargaining. I expect it to follow the familiar path leading to a lockout. I hope I'm wrong.

BTW I did respond. I suggested the NhL may actually be the party who opts out to prevent 2 extra years of huge SB contracts.

Once notice is given, the league will not allow the 2020 season to begin and risk the players going on strike mid or late season.

 

[KingBogo]

They asked people inside the NHLPA. You seem very reluctant to listen to what they said.

I believe the players want escrow dealt with ASAP. It's likely to be their #1 issue AFAIK.

Like I said logic usually dosn't prevail when it comes to NHL bargaining. I expect it to follow the familiar path leading to a lockout. I hope I'm wrong.

BTW I did respond. I suggested the NhL may actually be the party who opts out to prevent 2 extra years of huge SB contracts.

Once notice is given, the league will not allow the 2020 season to begin and risk the players going on strike mid or late season.

Yep. Fehr played that card already and MLB lost their playoffs and World Series. No league will ever put itself in that position again. Especially with the same guy at the head of the NHLPA.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Another lockout will hurt the league.
Both sides eventually have to realize this.
Marginal markets will only get worse.
I like capitalism but when is enough truly enough?

 

[Daximus]

Players want escrow fixed.

League wants to tweak NMC's and NTC's. My bet is absolutely no more full NMC's or NTC's. Only certain team maximum.

League will fix escrow and use the Olympics to get the players to bite on the NMC issue.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Players want escrow fixed.

League wants to tweak NMC's and NTC's. My bet is absolutely no more full NMC's or NTC's. Only certain team maximum.

League will fix escrow and use the Olympics to get the players to bite on the NMC issue.

Has free agency age been brought up at all yet? Or expected to stay the same.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They asked people inside the NHLPA. You seem very reluctant to listen to what they said. Where do you get that from? I only said I don't know.


I believe the players want escrow dealt with ASAP. It's likely to be their #1 issue AFAIK.

Like I said logic usually dosn't prevail when it comes to NHL bargaining. I expect it to follow the familiar path leading to a lockout. I hope I'm wrong.

BTW I did respond. I suggested the NhL may actually be the party who opts out to prevent 2 extra years of huge SB contracts. That doesn't address my point. It simply ignores it and restates a position.

Once notice is given, the league will not allow the 2020 season to begin and risk the players going on strike mid or late season.

I agree, escrow is their #1 issue. It is a zero sum issue. Therefore it would be insane, really insane even by NHL standards, to go to war over it. That is an issue that could lead to opting out, almost certainly will, IMO. Very different than getting to a work stoppage over it. The owners will try to use it as a bargaining chip to extract concessions somewhere else but that is just SOP for negotiations.

 

[dvst8r]

Brian Campbell retires

http://www.tsn.ca/blackhawks-d-campbell-retires-at-38-joins-front-office-1.806454

 

[Aavco Cup]

Depending on how much local media contracts are worth, it's possible Vegas will actually help push the cap higher.


Foley: Vegas has more ticket revenue than Boston, Philly and Pittsburgh

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2017/07/17...et-revenue-than-boston-philly-and-pittsburgh/

In an interview with Forbes, Foley said the Golden Knights are “number five, six or seven in terms of ticket revenue in the league,†adding that they’re ahead of the Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

“Edmonton has more revenue in their brand-new arena,†Foley explained. “The Rangers, Toronto, Chicago Blackhawks, they’re all ahead of us. Montreal is right with us.

“We have more revenue than the Flyers, Penguins, the Boston Bruins. Most of our tickets are multi-year. The lower bowl is three to ten years.â€

 

[Rheged]

I wonder how many people bit on a 10 year term.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I wonder how many people bit on a 10 year term.

Casinos and hotels, quite likely. Those make good complimentary packages to high rollers and hotel guests.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Great news about Vegas - sounds like they did things right.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Casinos and hotels, quite likely. Those make good complimentary packages to high rollers and hotel guests.

The word was these were all or nearl all individuals. I think the casinos bought into the suites.

 

[CorgisPer60]

The word was these were all or nearl all individuals. I think the casinos bought into the suites.

Ah. Suites would make more sense from a business standpoint. So, someone (or a group of someones) bought a 10 year season pass package. Huh.

 

[WerdnaG]

If the last two lockouts jave taught me anything, its to not have faith that owners and PA can get anything sorted out without a lockout.

 

[mcpw]

Poile does something no other GM seems to do:

signs Calle Jarnkrok 6 years, $2M AAV
signs Frederick Gaudreau 3 years, $0.667M AAV

Signs good young depth guys, who can also do a hockey in some capacity, unlike 3 year 1.2M old Thorburn or 4 year 2.6M old Stuart, to looooong and cheaaaap deals. Would you sign Adam Lowry or Andrew Copp or Joel Armia for 6 years, $2M AAV today? Guaranteed multimillionaire money for some of those fringey guys, and big upside and cost control for the franchise?

 

[CorgisPer60]

Poile does something no other GM seems to do:

signs Calle Jarnkrok 6 years, $2M AAV
signs Frederick Gaudreau 3 years, $0.667M AAV

Signs good young depth guys, who can also do a hockey in some capacity, unlike 3 year 1.2M old Thorburn or 4 year 2.6M old Stuart, to looooong and cheaaaap deals. Would you sign Adam Lowry or Andrew Copp or Joel Armia for 6 years, $2M AAV today? Guaranteed multimillionaire money for some of those fringey guys, and big upside and cost control for the franchise?

Doesn't Nashville have veritably no state income tax? Big difference between that and Winnipeg.

 

[mcpw]

Doesn't Nashville have veritably no state income tax? Big difference between that and Winnipeg.

Not an expert on that. Going by capfriendly's numbers:

6 years, $2.0M AAV in NSH = $7.511M after tax
6 years, $2.0M AAV in WPG = $6.092M after tax
6 years, $2.5M AAV in WPG = $7.580M after tax

There's a difference, but there's also security. 6 years, $2.25M AAV?