Andrei Kostitsyn potential?

[Blades 0f Steel]

$1.175M... and given that Samsonov can't get into the lineup now in games where Kovalev and Bonk are hurt, when we dress two defensemen as forwards, then I don't see why anybody would expect anything other than the buyout in the summer. Wasting $1.175M of cap space on a buyout is still better than wasting $3.525M of cap space on the 15th or 16th forward on your depth chart.

so long as you're sure, I didn't think you could buy out a contract for so little.

 

[RandV]

maybe not yet, but Kosty was always considerd as a project who would take more years then the others to devolop, people here are just fast on giving up, it's always about the guys who make it first, not who turns out the best of them... KJosty has more skills then most guys of his draft except maybe Zherdev, Vanek and Stall who he is either very close or on par with them( again only in terms of skills). Once he pans out completely you'l see him owning the ice just like Alexei Kovalev can, maybe not racking up the points but he's still 1st line material

Kostitsyn's a great prospect no doubt, and I have something of an interest in him thanks to sim leagues, but ridiculous jab at Kesler aside, I fail to see how pointing out names of players, all but one picked after Kostitsyn, even up to 20 picks later, shows anything. I mean, for those players mentioned I could match it with Carter, Brown, Seabrook, Bernier, Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, and Bergeron. Kostitsyn may yet surpass some of those names, but right now most people would take those guys ahead.

Not a bad pick by any means, but could've been better, as this was a rediculously good draft.

 

[Dominator13]

Kostitsyn's a great prospect no doubt, and I have something of an interest in him thanks to sim leagues, but ridiculous jab at Kesler aside, I fail to see how pointing out names of players, all but one picked after Kostitsyn, even up to 20 picks later, shows anything. I mean, for those players mentioned I could match it with Carter, Brown, Seabrook, Bernier, Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, and Bergeron. Kostitsyn may yet surpass some of those names, but right now most people would take those guys ahead.
Not a bad pick by any means, but could've been better, as this was a rediculously good draft.

see, your still talking right now, we know that Kosty will get MUCH better as time goes on where as how many guys will get probably the same to total of points then this year from now on

 

[Gardebut30]

see, your still talking right now, we know that Kosty will get MUCH better as time goes on where as how many guys will get probably the same to total of points then this year from now on

Not sure if I understand fully what you're trying to say here, but it sounds like you believe Kostitsyn will surely get better while the rest of those guys have pretty much hit their peak.

If so, how can you possibly believe that let alone explain it?

 

[Habsfan18]

another nice assist so far tonight.

This kid has awesome vision and great passing skills.

 

[Rahan]

I just don't understand how he can be a bad pick just because he started playing in the NHL at 22 years old. It's pretty common for euros to start playing in the NHL at 22,23 and older and that doesn't make them bad picks. Kostitsyn is awesome.

 

[hototogisu]

I just don't understand how he can be a bad pick just because he started playing in the NHL at 22 years old.

1,100+ posts and you still don't understand the number one rule of HFboards?

 

[Wats]

Yeah Kaststitsyn is just awsome and I believe he is one of the big reasons for the Habs role of late.

BTW-This thread is turning into something that should be in the Habs board imo.

 

[TheHoser]

He should develop into more of a goalscorer once he figures out the NHL game a little more - he still has trouble getting himself in position to use his lethal wrister, although he's improving every game, and his passing skills are top notch.

GREAT PLAYER!

 

[habsfansam]

I fail to see how pointing out names of players, all but one picked after Kostitsyn, even up to 20 picks later, shows anything. I mean, for those players mentioned I could match it with Carter, Brown, Seabrook, Bernier, Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, and Bergeron. Kostitsyn may yet surpass some of those names, but right now most people would take those guys ahead.

Not a bad pick by any means, but could've been better, as this was a rediculously good draft.

Hey mate,

This isn't a shot at you, just thought I'd toss out a little bit of statistical background for this discussion (... and, yeah for anyone who cares to toss it out there, I know that stats don't measure all of anybody's presence on the ice, so please leave the "Captain Obvious" post at home).

I ran through the 1st round 2003 draft and ran career nhl stats (anyone know a good way to post a decent table in the forum?) for those that have played in the nhl - and for the sake of not comparing apples and oranges I've prettymuch left MA Fleury out of this. If you take career points per game average and re-rank, the draft goes like this:

Draft Position NAME PPG Career AVG RANK
2 ERIC STAAL 0.82 1
5 THOMAS VANEK 0.79 2
19 RYAN GETZLAF 0.68 3
6 MILAN MICHALEK 0.62 4
3 NATHAN HORTON 0.62 5
9 DION PHANEUF 0.62 6
4 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV 0.61 7
16 STEVE BERNIER 0.60 8
17 ZACH PARISE 0.56 9
11 JEFF CARTER 0.53 10
28 COREY PERRY 0.50 11
24 MIKE RICHARDS 0.47 12
29 PATRICK EAVES 0.45 13
10 ANDREI KASTSITSYN 0.44 14
13 DUSTIN BROWN 0.39 15
15 ROBERT NILSSON 0.37 16
14 BRENT SEABROOK 0.36 17
27 JEFF TAMBELLINI 0.28 18
23 RYAN KESLER 0.28 19
7 RYAN SUTER 0.26 20
20 BRENT BURNS 0.24 21
22 MARC-ANTOINE POULIOT 0.23 22
25 ANTHONY STEWART 0.20 23
8 BRAYDON COBURN 0.18 24
18 ERIC FEHR 0.12 25
30 SHAWN BELLE 0.11 26
21 MARK STUART 0.11 27
1 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 0.00 28
12 HUGH JESSIMAN 0.00 29
26 BRIAN BOYLE 0.00 30


If you re-rank according to 2006-07 points per game average you get:

Draft Position NAME PPG 2006-07 AVG RANK
5 THOMAS VANEK 1.00 1
2 ERIC STAAL 0.85 2
6 MILAN MICHALEK 0.85 3
3 NATHAN HORTON 0.74 4
17 ZACH PARISE 0.74 5
19 RYAN GETZLAF 0.68 6
9 DION PHANEUF 0.64 7
10 ANDREI KASTSITSYN 0.63 8
11 JEFF CARTER 0.56 9
28 COREY PERRY 0.55 10
16 STEVE BERNIER 0.53 11
13 DUSTIN BROWN 0.53 12
24 MIKE RICHARDS 0.53 13
27 JEFF TAMBELLINI 0.50 14
4 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV 0.48 15
29 PATRICK EAVES 0.41 16
23 RYAN KESLER 0.33 17
7 RYAN SUTER 0.29 18
20 BRENT BURNS 0.29 19
14 BRENT SEABROOK 0.26 20
22 MARC-ANTOINE POULIOT 0.26 21
15 ROBERT NILSSON 0.25 22
18 ERIC FEHR 0.21 23
8 BRAYDON COBURN 0.20 24
30 SHAWN BELLE 0.11 25
25 ANTHONY STEWART 0.10 26
21 MARK STUART 0.09 27
1 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 0.00 28
12 HUGH JESSIMAN 0.00 29
26 BRIAN BOYLE 0.00 30

Granted most folks will want to talk about career production thus far (where AK does fall significantly behind - as we will see), however that's hardly fair to any prospect heading into organizations that are either deep or believe in bringing prospects along slowly, especially when we talk about players just as they begin to enter the NHL. The following compares the same prospects based on career nhl point production... AK is way down the list, however, most of the guys ahead of him have significantly higher games played.

Draft Position Name NHL PTS RANK
2 ERIC STAAL 194 1
3 NATHAN HORTON 124 2
5 THOMAS VANEK 122 3
4 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV 118 4
6 MILAN MICHALEK 96 5
9 DION PHANEUF 96 6
19 RYAN GETZLAF 90 7
17 ZACH PARISE 87 8
11 JEFF CARTER 72 9
13 DUSTIN BROWN 72 10
28 COREY PERRY 66 11
24 MIKE RICHARDS 64 12
29 PATRICK EAVES 58 13
16 STEVE BERNIER 56 14
14 BRENT SEABROOK 51 15
23 RYAN KESLER 44 16
20 BRENT BURNS 42 17
7 RYAN SUTER 38 18
15 ROBERT NILSSON 21 19
10 ANDREI KASTSITSYN 12 20
22 MARC-ANTOINE POULIOT 11 21
27 JEFF TAMBELLINI 11 22
8 BRAYDON COBURN 9 23
25 ANTHONY STEWART 4 24
18 ERIC FEHR 3 25
21 MARK STUART 3 26
30 SHAWN BELLE 1 27
1 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 0 28
12 HUGH JESSIMAN 0 29
26 BRIAN BOYLE 0 30

So, all this is food for discussion, but I will say that I'm happy with the pick. While AK hasn't had the overall production of many of the players taken before and after him, I see his skill level on the ice and his Points-per-game scoring in his current stint with the Habs and I see a guy taken exactly where he should have been taken. Hopefully we can review this draft class again in five years and see him move up these lists... in the meantime, I'll just sit around and watch him feed Plekanec the puck for goal after sweet goal.

 

[RandV]

see, your still talking right now, we know that Kosty will get MUCH better as time goes on where as how many guys will get probably the same to total of points then this year from now on

Actually, right before the part you bolded, I did say Kostitsyn could surpass them

And habsfansam, I'm not saying he's a bad pick by any means, just that in such a deep draft and picking that high it could've been a better pick. Though that does happen every year. For the stat rankings, first of all any PPG rating is a bit iffy with Kostytsin, as he's played so few games. And even while 11 points in 16 games is good, you could also look at it that he has 1 goal in 16 games, or a 1/4 of his points came in one game. He's got a lower PPG total, but I'd say a guy like Dustin Brown, having played in every game so far with 75-15-25-40 on the year, is having a much better season.

Also, you're just looking at point totals. This gies a huge advantage to scorers over dmen, like Suter or Seabrook, or guys who play a more complete game like Brown, Richards, Kesler, etc.

 

[Mackee]

The draft is a crapshoot. Sure it could have been a better pick. It could have been a worse pick too. If Andrei continues to progress like he did this year, the selection at #10 will be warranted.

Of course because of his massive hype brought on by many Hab fans and the fact that he's only now beginning to emerge instead of right away (as all good prospects are supposed to do here on HF) he'll always be in the lower tier of his draft class.

 

[LeafsrGods*]

Yeah Kaststitsyn is just awsome and I believe he is one of the big reasons for the Habs role of late.

BTW-This thread is turning into something that should be in the Habs board imo.

o man you gotta be kidding me, Kostitsyn is not the reson your here, its because of Halak that your having a run right now...

 

[LeafsrGods*]

So, all this is food for discussion, but I will say that I'm happy with the pick. While AK hasn't had the overall production of many of the players taken before and after him, I see his skill level on the ice and his Points-per-game scoring in his current stint with the Habs and I see a guy taken exactly where he should have been taken. Hopefully we can review this draft class again in five years and see him move up these lists... in the meantime, I'll just sit around and watch him feed Plekanec the puck for goal after sweet goal.

umm dude, you also added some goaltenders in taht list, which means you were careless in recon who was in it, and in reason your were particularly fond of Andrei so you put goaltenders in them also.....what a joke

 

[Ginoro]

He said one of the reasons and he's right, don't even try to argue with that, the 2nd line is doing very good since he's been put there...

 

[LeafsrGods*]

Exactly...I don't really see him scoring 40 goals in the NHL. But he got the upside to do 30 goals each year for several years with his very good wirstshot and he got a very good on-ice vision and playmaking abilities to reach 40-45 assists.

umm, let me give you a stat, in which your thoughts upon Andrei future would immedialty turn...he has 1 goal in 16 games this season, nevertheless he has 9 assists...and by the likes of those kind of stats, he is definatley not even close to a 30 goal scorer, get that thorugh your head....your way overating this guy

 

[LeafsrGods*]

He said one of the reasons and he's right, don't even try to argue with that, the 2nd line is doing very good since he's been put there...

guess your right....nevertheless Halak is awe-inspiring as well

 

[LeafsrGods*]

Yeah and after last season Higgins was a better pick then Semin. At that stage he was better. Does it mean he's still a better pick? No. Wait till 2008-2009 then we can judge.

I believe Semin is better, not just because he is Russian, but he is freakishly deadly to play against.....

 

[LeafsrGods*]

If the Habs can made some good decision in a few years, Kostitsyn would be able to put 75pts easily in the NHL. Since 3 games he was our best forward and sometimes the best on both teams.

wow , now your way too overating this kid too much, i believe a person on this thread has said 50 points? I think 50-60 points is what Andrei has the potential to do.......

 

[montreal]

o man you gotta be kidding me, Kostitsyn is not the reson your here, its because of Halak that your having a run right now...

Says the leafs fan, yes please tell me more about my team. For the record it's been a total team effort for the most part, not Halak or any other one player can take sole credit for winning 6 of the last 7 games. Kostitsyn has easily been one of our best forwards, he's set up many plays with some impressive passes. Right now he's not shooting much but he's creating offense every game while finally playing solid in his own end. Halak has been good lately especially at home, Plekanec has been good, Higgins, Komisarek, Lats (leads the team in goals in March) Lapierre, Ryder, Kostitsyn all have been good of late.

 

[Mackee]

Says the leafs fan, yes please tell me more about my team. For the record it's been a total team effort for the most part, not Halak or any other one player can take sole credit for winning 7 of the last 8 games. Kostitsyn has easily been one of our best forwards, he's set up many plays with some impressive passes. Right now he's not shooting much but he's creating offense every game while finally playing solid in his own end. Halak has been good lately especially at home, Plekanec has been good, Higgins, Komisarek, Lats (leads the team in goals in March) Lapierre, Ryder, Kostitsyn all have been good of late.

Absolutely. Halak hasn't really stolen us any games, but rather he's been very solid. The whole team is beginning to turn it around. I believe all of Kostitsyn's points have come since his last recall as well.

 

[montreal]

Absolutely. Halak hasn't really stolen us any games, but rather he's been very solid. The whole team is beginning to turn it around. I believe all of Kostitsyn's points have come since his last recall as well.

Yes they have, all of his points have come in his 2nd call up, and he's currently on a 5 game points streak with 7 points over that span. In his 2nd callup, now at 11 games, he's had points in all but 4 games as well as the game winning Shootout goal.

 

[LeafsrGods*]

dudes, you guys are really overtaing this guy alot....

 

[VanNistelrooy]

dudes, you guys are really overtaing this guy alot....

Says the guy who have LEAFS ARE GODS in his nickname...

 

[Squeaky]

Says the guy who have LEAFS ARE GODS in his nickname...

Same guy who just said he prefers Halak to Price in a different thread, since Halak is big enough to cover the net. Nevermind that Price is like 4 inches taller than Halak.