Are we in the nadir era of NHL scoring?

[justafan22]

So with Ovechkin just getting the rocket at 49 goals and Crosby with 44 last year, the NHL had their lowest Rocket winners since before the 2004-05 lockout in 03-04. Is this just a small blip, or is the downturn in a lack of 45+ goal scorers indicative of what's to come in the NHL?

Click to read more...

 

[blood gin]

huh? Goal scoring was at its highest level this year since 2006-2007. If you watched hockey this year you'd notice scores tended to be higher than what we've had in previous years. Why would you think that just because the top end individual scorer isn't super high that goal scoring around the league is somehow suffering? Don't look just at the Richard winner and assume it's somehow indicative of a trend.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

this season had eight 40 goal scorers and three more that fell one goal short.

the last time we saw even five 40 goal scorers in one season was 2011. or put it this way, the last time we saw five 40 goal scorers the sedins were winning art ross trophies and iginla and selanne were in the top 10 in points.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

There were also 30 defensemen who has double figures in goals this season.

 

[The Panther]

Goal-scoring is up this year, and I've really noticed a change in the way shooters shoot. Every game now, you see multiple goals (sometimes ALL goals) going in by high shots to the short side. Everyone now knows goalies have the bottom of the net permanently covered, so your best bet is top-corner, one side or the other. Even back in the 80s, there were not nearly as many goals going in like that (back then, you could score along the ice).

The composite sticks and the natural development of offense has caused this. In other words, the offensive side of the game has almost caught up to the development in the defensive side c.1995 to 2004.

The #1 goal-scorer might look unimpressive, but look at how many guys reached (arbitrarily) 39+ goals:

2017-18

1.	Alex Ovechkin • WSH	49
2.	Patrik Laine • WPG	44
3.	William Karlsson • VEG	43
4.	Evgeni Malkin • PIT	42
	Eric Staal • MIN	42
6.	Connor McDavid • EDM	41
7.	Anders Lee • NYI	40
	Tyler Seguin • DAL	40
9.	Taylor Hall • NJD	39
	Nikita Kucherov • TBL	39
11.	Nathan MacKinnon • COL	39

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2011-12

1.	Steven Stamkos • TBL	60
2.	Evgeni Malkin • PIT	50
3.	Marian Gaborik • NYR	41
4.	James Neal • PIT	40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2003-04

1.	Jarome Iginla • CGY	41
	Ilya Kovalchuk • ATL	41
3.	Rick Nash • CBJ	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1999-00

1.	Pavel Bure* • FLA	58
2.	Owen Nolan • SJS	44
3.	Tony Amonte • CHI	43
4.	Jaromir Jagr • PIT	42
	Paul Kariya* • MDA	42
6.	Brendan Shanahan* • DET	41
7.	John LeClair • PHI	40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1996-97

1.	Keith Tkachuk • PHX	52
2.	Teemu Selanne* • MDA	51
3.	John LeClair • PHI	50
	Mario Lemieux* • PIT	50
5.	Ziggy Palffy • NYI	48
6.	Brendan Shanahan* • 2TM	47
	Jaromir Jagr • PIT	47
8.	Peter Bondra • WSH	46
9.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	44
10.	Brett Hull* • STL	42
11.	Mats Sundin* • TOR	41
	Tony Amonte • CHI	41
13.	Ryan Smyth • EDM	39

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1986-87

1.	Wayne Gretzky* • EDM	62
2.	Tim Kerr • PHI	58
3.	Jari Kurri* • EDM	54
	Mario Lemieux* • PIT	54
5.	Dino Ciccarelli* • MNS	52
6.	Michel Goulet* • QUE	49
7.	Dale Hawerchuk* • WIN	47
	Joe Mullen* • CGY	47
9.	Luc Robitaille* • LAK	45
10.	Doug Gilmour* • STL	42
11.	Tony Tanti • VAN	41
	Mike Gartner* • WSH	41
13.	Brent Ashton • 2TM	40
	Kevin Dineen • HAR	40
	Walt Poddubny • NYR	40
	Tomas Sandstrom • NYR	40
17.	Denis Savard* • CHI	40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I mean, I'm cheating by going with 39, but you get my point -- this year's number of high goal-scorers is about the same as in 1996-97, and isn't even that far off 1986-87.

 

[tony d]

Offense was up this yr. Sure there were no 50 goal scorers but league wide scoring was up and quite a few 40 goal scorers.

 

[Ingvar]

I don't think 50 goal season is a great measure of offence. Let's take a look at 45 goal scorers in the last 10 seasons (starting with 2007-2008 because of lockout) without Ovechkin.

Player	Goals	Season
Ilya Kovalchuck	52	2007-2008
Jarome Iginla	50	2007-2008
Evgeni Malkin	47	2007-2008
Jeff Carter	46	2008-2009
Zach Parise	45	2008-2009
Sidney Crosby	51	2009-2010
Steven Stamkos	51	2009-2010
Corey Perry	50	2010-2011
Steven Stamkos	45	2010-2011
Steven Stamkos	60	2011-2012
Evgeni Malkin	50	2011-2012
Patrick Kane	46	2015-2016

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4 seasons out of 10 didn't have a single 50 goal scorer. In the last 10 full seasons there was only 12 times 45 goal mark was reached. There is a single instance where 55 goal mark was reached. The ratio of non-50 goal seasons to 50 goal season is 5 to 7. Out of players mentioned here only Kovalchuck and Iginla managed to reach 45 goal mark not in this period - and each did it once.

I think 45 goals is pretty good indicator of elite goalscoring seasons. Only the best of the best - Iginla, Kovalchuck, Malkin, Stamkos - manage to achieve it twice during their careers. Now return Ovechkin here, watch how he skews the data single-handedly and appreciate his greatness.

As for the question in the OP - no, the scoring levels are pretty consistent the last 5 years, you just don't have Ovechkin to mask it any more.

 

[Canadiens1958]

I don't think 50 goal season is a great measure of offence. Let's take a look at 45 goal scorers in the last 10 seasons (starting with 2007-2008 because of lockout) without Ovechkin.

Player	Goals	Season
Ilya Kovalchuck	52	2007-2008
Jarome Iginla	50	2007-2008
Evgeni Malkin	47	2007-2008
Jeff Carter	46	2008-2009
Zach Parise	45	2008-2009
Sidney Crosby	51	2009-2010
Steven Stamkos	51	2009-2010
Corey Perry	50	2010-2011
Steven Stamkos	45	2010-2011
Steven Stamkos	60	2011-2012
Evgeni Malkin	50	2011-2012
Patrick Kane	46	2015-2016

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4 seasons out of 10 didn't have a single 50 goal scorer. In the last 10 full seasons there was only 12 times 45 goal mark was reached. There is a single instance where 55 goal mark was reached. The ratio of non-50 goal seasons to 50 goal season is 5 to 7. Out of players mentioned here only Kovalchuck and Iginla managed to reach 45 goal mark not in this period - and each did it once.

I think 45 goals is pretty good indicator of elite goalscoring seasons. Only the best of the best - Iginla, Kovalchuck, Malkin, Stamkos - manage to achieve it twice during their careers. Now return Ovechkin here, watch how he skews the data single-handedly and appreciate his greatness.

As for the question in the OP - no, the scoring levels are pretty consistent the last 5 years, you just don't have Ovechkin to mask it any more.

Adjusted to a 70 game season O6,Ovechkin has one sure 50 goal season. Same as Bernie Geoffrion. Bobby Hull had three 50 goal seasons, even though he played 70 games only once in those three seasons.

Bobby Hull Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Ovi is not masking, anything.

 

[Ingvar]

Adjusted to a 70 game season O6,Ovechkin has one sure 50 goal season. Same as Bernie Geoffrion. Bobby Hull had three 50 goal seasons, even though he played 70 games only once in those three seasons.

Bobby Hull Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Ovi is not masking, anything.

Yes, it is a fact. However, I have at least 2 problems with this approach:
1) It compares players not against their peers. Ovechkin never played against Hull or even in the O6 era. I mean, one even has to cherry-pick only a part of Bobby Hull career to fit him into 70-game season period. Cross-era comparisons are hard and should be tackled carefully if at all.
2) It prorates. Prorating is the simplest way to compare numbers which usually means it is the worst. Yes, it is hard to determine how to make corrections but making none doesn't help at all. It also instantly puts a comparison from the realm of what really happened to the realm of what could have happened.

I tried as hard as possible to avoid this 2 issues in my simple calculation by lowering the threshold to 45 goals instead of just looking at 50 goal seasons and taking what happened in 82 game seasons only regardless of conditions.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Yes, it is a fact. However, I have at least 2 problems with this approach:
1) It compares players not against their peers. Ovechkin never played against Hull or even in the O6 era. I mean, one even has to cherry-pick only a part of Bobby Hull career to fit him into 70-game season period. Cross-era comparisons are hard and should be tackled carefully if at all.
2) It prorates. Prorating is the simplest way to compare numbers which usually means it is the worst. Yes, it is hard to determine how to make corrections but making none doesn't help at all. It also instantly puts a comparison from the realm of what really happened to the realm of what could have happened.

I tried as hard as possible to avoid this 2 issues in my simple calculation by lowering the threshold to 45 goals instead of just looking at 50 goal seasons and taking what happened in 82 game seasons only regardless of conditions.

That you have problems is collateral,side issue, to my point which is that the 50 goal benchmark stopped being an indicator of goal scoring when the NHL went from a 50 game schedule to a 60 to 70 to an 82 game schedule with brief stopsin between. Like a B & W, TV it served its purpose.Nice headline,celebrating Maurice Richard scoring 50 goals in 50 games in 1945,but now we have the internet.

Now we have many other measures - defencemen scoring, depth scoring,measuring ES scoring, etc.

As a bonus we also learned that your homey is not as special as you thought he was.

 

[GlitchMarner]

This season was the highest scoring season in terms of goals per game across the League since 2005-2006 and the second highest since 1995-1996.

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[GlitchMarner]

2017-18

1.	Alex Ovechkin • WSH	49
2.	Patrik Laine • WPG	44
3.	William Karlsson • VEG	43
4.	Evgeni Malkin • PIT	42
	Eric Staal • MIN	42
6.	Connor McDavid • EDM	41
7.	Anders Lee • NYI	40
	Tyler Seguin • DAL	40
9.	Taylor Hall • NJD	39
	Nikita Kucherov • TBL	39
11.	Nathan MacKinnon • COL	39

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I hope Connor is able to consistently score 40 or more from now on.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

your homey

oh man between this and that epic killion post about howe, this has been a week of hot fire from our senior posters.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Bring the topic back on track.

One of the reasons for the increased scoring is the increased involvement of former pros in youth hockey in Canada and the USA as coaches, the last generation.

The former players had quality careers,understand offensive and defensive hockey and can teach both,much better than the academics.

 

[Killion]

oh man between this and that epic killion post about howe, this has been a week of hot fire from our senior posters.

... yep.... got a serious chuckle when I read that line from C58..... still giggling about it.

 

[Ingvar]

That you have problems is collateral,side issue, to my point which is that the 50 goal benchmark stopped being an indicator of goal scoring when the NHL went from a 50 game schedule to a 60 to 70 to an 82 game schedule with brief stopsin between. Like a B & W, TV it served its purpose.Nice headline,celebrating Maurice Richard scoring 50 goals in 50 games in 1945,but now we have the internet.

Now we have many other measures - defencemen scoring, depth scoring,measuring ES scoring, etc.

As a bonus we also learned that your homey is not as special as you thought he was.

I'm not having a "No U"-style argument with anyone who likely was in school in the 60s. The point about 50 goal benchmark being useless, however, is interesting. I decided to profile high goalscoring season from 95-96 to today (excluding 12-13). First of all, let's start with results:

Goalscoring seasons in 82 game era

Number of goals	Number of players
40	29
41	25
42	10
43	14
44	11
45	7
46	6
47	7
48	4
49	1
50	12
51	8
52	10
53	1
54	2
55	1
56	2
58	1
59	1
60	1
62	1
65	1
69	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That doesn't look like the right side of probability density curve of normal distribution at all. Downward trend is pretty clear in 40-49 range and then there is a distinct peak above 50. There is more scoring seasons in 50-52 range than in 45-49 range - meaning peak goalscorers do reach 50 goal mark. 1 example of 49 and 53 goal seasons (both by Ovechkin BTW) completes the picture - reaching 50 is a meaningful achievement, everything above 52 is exceptional.

Outlier analysis in the next post.

 

[Ingvar]

To find outlier seasons I use two metrics - average goal-per game in a season and number of 50 goal scorers.

Average GPG

Average GPG range	Seasons
>3.00	95-96 05-06
2.80-3.00	96-97 06-07 08-09 17-18
2.60-2.80	97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 07-08 10-11 11-12 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17
<2.60	03-04

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

50 goal scorers

Number of 50 goal scorers	Seasons
8	95-96
5	05-06
4	96-97 97-98
3	00-01 07-08 09-10
2	06-07 11-12
1	99-00 01-02 02-03 08-09 10-11 13-14 14-15 15-16
0	98-99 03-04 16-17 17-18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

OK, now we see that 95-96 and 05-06 are outliers - both have significantly higher average GPG (3.14 and 3.08) and abnormally high number of 50 goal scorers for this year. The next tier of high scoring years doesn't show direct correspondence to number of goalscorers. 03-04 may be considered one but it really isn't that different from 16-17 except for abnormally low average GPG.

Two benefactors of outlier seasons are Kariya and Cheechoo. Neither has scored 50 again in their career and we can question whether their career best would be enough to join the club in any other year - especially for Kariya who has barely reached 50. Mogilny hasn't scored 50 afterwards but 76 in 77 in previous era is probably enough of a proof. Curiously, Jagr had 2 of his 3 50 goal seasons in the outlier seasons.

Bure, Iginla, Hedjuk, Perry and Ovechkin (4) are 50 goal season saviours - they are the reason why 1 50 goal seasons outnumber 0 50 goal seasons 2:1.

As for the question of OP, yes, we can clearly see that the league is becoming less top-heavy - we haven't seen 50 goal scorers for 2 seasons and 50 goal scorers not named Ovechkin since 11-12. However, average GPG is on the rise and there seems to be an influx of new talent in the NHL. The next couple of years will show whether we will return to the 1-3 50 goal scorers which was the norm for the NHL since 97-98 or if we really are in the nadir of NHL top scoring.

 

[Canadiens1958]

I'm not having a "No U"-style argument with anyone who likely was in school in the 60s. The point about 50 goal benchmark being useless, however, is interesting. I decided to profile high goalscoring season from 95-96 to today (excluding 12-13). First of all, let's start with results:

Goalscoring seasons in 82 game era

Number of goals	Number of players
40	29
41	25
42	10
43	14
44	11
45	7
46	6
47	7
48	4
49	1
50	12
51	8
52	10
53	1
54	2
55	1
56	2
58	1
59	1
60	1
62	1
65	1
69	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That doesn't look like the right side of probability density curve of normal distribution at all. Downward trend is pretty clear in 40-49 range and then there is a distinct peak above 50. There is more scoring seasons in 50-52 range than in 45-49 range - meaning peak goalscorers do reach 50 goal mark. 1 example of 49 and 53 goal seasons (both by Ovechkin BTW) completes the picture - reaching 50 is a meaningful achievement, everything above 52 is exceptional.

Outlier analysis in the next post.

Interesting, took time to produce but shows little understanding of the topic under discussion.

Basically the topic is the increase in NHL league scoring. How many players reach an arbitrary benchmark has no bearing on league scoring.

Will illustrate with an example.

Bernie Geoffrion - Montreal Canadiens, scored 50 goals during the 1960-61 season while playing 64 of the 70 RS games.

Starting with the 1957-58 thru the 1961-62, NHL season the Canadiens over the course of the 70 game NHL season scored 250,258,255,254,259 goals. Geoffrion scored 27,22,30,50,23. League scoring was 5.60,5.80,5.90,6.00and 6.02. Bobby Hull recorded his first 50 goal season in 1961-62.

There is absolutely no correlation between arbitrary benchmarks and league scoring during this era. Two players happened to benefit from favourable distribution of ice time and goals in a given season. 1961-62 Canadiens highest goal scorer had 33 while the team registered a league record of 259.

Same today. League scoring increased by under 8% over 2016-17. Yet Ovechkin fell 16 goals short of his career best and Stamkos fell 33 goals short of his career best.

League goal scoring is never dependent on individual players or benchmarks being attained.

 

[The Panther]

Basically the topic is the increase in NHL league scoring. How many players reach an arbitrary benchmark has no bearing on league scoring.

This may be the first time I completely agree with you. My compliments.