Speculation: Anaheim and Expansion - Why the Ducks are in great shape

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WhatTheDuck

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The following analysis of the Ducks expansion situation is intended to expel some of the myths and misunderstandings regarding their standing for the upcoming ED, and explain why the Ducks are actually in much better shape than a lot teams.

There have been a lot of misinformed posts and blogs on the subject who seem to think the Ducks will be forced to lose a vital player for free, which is far from the case and here's why.

The first misunderstanding seems to be that people think there's actually a chance in hell that the Ducks would allow Kevin Bieksa to take up one of the protection slots due to his NMC. The Ducks will be able to use one of two avenues to ensure that doesn't happen.

Bieksa demanded the clause because he wants to stay in Anaheim to play out his contract for a contender, and does not want to move his family. The second that the Ducks threaten to buy out the final year of his deal, the NMC basically loses all leverage. Bieksa's odds of remaining in Anaheim are very strong if he waives his NMC, as Vegas has no use for him. If he doesn't waive, he's 100% leaving Anaheim on a buyout. It should be pretty clear that waiving the NMC is what's best for both the player and team.

Either way, the Ducks can be prepared to have Bieksa's cap hit on the books whether they need to buy him out or not, but you can be absolutely certain he's not going to be taking up a protection slot over a better and younger player.


The other key mistake I see being made is the idea that the Ducks would protect 8 skaters and leave a key forward exposed. When you look at the Ducks depth chart, it's very clear to see that they can afford to part with a defenseman more than a vital forward. A guy like Jakub Silfverberg is not going anywhere.

Unlike many teams who are going to be forced to lose a good player no matter what, the Ducks can protect their entire core by making one trade. Dealing one Dman at season's end leaves the Ducks liable to lose nothing more than a depth piece.

Sami Vatanen makes the most sense to trade away. He's a legit top 4 RHD who will draw strong interest and a good return. It just so happens that his skillset/role is the easiest for the Ducks to replace internally.

I see Manson's name posted a lot, but there's absolutely no reason to think he'd ever be available. He has no peer in the Ducks system in terms of playing style, fits perfectly with both our top two D and he's very affordable. In contrast, Vatanen makes $4M more and has an NHL ready replacement ready to go in Montour. Pretty clear who would be expendable.

All common sense points to a Vatanen trade a season's end. That means the Ducks can protect - Gibson, Lindholm, Fowler, Manson, Getzlaf, Kesler, Silfverberg, Rakell, Perry, Cogliano + one more forward (either from a Vatanen trade or one of Kerdiles/Vermette). Left exposed would be, well nothing much at all - Vermette, Kerdiles, Megna, Boll, Bieksa.

So to the folks who think the Ducks are in such tough shape, I ask you this....What's so terrible about trading Vatanen for the best return possible, and losing a depth piece such as Kerdiles, Vermette or Megna to Vegas? There are teams in a lot worse situations than that.

Craig Button recently echoed these thoughts (as have most Ducks fans all season)
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/who-was-babcock-scouting-at-the-game-in-nashville~1126785

Being able to sit back and take offers on a valuable top 4 RHD and then protect your entire core doesn't sound like a very dire situation to me at all.
 

The Duck Knight

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This should be stapled to the top of the forum. I've typed shorter versions 100 times and yet it never seems to make a difference.

We'll still get another dozen threads in the next week demanding we trade Manson/Fowler because we have no choice.
 

tomd

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Another thought I brought up under the Vatanen thread was the idea that if LV really wanted Kerdiles then they could make an agreement with Anaheim not to select Vatanen (who Anaheim could then expose without fear) if the Ducks would expose Kerdiles instead.

As you correctly mentioned, LV would have very slim pickings if the Ducks traded Vatanen for a pick or ED exempt forward and then protected Kerdiles as their 7th forward. I suspect that GMBM is way ahead of us fans in making sure the Ducks come out of the ED with little damage done.
 

dracom

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Another thought I brought up under the Vatanen thread was the idea that if LV really wanted Kerdiles then they could make an agreement with Anaheim not to select Vatanen (who Anaheim could then expose without fear) if the Ducks would expose Kerdiles instead.

As you correctly mentioned, LV would have very slim pickings if the Ducks traded Vatanen for a pick or ED exempt forward and then protected Kerdiles as their 7th forward. I suspect that GMBM is way ahead of us fans in making sure the Ducks come out of the ED with little damage done.

There's zero reason for Vegas wanting Kerdiles over Vatanen. There's zero reason for them wanting Kerdiles at all.
 

The Duck Knight

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Another thought I brought up under the Vatanen thread was the idea that if LV really wanted Kerdiles then they could make an agreement with Anaheim not to select Vatanen (who Anaheim could then expose without fear) if the Ducks would expose Kerdiles instead.

As you correctly mentioned, LV would have very slim pickings if the Ducks traded Vatanen for a pick or ED exempt forward and then protected Kerdiles as their 7th forward. I suspect that GMBM is way ahead of us fans in making sure the Ducks come out of the ED with little damage done.

Makes zero sense for Vegas. If they traded Vatanen they would get a far better return than Kerdiles.

There's zero reason for Vegas wanting Kerdiles over Vatanen. There's zero reason for them wanting Kerdiles at all.

First sentence is right. The second is dead wrong. If the choices are Vermette/Kerdiles/Megna I'm taking Kerdiles without question as a Knight fan. He's young, cost controlled and still has a great chance to be a middle 6 wing who can play all situations.
 

WhatTheDuck

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Another thought I brought up under the Vatanen thread was the idea that if LV really wanted Kerdiles then they could make an agreement with Anaheim not to select Vatanen (who Anaheim could then expose without fear) if the Ducks would expose Kerdiles instead.

As you correctly mentioned, LV would have very slim pickings if the Ducks traded Vatanen for a pick or ED exempt forward and then protected Kerdiles as their 7th forward. I suspect that GMBM is way ahead of us fans in making sure the Ducks come out of the ED with little damage done.

I don't see that idea being realistic in the slightest, Vatanen is worth tons more than Kerdiles.
 

Crosbysux

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This should be stapled to the top of the forum. I've typed shorter versions 100 times and yet it never seems to make a difference.

We'll still get another dozen threads in the next week demanding we trade Manson/Fowler because we have no choice.

But... But... That means we have to give up more than just 1 prospect for him :cry: Lol, been saying the same thing. He's going to get a nice package and we're not getting fleeced in any trade. The only reason Ducks are entertaining the notion of trading him is the expansion draft, which is the only downside to this for the Ducks. With the number of teams that want a young, offensive PMD that's RH, top 4 and great on the PK/PP, that is signed for a reasonable contract, there's going to be a bidding war and we'll have a very nice PACKAGE of player/prospect/pick (unless we trade for Drouin, then we have to add).
 

Jumptheshark

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First part of your argument makes it sound that bieska has waived his NMC. ducks have no choice but to buy him out 48 hours after the season ends. They are lucky they have the cap space to do it


But I disagree with the ducks not losing A key player. Whether they go 7.3.1 or 4.4.1 they will either lose FW or D. Also with buying bieska out he is on a 35+ contract. I see a team coughing something good up for Fowler. But that is just me
 

The Duck Knight

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First part of your argument makes it sound that bieska has waived his NMC. ducks have no choice but to buy him out 48 hours after the season ends. They are lucky they have the cap space to do it


But I disagree with the ducks not losing A key player. Whether they go 7.3.1 or 4.4.1 they will either lose FW or D. Also with buying bieska out he is on a 35+ contract. I see a team coughing something good up for Fowler. But that is just me

Did you even read the OP? There is ZERO chance we go 4/4/1. We trade Vats and Bieksa waives. Vegas is left to pick from Vermette/Kerdiles/Megna/etc.
 

tomd

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I don't see that idea being realistic in the slightest, Vatanen is worth tons more than Kerdiles.

You are not understanding what I'm saying.

If Vatanen is traded for a pick or ED exempt player and the Ducks protect Kerdiles as the 7th forward then LV is basically left with Wagner, Vermette, or something less.

IF LV wants Kerdiles they could make a deal with Anaheim to agree NOT to select an exposed Vatanen if Anaheim would expose Kerdiles instead. What is so hard to understand about that? LV gets a player who otherwise would be protected and the Ducks get to keep Vatanen.
 

dracom

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You are not understanding what I'm saying.

If Vatanen is traded for a pick or ED exempt player and the Ducks protect Kerdiles as the 7th forward then LV is basically left with Wagner, Vermette, or something less.

IF LV wants Kerdiles they could make a deal with Anaheim to agree NOT to select an exposed Vatanen if Anaheim would expose Kerdiles instead. What is so hard to understand about that? LV gets a player who otherwise would be protected and the Ducks get to keep Vatanen.

Again, Vegas is not going to take Kerdiles if Vats is available. Not sure why you think they would.
 

OrrNumber4

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The issue with trading away players to deal with the expansion draft is that people are ignoring that other teams are also dealing with expansion issues. Many teams are struggling with having to expose defensemen. Why would they be able to take on Vatanen, as well?
 

tomd

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Again, Vegas is not going to take Kerdiles if Vats is available. Not sure why you think they would.

Come on...this is not that hard.

I specifically said that LV would agree not to take Vatanen under the condition that Kerdiles was left exposed.

Geez...
 

MardyBum

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"In great shape"

Has to trade a top 4 dman to be able to protect your core.

Toronto, and i think NJ + Carolina are in great shape, the Ducks are like many other teams, will be okay if they make a trade.
 

WhatTheDuck

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Losing Vats is a hit and I do not see bieska waiving

If Bieksa doesn't waive the Ducks can just buy him out. But I've outlined my sound reasoning as to why he likely waives, what's your counter argument?

"In great shape"

Has to trade a top 4 dman to be able to protect your core.

Toronto, NJ, Carolina are in great shape, the Ducks are like many other teams, will be okay if they make a trade.

Could be a lot worse than trading a player who has a similar yet higher upside NHL replacement in house. Also no one is claiming the Ducks expansion situation is better than those teams, but it's a lot better than the clubs who are losing a good player no matter what - and a lot better than people are making it out to be.
 

dracom

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Come on...this is not that hard.

I specifically said that LV would agree not to take Vatanen under the condition that Kerdiles was left exposed.

Geez...

If Vats is exposed and so is Kerdiles, why in the world would Vegas want Kerdiles over Vats? You take the most valuable player possible, which would be Vats. There's just no logic in Vegas wanting a current AHLer who might become a decent 3rd liner over a current NHL top 4 RHD.
 

dracom

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"In great shape"

Has to trade a top 4 dman to be able to protect your core.

Toronto, NJ, Carolina are in great shape, the Ducks are like many other teams, will be okay if they make a trade.

We were going to have to trade a D at some point, the ED just pushes that timetable up. If we trade Vats for a forward, we're in great shape for the ED.
 

MardyBum

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We were going to have to trade a D at some point, the ED just pushes that timetable up. If we trade Vats for a forward, we're in great shape for the ED.

I agree, but you still need to make a trade before the exp draft so you don't lose a good player.

Teams like the Leafs can be adding players like Vatanen because they have extra spots available. They're the ones in great shape.
 

Chan790

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Come on...this is not that hard.

I specifically said that LV would agree not to take Vatanen under the condition that Kerdiles was left exposed.

Geez...

The problem is that the promise has no enforceable weight. Say Vegas agrees to it...then takes Vatanen anyways. The Ducks have no recourse...even the league would be like "sucks to be you."

The most you can do is include a punitive clause in an unrelated trade with Vegas, like Vegas trades you a 2nd if they take Vatanen instead of Kerdiles...and I'd wager they'd still take Vatanen because he's worth more than Kerdiles and an early 2nd.

Your proposed solution is not a solution at-all.
 

wintersej

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I'm sure Bieksa will waive. One of Vatanen of Fowler (if his UFA demands don't make the Ducks happy) will be moved for a somewhat dissapointing return (given how few teams only have an expansion slot on D sitting around unused).
 

tomd

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If Vats is exposed and so is Kerdiles, why in the world would Vegas want Kerdiles over Vats? You take the most valuable player possible, which would be Vats. There's just no logic in Vegas wanting a current AHLer who might become a decent 3rd liner over a current NHL top 4 RHD.

ok...I'll type this very slowly so you can comprehend it.

Kerdiles has the highest upside of any player that might be left exposed by the Ducks. LV has said they are going to draft young forwards so Kerdiles is a good choice for them unless they decide to go with Wagner who has almost no upside.

Now, assume for a minute that LV does want Kerdiles. If the Ducks trade Vatanen for a pick or a young ED exempt forward then they could protect Kerdiles as their 7th forward. In that situation, LV gets NEITHER Vatanen or Kerdiles. To avoid that outcome, LV agrees IN ADVANCE with Anaheim NOT to take Vatanen if the Ducks will expose Kerdiles. Ducks get to keep Vatanen (or trade him later without a gun to their head) and LV gets the young forward they want.

Is that really so hard? Please don't reply again that LV would take Vatanen over Kerdiles.
 

dracom

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I agree, but you still need to make a trade before the exp draft so you don't lose a good player.

Teams like the Leafs can be adding players like Vatanen because they have extra spots available. They're the ones in great shape.

And the Leafs have to trade something away to get Vats. Just because we will make a trade that actually helps in the long run doesn't mean we're not in good shape for the ED.
 
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