Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

[BAM]

You win the cup by being a consistent contender, for a decade.
You kick off that decade by trading for picks and prospects.

Nevermind this year.

Lou: Get me some picks and prospects !

The Hawks won their first cup in the 2nd year of playoffs for their core, the Pens won their cup in the 3rd year of playoffs for their core. (Two teams built similarly to the Leafs, speed/skill)

You were saying?

 

[indigobuffalo]

Very True.

This group would need divine intervention to win 16 games though.

True about almost every team on Lord Stanley’s mug.

 

[indigobuffalo]

I’m calling it now, we channel Montreal’s performance the year Subban broke into the NHL, only our Subban is a Sfede.

Liljegren...

 

[Gary Nylund]

Absolutely this version of the Leafs a legitimate contender. Which players cannot produce this playoff season, they might even move.

How many teams are better than the Leafs?

Not many.

Maybe only 5 teams we can say are better than Toronto right now.

Given there are 16 playoff teams, this means the Leafs are a real contender.

Toronto is not a favourite, but it is not a longshot either. That means in this horse race, they are a contender.

Unless we make the claim the Leafs have no chance against teams like Tampa or Boston, such as Toronto last season against Washington, then Toronto is a legitimate contender.

Pure fantasy. We're actually 10th overall at the moment and in the first two rounds, we'll probably have to play two out of the top three teams in the league and should we get past them, we will likely be underdogs in every series after that as well. If you don't think that's a longshot, give your head a shake. Make it a long, hard shake too.

 

[Trapper]

Pure fantasy. We're actually 10th overall at the moment and in the first two rounds, we'll probably have to play two out of the top three teams in the league and should we get past them, we will likely be underdogs in every series after that as well. If you don't think that's a longshot, give your head a shake. Make it a long, hard shake too.

Playoffs isn't regular season either.
There are many teams that have been yearly staples in the playoffs with infinitely more experience than we have.
Polak leads the D core in most playoff experience.
Our own rentals in Bozak/Komarov have 5 and 7 more games of experience than Matthews/Marner/Nylander. What do they know about going through 4 rounds of 7?
Be positive yes, but be real as well.

 

[Joedoggy]

A team with little direction other than a Beady eyed coach yelling "Go Fast" and when scored upon asks asst. coaches "What Happened" has issues. Feel fortunate the Toronto press talks about and writes what their told to.
No tough questions for old Mikey Just Ego stroking.


Frankly theres a better chance that O Dog gets a good Hair cut and matching tie/shirt combination.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I don't think the Leafs have a chance at all against the Bruins or Tampa in the first round. And it isn't because of defence, it's the poor centre play after Matthews and Kadri.
Leafs have to upgrade at centre (and it isn't happening this year). I don't know how they are going to do, but an improvement over Bozak and Moore is really needed.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't think the Leafs have a chance at all against the Bruins or Tampa in the first round. And it isn't because of defence, it's the poor centre play after Matthews and Kadri.
Leafs have to upgrade at centre (and it isn't happening this year). I don't know how they are going to do, but an improvement over Bozak and Moore is really needed.

They improved it last year at the deadline. Why so certain they won't attempt to at this deadline?
IMO, the Tampa goalie is the biggest factor why I don't see the Leafs beating Tampa.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Playoffs isn't regular season either.
There are many teams that have been yearly staples in the playoffs with infinitely more experience than we have.
Polak leads the D core in most playoff experience.
Our own rentals in Bozak/Komarov have 5 and 7 more games of experience than Matthews/Marner/Nylander. What do they know about going through 4 rounds of 7?
Be positive yes, but be real as well.

This. Probably the most annoying thing around here lately is that anyone with a realistic view of our chances gets branded as "being negative".

If I say I want to trade JVR and don't mind getting futures in return, I get stampeded by people saying I'm negative, picks might not pan out etc. and some people even say things like "you have to take your shot when you can, we may never be in this position again" or "this is our best chance to win while the big 3 are on their ELC's".

Funny, those comments actually are what seem negative to me. I would love to get some more futures because I want (and expect!) our future to be something like this beginning with next season (or the one after that at worst):

- make the playoffs every year for the next 10 years
- have home advantage in the 1st round for at least 8 of those years
- make the Eastern conference finals at least 5-6 times
- make the Stanley Cup finals at least 3 times
- win the cup at least once, hoping for more than that

When the playoffs start, I'll be hoping to win the cup and cheering for that to happen as hard as anyone. I do think it's unlikely we make it to the 2nd round (definitely have a shot though) and more unlikely still that we make it past that. That's why I want to trade JVR, we have more talent on this team than we've had in the last 50 years but when we get really a good a few years from now, we won't be able to afford to keep everyone so we will need to have cheap talent coming up through the pipeline. We're in a perfect spot to sell (probably for the last time in the next 10 years) as we're locked into the playoffs and our 1st round opponent will be TB or BOS no matter what we do so let's keep our bright future in mind and cash in one last time.

So that's how I see it - probably no cup run this year but a bunch of cup runs in our very near future. If that makes me a pessimist , so be it.

 

[ACC1224]

This. Probably the most annoying thing around here lately is that anyone with a realistic view of our chances gets branded as "being negative".

If I say I want to trade JVR and don't mind getting futures in return, I get stampeded by people saying I'm negative, picks might not pan out etc. and some people even say things like "you have to take your shot when you can, we may never be in this position again" or "this is our best chance to win while the big 3 are on their ELC's".

Funny, those comments actually are what seem negative to me. I would love to get some more futures because I want our future to be something like this beginning with next season (or the one after that at worst):

- make the playoffs every year for the next 10 years
- have home advantage in the 1st round for at least 8 of those years
- make the Eastern conference finals at least 5-6 times
- make the Stanley Cup finals at least 3 times
- win the cup at least once, hoping for more than that

When the playoffs start, I'll be hoping to win the cup and cheering for that to happen as hard as anyone. I do think it's unlikely we make it to the 2nd round (definitely have a shot though) and more unlikely still that we make it past that. That's why I want to trade JVR, we have more talent on this team than we've had in the last 50 years but when we get really a good a few years from now, we won't be able to afford to keep everyone so we will need to have cheap talent coming up through the pipeline. We're in a perfect spot to sell (probably for the last time in the next 10 years) as we're locked into the playoffs and our 1st round opponent will be TB or BOS no matter what we do so let's keep our bright future in mind and cash in one last time.

So that's how I see it - probably no cup run this year but a bunch of cup runs in our very near future. If that makes me a pessimist , so be it.

I don't see your opinion as negative at all just not realistic.
The bolded seems like a rare opinion although it could be I just don't read their posts).

 

[Nithoniniel]

It's interesting to extrapolate playoff chances from what we've seen of this season. One thing you need to account for is differences in how the games look. OT/SO results no longer matters, and the games are largely decided even strength. Taken those factors into account changes the landscape a bit. Unfortunately, it doesn't change that we are likely to need to go through two of the best teams in the league in any run.

I think we are too good to be comfortable making moves that hurt our chances this season. We are good enough that we should give it a good try. But we are not good enough that such a try wouldn't be against the odds, that we are in a "go for it"-scenario. That all plays into any potential trade scenario.

I no longer feel that we should take a long-term approach to things. I think I'm leaning towards letting the market determine our actions. If an upgrade on Moore (#4C with PK ability and FO prowess) is available relatively cheap, I'd say go for it. Same with an upgrade on Polak (RHD with PK ability). Less interested in other pieces. The prices will be too high for the need. But in the same way, I'm not against selling on our expendable pieces if the deal is good enough. It's all about value versus the impact it has on our chances.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't see your opinion as negative at all just not realistic.
The bolded seems like a rare opinion although it could be I just don't read their posts).

Which part of my post is unrealistic? Do you think I'm being too optimistic?

It's interesting to extrapolate playoff chances from what we've seen of this season. One thing you need to account for is differences in how the games look. OT/SO results no longer matters, and the games are largely decided even strength. Taken those factors into account changes the landscape a bit. Unfortunately, it doesn't change that we are likely to need to go through two of the best teams in the league in any run.

I think we are too good to be comfortable making moves that hurt our chances this season. We are good enough that we should give it a good try. But we are not good enough that such a try wouldn't be against the odds, that we are in a "go for it"-scenario. That all plays into any potential trade scenario.

I no longer feel that we should take a long-term approach to things. I think I'm leaning towards letting the market determine our actions. If an upgrade on Moore (#4C with PK ability and FO prowess) is available relatively cheap, I'd say go for it. Same with an upgrade on Polak (RHD with PK ability). Less interested in other pieces. The prices will be too high for the need. But in the same way, I'm not against selling on our expendable pieces if the deal is good enough. It's all about value versus the impact it has on our chances.

We're in that tough spot now where we we're trying to win now and win in the future. Usually when trades are made you're trading one for the other which makes it a tough balancing act indeed. I believe we will have many years coming up where our chances will be better than they are this season which is why the cost of keeping JVR for a couple of months isn't worth it for me. I'm assuming of course that he would fetch at least a 1st round pick or a top prospect in return, if not then I'm fine with standing pat.

 

[ACC1224]

Which part of my post is unrealistic? Do you think I'm being too optimistic?

Wishing they'd move the UFA's at the deadline is unrealistic.
Saying that, I don't necessarily think you believe that will happen but wish it would.

 

[Nithoniniel]

We're in that tough spot now where we we're trying to win now and win in the future. Usually when trades are made you're trading one for the other which makes it a tough balancing act indeed. I believe we will have many years coming up where our chances will be better than they are this season which is why the cost of keeping JVR for a couple of months isn't worth it for me. I'm assuming of course that he would fetch at least a 1st round pick or a top prospect in return, if not then I'm fine with standing pat.

Yeah. If the return we get moves the needle enough going forward to more than make up for the difference in what JVR brings over his replacement, and what that does for our chances now, then we sell. If the return is something where it's hard to see if it will really make a difference, then we might as well keep him.

We are at a place where we shouldn't put a premium on maximizing chances now, but where we still want to make them as good as possible. It's a balancing act, but it's a refreshing one in the way that we seemingly have a ton of options, and can just go for the best one.

Put it this way. I think the value that JVR can have for us in an attempted cup run is higher than a suboptimal trade return would be if we had been bad enough to be out of it.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I don’t see why the Leafs couldn’t beat any given team in a playoff series, 4 times, and vice versa. Even the very top teams seem easily matched, and any team that wins the cup will not have an easy route. The odds to win the cup make it unlikely for any team, including Toronto, but in the end someone has to win it.

 

[Mess]

To me this years contenders look like TB, Boston from Atlantic, Washington & Pittsburgh from the Metro in the East .. In the West its Winnipeg and Nashville and perhaps you can't count out the expansion Vegas Knights on play, but that is a Cinderella story like no other also.

Leafs slot into the 2nd tier below the above with a chance, but will need a lot of things to go their way.

 

[Trapper]

Yeah. If the return we get moves the needle enough going forward to more than make up for the difference in what JVR brings over his replacement, and what that does for our chances now, then we sell. If the return is something where it's hard to see if it will really make a difference, then we might as well keep him.

We are at a place where we shouldn't put a premium on maximizing chances now, but where we still want to make them as good as possible. It's a balancing act, but it's a refreshing one in the way that we seemingly have a ton of options, and can just go for the best one.

Put it this way. I think the value that JVR can have for us in an attempted cup run is higher than a suboptimal trade return would be if we had been bad enough to be out of it.

That's the chance you are going to take.
Opinions may change if it doesn't go the way you'd like.
You might find what you didn't get for JVR was greater than what you got.
As it stands, I expect JVR to be a monster in the playoffs. He should be one/if not the best forward for the following reasons.
1. He's not 20 years old
2. He wants a long term/dollar contract
3. He gets the optimum matchups
4. We aren't getting assets for him by betting on playoff success run
5. He has more playoff games played vs. the others at forward

I can't except just floating up and down the wing deflecting pucks.
As I've stated, he should have been dealt in the summer. Moving on 101.
Some aren't thrilled with draft picks but sure love Dermott being able to step in.
I want more to be able to step in and then the talented bodies to be developed right behind.
This organization needs more at center developing and greater odds at RHD. More prospects like Brown with speed and a little heavy that can play top 9.

Again we'll see. Enjoy the now. We can discuss the later when it happens. How opinions line up vs. expected results.

 

[Mess]

I'm expecting TB to take on Winnipeg or Nashville for the Cup.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The Hawks won their first cup in the 2nd year of playoffs for their core, the Pens won their cup in the 3rd year of playoffs for their core. (Two teams built similarly to the Leafs, speed/skill)

You were saying?

We are the Leafs, in the NHL parity era.
Stop living in the past.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

I don't know how someone could say with a straight face that the 8th ranked team leaguewide isn't a Stanley Cup contender. The League's 16th ranked team went to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals last season!

Do we have holes and weaknesses? Sure. But which team doesn't? The League's back-to-back Stanley Cup winners have looked like ass up until recently! The League's back-to-back President Trophy winners have gone out in the 2nd round!

The NHL is unpredictable and full of parity - it's really about who gets hot at the right time and I think with our mix of coaching, goaltending and gamebreakers up front we could definitely do some damage come playoff time.

With that said, I think our window truly opens up next season where we should begin a 5-year window of contending for the Stanley Cup.

 

[Trapper]

Legit contenders: No IMO.
1 in 16 chance to win the Cup: Yes.

8 teams will be gone in the 1st round. Will we be one of them? Remains to be seen.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I don't know how someone could say with a straight face that the 8th ranked team leaguewide isn't a Stanley Cup contender.

I dont know how you can't understand stockpiling for the future.

I dont understand how you didn't notice Boston manhandling us like our team was entirely AHL players.

You win the cup by being a perpetual serious contender.

We are too early in a rebuild to be a serious Win Now team.

Could we win this year ?

Yes. There is a 5% chance.

Every year you dont win is a wasted opportunity to improve the team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think the Leafs have a chance at all against the Bruins or Tampa in the first round. And it isn't because of defence, it's the poor centre play after Matthews and Kadri.
Leafs have to upgrade at centre (and it isn't happening this year). I don't know how they are going to do, but an improvement over Bozak and Moore is really needed.

This is ridiculous, of course we have a chance. A pretty good chance too, I'd say ~40% as things stand right now.

To me this years contenders look like TB, Boston from Atlantic, Washington & Pittsburgh from the Metro in the East .. In the West its Winnipeg and Nashville and perhaps you can't count out the expansion Vegas Knights on play, but that is a Cinderella story like no other also.

Leafs slot into the 2nd tier below the above with a chance, but will need a lot of things to go their way.

Looks like a pretty good list and definitely Vegas is in there. Probably about 95% that one of those 7 teams takes it. And if it's not one of those 7, then I like our chances.

 

[Zizzzzy]

If you make the Playoffs, you are a contender.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

I dont know how you can't understand stockpiling for the future.

I dont understand how you didn't notice Boston manhandling us like our team was entirely AHL players.

You win the cup by being a perpetual serious contender.

We are too early in a rebuild to be a serious Win Now team.

Could we win this year ?

Yes. There is a 5% chance.

Every year you dont win is a wasted opportunity to improve the team.

I don't know if you've noticed this but Boston is on a giant hot streak that has seen them steamroll numerous good teams along the way.

You know who got manhandled the other day? Tampa Bay to the tune of a 6-2 loss to the lowly Edmonton Oilers. So not Cup contenders right?

Also, I know someone already brought up the perfectly valid timelines that the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins followed - ie. a quick rise to prominence with teams that look a lot like the Leafs - but you brushed them off, so I wont even bother going there.