And Now they Get Down to Business

Discussion in 'The Business of Hockey' started by HotToddy, Feb 10, 2005.

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  1. HotToddy

    HotToddy Registered User

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    I’ve always maintained that this thing gets settled Jan 2006, however that being said the media is way off mark declaring the season dead and done.

    The truth is the negotiating has never really begun and if I’m a betting man I would say that this weekend will see the first significant movement since the lockout began.

    Beyond the media doom and gloom there are some important points to remember;

    -This is a high priced game of chicken, the reason this lockout has been such a hard fight is that this is a hard CBA to settle on. The league has never had a workable system that benefits both sides. As such there is a lot to lose and a lot to gain in these negotiations. Neither side can afford to make mistakes in these deals, neither can afford to give away ground and both sides no the first to blink loses. I guarantee both sides have better offers in their pocket, the problem is both sides want to see the others best offer first. This weekend maybe someone blinks.

    - The owners learned something from the MLB’s last labour stoppage and that is this. Always give the other side an option that is far more detestable than the option you want. Ever wonder why suddenly linkage is the big deal for the owners. It reminds of the Minnesota contraction talk that dominated the last labour talks in MLB. Linkage is ridiculous concept for the NHL, revenues just aren’t high enough or certain enough for any sane hockey player to agree to it. So if your an owner you press this point over and over until a restrictive cap of some kind suddenly seems palatable.

    - Remember the last go around, nothing was settled until AFTER the season was declared dead. Anyone remember the famous Elston cartoon with a simple coffin inscribed NHL. The next day was the breakthrough and you had the Elston cartoon with the hockey glove punching through the coffin. Today’s press conferences might just be the last chest pumping, feather dance before the mating season.

    -Pressure and stress creates deals. Don’t for a second believe that the players, owners, Gary Bettman or Bob Goodenow want this season cancelled. Bettman and the league didn’t set a Jan deadline like it did in the last lockout because they wanted the players feet in the boiling water as long as is humanely possible. There’s a good chance that the season will be cancelled but only because the gulf is too wide to be carried in one deadline.

    That’s why it’s this weekend or January 2006.
     
  2. Hopefully its replacements by October and union caving by January.
     
  3. HAWKSWINHAWKSWIN

    HAWKSWINHAWKSWIN Registered User

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    January 2006.... or maybe 2007...
     
  4. vanlady

    vanlady Registered User

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    I agree with you up until the last point. I think you may see the PA bring one more counter at the last minute that would be palatable to the league. Daly looked to ruffled, I have never seen him the way he was today, he actually blew a gasket on the McCown show this afternoon.
     
  5. Beauty eh?

    Beauty eh? Not sure if serious.

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    Wha? What happened?
     
  6. vanlady

    vanlady Registered User

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    McCown quoted Saskin from the press conference about this offer being the NHL's 'last best and final offer' and that the NHL said it was take it or leave it, and Daly lost it all right. He freaked and said that it wasn't true.
     
  7. StanTheMan

    StanTheMan Registered User

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    pullin' a Goodnow

    anyway, thank god this is almost over either way. apparently i'm a hockey addict because i just can seem to stop checking everywhere several times a day to see if there's any good news.
     
  8. SENSible1*

    SENSible1* Guest

    Did anyone else hear Daly on McCown's show?

    I'd really like to hear a less biased assessment of how things went.
     
  9. Brent Burns Beard

    Brent Burns Beard DontTouchMyDonskoi!

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    i heard it .. he just lost his cool for a moment. his usual matter of fact style was replaced by "what have the PA done in the last 3 months, i have to ask" ... in a very sharp and quick tone. the tone of someone who has been holding back for some time.

    it was noticable, but i wouldnt call it blowing a gasket.

    dr
     
  10. CarlRacki

    CarlRacki Registered User

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    Yeah, he was definitely unhappy when told what Saskin said, saying something to the effect of "I absolutely, categorically deny that," but saying he blew a gasket seems a bit strong.
     
  11. SENSible1*

    SENSible1* Guest

    Thanks DR
     
  12. vanlady

    vanlady Registered User

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    Even McCown commented on Daly's loss of cool. Has anyone here heard of Daly getting upset like that in front of the press? I have never seen it, I have seen Garry get cranked but never Daly. So ya I would say mr calm cool and collected lost it for a second, aka blew a gasket.
     
  13. Leaf Army

    Leaf Army Registered User

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    This is very true.
     
  14. WHARF1940

    WHARF1940 Registered User

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    Awesome post, Hot Toddy, now if only some of my not so informed friends would grasp what you are saying, I could stop getting into arguments at work!!!
     
  15. Volcanologist

    Volcanologist Used Register

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    Daly's hissy fit aside, I think that the owners probably don't want to miss any more games. I think they'll try to set things in motion during the spring and summer to try and get impasse declared.

    They will really try to get hockey started on time for the fall, IMO.
     
  16. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    In September Linkage was not even a part of the offer it was all about a Hard Cap .. Now all of a sudden linkage is in, and vital ..

    Linkage is like making the NHL players into commission sales people .. No other sport do you see that .. Players agree to a contract based on a hard amount .. Not a contract that can go up and down based on how much Revenue the owners make ..

    Linkage will may be just that a Red Herring to side track the players .. If it is removed from the final CBA, the NHL has gotten the players to think they won on the big clause, as long as the min /max Hard Cap range is in the deal ..
     
  17. SENSible1*

    SENSible1* Guest


    The NHL has ALWAYS been asking for "cost certainty" AKA a linkage between salaries and revenues.
     
  18. CarlRacki

    CarlRacki Registered User

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    That's simply not true. Linkage was always part of the NHL's deal. The cap figure was always to be tied to a percentage of revenues.

    Linkage is also the way it works in the NFL and NBA.
    In the NFL, the cap is set at 63 percent of "Defined gross revenues." In the NBA, it was set at 55 percent of "basketball related income" prior to this year, when it is now set at 57 percent of "basketball related income."
     
  19. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Catch tonights TSN sportsdesk the panel talks all about the Linkage of Revenue to player costs .. Gord Miller discusses this with Burke and macKenzie

    Cost Certainty was all about a hard cap oriiginally .. The figures tossed out as the Hard Cap range where based on the same 55% figure .. but static at the time of the proposal ... In the NHL's counter proposal to the NHLPA's Dec 9 offer it linked Revenue to Player Salaries that would go up and down with league revenue ..

    Here is the audio link from TSN on the topic of tonight discussion ..

    Where to from here?

    and the TSN page http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/ .. Its in the audio section ..
     
  20. SPARTAKUS*

    SPARTAKUS* Guest

    I don't blame him for losing his cool. When you are dealing with clowns like Goodenow and Saskin anyone would lose their cool.
     
  21. CarlRacki

    CarlRacki Registered User

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    From the NHL's December offer:

    "Accordingly, we propose that the Players, as a group, receive initially 54% of all Hockey-Related Revenues (as defined), which Revenues, as you know for 2003-04 are forecasted to be $2.1 billion ("Revenues" is a "projection" because the financial reporting for last season has not been completed). Fifty-four percent (54%) represents an approximate $17 million (U.S.) increase over our prior offer of 53.2% and demonstrates the NHL's willingness to compromise the cost, so long as that cost is known. "

    http://nhlcbanews.com/news/nhlresponse121404.html

    So, as you see, the NHL's first two offers (September and December) both contained linkage.
     
  22. futurcorerock

    futurcorerock Registered User

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    Gee... you're lucky by-comparison to have people to discuss this with. All my friends rely on me to funnel them information about the lockout. Half could care less about hockey.

    That's what being an NHL diehard is like in Ohio
     
  23. SENSible1*

    SENSible1* Guest

    Miller spouting off is not proof of anything other than his abilty to misunderstand and then misinform.
     
  24. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    But are sure we are talking about the same thing here ... If you re-read my post .. I am not disputing the 54% ..But the question is that number static or dynamic ...

    Anyone can take 2.1 billion multiply it by 54% to deternmine the Hard Cap figure .. and end it there .. However now I am taking about that 54% Cap figure changing in the future as revenue chances .. making it dynamic ..

    Notice how this article and post focuses on costs and does not clarify if Revenue in 2006 and 2007 changes that the Hard cap range will reflect the change .. .
     
  25. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Now you are questioning the integrity of TSN and its reporting .. Brian Burke and Bob MacKenzie have been following this closely and are you saying the whole panel is wrong ???

    I am just repeating what they said .. but I also do not ever remember linkage when the process started .. Now the NHLPA talks about 3 caps in the NHL system and when it started we all just talked about a Salary Hard Cap verses Soft Cap luxury tax and Linkage has not connection to a Soft Cap .. that is simply a fine or penalty for exceeding a propose cap figure ..
     
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