Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?


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LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
Pretty big difference in where the teams are in the standings though. We snuck in last year, Winnipeg should get home ice. They and Vegas are going to be interesting to watch.
I still don't see how Winnipeg getting home ice will make a difference. I say one factor against them is lack of playoff experience, which is what everyone said about the Leafs when it was confirmed they were playing Washington.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
I am a fan of goal differential. At the same time in 2012 the four teams that made it to the conference final were 5th, 9th, 10th and 12th, while 3 of the top 4 in goal differential exited in the first round and the other team was swept in the second round.

oh snap.
 

Ignatius Reilly

Registered User
Nov 25, 2010
648
355
I still don't see how Winnipeg getting home ice will make a difference. I say one factor against them is lack of playoff experience, which is what everyone said about the Leafs when it was confirmed they were playing Washington.

It's not really about the home ice, it's what it means in terms of where they are in the standings.

Jets are T4 at .667 points%. Leafs were T13 at .579.

Both lacking playoff experience, but one's a much stronger team going in.

Despite all that we gave those Presidents' Trophy winners a good run. And they've got plenty of (early round) experience.
 

666

Registered User
Jun 27, 2005
2,982
739
It's been obvious from day one that the Leafs have no intention of contending while the kids are on their entry deals like Chicago. This is the right decision because we are in no way anything like Chicago who didn't tank. It's going to take us longer to build but we should be ready in a few years.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
It's not really about the home ice, it's what it means in terms of where they are in the standings.

Jets are T4 at .667 points%. Leafs were T13 at .579.

Both lacking playoff experience, but one's a much stronger team going in.

Despite all that we gave those Presidents' Trophy winners a good run. And they've got plenty of (early round) experience.
In some ways Winnipeg getting home ice might be a bad thing for a team with no playoff experience. If they lose Game 1 that could shift momentum away from them and they will be under more pressure to come back. If Toronto starts Game 1 in Tampa or Boston at least they have the experience of doing it last year in Washington.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,884
9,726
In some ways Winnipeg getting home ice might be a bad thing for a team with no playoff experience. If they lose Game 1 that could shift momentum away from them and they will be under more pressure to come back. If Toronto starts Game 1 in Tampa or Boston at least they have the experience of doing it last year in Washington.

How could home ice advantage ever be a bad thing? Statistically or just from a match-up perspective? I don't get this.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
How could home ice advantage ever be a bad thing? Statistically or just from a match-up perspective? I don't get this.
I have heard some people say if a team with virtually no playoff experience or with just a few players who's been in the playoffs before, it's harder to win those games compared to the regular season. So getting home ice advantage puts only more pressure on them to win when everyone expects it to happen.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,884
9,726
I have heard some people say if a team with virtually no playoff experience or with just a few players who's been in the playoffs before, it's harder to win those games compared to the regular season. So getting home ice advantage puts only more pressure on them to win when everyone expects it to happen.

I can tell you I never played a tournament where it was easier away than at home. Lots of pressure on the road from fans, media, comfort level and the match-ups etc. I guess it's possible though.
 

Raym11

Registered User
Oct 6, 2009
8,173
1,892
I'm inclined to say no, similar to last season we look all over the place.

We had a great playoff showing and were almost a different team than we were in regular season though, so who knows. We could have easily won vs the Caps while they were far and away the better team on paper before going into the series. They are chokers so thats something else.

I believe Marner / Kadri and Gardiner are our 3 guys that matter the most on if we'll win a series or not. If we have to play someone like Boston, Kadri has to be the best player in the series. Marner needs to be hot enough to carry his line. Surprisingly, my least concern in the playoffs is probably our defense if they're all healthy, just Gardiner.

Depends who Babcock thinks is our playoff guys at that point
 
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MR4

Registered User
Oct 20, 2014
6,270
2,253
Not a contender past the 'anything can happen in playoffs' level, especially with 2 top 3 league-wide teams in the way of our path. But if we sold all of our UFAs this year, and traded the return for a top RHD like Tanev or add for Doughty, we could easily be a top 3-5 contender next year.
 

puckIuck

Registered User
Jan 11, 2018
840
440
We're better than the Senators team that made the ECF last year. We're better than the Oilers team that went all the way to the SCF all those years back.

In the playoffs, most bets are off. The right circumstances, and this team could go in any number of directions. We'll see when we get there.

those sens played excellent committed team defence. the leafs can hardly play consistent for more than 2 periods.. if there's no effort to back the skill it doesn't matter.
 

ErnieLeafs

Registered User
Apr 7, 2009
11,982
2,077
those sens played excellent committed team defence. the leafs can hardly play consistent for more than 2 periods.. if there's no effort to back the skill it doesn't matter.

Okay. Well, tonight's game is a fine example of dealing with high powered offenses. We have as good a shot as anyone outside of what? 3 teams?
 

Ovate

Registered User
Dec 17, 2014
4,105
56
Toronto
Make sure you're looking at real goal differential, at least.

1.TBL +0.98/gm
2.VGK +0.78/gm
3.BOS +0.77/gm
4.WPG +0.59/gm
5.NSH +0.44/gm
6.LAK +0.38/gm
7.COL +0.34/gm
8.STL +0.33/gm
9.DAL +0.33/gm
10.TOR +0.26/gm
11.CHI +0.24/gm
12.WSH +0.20/gm
13.SJS +0.12/gm
14.ANA +0.07/gm
15.MIN +0.06/gm
16.CGY +0.06/gm
17.PHI +0.06/gm
18.NYR +0.06/gm
19.NJD +0.02/gm
20.PIT +0.00/gm

So by goal differential, Leafs are the 3rd best team in the East, 10th overall in the league.

They are also closer to being a top-5 team in the league (0.18 from 0.44) than they are to being one of the bubble teams on the edge of the playoffs (0.20 from +0.06).
And now we're at #6 in the league, with 0.403/gm.

The stat is a bit limited if a team can jump up four spots based on a single midseason game.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
And now we're at #6 in the league, with 0.403/gm.

The stat is a bit limited if a team can jump up four spots based on a single midseason game.


I think they're #7 at .35....but point taken.
 
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Dog

Arf! Arf! Arf!
Feb 9, 2016
2,344
914
Wasteland
I voted maybe based on few factors. Those factors would include youth momentum and then solid goaltending.
 

Macallan18

Registered User
Aug 10, 2015
9,562
5,494
Look, Anderssen has been great in net. Definitely the quality of cup winning goaltending. Hot goaltending can take you far. Look at Montreal when Price was dominant.
We have Matthews. And Nylander. And Marner. And Kadri. And Marleau. And JVR. Tick off the offence box.
I think our defence could be decent if Bobcat would play our better players. Dermott has broken out. And with Polak down, even Holl looked ok. Our core of Rielly, playoff Jake and Zaitsev with an emerging Dermott could do the trick.
What I would like to see is Martin and Polak sent to Robidas Island. Play Kappy. OMG almost forgot Leivo!!!!
And what do I think we need? A decent 4th line centre. You put a Boyle out there with Kappy and Komorov, and you are rolling 4 decent lines.
So it is a contender. Maybe not the best, but pretty damn good.
 

Spirit of 67

Registered User
Nov 25, 2016
7,061
4,938
Aurora, On.
I picked Absolutely Not.

Now, if everything breaks right for them, I think they have enough talent to win. But they lack experience and depth.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,787
21,963
I have heard some people say if a team with virtually no playoff experience or with just a few players who's been in the playoffs before, it's harder to win those games compared to the regular season. So getting home ice advantage puts only more pressure on them to win when everyone expects it to happen.

I would think if players on a team are that weak mentally then they're not going anywhere anyway. Always take home ice you can, JMHO.

Are we a legit contender? Too early to tell IMO. We haven't played one enough at the moment, too inconsistent and team D has been poor so as of today I say no. That said, I think we can be much better. It requires playing the right people (ie. Kapanen instead of Martin) and a better effort on a consistent basis from everyone. Then there's the possibility of a trade that could help as well. The potential is there and I think it's possible they put it all together by the time the playoffs start but I wouldn't bet my house on it.

As far as actually winning the cup a huge problem is the path - Boston + TB + PIT/WSH or whoever and then LV/NSH is as tough as it gets. We have easily the easiest division to make the playoffs in but probably the hardest once the playoffs start.
 

Community

44 is Rielly good
Oct 30, 2010
6,765
1,664
The Darkest Timeline
I voted yes 100%. The question was if they are cup contenders and i think that is an obvious yes. Are they the favourites? Hell no. However, they're better than a bubble team and that makes them contenders in my book.
 
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