Full disclaimer: I've never been a Sam Reinhart fan. Two years ago I got into several debates on this forum by saying I didn't think he was going to be very good. However, I'm a big Sabres fan so even despite my doubts, I've always hoped for success. However, at this point, I'm just not seeing it. Here are some reasons I doubt he will ever be anything more than an average NHL player:
1. He has no "special" quality about him. Skating, speed, even his highly touted "Hockey IQ" and passing ability haven't been able to translate to the NHL game. Sure, he can make good passes from time to time, but he's not consistently dazzling us with his ability to fit a puck into a tight spot. The inference or corollary being one must play flashy as a #2OA choice (in a somewhat weak draft no less) to not be a bust. That's a false dichotomy.
2. Go look up every single goal Sam Reinhart has scored in the NHL. Tell me how many of them are not a tip in, deflection, shooting into a wide open net or otherwise flukey goal. If it's more than 5 of his career goals I'll Venmo you $10. His shot is simply not NHL quality. You can argue that others have been able to have fine NHL careers without a good shot, but it's amazing to me that he's hardly had ANY goals in the NHL that come in from one of his actual shots. I'm puzzled as to whether Reinhart's goals counted less than Ovechkin's or e.g., Mike Bossy's.
3. He's been demoted from Center at least twice. This really says something. His "natural" position apparently isn't so natural to him, and he's been forced to the wing to help minimize his impact on the game. Without acknowledging his first coach was an idiot and his second coach has had 3 NHL games of experience. Yes, that really says something.
4. He's had maturity/discipline problems. I highly doubt it was the full story when he got benched for a game for missing a practice. Typically when things like that happen, a player has a history of it, or has already had at least one warning. In addition to this, he's made up excuses for why he hasn't been able to be in the gym as much in the past. So, the inference here is a few Tony Robbins DVD's and a couple cycles of Anavar will turn him from a bust to a star? Because you surely can't be speculating...
5. Poor "hockey bloodline". Sure, his father was a good NHL player - but his two brothers have not amounted to much either. While some say this is nonsense, it's not terribly uncommon. Dylan Strome is currently following the disappointing path of his older brother, and Sam looks like he's on the same pace that Griffin was. I thought you grasped the last floating straw with #3, but I see the tide pushed this one a little closer. Anyone else on this board feel their life's intrinsic value / "worth" should be compared to their father (mother) or siblings?
6. Lack of progression. This was the first red flag to me, even going back to his overage year in Juniors. He didn't improve his PPG pace then (a very worrisome sign for almost any NHL prospect and the crux of my argument a couple years ago). Since then, his NHL pace has improved just slightly. He didn't make a big leap at all from year 1 to year 2. Sure, he did score 5 more points, but he scored 6 less goals, and scored 7 more points on the Power Play from the year prior, which negates some of the "improvement" that is there to begin with. Aside from point totals, he hasn't offered anything additional when it comes to play in his own end, leadership, or shot creation. Others have rebutted with data, but ask this at the end of this season, after a full year with a new coach.
7. Draft status. Face it, he was drafted 2nd overall and simply has not performed like a 2nd overall player. Apart from other obvious "busts" going into his 4th NHL season, he does not stack up favorably at all to his peers drafted in the same spot.
