Speculation: Andersen in Vezina Convo?

jrgtml67

Registered User
Sep 12, 2011
5,457
945
If he isnt thats insane. Showed his #s tonight. Top 3 in league.

25wins 5shootout wins..2.66 GAA and a .921SV% whilst facing the most shots league wide by a big margin. He has to be considered. Oh and 4 shutouts.

Andrei Vas #s are skewed it seems.

31wins 2.28GAA and .929 SV% however has faced 1377 shots against..Freddy you ask 1505...almost 200 more. Vas has 7 shutouts insane.

Why skewed? Not to takeaway from those beaut numbers but the leafs dont have a Hedman...yet (think Morgan will be elite). But also Tampa was scoring at a rabid pace prior to a week or so before the AsG. Proof? I play fantasy hockey and have seen Kuch and Stammer free fall out of the top points. Infact since the Asg they havent been so hot. Brayden Point has been.

Anyway Vase deserves to be in the convo.

The others...Rask, Rinne and Helleybuck. Smith has fallen out since the Asg as well.

But my huge point is Rask...good D on the bruins...as a team. We saw it several games ago. Rinne has the best D in the league in front of him. Helleybuck is the closest in comparision. His numbers echoe Andersens almost exactly.

What it comes down to? Playoffs..who takes their team deepest..and on accord of their play not the team infront.

Crappy side note..Andersen got snubbed in ASG because MTL had to send 1 rep and Price got it due to his history of play.

Rant over...just upset I havent heard a TV or radio station mention it once.
 

Razz

Registered User
Jan 23, 2011
4,457
719
Mississauga
He's getting there but not yet. That October really hurt his stats and it's been a steady climb since then. If he continues on this pace and goes on a run to close out the year, then absolutely he'll start getting serious consideration. Not going to be easy to catch up to Vasilevskiy and Rinne though. Rask has been incredible as well.

You never know though, the Leafs have a pretty nice schedule to close out the season with lots of bottom teams, more home games than road games and no western road trips.

Buffalo x4
Florida x2
Detroit x2
Montreal x2

Lol...
 

cookie

Fresh From The Oven
Nov 24, 2009
6,922
1,425
Oven then stomach
As an aside from the pure stats-based discussions Vezina conversations get into, Andersen's puck playing ability seems to be tailor-made for our team. Providing our young defenders with the opportunity to not be plastered through the boards during forechecks is helping keep them healthy, affecting opposition's tendencies with respects to dumping the puck and his generally being safer outside the net than most NHL goalies is super. He'd be in the Hart conversations had McElhinney not played out of his own mind.
 

jrgtml67

Registered User
Sep 12, 2011
5,457
945
Well thanks for the reply finally lol surprised at lack of talk.

My point was though..ive watched Rask..and frankly he has been solid BUT the Bruins team D is stingy asf. Great D team as well as Nashville. Unfair really. If you simply take shots against, and wins etc. From that take high grade A saves...I think Andersen should be in it. Take october out of this and hes the top goalie in the league since that point. I know because theyve shown that on TV. So thats why its irritating no one has mentioned Vezina.
 

jrgtml67

Registered User
Sep 12, 2011
5,457
945
Curious who are the other 2?

Mine are Vase and Rinne...Rask is right there as well as Helleybuck. But tbh Helley lets in a lot of weak ones from highlights ive seen. And Vase at the Asg was terrible and looks like ditto since that time. In fact i could see the tampa slide from watching the asg. Kuch and Stammer looked off...while point looked gr8. Fast fwd till now...the 2 stars have stunk while Points been the hottest bolt. Weird...even Smith...he was kinda messing around but now is a holy goalie since. Rinne was a wall..and it continues.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
11,156
3,660
He is 13'th in HDSV% with goalies that have played 1000 minutes so far this season.
(high danger save percentage)

  1. bishop
  2. brobosky
  3. crawford
  4. vasilevskiy
  5. rinne
  6. rask
  7. lundqvist
  8. allen
  9. m jones
  10. schneider
  11. elliot
  12. quick
  13. freddy
 

jrgtml67

Registered User
Sep 12, 2011
5,457
945
If thats the case our D isnt as bad as many propose. To which ive said its our Team D as a whole. Which is also why I could see us trade and sign Nash.
 

BayStreetBully

Registered User
Oct 25, 2007
8,200
1,960
Toronto
Not as of yet. Probably not this year at all. But I haven’t liked a Leaf goalie so much since Cujo and Belfour. Finally a goalie worth chanting over.

I don’t need the Vezina. Just win our hearts in the playoffs.
 

jrgtml67

Registered User
Sep 12, 2011
5,457
945
Well said...though I disagree with no yet. Say he gets us to the conference final and ill use last yr as an example. We took a sure sweep to 7 games he was huge. Now if we make the right moves in the next 2.5 weeks we should be better suited to go deeper. Depending who we get is huge...2nd is IF we go in HOT and he is HOT then i can see us going that far. Past cup winners have 2 huge things always..the goalie thats the hottest while going into the post season on fire..just like Pitts last 2 yrs..esp last yr. Came from near 5 or 6th finished just behind Caps (if i remember right) goalie hot..won it all.

But anyway do agree nice to chant a goalies name...what a trade Bernier and junk really for Andersen
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,898
Toronto
He is 13'th in HDSV% with goalies that have played 1000 minutes so far this season.
(high danger save percentage)

  1. bishop
  2. brobosky
  3. crawford
  4. vasilevskiy
  5. rinne
  6. rask
  7. lundqvist
  8. allen
  9. m jones
  10. schneider
  11. elliot
  12. quick
  13. freddy
Very selective choosing of a stat.

He's 6th in dSV% (gap between expected between xSV% and SV%) and is 2nd in GSAA. Which factor in HDSV% and are better measures of goalie performance of guys who have played 1500 minutes. 1000 minutes for a goalie at this point is only split usage.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
11,156
3,660
Very selective choosing of a stat.

He's 6th in dSV% (gap between expected between xSV% and SV%) and is 2nd in GSAA. Which factor in HDSV% and are better measures of goalie performance of guys who have played 1500 minutes. 1000 minutes for a goalie at this point is only split usage.

I consider the HDSV% stat to be arguably the top goalie stat...

1000+ minutes played and the goalies I listed are all starters...
  • 23rd ~ low danger save percentage
  • 3 rd ~ medium danger save percentage
  • 13'th ~ high danger save percentage
I dont believe in GSAA (goalie war stat) or any "war stat" in hockey, the war stat claimed Marner was our least valuable player last season, from corsica...

Carey Price is 32'nd ~ high danger save percentage
 
Last edited:

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,898
Toronto
I consider the HDSV% stat to be arguably the top goalie stat...

1000+ minutes played and the goalies I listed are all starters...
  • 23rd ~ low danger save percentage
  • 3 rd ~ medium danger save percentage
  • 13'th ~ high danger save percentage
I dont believe in GSAA (goalie war stat) or any "war stat" in hockey, the war stat claimed Marner was our least valuable player last season, from corsica...

Carey Price is 32'nd ~ high danger save percentage
GSAA isn't a WAR Stat, its basically just how much a goalie is beating his xGA in raw numbers and is similar dxSV%.

The reasons is GSAA is higher than his dxSV% is because he has faced significantly more shots.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
11,156
3,660
GSAA isn't a WAR Stat, its basically just how much a goalie is beating his xGA in raw numbers and is similar dxSV%.

The reasons is GSAA is higher than his dxSV% is because he has faced significantly more shots.

What GSAA Does Not Do Well

  • Goalies that play more games will accumulate more goals saved. If the stat was expressed as GSAA/per 60 minutes, it would be even more accurate. You would have to turn it into a percentage, though. Only goalies that have played a certain number of games would be able to qualify.
  • It does not take penalty killing into account. On average this season in the NHL, goalies have seen a 4.4% drop in save percentage while on the penalty kill compared to even strength. This is a major problem for some goalies that play for a team that is constantly killing penalties. Undisciplined teams will have goalies with a lower save percentage and a lower GSAA as a result.
  • It does not take fatigue into account. Saves that are made after the 30 shot mark should be worth more, because goalies that face more shots than the league average will be more tired, and will make less saves due to the poor quality of the team in front of them giving up more scoring attempts.
  • It also does not take shot quality into account. This can be related to the number of penalties a certain team commits, or even a team’s quality of defence, but that would be very difficult for any statistic to quantify.
its considered a goalie war stat from what i have read.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,898
Toronto
What GSAA Does Not Do Well

  • Goalies that play more games will accumulate more goals saved. If the stat was expressed as GSAA/per 60 minutes, it would be even more accurate. You would have to turn it into a percentage, though. Only goalies that have played a certain number of games would be able to qualify.
  • It does not take penalty killing into account. On average this season in the NHL, goalies have seen a 4.4% drop in save percentage while on the penalty kill compared to even strength. This is a major problem for some goalies that play for a team that is constantly killing penalties. Undisciplined teams will have goalies with a lower save percentage and a lower GSAA as a result.
  • It does not take fatigue into account. Saves that are made after the 30 shot mark should be worth more, because goalies that face more shots than the league average will be more tired, and will make less saves due to the poor quality of the team in front of them giving up more scoring attempts.
  • It also does not take shot quality into account. This can be related to the number of penalties a certain team commits, or even a team’s quality of defence, but that would be very difficult for any statistic to quantify.
If anything then, dxSV% should be the stat you value the most, as it basically shows how much a goalie is beating there xSV%, which is much more important overall than overall HDSV%, which xSV% obviously accounts for. It just appears you are again choosing the most negative possible stat to portray something against a Leaf player.
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
20,913
16,749
Skövde, Sweden
In terms of judging which goalie has had the best season, GSAA makes all kinds of sense in my opinion. You want to include the work load, as that is definitely a factor in having a good season.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
It's easier to get a sense of where he places in the vezina conversation if you are first able to admit when he has bad games......like the 2 games before last night.

And remember that every time you mention all the shots he faces, that those likely help his sv%, not hurt it.
 
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Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,783
21,959
I doubt he wins the Vezina but as long as he gets more votes than Reimer, I'm happy.
 

Buds17

Registered User
Nov 29, 2015
8,221
3,343
IIRC, the Vezina is awarded based on regular season play only. A bit silly IMO. Certainly believe Andersen could - and probably should - be in the conversation right now. (nominee, not winner)
 
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Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
77,840
51,501
It's easier to get a sense of where he places in the vezina conversation if you are first able to admit when he has bad games......like the 2 games before last night.

And remember that every time you mention all the shots he faces, that those likely help his sv%, not hurt it.

You do realize all Vezina winners will have bad games...

Gotta be tough to have staked out an anti-Freddy position so eary on then see him have a season like this.
 
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Buds17

Registered User
Nov 29, 2015
8,221
3,343
It's easier to get a sense of where he places in the vezina conversation if you are first able to admit when he has bad games......like the 2 games before last night.

And remember that every time you mention all the shots he faces, that those likely help his sv%, not hurt it.

The high amount of shots faced only help his SV% if he stops them though.
 

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